Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Are we nearly there yet? (Yes, probably)…

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Some discussion online about whether much more movement is likely at this stage. While I suspect much to play out locally, these tussles may cancel out in the national picture. To test this, I had a look back at the blogpost from this date 5 years ago.

https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2011/02/12/red-see-blue/

(unlike a certain other blogger, I’ve left these projections up on the same site as my current ones, it allows you judge accuracy of my method for yourself)

That post had a RedC poll (equivilant to one coming out tomorrow evening) and the figures (and my projections) were as follows;

FF: 15%    17
FG: 38%   73
LP: 20%   40
SF: 10%    11
GP: 3%       2
OTH:14%  23

The actual result, a fortnight later was

FF: 17.5%    20
FG: 36.1%   76
LP: 19.5%   37
SF: 9.9%     14
GP: 1.8%       0
OTH:15.2%  19

So some movement (esp FF/SF), OTH doing worse on vote to seats ratio, FG doing better (I recall the late Garrett FitzGerald commenting on their good fortune on RTE during the coverage on how their votes distributed), but nothing seismic…all parties within 3% of that poll, and within 3 seats of the IPR projections.

Thats not to say there weren’t ups and downs in the meantime or (more likely) significant changes in how transfers would be used (that often happens in the polling booth), however it does suggest that the national picture is unlikely to change massively between now and polling day.

For my money, that makes some sort of FG/FF arrangement about 90% likely, with the only alternative a FG/LP govt with Indo/microparty support (and that dependent on LP gaining 2-3% over next fortnight, if that gain is FG’s I suspect the former option is only one in town, if they are to avoid a grand coalition. In practice this may involve a fixed period Tallaght Strategy by FF. Alternative is an election that nobody will want.

Maybe this time it will be different, the high OTH vote may be volatile (esp in 2nd preferences), but anyone hoping for a big swing in the closing days may be set for disapointment.

D

 

 

 

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Written by Dotski

February 12, 2016 at 11:20 am

Posted in Uncategorized

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