Irish Polling Report

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I meant to say, “Southern Comfort with Red”, please…

with 11 comments

Another Cork internal poll (this time from FF) indicating local movement similar to that predicted in this parish.

The Sindo, in addition to reporting the FG Cork SC poll reported in yesterday’s Indo (and also in Friday’s Evening Echo) are reporting on a FF poll from Cork NW

While the extrapolation of the ‘journalist’ in question is a nonsense (he sees FF vulnerable to losing their seat, despite being above a quota), it is interesting in showing FG “less than 50%” and LP over 20%, which would indicate the last seat being between FG2 and LP (as I’ve been projecting from most of the non-RedC polls). This is particularly interesting in the context of the FG Cork SC and Donegal polls – all the constituency polls are showing figures that make RedC – an outlier nationally – an outlier for constituency results also.

I would expect a few more of these in the coming weeks and months ….

Written by Dotski

October 10, 2010 at 2:31 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

11 Responses

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  1. […] be hoping that MRBI & Lansdowne are closer to the truth, or that local factors will assist. A local poll conducted on behalf of FF does however hold out hope for […]

  2. Would expect this to go 1 FF (hard to say if it will be Batt O’Keeffe or Michael Moynihan that will retain their seat) and 2 FG in the next election. (I’m from this constituency myself). Labour doesn’t have a very strong presence in the constituency and I’d find it hard to see them the break this time.

    John Brennan

    October 31, 2010 at 1:54 pm

  3. […] it calculating. And, interestingly, recent constituency polls commissioned by FF and FG in Cork NW and Cork SC have shown results very close to those projected by the spreadsheet in the poll of […]

  4. […] it comes so close to the spreadsheet predictions, which along with FG and FF polls in Cork SC and Cork NW suggests that the formulae are working pretty […]

  5. There was mention of a FG poll in Cork North Central in yesterday’s Evening Echo (12/11/10). The breakdown was as follows: FG 37%, Lab 27%, FF24%, SF 6%, SP 4% and WP 2%. (That adds up to only 97 though). I am a bit suspicious about it as the figures for SF/SP/WP seem a bit lower than word on the ground would have me believe. Fine Gael has been on 10 – 15% in this constituency over the last few elections and never polled more than 20% since Cork NC was established in 1981. FG admit that their poll may have overstated FG support as it put the names of all of the prospective FG candidates on the mock ballot sheet. I believe FG will be below 30%.

    Local Yokel

    November 13, 2010 at 8:44 pm

    • Thanks for that LocYok.

      Yes, it does look well out, FG got 27.5% in CNC last time – but a 10% swing would be well out on the national one, and there’s little reason to believe this would happen, particularly with a more balanced LP ticket this time out.

      I’d agree FG will be lower, but may be above 30% – on current figures anyway. but a lot can happen between now and then I guess….


      November 13, 2010 at 11:45 pm

    • Someone is telling porkies with that CNC poll – SF got more than 8% in the last election and the Socialist Party got more than 4% of the vote. Can anyone seriously suggest that a poll that indicates both parties losing votes is going to be anything other than someone leaking fake numbers.

      Jolly Red Giant

      February 5, 2011 at 6:12 pm

  6. […] far off the recent FF poll , which had FG “less than 50%”, although that poll had LP above, rather than below, 20%. Again, […]

  7. […] to previous Cork polls run against the spreadsheet projections which were very close here and here. The biggest reason for this would appear to be the retirement of Bernard Allen, as FG are way way […]

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