Trendy politics

Just a wee post on how the polling has progressed for the parties (across the pollsters) over the campaign.. more for myself (to separate out the noise from actual trends), but thought I’d leave up here for anyone interested.  Results of polls are in chronological order (i.e. oldest first).

NB this is NOT a prediction, simply a summary of what pollsters are indicating to date.

Fine Gael

There has been 7 RedC’s since the election was called.  In those, FG has polled;

30-29-31-30-28-26-30

So a range of 26-31%, starting and finishing at the higher end (30%). Before the last poll however this looked like a decline from 31% (mid campaign) to 26%, so far from certain the decline has been reversed on RedC data.  But 29-30% would look likely based on this pollster.

3 B&A polls, in those FG were 31-28-30.  Again implies a small decline, followed by a recovery, and support between 29-30%.

2 Millward Brown polls, both at 27%, and the 2 MRBIs  both 28%.

Overall, a figure of around 29%. 

Fianna Fail

RedC polling as follows;

19-17-17-18-18-19-18

Remarkably stable (almost suspiciously so..) 18% from them and solidly so.

B&A had them 20-20-23, so are consistently giving them more, and increasing at the end.  

Millward Brown 22 & 23, MRBI 21 & 23.

So RedC have stood apart from the others to date, and the difference implied 18% vs rising slightly to 23%, would make a very big difference to them.  Seem certain to be 2nd largest party in the new Dail either way.

Sinn Fein

RedC give them;

19-19-17-17-20-17-16

So possibly slight decline (except for 1 blip)…if the 20 was an outlier, they have 4 ‘going’ from 17 to 16… No momentum but no real decline there, looks about 16-17 to me.

B&A gave them 16-17-15, pretty stable, suggesting a vote about 15-16.

Millward Brown 21 & 19 so maybe a slight decline, but from a higher base..MRBI gave them 19 and 15.

About 16-17% overall on those figures maybe but slipping slightly towards 15%.

Labour

RedC have given them;

9-10-10-8-8-9-8

Fairly stable, but suggesting they may have peaked early in the campaign..suggestive of a little over 8.

B&A gave 6, 8 and (famously) 4 … a bit erratic and you’d be slow to take anything from that series..if forced you might suspect they were about 6

Millward Brown were 6% each time, and MRBI#1 gave them 7% and 6%.  

If I had to take anything from that set of figures it would be about 7%.

Greens

Red C figures were;

2-3-2-2-2-4-4 – Implies after a steady 2%, may have increased to 4% now.

B&A gave 3% in each poll so if there was a rise it was masked or hidden by variance in the sample.

Millward Brown gave 1 and 2, so slight rise but from lower base, really though the vote itself well within the margin of error.  The MRBI gave them 2% both times.

Hard to say for sure, but any movement there is does appear to have been upwards, polls appear to be suggesting they are at about 3%.

AAAPBP

RedC have given them;

3-3-3-4-3-2-3.  Implication is they have straightlined at 3%.  I suspect this masks a slight increase in an initial total over-stated by ex-ULA candidates some voters may have assumed would be part of this alliance – as posters go up their voters would start to move to “OTH”, and so if stable I suspect they have actually risen.

B&A have given them 3-3-5, suggesting a rise from a similar base.

Millward Brown gave them 3 & 5, again suggesting an increase from the base of 3.  MRBI gave them 4 and 5.

Overall would read this as polls indicating rising to 5% at this stage.

SocDems

RedC have given them;

1-2-3-3-4-3-4

Slow steady increase. Particularly satisfying for them is that the increase has happened in the same context of people in 26 constituencies discovering they have no SocDem candidate, which should be a downward pressure.  would suggest a vote of at least 4%, rising to 5%, but perhaps these figures still include people who won’t have the option.

B&A gave them 1-4-3 … basically lower base but reached 3-4%… woulda thought hopeful of 4% on these figures.

MB similarly see them go from 1% to 4%, and MRBI#1 gave them 2% rising to 4%.

Around 4% at this stage, I would have thought with slight upward momentum…

Renua

RedC have given them;

2-1-1-2-1-2-2

Implies a little shy of 2%, which is surprising given their candidates and profile. (Edit I’ve since been told were about 2.4% in the most recent one, so upper end of that).

B&A have given them 2-2-3, which is more promising and they will be hoping these figures are more accurate.

MB gave them 1-2, and MRBI#1 1% followed by 2%.

Something between 2-3% I think if accurate.given they have far more candidates than SocDems and AAA, this will spread very thinly if accurate.

OTH

RedC totals as follows;

15-16-16-16-16-18-15

Strongly suggests 15-16%.  As you can see!

B&A gave them 20-15-15.

MB saw them drop from 18 to 14. MRBI was 16% and 15%.

So about 15% but falling?  Maybe, we’ll see whether MRBI concurs.

Summary

Polls to date, across the pollsters, suggesting;

 

Fine Gael : Overall, a figure of around 29%.

Fianna Fail : RedC have stood apart from the others to date, and the difference implied 18% vs c.23%, would make a big difference to them.  Seem certain to be 2nd largest party in the new Dail either way.

Sinn Fein: Falling to 15%.

Labour: About 7% on average but big variance overall.  They’d rather RedC counting the votes on Saturday than B&A I think.

Greens : Hard to say for sure, but any movement there is does appear to have been upwards, polls appear to be suggesting they are at about 3%.

AAAPBP : Overall I would read this as polls indicating rising to 5% at this stage.

SocDems: Around 4% at this stage, I would have thought with slight upward momentum…

Renua: 2-3%…given they have far more candidates than SocDems and AAA, this will spread very thinly if accurate.
OTH: So about 15% but falling .