Am back… (sorta)

As you’ll have noticed (if you’ve been following this blog), I’ve not made any posts in over 2 years. A number of factors have contributed, both family and work related.

However, I continue to get requests (and traffic!), and have updated the base data (for my own interest more than anything else), and so I’ll recommence now (starting with the B&A poll released last night).

I’ll not be doing very in depth analysis (compared to last time anyway), I’ve just not got the time, but hope I’ll be as accurate in #GE16 as I was with my #GE11 prediction (if I didn’t think I would be, I’d not bother). In part it is to provide an alternative to weaker models which, (predictably IMO), have not been as accurate in the past, but which will nevertheless continue to be quoted as reliable.

Method used is as before, a combination of uniform swing in each party vote and in the non-vote of each party. Base adjusted for new constituencies and new parties and defections of candidates.

So, enjoy. Or read ‘em and weep. Whatever! 😉
D