Archive for December 2015
OK, not going to spend long on this tonight I’m afraid, beyond giving you the projections.
RedC, as you’re probably aware (given you follow this blog), have their final poll of 2015. Breakdown of the smaller parties is circulating on Twitter by the usual sources so I’ve run the projections in advance of the hard copy.
Again, in line with previous polls, Govt parties drifting up, and while FG/FF or FG/SF still the only combinations with the numbers, re-election the Govt is moving in the direction of ‘being in play’. Still a long way to go though, and values may go down as well as up… Labour will be hoping however that polling over the last 12 months indicates they will improve in the new year…the 4 polls in December 2014 saw them go from 6% to 5% (6-6-5-5, an average of 5.5%), however they averaged 7.5% in the next 4 polls in January/February (and 8.67% in the 3 polls of March). At 9%/15 seats they are pretty much in the zone they spent most of the last few decades – no Spring Tide/Gilmore Gale, but more perhaps than some may have dared hope for a few months back (a ‘Burton Bump’?). However, nothing is certain in politics, and they could lose this much easier than they won it.
FG will also be pleased, at 32% with a fragmentation of alternatives, it is, surely, impossible to see the next Govt being led by anyone but them, particularly with FF continuing to flounder. Some may hope this increase will build momentum, and see them move towards single party Govt, although that, too, seems unlikely. At the moment, at least…
FF/SF continue to battle it out, I suspect there will be no real daylight between them this side of the campaign proper. Both will be working non-stop on election strategy.
AAAPBP, Greens, SocDems & Renua all in the territory where they will claim their support is either hidden in OTH, DKs or the 3% margin of error. On these figures they are largely transfer fodder, with very few of their seats in what one could call the ‘safe zone’.
Anyways, gotta go.
First poll I have (since returning) is a B&A offering for Sunday Times. As I’ve pointed out previously, B&A have not had the General Election testing that the big 3 have, and without that track record are harder to judge. That said, their findings currently don’t differ much from the main companies.
Compared to recent polls, this is a good poll for FG and GP, OK for most others, and bad for SF, AAPBP & the SocDems.
Poll result and IPR projections as follows;
FG will be pleased and may be tempted to go earlier in the new year now, especially if Banking Inquiry difficulties gives them cover for that. Labour will see it in the light of polls that show some recovery for them, but less so than their Govt partners, and they will need to show the merit of their influence since 2011 if they are going to avoid losing half or more of their seats. Their strategy is clearly to argue that, while some other parties on the left may agree with them on certain issues (or go further), none of those are likely to be in Govt after the next election, and so they are the ones who could actually deliver (to some extent) on those policies. It may work with some, but these figures show that most of the 19% who voted Labour in 2011 remain to be convinced, and I suspect even two-thirds of that vote would represent a big recovery for them at this stage. As it is, they are still vulnerable to a small slippage that could lose them up to half of the seats even projected here.
My own money on current figures would be on a FG/FF govt, but recent polling on ‘preferred Govt’ showed a preference for the current coalition to continue (perhaps with outside support), and so LP will be doing their best to make the choice that stark. Support for the Govt isn’t high though (35% vs 56%) and so that preference appears based upon distaste for the alternatives, rather than widespread enthusiasm for the status quo.
SF won’t be especially happy with this poll, but they were perhaps overstated in the previous B&A poll, and they would still be looking at a big increase in seats were this result to be realised. But no chance of being in Govt for the centenary. FF continue to bob along at a consistent rate, I suspect they have a core vote that won’t move much, but there is little sign they are going to make any great recovery from 2011 at this stage.
The AAAPBPULAWYHY (I made some of that up…) have reverted to the c.4% they were at before the previous 8% B&A gave them. Given it’s unlikely that the combined SF and old ULA vote dropped 8% in one month, I suspect this is more a symptom of something amiss with the previous figures, rather than something more drastic. Their ability to show a united front (never their strength) will be tested further in the General Election.
This poll appears to have left some online SocDem supporters confused… Tens of retweets is always nice, but you need thousands of real-world 1st preference votes in your own constituency to be elected, and 1% of the national vote, if accurate, would be slightly less than their 3 TDs got in 2011, so they have to hope that this poll is a wrong ‘un, or that they can turn around their fortunes , otherwise they’ll be kicking their heels at the election counts with Renua.. Of course there’s the margin of error, but even if they got 3%, all that would do is make their 3 existing TDs safer than they are on these figures, and maybe put them in the mix for the last seat in 2-3 other constituencies. I suspect the lack of a leader (3 TDs, all of them co-leader, isn’t a model that might be termed ‘courageous’, perhaps even more so once the election starts). They may have to bite that bullet very shortly or find themselves very disappointed.
Otherwise, party leader ratings are largely negative for them all (except Ryan who many not have made much of an impression, and whose party poll well on this occasion), figures (satisfied/dis-) as follows;
Kenny 35/56 (-21%)
Burton 39/53 (-14%)
Martin 40/46 (-6%)
Adams 35/49 (-14%)
Anyways, that was longer than I intended. Hope you find it fun/interesting etc.
As you’ll have noticed (if you’ve been following this blog), I’ve not made any posts in over 2 years. A number of factors have contributed, both family and work related.
However, I continue to get requests (and traffic!), and have updated the base data (for my own interest more than anything else), and so I’ll recommence now (starting with the B&A poll released last night).
I’ll not be doing very in depth analysis (compared to last time anyway), I’ve just not got the time, but hope I’ll be as accurate in #GE16 as I was with my #GE11 prediction (if I didn’t think I would be, I’d not bother). In part it is to provide an alternative to weaker models which, (predictably IMO), have not been as accurate in the past, but which will nevertheless continue to be quoted as reliable.
Method used is as before, a combination of uniform swing in each party vote and in the non-vote of each party. Base adjusted for new constituencies and new parties and defections of candidates.
So, enjoy. Or read ‘em and weep. Whatever! 😉