Triple Crown

Seats not finalised, but maybe its time to look at how the different companies did in their final polls of the campaign.

As I pointed out in 2011, MRBI had been the closest in 2007-  people still rubbished them, and they went on to be the most accurate in 2011 also. And yet, still the mockers.

This time, they introduced another adjustment which I was dubious of at first, and I didn’t project their first poll on the blog as a result.  Subsequently I met their MD for a coffee and he very kindly explained the reasoning and impact of that adjustment (along with other aspects of their vision of polling), and I was impressed enough with his reasoning to go back to projecting for their polls.

Just as well! This year they were looking to be the most accurate in both the pre-election poll and Exit poll, and managed it again with aplomb.

Figures below on the last polls and the exit polls from RedC, B&A, MillwardBrown, MRBI, the DIT poll and the IPR projections, along with the 2 exit polls.

Of the pre-election polls, MRBI were the closest, being a cumulative 11.36% out over over the 9 party/Oth totals.  My estimates were second at 13.68%, RedC 3rd with 14.6%, Millward Brown 4th with 17.36%, B&A 5th with 20.6%, and DIT last (just!) with 21.04%.

In the battle of the Exits (which had much smaller margins of error due to bigger and-presumably – more accurate samples of actual voters), MRBI were also closer, being an impressive 8.04% out, compared to B&A’s decent 10.38%.

Impossible to meaningfully compare these with the 2011 figures as the smaller parties weren’t measured in those.

Anyways, the figures are below. Read ’em and weep. Etc etc.

	FG	FF	SF	LP	AAA	GP	SDs	REN	OTH	TOT
Last B&A	30	18	16	8	3	4	4	2	15	100
Out	4.48	6.35	2.15	1.39	0.95	1.28	1	0.18	2.82	20.6
Last MRBI	28	23	15	6	5	2	4	2	15	100
Out	2.48	1.35	1.15	0.61	1.05	0.72	1	0.18	2.82	11.36
Last MBrown	27	23	19	6	5	2	4	2	12	100
Out	1.48	1.35	5.15	0.61	1.05	0.72	1	0.18	5.82	17.36
Last RedC	30	20	15	7	3	3	4	2	16	100
Out	4.48	4.35	1.15	0.39	0.95	0.28	1	0.18	1.82	14.6
IPR	30	20	15	7.5	3.3	2.5	2.9	2.5	16.3	100
Out	4.48	4.35	1.15	0.89	0.65	0.22	0.1	0.32	1.52	13.68
DIT	32	20	15	8	2	2	4	2	14	99
out	6.48	4.35	1.15	1.39	1.95	0.72	1	0.18	3.82	21.04
B&A Ex	24.8	21.1	16	7.1	4.7	3.6	3.7	2.4	16.6	100
Out	0.72	3.25	2.15	0.49	0.75	0.88	0.7	0.22	1.22	10.38
MRBI Ex	26.1	22.9	14.9	7.8	3.6	3.5	2.8	2.6	15.8	100
Out	0.58	1.45	1.05	1.19	0.35	0.78	0.2	0.42	2.02	8.04
RESULT	25.52	24.35	13.85	6.61	3.95	2.72	3	2.18	17.82	100
Poll	Out
Last B&A	20.6
Last MRBI	11.36
Last MBrown	17.36
Last RedC	14.6
IPR	13.68
DIT	21.04
B&A Ex	10.38
MRBI Ex	8.04