Quantum Engineering

So, the first poll to come out since I set up the blog, and as luck would have it, it’s a Sindo/Quantum ‘Research’ poll on Anglo. Oh dear….

Those who’ve noticed my views on Quantum in the past will know how much time I give their findings. Frankly, they produce figures that just aren’t credible. While SF have averaged 8%+ in the reputable RedC/MRBI surveys, they get 3% when Quantum come-a-asking. Even with the sample size of 500 they usually use, this is well outside the margin of error, which suggests one of three things; (1) There is a problem with their sampling methodology, (2) a flaw has suddenly arisen in the methodologies of both the major polling companies, who use samples of 1,000+ and have a proven track record, or (3) the results are made to order.

Reason #3 has been cited on more than one occasion, largely because the more ridiculous figures have co-incided with the known preferences of “Dr” O’Reilly. The Indo’s antipathy to SF is rarely shrouded in subtlety. There have been some such polls that appear to have been a (rather sad) attempt to persuade renegade FF and FG TDs to form a new party, or to get FF to replace Cowen with Lenihen as leader. Of course, asking people if they would support a new party, without setting out its policies, is going to massively over-state the potential of any such party, drawing support from those to the left and the right of any such new formation.

That previous Quantum poll tried to provide further support to this notion, when it stated “Quantum Research said: Interestingly, there is a five-point increase in the figure for ‘don’t knows’, going up from 22 per cent last year to 27 per cent this time round. This ties in with a lot of people’s anger with the current political system as a whole, and their refusal to countenance voting for anyone. Many of these people would also like to see the establishment of a new party.””. If there was a figure for the number of such people supporting such an development, they should have used it, but they didn’t, as they hadn’t asked that question. Instead, they make an un-supported assertion of very dubious value. It’s hard not to see the hand of their paymaster in this, and so I tend to treat their polls with suspicion.

So, today’s poll. Apparently, 73% of respondents believe that Anglo will bankrupt the country, and 72% believe it will bring down the Government (presumably pretty much the same people). This is quite similar to the figure, in their previous poll of how many voters think that State should end its commitment to the Bank (70%). Interestingly, the previous poll’s figures appear to have excluded “Don’t Knows”, whereas today’s figures include a (laughably low) figure for don’t knows.

On the “bankruptcy” question, 73% of the population said it would, 23% said no, and only 4% appear not to be sure on the matter. Really? Only 4%? One person in 25? All the rest have an opinion on whether it might bankrupt the State? Well I studied Economics at third level, and I’m, not sure. It’ll cost us a lot (everyone accepts that) but will it put the State in a position where it can’t meet it’s financial obligations? My wife who is educated to 4^th level in Politics doesn’t know either (I asked). But 96% of all voters do?  The veracity of this is stretched by the other question, on whether Anglo would bring down the Govt.  72% said yes, and 28% said no!  So, 0% “Don’t knows”?  That’s obviously impossible, at least 1% of the population don’t know what the Government is.  Perhaps they excluded don’t knows?  Perhaps, but why would they do that for this question, and not the other?

I don’t buy this.   25% don’t know which party they’d support in a General Election. I’ll bet 10% don’t know if they’d like to win the Lotto or not. There’s always a significant number of people who say “Don’t Know” in any survey, at least if it’s on a matter there is some dispute over. This very low figure suggests that, either (a) the figure was derived without using an actual survey at all, or (b) “Don’t knows” were pressed really hard to make a decision, perhaps by the questioner ‘dumbing down’ the question to something like “will it cost us a lot of money”, thereby making the question irrelevant (as we all know that it will). The only other possibility is that some questioners excluded don’t knows from their figures, but some of them didn’t.

Of course, Quantum have tied themselves up in knots before.  A previous Quantum poll in January 2009 famously showed 55% in favour of Lisbon, 37% against, and 15% undecided, a grand total of 107%!

So, The Sindo have paid Quantum for a poll, and Quantum have delivered one. 73% of the people think that Anglo will bankrupt us. Apparently. Or will crucify us. Or something.

Next, please!

EDIT : The next instalment in the Quantum story is at https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/09/19/party-drink-in-results/