Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Hang the lot of ’em…

with 5 comments

Last RedC out today, tallies with trends in other polls, if slightly different details (slight in FPVs, if not in seat outcomes).

No time to do piece on it, but projections are as follows;

FG         30% 55
FF         20% 39
SF         15% 22
LB           7%   9
GP            3%   2
AAA/PBP 3% 5
SocDems 4% 6
Renua      2% 2
OTH       16% 18

(Sorry re format, done on my phone).

Rumour of Millward Brown in tomorrow’s Indo, so that’ll be last pre vote poll.

Written by Dotski

February 23, 2016 at 11:50 am

Posted in Uncategorized

5 Responses

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  1. Where are the Soc Dems getting the three additional seats though?


    February 23, 2016 at 12:14 pm

    • Depends as their base is especially estimated, this being their 1st election, and also should note that this is rounded up from 5.7. Two likliest gains IMO on those figures would seem to be Lim County and 50/50 in Dub Bay South, with a chance of a 3rd in Gal W, DubBN, & CorkE.


      February 23, 2016 at 12:21 pm

      • Five would seem the limit – TG4 poll gives O’Tuathail realistic chance of final seat, while in the capital, DBN appears an attainable target.


        February 23, 2016 at 8:43 pm

  2. Presumably the two Renua seats are Lucinda and Timmins


    February 23, 2016 at 4:58 pm

    • Possibly although Lucinda only one with more than 50% probability on thise figures (tot=170%, rounded to two), I think my personal prediction will likely include both of those but model showing outside chances too in Dub Bay Nth (more as result of fractured field) & Cork E, both require good FPV & bad show by FF who then would have to transfer well to sneak in but odds against in both cases.


      February 23, 2016 at 5:19 pm

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