RedC – Nov 2010 projections

Well, as polls in the 2009-2010 era of Irish politics go, that wasn’t too exciting (unless you’re a SF supporter). Every party within the m.o.e. of the previous RedC. How to make this interesting….. Oh, I’ll just have to get the Greens to announce they’re leaving govt… 😉

Sorry for the delay in getting this up – if I was a traffic whore I’d have got it up earlier today, given the amount of people on p.ie, but it wasn’t really feasible, alas.

As established, RedC generally have significantly higher ratings for FG and FF than all the other companies (and to a lesser extent SF and GP) and lower ratings for LP and OTH. So a poll that shows FF at a new low, and LP at their joint highest rating ever (and SF at their highest since March 2009) might sound good news for the Govt. However, the poll was largely conducted before the IMF’s role became apparent, and before Pat Rabbitte became a Youtube star

The most obvious movement is for SF. There are a few factors which can be accredited to this net 2% movement.

1. The announcement that Gerry Adams will context Louth in the GE. Locally, there are probably pros and cons to this decision – there’ll be ppl voting for him that didn’t vote for Morgan, but there are others who would object to someone coming in from outside the constituency (particularly someone with a lesser grasp of economic policy…). However, for all his shortcomings, Adams is their leader, and if he can perform better than he did in ’07 (and I suspect he can) he can come across as more relevant, and a bigger hitter than the worthy but dull O’Caolain.

2.Pearse Doherty has performed very well as a candidate in the DSW bye-election. They have been fortunate that the issue of it’s delay has arisen in a constituency where they have such a good candidate, and the national exposure of Doherty has, I have no doubt, resulted in a fair portion of the floating LP-to-SF vote (which is substantial) thinking more positively of SF than Frank McBreaty’s party.

3.SF are talking about dealing with the deficit over a much longer period than LP, and Gilmore distanced himself from SF’s economic policies in his Late Late Show interview. This may have been prudent from his p.o.v. for fear of votes drifting to FF/FG, but it presumably saw some movement from LP to SF.

As I said yesterday, the spreadsheet threw out the following projections (movement from last month’s RedC in brackets);

FG 61 (no change)
LP 55 (-2)
FF 26 (-1)
SF 14 (+7)
GP 1 (-2)
OTH 9 (-2)

Obviously, only FG/LP (116 seats, majority of c.66) or FG/FF (87 seats, majority of c.8) would be possible govts from these outcome. My money would be on FG/LP, with FG getting Taoiseach and 8 Ministers, but LP getting Finance and Foreign Affairs, and pretty much 50% of the Programme for Govt). Or rather, the IMF getting 90%, and FG and LP getting 5% apiece…

So, what would a uniform swing produce in each constituency? Well, the spreadsheet suggests….

Carlow-Kilkenny
FF 27% (2)
FG 37% (2)
LP 21% (1)
SF 8%
GP 7%
Two safe FG seats, one safe each for FF and LP, and the last seat between FF2 and LP2 (plus very long shot chance for FG3 if they did better on GP/SF transfers). While LP would do well from SF transfers and some GP voters, and FG3 should then assist LP2, I assume that enough GP votes go to the Govt partners to stop LP pulling off that second seat.

Cavan-Monaghan
FF 18% (1)
FG 36.5% (2)
LP 8%
SF 29% (2)
GP 2.5%
Connolly (IND) 5%

Those who’ve followed the IPR projections will know that this constituency is shaping up for a fight between LP and SF’s Cavan candidate for the last seat. The previous time I gave it to LP, but this time I have SF2 very (very) narrowly edging LP’s Des Cullen for the last seat on foot of SF’s 2% surge in the latest poll. As with the previous poll, this could go either way.

Clare
FF 24% (1)
FG 43% (2)
LP 9.4%
Breen (Ind) 10.6% (1)
GP 4%

FF drop a seat, probably to FF gene-pool Indo and former TD Breen, although again LP are very close, but I have SF transfers splitting evenly enough between the two of them, which would be enough to keep Breen ahead, and probably be elected on LP transfers. All to play for though, and a good LP candidate could be a game-changer.

Cork E
FF 17.5% (1)
FG 32.5% (1)
LP 38% (2)
SF 9%
GP 2%
No surprise here, LP have been looking at taking the second FF seat here in most polls for the last year.

Cork NC
FF 7% (yes, yes, I know…)
FG 34% (2)
LP 29% (1)
SF 12% (1)
SP 6.4%
Slight surprise, perhaps, compared to previous projections as a result of the SF surge, LP fall somewhat short of the last seat to SF. This assumes SF do better on Mick Barry’s transfers (as Lynch would already be elected), although if Gilroy is ahead (or the vote is split evenly) Lynch might just pull in enough SP transfers to take a 2nd seat

Cork NW
FF 31% (1)
FG 46.7% (2)
LP 17.4%
GP 3%
SF 2%

Not far off the recent FF poll , which had FG “less than 50%”, although that poll had LP above, rather than below, 20%. Again, even on these figures LP aren’t out of it, depending on FF surplus and GP/SF transfers, but FG2 just shading it.

Cork SC
FF 14.6% (1)
FG 38.5% (2)
LP 27.7% (2)
SF 9%
GP 6%
Largely similar to a FG poll although FF about 7% lower, but holding onto the seat they’d get either way. I’d not write off Chris O’Leary though on these figures, particularly if he can get decent transfer from his former colleague “Twitter” O’Boyle.

Cork SW
FF 22% (1)
FG 41% (1)
LP 24% (1)
SF 8%
GP 5%
Safe FG1, safe-ish LP seat, and FF holding on against FG for the last seat.

Donegal NE
FF 28% (1)
FG 28% (1)
SF 23.5% (1)
LP 13%

SF take a seat from the retiring FF TD Jim McDaid. Another Senator J.Harte for the LP?

Donegal SW
FF 21.6%
FG 27.5% (1)
SF 31.7% (1)
LP 18.7% (1)

While FF do somewhat better than the GE polling here last week they still lose out to McBrearty for the last seat as in that poll, on SF and FG transfers. Strange times, although I’d not write off Mary Coughlan just yet.

Dublin C
FF 10%
FG 13%
LP 37% (2)
SF 15% (1)
OTH 22% (1)

Hard one to call, as Indo/Oth is always hard to translate into local constituencies. In this case, I’d call it as 2 LP reasonably confidently, then O’Sullivan and Mary-Lou edging ahead of Donghue on Indo transfers, although it would be very close, and I’d not write off Cieran Perry. FF pretty much out of it. Unless HE runs, of course….

Dublin MW
As I’ve commented previously, FG get very upset when I suggest they’re unlikely to go from zero seats to two here…..
FF 8%
FG 24% (1)
LP 38% (2)
SF 13.5% (1)
GP 7.4%

SF’s Eoin O’Broin, along with LP’s Robert Dowds, look good to take a seat here, from the GP and and Mary Harney, with FG’s Keating taking a seat from FF’s Chief whip John Curran. What odds on Frances FitzGerald to be the final ever Seanad leader?

Dublin N
FF 13%
FG 22% (1)
LP 31% (2)
GP 11.5% (1)
SP 10.6%
SF 6%

FF to lose 2 seats here, each to LP, who have an ample supply of councillors in Fingal. Sargant, on these figures, manages to hold on, staying ahead of FF1 on FF2 leakage, and then depending on FF transfers to stay ahead of SP’s Clare Daly. Very very close though, so I’d not be putting the house on anyone on the basis of this…. The Metro North issue in particular could see FF being more resilient to the Gilmore Gale in Swords

Dub NC
FF 13%
FG 33% (1)
LP 28% (1)
McGrath (IND) 15.5% (1)
SF 8%

LP take Sean Haughey’s seat, and Finian McGrath holds on from FF. Assumes that SF transfers favour him over FG2, although he’d also do better in FF transfers, so he’d be comfortable on these figures.

Dub NE
FF 10%
FG 27% (1)
LP 41% (2)
SF 17%

Tight context for the last seat (currently held by retiring FF TD Michael Woods) between LP2 and SF. While LP2 has yet to be decided, it’s most likely Killian Forde, and on these figures the former SF man is likely to take a seat against his former party colleague Larry O’Toole.

Dub NW
FF 14.5%
FG 13.4%
LP 46.3% (2)
SF 20% (1)

While there may be a degree of sympathy for Pat Carey after his recent savaging at the hands of Pat Rabbitte, it’s hard to see FF (or FG, for that matter) take a seat on these figures, unless the FF vote is more resilient in Dublin. Indeed, if LP run 3 candidates, LP 3 is likely to be ahead of the FG candidate, and when Mad Bill Tormey’s transfers are distributed, to be ahead of FF1. On these figures, they’d still probably lose the last seat to SF on FF transfers, but given this is a good poll for SF and FG and still the 2nd LP seat is safe, the argument against a 3rd LP candidate is becoming weaker….

Dublin Sth
FF 13% (1)
FG 36% (2)
LP 35% (2)
GP 7.4%
SF 5.8%

Fairly clear-cut, with 2 LP gains, 1 from FF (who have lost the late Seamus Brennan and are reportedly losing the ‘great’ Tom Kitt) and the other from Minister Eamon Ryan. FG hold onto their two seats, but don’t appear at the races for a third, whereas FF would be in the unusual position (this time) of having a new TD, unless they receive a refugee from Dun Laoghaire, which has ceded some of its territory, and where FF will go from 2 Ministers to 1 TD (it they’re lucky).

LP are safe enough on these figures, and may consider a 3 candidate strategy, given RedC isn’t their most generous polling company, and a third candidate could sweep up enough votes to keep LP3 ahead of Ryan after SF transfers, and challenge FF if the IMF business hits them badly. Either way, there’ll be LP Seanad leader Alex White (based in Rathfarnham), and one or two from Aidan Culhane (Dundrum), and Lettie McCarthy (Glencullen), both of whom led strong LP performances in last year’s LEs in their respective wards, and could be expected to poll strongly.

Dublin SC
FF 7%
FG 19% (1)
LP 39% (3)
SF 13% (1)
ULA/PBP 10%

FF collapse here (again, provided the swing in Dublin isn’t below average), FG steady, and LP who lost out on a 2nd seat here by 69 votes in ’07 (when 10% nationally) would get 3 seats, shading the last seat from Joan Collins, one of the original batch of “Militant Tendency” members expelled from LP, subsequently ‘eased out’ of that organisation, then Indo, then a member of the SWP-front “People Before Profit”, and a likely United Left Alliance candidate this time. Mind you, with a likely ticket of Eric Byrne, Michael Conaghan and Henry Upton, there will be fears that the lack of gender balance could see the scales tip towards Collins.

Dublin SE
FF 13% (1)
FG 24% (1)
LP 39% (2)
GP 9%
SF 6%

Not a million miles from the recent FG poll here. FF are 5% lower, but other than that, FG are 1% higher, LP 2% lower and GP 1% lower. 2 LP and 1 FG seem pretty certain at this stage, and the last seat is FF vs GP, with FF clear favourite at this stage, although the fallout of the IMF/GP pull out may make this harder to call than suggested by this poll. Only threat to LP is the poor vote split recorded in the FG poll, but on these figures Humphies would still be safe. If they drifted down to about 20% or so nationally, though, they’d need to split is more evenly.

Dublin SW
FF 9%
FG 25% (1)
LP 39% (2)
SF 19% (1)

FF lose both seats, probably with Charlie “Tallaman” O’Connor having the good sense to retire before polling, and the Lesser Minister Lenihen being given a lesson in natural selection. LP’s Eamonn Maloney and SF’s Sean Crowe appear safe bets to gain here. FG2 (if there is such a creature) will probably do no more than provide LP with any transfers required to get over the line.

Dublin W
FF 13.5%
FG 18.7% (1)
LP 43.8% (2)
ULA 16.4% (1)

The spreadsheet gives FF a boost her for the personal/sympathy factor, but on these figures, not be enough for the Minister for Finance to hold on, and it would appear unlikely that his stock has risen since the poll was taken. It’s still very close though, but I have LP2 taking the additional seat, and ULA/SP MEP Joe Higgins relieving FF of their only seat.

Needless to say, this would possibly be the story of the count.

Dun Laoghaire
FF 15% (1)
FG 28% (1)
LP 38% (2)
ULA 9%
SF 4%

This constituency loses a seat, as each of the Govt parties do, the second going to LP2, who appear too strong for ULA/PBP hopeful Richie Boyd-Barrett. Hard to call which FF Minister will hold on, but if she’s leader by then (as some are suggesting) one presumes it’d be Mary Hanafin. If not, my money would be on Andrews.

Galway E
FF 13%
FG 54% (3)
LP 18% (1)
SF 6%
IND 5%

FF look very low here, but they were below their national vote here last time also, and this time face a well balanced FG ticket and a rampant LP, whose leader hails from here. FF’s prospects would be enhanced if one of their (60 and 57 year old) TDs retire. I’d certainly not write them off, but they’ve a hell of a fight to hold onto a seat here, particularly if both outgoing TDs run.

Galway W
FF 12% (1)
FG 28% (2)
LP 24% (1)
SF 6%
GP 3%
Grealish 11% (1)

I’ve rebalanced the vote here a bit to take account for Micheal D not running on the LP ticket, and it’s the difference between one and two seats for them, which are now unlikely unless they woo back Indo Cllr Connolly. FF lose one of their seats (presumably Fahey) to FG.

Kerry N
FF 14%
FG 36% (1)
LP 18% (1)
SF 29% (1)

Already poor territory for FF, they are assailed on three fronts here, with FG already strong on the ground, LP with the “Spring” brand to catch their share of the Gilmore Gale, and SF boosted by recent events nationally. Hard to see FF holding on, but one never knows….

Kerry S
FF 20.4% (1)
FG 30% (1)
LP 24% (1)
Cap-wearer’s association 17.9%

A tight one, but I have “The Bull” O’Donoghue holding on here against the younger Healy-Rae, thereby showin’ that crowd in Dublin what they think of them…..

Kildare N
FF 10%
FG 27% (1)
LP 39% (2)
Murphy 13% (1)

FF collapse, not even at the races, losing seats to LP and former By-election victor Catherine Murphy. By the following election and eventual retirement of Emmet Stagg, I’d not be surprised to see her on the LP ticket in 2015.

Kildare S
FF 30% (1)
FG 24% (1)
LP 37% (1)

FG gain a (single) seat from FF, who hold up better here than most places. Even with the IMF coming in, it would appear that FF1 is safe enough. LP are short for a second seat, but have a quota and a half, and so would be well advised to run a sweeper.

Laois Offaly
FF 39% (2)
FG 37% (2)
LP 11.4% (1)
SF 10.3%

Even with the addition of a leaders bonus, FF drop one of their 3 seats here, which is keenly fought for by LP and SF. On these figures, LP should shade it, particularly with FG transfers a-going, but close enough. If Lp run 2 candidates, as mooted, apparently, I’d say SF could nudge ahead on these figures, unless they were really increasing the vote, and I’m not sure they’ve anyone available who’d bring such a big personal vote (and if they they, presumably s/he could get elected without using a sweeper….)

Limerick City
FF 17% (1)
FG 33% (1)
LP 37% (2)
SF 8%

FF lose (Peter) Power, with Willie O’Dea holding the sole FF seat (that’s if he can be bothered running). LP are the beneficiaries, with FG losing O’Donnell to the constituency revision. It wouldn’t take much of a swing for FG2 to edge ahead of FF though, particularly if O’Dea decided that he couldn’t be bothered…

Limerick County
FF 25.3% (1)
FG 47.8% (1)
LP 23.0% (1)
SF 2%
GP 1.8%

Very very close, but on these figures I’d say LP’s James Heffernan (who performed very impressively in the LEs , getting more votes in Kilmallock than in all of Limerick West in ’07) shades it, needing slightly fewer transfer, but FG will be fighting hard to pull in that gain. FF are also barely over the quota, and could lose another seat if their voters are unimpressed with the IMF moving in. One to watch.

Longford-Westmeath
FF 20.5% (1)
FG 33.9% (1)
LP 37.5% (2)
SF 6%

LP to gain from FF, with FG2 too far behind to make it up (unless they do very well on SF transfers). Perhaps from O’Rourke who it is said will be hanging up her boots.

Louth
FF 12% (0 + Ceann Comhairle)
FG 38% (2)
LP 19% (1)
SF 22% (1)
GP 5%

Big shock here if this came to pass. Dermot “Fiction” Ahern would lose out, with FG and LP gaining. SF would increase their vote substantially, despite fielding a blow-in rookie candidate who has never sat in a real parliament…. . 😉

I’d not write him off, but Ahern is in trouble. There’s not going to be more than 2 seats in the North of the county, and Adams and FG2 appear to be shading it on these figures. A way to go yet, and Ahern is a noted political street-fighter …. don’t be surprised in facts that might be in the possession of, say, the Minister for Justice, might be released to the intended detriment of the President of SF.

Mayo
FF 20% (1)
FG 57% (3)
LP 10.6% (1)
SF 9.0%

FF won a single seat here last time out, and while the return of the “Class Act” BCF saw them double their representation, the tide is out and they’re msot likely back at one TD. FG would hold their 3rd TD, and LP’s former Indo TD Jerry Cowley would be set to hold off a strong challenge from SF. I’d keep an eye out for former LP member Micahel Kilcoyle, who may be the dark horse here.

Meath E
FF 13%
FG 33% (2)
LP 32% (1)
SF 7%

FF to lose both seats, one each to LP and FG2. If LP were together enough to have 2 candidates they’d be competitive for a second seat, but word is that they won’t,. It would however be almost impossible for LP to fail to take a seat with this level of vote, no matter how many candidates they run.

Meath W
FF 19.4%
FG 38.8% (1)
LP 18.8% (1)
SF 17.8% (1)

Very tight, but on these figures FF would lose both seats, one to LP and one to SF. Given Noel Dempsey is one of these, that would be a major shock. FG2 would also be competitive, particularly if this poll is a blip for SF and they can nip ahead of them. Given this could see 5 candidates all around the 18-20% range fighting for 3 seats, it may be re-count territory….

Roscommon – S Leitrim
FF 19.2%
FG 45.6% (2)
LP 14.4% (1)
SF 14.2%
IND 5.4%

FF go to zero seats here, with FG taking 2, and LP staying ahead of SF on Indo transfers (Ming Flanagan fishing from the same electoral pool as LP’s former Indo, Cllr John Kelly) and then getting enough of a boost from SF to reel in FF. Very close though, although on these figures, with the IMF bailout, it’s SF rather than FF that would appear to be LP’s main threat.

Sligo- N Leitrim
FF 20.9% (1)
FG 45.8% (2)
LP 13.1%
SF 17.8%

Despite a left/republican vote of over 30%, these figures see SF pull ahead of LP, and then fail to get sufficient transfers to pull in FF who are just too far ahead. LP, fwiw, would probably succeed if they took 3% from SF, but on these figures they’re just not going to pull it off. Dark horse may be veteran ex-LP Marxist Declan Bree, who is reportedly going to run for the ULA.

Tipperary N
FF 16%
FG 22% (1)
LP 19% (1)
Lowry (35%)

Yeah, I know…. less I say about this the better……

Tipperary Sth
FF 26% (1)
FG 27% (1)
LP 18.5%
Healy (IND) 17% (1)
SF 6.5%

FF hold a seat out of 2, probably Mattie, although if the IMF factor makes a difference they might not. LP losing last seat on these figures, on SF transfers to Seamus Healey, although I suspect that’ll depend how much indos get squeezed on the day….

Waterford
FF 15% (1)
FG 35% (2)
LP 29% (1)
SF 11%

FF lose the seat that went with Martin Cullen to FG, who fends off competition from LP2 and SF. The sole FF seat would be in jeopardy if their vote dropped further. LP would be competitive if they managed to recruit local Indo Gilligan, but all the signs are that they’re not going to get that together….

Wexford
FF 22% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 26% (1)
SF 12% (1)

FF lose a seat, although on these figures it’s to SF, rather than LP2 who they pip at the post. Very close though, and if LP could split their vote reasonably evenly (I’m assuming they won’t) they’d probably pull it off.

Wicklow
FF 11%
FG 34% (2)
LP 28% (2)
Behan (Ind) 10% (1)
SF 9%
GP 5%

LP take a seat from Dick Roche, and Behan holds the seat he won under the FF banner last time out. Should Behan no run, the 5th seat is wide open, but probably FF the likeliest to take it.

Well, that’s that. As the election approaches I’ll be refining the local adjustments further to incorporate any credible local polls, and also a weighted average of regional breakdowns of the national polls, and so the next projection you see will be further fine-tuned. Early experimentation shows no overall change in terms of national seat projections, but slightly more resilience in the FF-Dublin vote (with less outside Dublin) and a very slightly bigger increase in LP outside Dublin, with less of an increase in the capital. Net effect as I say is very small and well within the margin of error of the polls (c. 3 seats falling the other way), but worth doing.

Thanks for reading!