Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

RedC – Nov 2010 projections

with 31 comments

Well, as polls in the 2009-2010 era of Irish politics go, that wasn’t too exciting (unless you’re a SF supporter). Every party within the m.o.e. of the previous RedC. How to make this interesting….. Oh, I’ll just have to get the Greens to announce they’re leaving govt… 😉

Sorry for the delay in getting this up – if I was a traffic whore I’d have got it up earlier today, given the amount of people on p.ie, but it wasn’t really feasible, alas.

As established, RedC generally have significantly higher ratings for FG and FF than all the other companies (and to a lesser extent SF and GP) and lower ratings for LP and OTH. So a poll that shows FF at a new low, and LP at their joint highest rating ever (and SF at their highest since March 2009) might sound good news for the Govt. However, the poll was largely conducted before the IMF’s role became apparent, and before Pat Rabbitte became a Youtube star

The most obvious movement is for SF. There are a few factors which can be accredited to this net 2% movement.

1. The announcement that Gerry Adams will context Louth in the GE. Locally, there are probably pros and cons to this decision – there’ll be ppl voting for him that didn’t vote for Morgan, but there are others who would object to someone coming in from outside the constituency (particularly someone with a lesser grasp of economic policy…). However, for all his shortcomings, Adams is their leader, and if he can perform better than he did in ’07 (and I suspect he can) he can come across as more relevant, and a bigger hitter than the worthy but dull O’Caolain.

2.Pearse Doherty has performed very well as a candidate in the DSW bye-election. They have been fortunate that the issue of it’s delay has arisen in a constituency where they have such a good candidate, and the national exposure of Doherty has, I have no doubt, resulted in a fair portion of the floating LP-to-SF vote (which is substantial) thinking more positively of SF than Frank McBreaty’s party.

3.SF are talking about dealing with the deficit over a much longer period than LP, and Gilmore distanced himself from SF’s economic policies in his Late Late Show interview. This may have been prudent from his p.o.v. for fear of votes drifting to FF/FG, but it presumably saw some movement from LP to SF.

As I said yesterday, the spreadsheet threw out the following projections (movement from last month’s RedC in brackets);

FG 61 (no change)
LP 55 (-2)
FF 26 (-1)
SF 14 (+7)
GP 1 (-2)
OTH 9 (-2)

Obviously, only FG/LP (116 seats, majority of c.66) or FG/FF (87 seats, majority of c.8) would be possible govts from these outcome. My money would be on FG/LP, with FG getting Taoiseach and 8 Ministers, but LP getting Finance and Foreign Affairs, and pretty much 50% of the Programme for Govt). Or rather, the IMF getting 90%, and FG and LP getting 5% apiece…

So, what would a uniform swing produce in each constituency? Well, the spreadsheet suggests….

Carlow-Kilkenny

FF 27% (2)
FG 37% (2)
LP 21% (1)
SF 8%
GP 7%
Two safe FG seats, one safe each for FF and LP, and the last seat between FF2 and LP2 (plus very long shot chance for FG3 if they did better on GP/SF transfers). While LP would do well from SF transfers and some GP voters, and FG3 should then assist LP2, I assume that enough GP votes go to the Govt partners to stop LP pulling off that second seat.

Cavan-Monaghan
FF 18% (1)
FG 36.5% (2)
LP 8%
SF 29% (2)
GP 2.5%
Connolly (IND) 5%

Those who’ve followed the IPR projections will know that this constituency is shaping up for a fight between LP and SF’s Cavan candidate for the last seat. The previous time I gave it to LP, but this time I have SF2 very (very) narrowly edging LP’s Des Cullen for the last seat on foot of SF’s 2% surge in the latest poll. As with the previous poll, this could go either way.

Clare
FF 24% (1)
FG 43% (2)
LP 9.4%
Breen (Ind) 10.6% (1)
GP 4%

FF drop a seat, probably to FF gene-pool Indo and former TD Breen, although again LP are very close, but I have SF transfers splitting evenly enough between the two of them, which would be enough to keep Breen ahead, and probably be elected on LP transfers. All to play for though, and a good LP candidate could be a game-changer.

Cork E
FF 17.5% (1)
FG 32.5% (1)
LP 38% (2)
SF 9%
GP 2%
No surprise here, LP have been looking at taking the second FF seat here in most polls for the last year.

Cork NC
FF 7% (yes, yes, I know…)
FG 34% (2)
LP 29% (1)
SF 12% (1)
SP 6.4%
Slight surprise, perhaps, compared to previous projections as a result of the SF surge, LP fall somewhat short of the last seat to SF. This assumes SF do better on Mick Barry’s transfers (as Lynch would already be elected), although if Gilroy is ahead (or the vote is split evenly) Lynch might just pull in enough SP transfers to take a 2nd seat

Cork NW
FF 31% (1)
FG 46.7% (2)
LP 17.4%
GP 3%
SF 2%

Not far off the recent FF poll , which had FG “less than 50%”, although that poll had LP above, rather than below, 20%. Again, even on these figures LP aren’t out of it, depending on FF surplus and GP/SF transfers, but FG2 just shading it.

Cork SC
FF 14.6% (1)
FG 38.5% (2)
LP 27.7% (2)
SF 9%
GP 6%
Largely similar to a FG poll although FF about 7% lower, but holding onto the seat they’d get either way. I’d not write off Chris O’Leary though on these figures, particularly if he can get decent transfer from his former colleague “Twitter” O’Boyle.

Cork SW
FF 22% (1)
FG 41% (1)
LP 24% (1)
SF 8%
GP 5%
Safe FG1, safe-ish LP seat, and FF holding on against FG for the last seat.

Donegal NE
FF 28% (1)
FG 28% (1)
SF 23.5% (1)
LP 13%

SF take a seat from the retiring FF TD Jim McDaid. Another Senator J.Harte for the LP?

Donegal SW
FF 21.6%
FG 27.5% (1)
SF 31.7% (1)
LP 18.7% (1)

While FF do somewhat better than the GE polling here last week they still lose out to McBrearty for the last seat as in that poll, on SF and FG transfers. Strange times, although I’d not write off Mary Coughlan just yet.

Dublin C
FF 10%
FG 13%
LP 37% (2)
SF 15% (1)
OTH 22% (1)

Hard one to call, as Indo/Oth is always hard to translate into local constituencies. In this case, I’d call it as 2 LP reasonably confidently, then O’Sullivan and Mary-Lou edging ahead of Donghue on Indo transfers, although it would be very close, and I’d not write off Cieran Perry. FF pretty much out of it. Unless HE runs, of course….

Dublin MW
As I’ve commented previously, FG get very upset when I suggest they’re unlikely to go from zero seats to two here…..
FF 8%
FG 24% (1)
LP 38% (2)
SF 13.5% (1)
GP 7.4%

SF’s Eoin O’Broin, along with LP’s Robert Dowds, look good to take a seat here, from the GP and and Mary Harney, with FG’s Keating taking a seat from FF’s Chief whip John Curran. What odds on Frances FitzGerald to be the final ever Seanad leader?

Dublin N
FF 13%
FG 22% (1)
LP 31% (2)
GP 11.5% (1)
SP 10.6%
SF 6%

FF to lose 2 seats here, each to LP, who have an ample supply of councillors in Fingal. Sargant, on these figures, manages to hold on, staying ahead of FF1 on FF2 leakage, and then depending on FF transfers to stay ahead of SP’s Clare Daly. Very very close though, so I’d not be putting the house on anyone on the basis of this…. The Metro North issue in particular could see FF being more resilient to the Gilmore Gale in Swords

Dub NC
FF 13%
FG 33% (1)
LP 28% (1)
McGrath (IND) 15.5% (1)
SF 8%

LP take Sean Haughey’s seat, and Finian McGrath holds on from FF. Assumes that SF transfers favour him over FG2, although he’d also do better in FF transfers, so he’d be comfortable on these figures.

Dub NE
FF 10%
FG 27% (1)
LP 41% (2)
SF 17%

Tight context for the last seat (currently held by retiring FF TD Michael Woods) between LP2 and SF. While LP2 has yet to be decided, it’s most likely Killian Forde, and on these figures the former SF man is likely to take a seat against his former party colleague Larry O’Toole.

Dub NW
FF 14.5%
FG 13.4%
LP 46.3% (2)
SF 20% (1)

While there may be a degree of sympathy for Pat Carey after his recent savaging at the hands of Pat Rabbitte, it’s hard to see FF (or FG, for that matter) take a seat on these figures, unless the FF vote is more resilient in Dublin. Indeed, if LP run 3 candidates, LP 3 is likely to be ahead of the FG candidate, and when Mad Bill Tormey’s transfers are distributed, to be ahead of FF1. On these figures, they’d still probably lose the last seat to SF on FF transfers, but given this is a good poll for SF and FG and still the 2nd LP seat is safe, the argument against a 3rd LP candidate is becoming weaker….

Dublin Sth
FF 13% (1)
FG 36% (2)
LP 35% (2)
GP 7.4%
SF 5.8%

Fairly clear-cut, with 2 LP gains, 1 from FF (who have lost the late Seamus Brennan and are reportedly losing the ‘great’ Tom Kitt) and the other from Minister Eamon Ryan. FG hold onto their two seats, but don’t appear at the races for a third, whereas FF would be in the unusual position (this time) of having a new TD, unless they receive a refugee from Dun Laoghaire, which has ceded some of its territory, and where FF will go from 2 Ministers to 1 TD (it they’re lucky).

LP are safe enough on these figures, and may consider a 3 candidate strategy, given RedC isn’t their most generous polling company, and a third candidate could sweep up enough votes to keep LP3 ahead of Ryan after SF transfers, and challenge FF if the IMF business hits them badly. Either way, there’ll be LP Seanad leader Alex White (based in Rathfarnham), and one or two from Aidan Culhane (Dundrum), and Lettie McCarthy (Glencullen), both of whom led strong LP performances in last year’s LEs in their respective wards, and could be expected to poll strongly.

Dublin SC
FF 7%
FG 19% (1)
LP 39% (3)
SF 13% (1)
ULA/PBP 10%

FF collapse here (again, provided the swing in Dublin isn’t below average), FG steady, and LP who lost out on a 2nd seat here by 69 votes in ’07 (when 10% nationally) would get 3 seats, shading the last seat from Joan Collins, one of the original batch of “Militant Tendency” members expelled from LP, subsequently ‘eased out’ of that organisation, then Indo, then a member of the SWP-front “People Before Profit”, and a likely United Left Alliance candidate this time. Mind you, with a likely ticket of Eric Byrne, Michael Conaghan and Henry Upton, there will be fears that the lack of gender balance could see the scales tip towards Collins.

Dublin SE
FF 13% (1)
FG 24% (1)
LP 39% (2)
GP 9%
SF 6%

Not a million miles from the recent FG poll here. FF are 5% lower, but other than that, FG are 1% higher, LP 2% lower and GP 1% lower. 2 LP and 1 FG seem pretty certain at this stage, and the last seat is FF vs GP, with FF clear favourite at this stage, although the fallout of the IMF/GP pull out may make this harder to call than suggested by this poll. Only threat to LP is the poor vote split recorded in the FG poll, but on these figures Humphies would still be safe. If they drifted down to about 20% or so nationally, though, they’d need to split is more evenly.

Dublin SW
FF 9%
FG 25% (1)
LP 39% (2)
SF 19% (1)

FF lose both seats, probably with Charlie “Tallaman” O’Connor having the good sense to retire before polling, and the Lesser Minister Lenihen being given a lesson in natural selection. LP’s Eamonn Maloney and SF’s Sean Crowe appear safe bets to gain here. FG2 (if there is such a creature) will probably do no more than provide LP with any transfers required to get over the line.

Dublin W
FF 13.5%
FG 18.7% (1)
LP 43.8% (2)
ULA 16.4% (1)

The spreadsheet gives FF a boost her for the personal/sympathy factor, but on these figures, not be enough for the Minister for Finance to hold on, and it would appear unlikely that his stock has risen since the poll was taken. It’s still very close though, but I have LP2 taking the additional seat, and ULA/SP MEP Joe Higgins relieving FF of their only seat.

Needless to say, this would possibly be the story of the count.

Dun Laoghaire
FF 15% (1)
FG 28% (1)
LP 38% (2)
ULA 9%
SF 4%

This constituency loses a seat, as each of the Govt parties do, the second going to LP2, who appear too strong for ULA/PBP hopeful Richie Boyd-Barrett. Hard to call which FF Minister will hold on, but if she’s leader by then (as some are suggesting) one presumes it’d be Mary Hanafin. If not, my money would be on Andrews.

Galway E
FF 13%
FG 54% (3)
LP 18% (1)
SF 6%
IND 5%

FF look very low here, but they were below their national vote here last time also, and this time face a well balanced FG ticket and a rampant LP, whose leader hails from here. FF’s prospects would be enhanced if one of their (60 and 57 year old) TDs retire. I’d certainly not write them off, but they’ve a hell of a fight to hold onto a seat here, particularly if both outgoing TDs run.

Galway W
FF 12% (1)
FG 28% (2)
LP 24% (1)
SF 6%
GP 3%
Grealish 11% (1)

I’ve rebalanced the vote here a bit to take account for Micheal D not running on the LP ticket, and it’s the difference between one and two seats for them, which are now unlikely unless they woo back Indo Cllr Connolly. FF lose one of their seats (presumably Fahey) to FG.

Kerry N
FF 14%
FG 36% (1)
LP 18% (1)
SF 29% (1)

Already poor territory for FF, they are assailed on three fronts here, with FG already strong on the ground, LP with the “Spring” brand to catch their share of the Gilmore Gale, and SF boosted by recent events nationally. Hard to see FF holding on, but one never knows….

Kerry S
FF 20.4% (1)
FG 30% (1)
LP 24% (1)
Cap-wearer’s association 17.9%

A tight one, but I have “The Bull” O’Donoghue holding on here against the younger Healy-Rae, thereby showin’ that crowd in Dublin what they think of them…..

Kildare N
FF 10%
FG 27% (1)
LP 39% (2)
Murphy 13% (1)

FF collapse, not even at the races, losing seats to LP and former By-election victor Catherine Murphy. By the following election and eventual retirement of Emmet Stagg, I’d not be surprised to see her on the LP ticket in 2015.

Kildare S

FF 30% (1)
FG 24% (1)
LP 37% (1)

FG gain a (single) seat from FF, who hold up better here than most places. Even with the IMF coming in, it would appear that FF1 is safe enough. LP are short for a second seat, but have a quota and a half, and so would be well advised to run a sweeper.

Laois Offaly
FF 39% (2)
FG 37% (2)
LP 11.4% (1)
SF 10.3%

Even with the addition of a leaders bonus, FF drop one of their 3 seats here, which is keenly fought for by LP and SF. On these figures, LP should shade it, particularly with FG transfers a-going, but close enough. If Lp run 2 candidates, as mooted, apparently, I’d say SF could nudge ahead on these figures, unless they were really increasing the vote, and I’m not sure they’ve anyone available who’d bring such a big personal vote (and if they they, presumably s/he could get elected without using a sweeper….)

Limerick City
FF 17% (1)
FG 33% (1)
LP 37% (2)
SF 8%

FF lose (Peter) Power, with Willie O’Dea holding the sole FF seat (that’s if he can be bothered running). LP are the beneficiaries, with FG losing O’Donnell to the constituency revision. It wouldn’t take much of a swing for FG2 to edge ahead of FF though, particularly if O’Dea decided that he couldn’t be bothered…

Limerick County
FF 25.3% (1)
FG 47.8% (1)
LP 23.0% (1)
SF 2%
GP 1.8%

Very very close, but on these figures I’d say LP’s James Heffernan (who performed very impressively in the LEs , getting more votes in Kilmallock than in all of Limerick West in ’07) shades it, needing slightly fewer transfer, but FG will be fighting hard to pull in that gain. FF are also barely over the quota, and could lose another seat if their voters are unimpressed with the IMF moving in. One to watch.

Longford-Westmeath

FF 20.5% (1)
FG 33.9% (1)
LP 37.5% (2)
SF 6%

LP to gain from FF, with FG2 too far behind to make it up (unless they do very well on SF transfers). Perhaps from O’Rourke who it is said will be hanging up her boots.

Louth
FF 12% (0 + Ceann Comhairle)
FG 38% (2)
LP 19% (1)
SF 22% (1)
GP 5%

Big shock here if this came to pass. Dermot “Fiction” Ahern would lose out, with FG and LP gaining. SF would increase their vote substantially, despite fielding a blow-in rookie candidate who has never sat in a real parliament…. . 😉

I’d not write him off, but Ahern is in trouble. There’s not going to be more than 2 seats in the North of the county, and Adams and FG2 appear to be shading it on these figures. A way to go yet, and Ahern is a noted political street-fighter …. don’t be surprised in facts that might be in the possession of, say, the Minister for Justice, might be released to the intended detriment of the President of SF.

Mayo
FF 20% (1)
FG 57% (3)
LP 10.6% (1)
SF 9.0%

FF won a single seat here last time out, and while the return of the “Class Act” BCF saw them double their representation, the tide is out and they’re msot likely back at one TD. FG would hold their 3rd TD, and LP’s former Indo TD Jerry Cowley would be set to hold off a strong challenge from SF. I’d keep an eye out for former LP member Micahel Kilcoyle, who may be the dark horse here.

Meath E
FF 13%
FG 33% (2)
LP 32% (1)
SF 7%

FF to lose both seats, one each to LP and FG2. If LP were together enough to have 2 candidates they’d be competitive for a second seat, but word is that they won’t,. It would however be almost impossible for LP to fail to take a seat with this level of vote, no matter how many candidates they run.

Meath W
FF 19.4%
FG 38.8% (1)
LP 18.8% (1)
SF 17.8% (1)

Very tight, but on these figures FF would lose both seats, one to LP and one to SF. Given Noel Dempsey is one of these, that would be a major shock. FG2 would also be competitive, particularly if this poll is a blip for SF and they can nip ahead of them. Given this could see 5 candidates all around the 18-20% range fighting for 3 seats, it may be re-count territory….

Roscommon – S Leitrim
FF 19.2%
FG 45.6% (2)
LP 14.4% (1)
SF 14.2%
IND 5.4%

FF go to zero seats here, with FG taking 2, and LP staying ahead of SF on Indo transfers (Ming Flanagan fishing from the same electoral pool as LP’s former Indo, Cllr John Kelly) and then getting enough of a boost from SF to reel in FF. Very close though, although on these figures, with the IMF bailout, it’s SF rather than FF that would appear to be LP’s main threat.

Sligo- N Leitrim
FF 20.9% (1)
FG 45.8% (2)
LP 13.1%
SF 17.8%

Despite a left/republican vote of over 30%, these figures see SF pull ahead of LP, and then fail to get sufficient transfers to pull in FF who are just too far ahead. LP, fwiw, would probably succeed if they took 3% from SF, but on these figures they’re just not going to pull it off. Dark horse may be veteran ex-LP Marxist Declan Bree, who is reportedly going to run for the ULA.

Tipperary N
FF 16%
FG 22% (1)
LP 19% (1)
Lowry (35%)

Yeah, I know…. less I say about this the better……

Tipperary Sth
FF 26% (1)
FG 27% (1)
LP 18.5%
Healy (IND) 17% (1)
SF 6.5%

FF hold a seat out of 2, probably Mattie, although if the IMF factor makes a difference they might not. LP losing last seat on these figures, on SF transfers to Seamus Healey, although I suspect that’ll depend how much indos get squeezed on the day….

Waterford
FF 15% (1)
FG 35% (2)
LP 29% (1)
SF 11%

FF lose the seat that went with Martin Cullen to FG, who fends off competition from LP2 and SF. The sole FF seat would be in jeopardy if their vote dropped further. LP would be competitive if they managed to recruit local Indo Gilligan, but all the signs are that they’re not going to get that together….

Wexford
FF 22% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 26% (1)
SF 12% (1)

FF lose a seat, although on these figures it’s to SF, rather than LP2 who they pip at the post. Very close though, and if LP could split their vote reasonably evenly (I’m assuming they won’t) they’d probably pull it off.

Wicklow
FF 11%
FG 34% (2)
LP 28% (2)
Behan (Ind) 10% (1)
SF 9%
GP 5%

LP take a seat from Dick Roche, and Behan holds the seat he won under the FF banner last time out. Should Behan no run, the 5th seat is wide open, but probably FF the likeliest to take it.

Well, that’s that. As the election approaches I’ll be refining the local adjustments further to incorporate any credible local polls, and also a weighted average of regional breakdowns of the national polls, and so the next projection you see will be further fine-tuned. Early experimentation shows no overall change in terms of national seat projections, but slightly more resilience in the FF-Dublin vote (with less outside Dublin) and a very slightly bigger increase in LP outside Dublin, with less of an increase in the capital. Net effect as I say is very small and well within the margin of error of the polls (c. 3 seats falling the other way), but worth doing.

Thanks for reading!

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Written by Dotski

November 22, 2010 at 11:57 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

31 Responses

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  1. Dublin MW — I’d be inclined to think the PBPA could get it instead of SF. Gino Kenny is local, and has bases in two areas (one where he grew up and one where he now lives); Eoin is new. (But my doubt may be because Ó Broin isn’t looking for my and my neighbours’ votes and is concentrating his energy elsewhere.)

    Tomboktu

    November 23, 2010 at 12:54 am

    • True, but SF will have a national coverage with Adams, and I can see O’Broin attracting a few outside canvassers. Also the attacks on SF if doing well by the Indo may in fact help them.

      Dotski

      November 23, 2010 at 9:28 am

  2. Wow. Gone: Dermot Ahern, Noel Dempsey, Mary Coughlan, Brian Lenihan, Conor Lenihan, Dick Roche, John Curran, Sean Huaghey, Pat Carey, Unctious Mulchahy (yippee), Mary Wallace, Áine Brady, Máire Hoctor. Wow, wow, wow.

    Tomboktu

    November 23, 2010 at 1:14 am

  3. Wexford is a prediction I wouldnt agree with for SF. John Dwyer, who’s an ex member and current town councillor, is running for the ULA.

    It’s funny though that you can double your seats with 2%.

    RepublicanSocialist1798

    November 23, 2010 at 1:18 am

    • Didn’t know Dwyer had signed up to ULA – thanks, I’ll revisit the based figures there for the next projection.

      Yes, the 2% issue – SF are at a threshold in a lot of places where between 8-11% there’s a rake of seats where they’re competing (largely with LP) that could go either way. It could be a make or break GE for them

      Dotski

      November 23, 2010 at 9:26 am

  4. The Shinners won’t win in wexford. They have no passable candidate and their organisation has fallen apart since ’07. More of a chance of FG winning 3 than Labour winning 2 but I still fancy FF to hold on if John Browne runs. The pond life down here vote for him automatically while his stunts have had the effect of coalescing the die-hards like me around him.

    Labour’s big problem is the quota squater Howlin.
    You’re predictions for Labour are too optimistic and has their vote too broadly spread. I see too much of their vote being wasted by 19,000 vote wonders like our Brendan for them to win the kind of seats you’re talking about. They’ll win 40 seats and the Blueshirts will win 70.

    We’ll be back!!!

    Fianna Fáil are great

    November 23, 2010 at 6:21 am

  5. Great username, btw 😉

    I’d not write off SF in Wexford just yet, although this is only one poll. If you think FF can hold both seats in the face of a poll where they are at less than half of their ’07 performance, you’re probably not in a great position to talk about anyone else being optimistic, mind!

    Dotski

    November 23, 2010 at 9:23 am

    • As a Shinner myself, must say that wexford is a really long shot. The organisation is pulling itself together again to be fair and a nice few younger people about, but no really presentable candidate, and malcontent extraodinaire Dwyer running I really cant see it.

      Laois offaly cant see LP ahead of SF with SF having a fairly established candidate known and popular in Laois, also Gino Kenny hasnt a hope.

      Otherwise I appreciate its a speadsheet so in that context its hard to get the very local slants right, its a very solid job of work, fair play.

      PS i think 14 is beyond most shinners wildest expectations currently, hope too many dont see it!

      Blissett

      November 24, 2010 at 2:23 am

      • Thanks for the input Blisset (named after the footballer or the witers of the book “Q”?
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q_%28novel%29

        The SF Wexford stuff in particular – would you say that ULA are likely to take a fair bit of the SF vote?

        On the 14, it possibly sounds a lot, but when you consider that the votes, if they turn out, have to be somewhere, they are going to turn into seats in places that may surprise you. Certainly I remember LP members being shocked with some of the seats they took in ’92.

        Dotski

        November 27, 2010 at 6:27 pm

    • Don’t write FF’s chances in Wexford just yet. If FF were to win 20% nationally will mean perhaps 27% in a place like Wexford. FG have won 2 seats with that kind of vote in the past. Connick should get some votes from Dwyer who’s running under the ULA banner as he has in the past and as I said, John Browne has a hold of people down here. He’s played his sacking by Biffo to a T.

      This is an election in which you’ll see more of a concentration of partisan votes geographically. That’s bad news for us in Dublin but it will mean 2 seats in 5 seaters lke Wexford and perhaps holding 2 in 4 seaters like Westmeath where the vote is holding up better than elsewhere.

      I’ve been canvassing and it’s not that bad.
      I thinks the chances are better than fair that we’ll come second in terms of votes. We definately will in seats.

      Fianna Fáil are great

      November 26, 2010 at 6:06 am

      • Even if they got 27% (and I’d not put the house on it just yet) they’d still be over 6% short of two quotas, and pretty transfer repellent. Personally I think to take 2 seats here FF need some sort of national fightback

        Still, we’ll see, eh?

        Dotski

        November 27, 2010 at 6:31 pm

  6. Hi Dotski

    Thank you for your excellent predications. I would like to comment on Dublin South Central. The party percentages in the 2009 local elections were as follows.

    Lab 33%
    PBP 15%
    FG 15%
    FF 14%
    SF 10%
    Gr 5%
    Oth 7%

    note these figures are for the whole of DSC which comprises of three Dublin City wards and 2 polling stations located in South County Dublin.

    The SF vote includes Louise Mininhan who shortly after the election resigned from SF.

    The others were mainly Ballyfermot Jackson who is unlikely to contest the next GE

    The Labour figures include all their three potential candidates Byrne, Upton and Conaghan.

    This will be a lot closer than you predict above

    Activist

    November 23, 2010 at 11:00 pm

    • HI Activist,

      Many thanks for those figures – as you know my base is largely informed by the GE results, but where there’s LE evidence of additional swing I try to consider how it would influence.

      I believe that Collins is a big factor and could win a seat if the campaign went well for her, I presume as a ULA candidate, the big problem is that the OTH figure in National polls includes the likes of Lowrey – basically unless ULA are presented as a polling option, it’s very hard to have a figure for how they’re doing other than the last time out.

      It OTH goes above 8% or so, I do think there’s a responsibility for RedC etc to poll for ULA and their constituent parties – in fairness they are barely set up so they can’t be blamed for not doing it to date, but I think in the next poll they should at least as “OTH” voters who the ‘OTH’ is, and if ULA/PBP/SWP/SP resisters, they shoudl separate that vote out, as it may be ahead of the GP at this stage.

      Dotski

      November 24, 2010 at 1:15 am

  7. I gotta say, watching things down in Limerick, I don’t understand this sentiment that O’ Dea “might not be bothered running”. He’s pretty much been doing preliminary campaigning for weeks, openly talking about an election in March (though he said that a few weeks ago…)

    HandsofBlue

    November 24, 2010 at 6:38 pm

    • Ta, that’s interesting. If he does, I have to say it’s hard to see Power winning, which isn’t in FF’s long term interests, IMO. They’ll not get a 2nd seat here either way, and won’t be in Govt, so they’d be better off with a potential front bencher

      Dotski

      November 27, 2010 at 6:29 pm

  8. Laois – Offaly
    Labour don’t have a hope in hell of taking a seat here.

    Michael Moloney

    November 26, 2010 at 7:06 pm

    • Well, I remember being told that in ’92 when they were polling about half what they are now, so I’d not rule it out just yet…. they do need a candidate though, there are a couple of candidates to choose from, but I’d not be the best judge of the strongest.

      Dotski

      November 27, 2010 at 6:14 pm

  9. Donegal SW

    Given the result today from the By Election, Labour’s not going to do business with Frank McBrearty’s come the General Election.

    The Gilmore Gale will have to move up a notch or two into a hurricane to get Frank McB seat here.

    Michael Moloney

    November 26, 2010 at 7:14 pm

    • If you look back at by-election results in the past, you’ll find that they’re not a great indicator of how a GE will go – ask Catherine Murphy, for example, or the DL victors in the ’92-97 period. Different factors emerge, generally who is the best placed anti-Govt candidate to take the seat, and Doherty had that accolade a long time ago. Certainly I had him as a very strong favourite from before he even won the court case. McBrearty was in my mind was tactically naieve to describe the B/E as “a waste of time” in the final week, as this was always going to depress turn out among those likely to vote for him.

      Despite all this, and generally not great performances on national media, he got 3.6 times the LP vote from ’07, in an election where FG got about 0.8 of their previous vote.

      But before the bye-election campaign started I wasn’t projecting them to take a seat here (except in one poll that had SF at 4% nationally) and I don’t see anything has happened here that’ll change that. I adjusted the based following the RedC poll, but I think I’ll adjust it back now to what I had it originally, as it would appear it was closer to the likely real result beforehand.

      Dotski

      November 27, 2010 at 6:23 pm

  10. hi dotski
    i always like reading these analyses, and i can see an awful lot of sense in many of your projections.
    however, i can also see why some of the predictions annoy posters on P.ie, particularly FG.
    i think some of the Dublin constituencies may support that point of view.
    for example, in the post, you dismiss the chances of FG winning 2 extra seats in Dublin NW but then go on to predict 2 extra LP seats in THREE (!!!) separate constituencies: Nth, Sth and SC, and a possible 4th in MW
    i agree LP is set for big gains in Dublin, but on that scale?
    by the way, as mentioned in response to a previous analysis on P.ie, i acknowledge your rationale for prediction for Cork E, but everything i hear on the ground contradicts those numbers and supports 2 FG, 1 LP, 1 FF

    bprob

    November 27, 2010 at 10:32 pm

    • Hi bprob,

      Nice to see one of the saner posters from p.ie!

      I presume you meant Dublin MW for FG. I’d not write it off completely, but its very hard to see a party go from zero seats to two when they’ve not seen an extremely big increase in their vote nationally, and FG haven’t, they are at best up a quarter. It happened to LP in Dublin NE when they doubled their vote in 1992, and given they are trebling their vote nationally at present they are well placed to do similar this time – particularly with such an anti-incumbent mood about.

      FG’s problem in DMW is that even the combined FG/Keating vote in 2007 was less than a quota (19.23%) and some of Keating’s vote would have been Indo and so wouldn’t travel with him. This has been (somewhat bitterly!) disputed by at least 1 FG poster, but the evidence is there. In 07, only 10.1% of Keatings transfers went to FG. Now I expect a lot more than than will follow him, but a fair few won’t. An indicator would be that in ’04 LEs, the combined Keating/FG vote in Lucan ward was 32.1%. In 09 it may have increased to 35.3%, but that was a significant under-performance of the FG swing – if you could just add Keating’s vote to the FG base, they should have been closer to 38% on the national swing (remember, that’s before you even take into account the dissappearance of the PDs). Also they’ve concentrated on how well FG did in Lucan (still well short of 40%) but ignored how FG did in Clondalkin, which had as many (slightly more actually) votes cast. On the basis of the LEs, they’d be very fortunate to be North of 30%, and it’s hard to see where they’re going to get the transfers from.

      On Cork E, I’d not say LP2 home and dry at all, but if there’s anything in the polls they must be competitive, and on current figures would appear to be heading for that second seat, although may end up depending on SF transfers. If they’re not pulling a proportional swing in places like this, they’d have to be getting it somewhere else to a greater degree than the national swing, and there’s only so much they can get out of Dublin!

      Here, they had 2.1 times their national average here last time out, and are at least 27% in the polls nationally. Even if they were only 1.3 times that now (which would be a serious under-performance), they’d be over 35%, and with about 10% between SF and GP, it’s hard to see them falling short. To lose, they’d really need to be barely above their national average, and that would surprise me, tbh.

      Dotski

      November 28, 2010 at 9:20 am

      • not sure if i’m that sane.
        i’ve grown prone to roaring at the television lately, and am sorely tempted to write a long pamphlet on the role of the bilderburg group and opus dei in our financial woes, (though considering the verbal gymnastics being performed by ministers denying they lied about IMF negotiations, perhaps the Jesuits were the real bad guys):-)

        yes, i meant Dublin MW. i’d agree that two seats there are unlikely. i just felt that it was hard to disagree with some P.ie posters who see some pro-Labour bias in the model, with the Labour predictions of +2 in 3 other constituencies, but your rationale, as you lay it out above, seems absolutely sound.

        However, sound doesn’t equal correct.

        your predictions are based on assuming the LP figures in the poll are realistic, and that is an awfully big assumption. the predictions are only as strong as the polling figures. i’m afraid that LP AND FG are going to get an awful shock when the general election comes around.

        perhaps writing a slightly longer explanation in future analyses, addressing controversial constituency predictions, along the lines of your reply to me, would dispel some of those challengers on here and P.ie

        with regards to Cork E, LP’s biggest problem isn’t the percentage they are getting, (which whether you believe the increase in the polls or not, is excellent). LP’s major obstacle to getting a second seat is the second candidate: John Mulvhill. i think he will turn out to be a self-inflicted wound in Cork E in the next election

        bprob

        November 28, 2010 at 2:41 pm

        • all sounds very sane to me! 😉

          I think it’s a good idea re a more detailed outline, will get something up on that in the next while. On the polls, yes, it’s true that my projections are pretty much based on the polls being accurate, although as I outline here https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/10/31/who-fears-to-speak-of-92/ polls for GEs are generally pretty accurate, even when showing a big swing from the previous election.

          Am looking forward to having the actual election, have to say, if for no other reason than to put the arguments to bed!!

          d

          Dotski

          November 28, 2010 at 4:52 pm

  11. How do you read the decreased turn-out in Donegal compared with the GE? At work on Friday, one guy put the drop in FFs vote down to those who stayed at home, rather than switched voters. Does than make sense?

    Tomboktu

    November 28, 2010 at 3:13 pm

    • Hard to say without some “after the election” poll which asked ppl who they voted for in ’07 and ’10 and doing a cross-analysis. Going by the RedC poll, the FF share was actually slightly higher than expected. On polling day over on p.ie I commented that McBreaty’s comment agreeing with Sweeny that the election was a “waste of time” was tactically naieve and people inclined towards him would be less likely to turn out as a result.

      There’s no proof that this was the case, as his drop in vote (from 15% in the poll to 10% on the day, the only move outside the m.o.e) may have been a soft LP/SF vote switching to the leading left candidate as can happen in bye-election, but it was commented on p.ie at one stage that turnout in the FFers area was a sixth higher than Stranorlar. It would however appear likely to have been a contributing factor, which would also nudge up the percentage share (or those who turned out) of the other candidates

      Dotski

      November 28, 2010 at 4:48 pm

  12. Dowds and Tuffy (J, not E) were selected for Labour in Dublin MW tonight.

    Tomboktu

    November 29, 2010 at 11:03 pm

    • Ta for that. Their most sensible combination I think.

      Dotski

      November 30, 2010 at 5:49 pm

  13. […] put them in the top 5 but this usually sends FGers into apoplexy I've got a rather long comment here that outlines why I don't think FG will take the seat, if anyone's interested… […]

  14. hi guys, just came across this site, excellent, Dublin South Central, will throw up a couple of surprises, expect Catherine Byrne to be de-selected, a new candidate, is Jason o’Callaghan, nearly certain to be selected, and either Colm Brophy or Ruiri McGinley to be second candidate.

    Mulcahy will bomb, never seen between elections, Ardagh has cancer problems.

    I fancy labour to take top three seats, FG and SF safe

    insider information

    December 9, 2010 at 7:21 pm

    • Hi II,

      Cheers for the kind words, and also the FG gossip. it would be interesting if Byrne lost out, as she has a different appeal to her party.

      D

      Dotski

      December 9, 2010 at 9:30 pm


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