Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

The West’s awake (and voting Healy-Rae…)

with 2 comments

Very surprising MRBI poll for TG4 today,  which, following on from last week’s surprise  showing SF losing their 2nd TD in the Donegal merger, shows an apparent collapse in the SF vote in Kerry, to the benefit of the Indos, presumably largely the Healy-Rae brothers.

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Always hard to predict a new constituency, but one would have thought the merger of (effectively) 2 halves of the same county would be less surprising.  Ferris got 20.35% in the North (which contained part of Limerick county), and while there was no SF candidate in the South one would have expected some level of SF support had they run a candidate there, but the combined 7% Ferris now seems to be at (which would be fewer votes than he got in Kerry North alone last time, when SF was 10% nationally) in the county seems surprisingly low.  No real surprises with the other parties, in the IPR projection (based on the last RedC) FG came out at 27.9%, FF at 14.4%, LP at 8.3%, so the main move up is OTH/Indos, who appear to be mopping up the anti-establishment vote in the Kingdom.

On these figures, it seems impossible to see failure to elect a 2nd Indo, along with 1 FF, 1 FG and a dogfight between FG2, LP & SF.  Destination of the Indo surplus should decide whether Spring or Ferris is ahead of the other…if its Spring he may get enough from SF to be ahead of FG2 and take the final seat, if its Ferris, I would have thought while some North Kerry votes would go to him, enough would go to FG to put them over the line.  In theory a 3rd Indo is possible, but I can’t see the vote splitting kindly enough for this to happen.

This poll may be an outlier (or not) but either way it shows that, under the bonnet, there are big winners and losers that always buck the trend. They will generally cancel out (I suspect SF under-performing on the West coast means more of their swing in Dublin) however it shows that there are perhaps more seats in play that one would have thought…Spring was one of those I’d have nearly written off for Labour, but this poll shows him very much in the hunt.  But the big story is the Healy-Raes.

Bet the BBC will love that…

 

Edit: Further details…assuming strong Healy-Rae internal transfers they’d definately have 2 seats on this..FG vote split very well which would make them well placed to take the last seat.

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Written by Dotski

February 16, 2016 at 7:19 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

2 Responses

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  1. Hard to imagine the transfers being other than rock solid in the case of a pair of brothers. I mean if you would happily vote for the father and one of the sons, why not another one. Is the Bertie – Brady transfer about to be eclipsed? Are there better examples than the one offerred?

    @georgedh1970

    February 18, 2016 at 1:50 am

    • Ho George!
      Yes my assumption is a very high transfer rate, but of course will be some slippage eg those who think MHR is a good TD but less sure anout the brother (or dislike idea)…but given appeal of MHR, presume over 90% on this occasion will stay in family…also assume split will be improved.

      Dotski

      February 18, 2016 at 8:53 am


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