The Empire Strikes Back

As I’m sure you know, there’s an MRBI poll in the Times today that puts FF top of the pile for the first time since in about 5 years.  Polling figures, and the IPR projections, are as follows (usual pro-rata job on OTH/ULA etc);

Projected result	%	seats
FG	25.00%	51
LP	10.00%	19
FF	26.00%	46
SF	18.00%	25
ULA & SP *	3.38%	4
GP	1.00%	0
OTH*	16.62%	21
	100.00%	166

Well….

There are several very big moves from the previous MRBI, although it should be noted that this was taken in October, before the December Budget.   But even if you compare to the most recent RedC last month(and they usually don’t differ that much) FG and LP are down 4% and 3% respectively, whereas FF are up 5% and SF up 2%.   The combined ULA/SP/Oth column is up to 20%, although how those cards would fall is, as ever, hard to call.

But in terms of seats, well that’s probably the biggest story.  As you’ll have noticed before, there are certain thresholds for parties where, a but below they suffer badly, but if they get above them they surpassing the tipping point in a large number of consitituencies, and for FF that applies big time to this poll.  Whereas the January offering of 21% in RedC would have given them some 32 seats, the 26% here would be expected to give them 46.  Across the country, previuosly “wasted” votes of 15% or so in a 3-seater move up to 20% or so and take the last seat .

The main losers would, on these figures, be Labour. with their 10% returning a familiar 19 seats (they got 20 in 2002 and 2007 on a similar vote), although its noticable that a number of the seats FF pick up would otherwise be SF gains.  FG would be hit by the big drop in their vote, but not to the disproportionate level that their coalition colleagues would be.

But before I go, a few caveats.

One, as we know, this is pre-promissory note, taken on Monday-Tuesday.  hard to say what the effect of that is, and whether it will be lasting, but presumably there’s some significant effect.

Two, don’t knows are huge. 34%.  This is an enormous figure, and where they fall will be hugely influential.  One presumes the Sindo will continue banging on about the need for a new party (standing for what?) on foot of this.

Third, the “Others” is also very large, and will these voters transfer among such candidates, or come home to the parties on 2nd or 3rd transfers?

 

Answers to all 3?  Your guess is as good as mine.  Probably! 😉