The Poll-y Trinity #sorry…
In addition to measuring support for the #euref, the polls form the 3 main companies over the weekend measured party support over the weekend. Have been too busy to run all 3, but have done a ‘poll of polls’ for them, with the averages all within the margin of error for each party in each poll, although some more than others of course…
The findings were as follows;
| mrbi | redc | l/mb | |
| FG | 32 | 30 | 36 |
| LP | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| FF | 17 | 18 | 17 |
| SF | 24 | 19 | 20 |
| ULA | 1 | ||
| GP | 2 | 1 |
As you can see, significant variance for FG and SF. ULA were polled for by L/MB, and they will be very dissapointed to register 1% (comapred to 2.57% in #ge11, although the moe is big here for them, and you’d need a good few polls before you took this as read. However, ominously for them, the OTH rating is generally down, and it does appear that a more nationalist position is gaining more traction in the face of #euref than the international socialist alternative, and that is something they will be nervy about. Nevertheless, I’ve done my normal formula for them and OTH, assuming that they have a similar proportion to normal, and will do so until there are 3-4 polls that show were they are….Greens are measured in 2, so I’ve averaged them at the 1.5% their 1% & 2% would indicate, slightly below the 1.85% they got last year.
Anyways, the spreadsheet projects….
| Projected result | % | seats |
| FG | 32.66% | 63 |
| LP | 12.33% | 23 |
| FF | 17.33% | 26 |
| SF | 21.00% | 32 |
| ULA | 2.56% | 5 |
| GP | 1.50% | 0 |
| OTH | 12.60% | 17 |
Very good for SF, but also for FF, who would stay ahead of LP on seats as well as votes on the average of these figures. LP will be nervy on these figures. Basically they’ve been pushing a referendum which isn’t popular with a significant proportion of their voters, and its perhaps unsurprising that they are down in 2 of the 3 findings (RedC having them up may just be a blip). They will of course be watching this closely, and if they are in this territory come October, the Budgetary process could become quite strained…
Other than that, not much to add, so I’ll hit return and go back to the missus….
TTFN
D
Irish Polling Report 
Gilmore and his crew must be very worried. Time for Joan to do the needful and dispose of the windbag?
Niall
May 29, 2012 at 11:08 am
I suspect he’s safe enough, pretty sure a challenge from Joan would fail. Also they’ve dropped during EU refs before, so are likely to hold course. IMO..
Dotski
May 30, 2012 at 12:53 pm
The tabs for the First L/MB poll in the middle of the month are available here http://www.imsl.ie/downloads/Irish%20Independent%20Poll%20May%202012%20FINAL%20INCLUDING%20PERSONAL%20FINANCE.pdf
Page 18 shows the regional numbers. The Dublin numbers for the ULA and Greens look a bit too light considering their previous election results (7.13% ULA, 3.59% Green). Also The FG numbers in both of their polls this month have been higher than the others pollsters in the field. Suggesting maybe systemic sampling errors?
Janus
May 29, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Regional breakdowns can be interesting, but always best taken as indicative, rather than mini polls, as in addition to smaller samples, often don’t have demographic/gender balance required, e.g. might be right % of women & abc1s in national poll, but might not be in individual regions. Had thought of using them to tweak spreadsheet in last GE, but it threw out crazy figures, so dropped it. So probably nothing to read into this, are out but its ok as that wasn’t the task
Dotski
May 30, 2012 at 12:59 pm
The Point I was trying to make was that repeated low numbers in what should be the strongest region for both of those groups might suggest that Millward browne have got systemic sample issues. Even without weighting for various facts the regions should be in favour of the parties that are strong there by virtue of larger numbers of potential responders.
Although to be fair what I was really trying to get at is the fact that Irish pollsters leave a lot to be desired when compared to their international cousins. B&A are the only pollster in Ireland that provide full tabulated data with the others either providing what amounts only to PR press packs or in the case of MRBI nothing at all. If they can’t do that then how do we know that their methodology is up to snuff.
Janus
May 30, 2012 at 2:49 pm
I suppose I judge pollsters by how well they predict GE results. Those are the ones where the voter actually knows (well, more often) how they will actually vote, and so companies that do best at that inspire the most confidence in me. In fairness to the big 3, they have been close enough for the difference to be margin of error. B&A have no record, and being out of line with the ones that do made them suspect for a while, but their change in method the other month seems to have brought them in line, and so they may turn out well, but until we see test the accuracy of their efforts against an actual GE, we’ll be somewhat in the dark…
Dotski
May 31, 2012 at 10:22 pm
[…] Millward Brown don’t poll as frequently as the others in the big 3, and the shift since May 2012 has been most notable in FG (-11) and FF (+10). Other than that, LP are *up* 1% (that’s what […]
Back to business as usual…? « Irish Polling Report
February 18, 2013 at 1:07 am