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Paddy Power have a RedC poll out this morning on RTE. Thanks to the miracle of Google Drive I’ve been able to run spreadsheet during coffee break.

LP down to 8 (are the polls ‘herding’ already?), good for AAAPBP, bad for Renua..also rounding issues mean only 98% in totals, looking forward to seeing breakdowns later.

Projections as follows (can’t insert spreadsheet tables using the phone…)

FG     30%   58
FF      18%   32
SF      17%   26
LB        8%   12
GP        2%     1
AAAP.. 4%     4
SocD… 3%     3
Ren…   1%     0
OTH  15%   22

Thats FG/LP about 10 seats short…hard to see a Govt that could pass a budget in those circumstances without a lot of ‘special development zones’ being agreed with certain TDs, and I’m not sure Govt could risk the backlash.

Also figures on preferred Gov which, ironically show movement towards FG/LP on own (now 2nd, just behind FG/LP/IND).


At work and break over so will leave analysis for another day.

Written by Dotski

February 10, 2016 at 12:44 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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