Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Storms ahead.

with 2 comments

First poll I have (since returning) is a B&A offering for Sunday Times.  As I’ve pointed out previously, B&A have not had the General Election testing that the big 3 have, and without that track record are harder to judge. That said, their findings currently don’t differ much from the main companies.

Compared to recent polls, this is a good poll for FG and GP, OK for most others, and bad for SF, AAPBP & the SocDems.

Poll result and IPR projections as follows;

Poll Seats
FG 31% 58
FF 19% 34
SF 17% 27
LB 8% 14
GP 4% 2
AAA/PBP 4% 4
SocDems 1% 2
Renua 1% 0
OTH 14% 17

FG will be pleased and may be tempted to go earlier in the new year now, especially if Banking Inquiry difficulties gives them cover for that. Labour will see it in the light of polls that show some recovery for them, but less so than their Govt partners, and they will need to show the merit of their influence since 2011 if they are going to avoid losing half or more of their seats. Their strategy is clearly to argue that, while some other parties on the left may agree with them on certain issues (or go further), none of those are likely to be in Govt after the next election, and so they are the ones who could actually deliver (to some extent) on those policies.  It may work with some, but these figures show that most of the 19% who voted Labour in 2011 remain to be convinced, and I suspect even two-thirds of that vote would represent a big recovery for them at this stage.  As it is, they are still vulnerable to a small slippage that could lose them up to half of the seats even projected here.

My own money on current figures would be on a FG/FF govt, but recent polling on ‘preferred Govt’ showed a preference for the current coalition to continue (perhaps with outside support), and so LP will be doing their best to make the choice that stark.  Support for the Govt isn’t high though (35% vs 56%) and so that preference appears based upon distaste for the alternatives, rather than widespread enthusiasm for the status quo.

SF won’t be especially happy with this poll, but they were perhaps overstated in the previous B&A poll, and they would still be looking at a big increase in seats were this result to be realised.  But no chance of being in Govt for the centenary.  FF continue to bob along at a consistent rate, I suspect they have a core vote that won’t move much, but there is little sign they are going to make any great recovery from 2011 at this stage.

The AAAPBPULAWYHY (I made some of that up…) have reverted to the c.4% they were at before the previous 8% B&A gave them. Given it’s unlikely that the combined SF and old ULA vote dropped 8% in one month, I suspect this is more a symptom of something amiss with the previous figures, rather than something more drastic.  Their ability to show a united front (never their strength) will be tested further in the General Election.

This poll appears to have left some online SocDem supporters confused… Tens of retweets is always nice, but you need thousands of real-world 1st preference votes in your own constituency to be elected, and 1% of the national vote, if accurate, would be slightly less than their 3 TDs got in 2011, so they have to hope that this poll is a wrong ‘un, or that they can turn around their fortunes , otherwise they’ll be kicking their heels at the election counts with Renua..  Of course there’s the margin of error, but even if they got 3%, all that would do is make their 3 existing TDs safer than they are on these figures, and maybe put them in the mix for the last seat in 2-3 other constituencies. I suspect the lack of a leader (3 TDs, all of them co-leader, isn’t a model that might be termed ‘courageous’, perhaps even more so once the election starts). They may have to bite that bullet very shortly or find themselves very disappointed.

Otherwise, party leader ratings are largely negative for them all (except Ryan who many not have made much of an impression, and whose party poll well on this occasion), figures (satisfied/dis-) as follows;

Kenny 35/56 (-21%)

Burton 39/53 (-14%)

Martin 40/46 (-6%)

Adams 35/49 (-14%)

Ryan    35/36(-1%)

Anyways, that was longer than I intended.  Hope you find it fun/interesting etc.

D

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Written by Dotski

December 13, 2015 at 6:54 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

2 Responses

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  1. Hi Dotski,

    good to see you back!

    I have been attempting my own election simulations at https://irishelectionsimulation.wordpress.com/ – you can download spreadsheets with detailed results of each simulation.

    For the B&A poll m perl script produced an average result of FG 60.24, Lab: 4.53, FF: 32.58, SF: 27.37. If you take the most common result in each constituency, it gives FG 62, Lab 3, FF 33, SF 27. I think my value for Labour seats is probably too low and yours may be too high. Otherwise, our results are quite similar.

    ciaranquinn123

    December 13, 2015 at 9:34 pm

    • GRMA a Ciaran, good to see yours, reality might well be between the 2, depends on transfer rates in most LP seats in this simulation..assumed quite good from FG, indifferent from FF and hard left. Suspect even if tramsfers polled now (a) samples too small, & (b) many are last minute decisions and so polling now on it may not be of great value.

      Dotski

      December 13, 2015 at 10:22 pm


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