Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

A lighter shade of green…

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IPSOS-MRBI poll (click here for details) out tonight for the 5-seat Donegal constituency (commissioned by TG4), and it forecasts 2FF, 1 SF, 1FG, and a dogfight for the  last seat between SF & IND.  The poll seems to have used ballots and simulated counts, and show another IND (Dessie Sheils) to be giving Pringle a run for his money.

FWIW my projections have FF about 3% lower and SF higher by about the same, FG 1-2% higher and INDs c.1% lower, so quite close, but enough to make the 2nd SF seat safe in mine, and see Pringle stay ahead of FF2.

I was always dubious of SF’s 3 candidate strategy here but thought they should still hold onto MacLochlainn’s seat – this poll shows how precarious that may be.  In an election they are expected to make a breakthrough, if an established (and popular) TD loses – revision or not -they may be struggling to make the breakthrough.

Further polls for TG4 due next Tuesday (Kerry) and a 3rd one (presumably Galway West) will follow before polling day. All 3 are interesting constituencies so it will be great to see professional polls done at constituency level for once (usually thse are little more than canvassing returns).




Written by Dotski

February 9, 2016 at 11:02 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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