Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Am back… (sorta)

with 4 comments

As you’ll have noticed (if you’ve been following this blog), I’ve not made any posts in over 2 years. A number of factors have contributed, both family and work related.

However, I continue to get requests (and traffic!), and have updated the base data (for my own interest more than anything else), and so I’ll recommence now (starting with the B&A poll released last night).

I’ll not be doing very in depth analysis (compared to last time anyway), I’ve just not got the time, but hope I’ll be as accurate in #GE16 as I was with my #GE11 prediction (if I didn’t think I would be, I’d not bother). In part it is to provide an alternative to weaker models which, (predictably IMO), have not been as accurate in the past, but which will nevertheless continue to be quoted as reliable.

Method used is as before, a combination of uniform swing in each party vote and in the non-vote of each party. Base adjusted for new constituencies and new parties and defections of candidates.

So, enjoy. Or read ‘em and weep. Whatever! 😉

Written by Dotski

December 13, 2015 at 6:46 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

4 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Hah! Like a bad politician, returning to social media only when there’s a whiff of an election in the air 🙂 Good to have you back 🙂


    December 14, 2015 at 11:23 am

    • Thanks…more a stink than a whiff at this stage! 😉 Analysis pieces will be somewhat shorter than before but thought would share projections given am doing for myself already.


      December 14, 2015 at 11:26 am

  2. Welcome back! great to read you again

    David Lundy (@DaithiLundy)

    December 14, 2015 at 11:31 am

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: