…. Get Set ….
Rushing out the door now, but just saw RedC figures tweeted.
FF 16% (+2)
FG 33% (-2)
LP 21% NC
SF 13% (-1)
GP 2% (-2)
OTH 15% (+3)
Not got the time to analyse much further but ran it through the spreadsheet and got the following;
FF 20 seats
FG 59 seats
LP 45 seats
SF 20 seats
OTH 22 seats
Am off now, but will do a constituency profile tomorrow.
Irish Polling Report 
[…] […]
SBP / RedC : FG 33 -2 Lab 21 FF 16 +2 SF 13 -1 Greens 2 -2 Ind 15 +3 - Page 6
January 29, 2011 at 6:32 pm
FF and SF on 20 each, who would be main opposition? Probably labour…lol
Joe Hickey
January 29, 2011 at 6:34 pm
it really is interesting how small differences in party share, and small differences relative to each other, really influence seat share.
starkest example is SF have 13% and 20 seats with Red C, but 10% with Lansdowne means a 12 seat drop!
Labour show a 9 seat difference on a 3% difference, i assume because FF claim 2% back, bringing them into the running for last seats against Labour?
bprob
January 29, 2011 at 10:04 pm
A mixture, depending on the constituency, but as you’ve noted the biggest difference is for SF, and the knock on for other parties. it’s not surprising that they take off LP if doing better, but they also can in some areas from FG where there are LP transfers that go towards electing the last seat. Will do a round up tomorrow that should shed some light on a few of the contests – Certianly there’s a tipping point for SF that makes this a very big election for them.
Dotski
January 30, 2011 at 12:38 am
it seems there are tipping points for several of the parties in this election:
FG have a point where they could get near majority or minority with independents, (unlikely i know).
FF have a point where they implode, (virtually certain, even if its sold as an improvement on the 14% Cowen polled).
SF, as you said, and Labour have a point where they can really get a big seat bonus, (SF possible if Adams doesn’t ruin it for them, Labour definite, only question is how big).
have you been able to identify what those percentage shares are for each party?
also, is there an amount that FF can increase over the campaign, but that still doesn’t translate into a salvaging of seats?
i realise they will be in a range rather than an absolute figure, as it is influenced by what other parties get.
bprob
January 30, 2011 at 2:55 pm
Good question, and as you say, while it depends on how other parties are doing, there seems to be a very big difference for FF at about 15% and at around 20-21%, way more than 5-6% of the seats. And if they polled less than 10%, they’d not have more than 2-3 safe seats in the country. My gut tells me they could still recover to about 20% and save themselves, but if they don’t, they are looking at massive depletion.
FG I’m not sure as they’ve been so steady at 30-35% for so long … I might try a few hypothetical polls to see how they’d do if they edged up to 38-39% (it would depend whose expense it was at, but if at LP’s I suspect that would put them into the 70s in seats.
LP again depends on other parties, but there seems to be a big difference between low 20s and mid to high 20s for them. Most scores in the teens I think have a similar enough votes-to-seats ratio. Once into the 30s they can’t make much additional benefit, in part as they’d not have enough candidates to benefit from that (although that sort of score looks unlikely now, of course)
SF have a massive difference between being 9% and 12-13% in seats, particularly if the higher polling is at expense of LP (loads of seats both in Dublin and the West of Ireland, and a few dotted around the place come into play). Big big election for them, and I can see why they are targeting LP.
GP at 4% would probably hold a couple of seats, at 2% are wiped out, and 3% might hold one if very lucky in how it goes for other parties.
So yeah, it could be a roller-coaster that makes or breaks a lot of careers – and maybe one or more parties!
Dotski
January 30, 2011 at 3:50 pm
thanks for that
i am certain now that FF will get to 20% i saw Martin canvassing in Cork city centre yesterday, and although it is home turf, i think he has had a slate-wiping effect for FF.
your point about the stability of FG is valid. i think the only way they can increase up to high 30’s is to have topic debates between the party spokespeople and hope enda holds his own in the unavoidable leadership debates. the front bench of FG is clearly the most capable, but they need to get that in full public view.
I have to say, i’d be concerned if i was Labour. an FF swing on one side, and a SF surge on the other isn’t good news, and J Burton has clearly picked Winter 2010-11 to implode personally. like FG, they need to have more Rabbitte/Quinn with Gilmore, and need to really hope for a knock-out debate performance by Gilmore.
SF are looking good as the southern version of the DUP, saying no to everything. they need to have Doherty saying no instead of Adams though!!
Greens might have to turn to religion i think
bprob
January 30, 2011 at 4:04 pm
I am not so sure whether Martin will go down well in Dublin or other provincial cities, in the way that he will in Cork.
FF will remain transfer poison in the way that SF have been traditionally and that is going to screw any FF candidate sitting on less than 75% of a quota.
The role of the “others” whether fringe groups of Trots or of right wing publicists like Ross will certainly be interesting. However many of those also are unlikely to be transfer friendly.
I wonder how will the transfer of FF when eliminated go and also those of trailing FG nominees? Has any work been done on possible transfers between tweedledum and tweedledee?
On a purely mechanical calculation
FF should get 27 seats incl. CC
FG 54
Lab 35
SF 21
The others are unlikely to pick up anything close to their % in seats as they are from a wide range of groups and views, I think it is likely that FG will take perhaps 120% of their fair share seats, giving them perhaps 65 seats on this percentage. The LP & particularly SF can gain extra seats by staying ahead of left leaning non-party candidates, as well as the various followers of Trotsky.
I can’t see where the FF transfers will come from, leaving them in serious trouble, stuck adrift without the life jacket of transfers
Niall
January 30, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Thanks for the great work again.
Something that just doesn’t seem to add up for me.
Labour seem to be getting a massive seat bonus for their share of FPVs compared to other parties.
I know a straight-line division of the seats doesn’t make sense but Labor are getting 27% of the seats with just 21% of the FPVs. That is a massive 30% seat bonus.
The next closest is FG with just 8% and every other party seems to be getting far less seats than their share of the FPV
FF 75%
FG 108%
LP 129%
SF 93%
OTH 88%
Dreaded_Estate
January 31, 2011 at 11:24 pm
There’s a numebr of factors, but LP has always done well, getting 12.1% of the seats on 10% of the votes in the last 2 GEs, which is 121% (and of course, if some parties are above 100%, others must be below it for the total to come to 100%).
Its up a bit further this time, and generally parties tend to improve their vote-to-seat ratio as they get bigger (FF didn’t need 50% of the vote to get 50% of the seats), as (a) previously LP failed to get elected in over half their constituencies before, which meant in most areas their votes were ‘wasted’ in the seats-generating business, reducing the ratio, and (b) there is a much larger pool of left-wing transfers this time, most of which won’t be used to elect TDs, than before, again making the LP votes “work harder” if you like, with SF and ULA likely to have similar ‘wasted votes’, and pushing them down. Also, PDs are off the scene, and they were poor transfers to LP before (and very good for FG and FF).
Of course, all this could change, but that’s where we’re at at the moment.
Dotski
February 1, 2011 at 2:13 am