Sometimes its the little things….

Another poll out tomorrow from RedC in the SBPost. The figures quoted show little movement (and the movement is complicated by the fact that they are quoted as from the last poll published in the paper, rather than the last RedC, which was for Paddy Power), however, they add to a drift, and appear to put FF ahead of Lab in seats for the first time since the GE, ans SF barely behind (both have been ahead in votes in a number of polls).

Figures, and IPR seat projections, are as follows;

FG 30%,60
FF 18%,31
SF 17%,24
LP 14%,25
OTH 21%,26

Some concern there for Labour, and apparently there will be data in the paper tomorrow showing that their remaining support is less fixed than that of other parties, notably SF.

FF of course will be delighted with this showing, but now face a problem that traditionally was one for their opponents. By the time of the next election, they will largely be looking to new candidates, with the class of 1997-2011 retired, and will need to build these up to combat the incumbency of FG and LP TDs. However, assuming this happens post the next LEs, I suspect they’ll cope with this. As long as a new force doesn’t emerge on the populist right to mop up some of the OTH vote (anyone seen Ganley?) they are well placed to present themselves as the “official opposition”.  SF will be very pleased, but given their past difficulties in delivering the votes on the day, and the time that’s likely to pass between now and a GE, they’ll not be getting carried away with themselves.

Other than that, there’s little more can be said before more complete figures emerge.

The same poll shows a majority supporting the fiscal compact vote, although tight enough for this to change. It’s been tweeted by the MD of RedC that there a majority against among older/more likely voters, however, so that will be tight if the text requires constitutional change.  This snippet is somewhat surprising, as there have been a number polls in recent Euro-referenda where older voters were more pro-EU than their younger counterparts.  I’ll read the full figures tomorrow with interest.

Anyways, that’s all we’ve got time for.

Till the next one….

 

D

First RedC of 2012….

As most of you will be aware, RedC have published their first poll since last month’s Budget, and it makes somewhat comforting reading for the Government parties, in that they are up from the last RedC, if down from the last General Election.  Party standings, along with the IPR seat projections, as follows….

FG  33% – 63 seats

FF  17% – 23 seats

LP  16% – 31 seats

SF  14%  – 23 seats

GP  3% – 2 seats

ULA* 2.87% – 5 seats

OTH*  14.13%-19 seats

* I have apportioned the ULA share of OTH based on their share of that vote in the last GE.  The poll makes mention of the Socialist Party being 3% in Dublin, which is only what Joe Higgins and Clare Daly got between them last time, but the sample is too low to make any great inference from that.

My initial reaction was very much one of surprise, as I had expected the Government to lose votes following the Budget.  It may be, as Richard Collwell (RedC’s MD) suggested that the harsh budget was already  ‘priced in’ to the polling figures recorded last month.

Otherwise, it’s all pretty much as you were, except for the Greens, who poll 3% (up from 1.85% in the GE), which would give them 2 seats on my projections (although only marginally in both cases).  Given this is the margin of error, it’s too soon to say they are experiencing a recovery, but a couple of more polls saying the same thing and they’ll be – most likely – on the way back into the game.

One aspect of the poll is that it is another mainstream company result that massively contradicts Behaviour & Attitudes, currently the company of choice of the Sunday Times.  Their most recent effort (Dec 18th) had FG 30%, LP 11%, FF 20% , SF 21%, GP 3%(up 1%), OTH 15%.  Obviously, two polls either side of a Budget by different companies would be expected to be different, but FG 3% and LP 6% lower, FF 3% higher, SF 7% higher …. I don’t think so.  As pointed out before, their findings are well out on those of companies with an established track record of accurately predicting GE results, and unless something has happened to the other companies, there’s something wrong somewhere with B&A.  No offence intended (and it appears to have caused some in some quarters) but they’ve yet to convince me that they’re in the same league as the big 3 for this sort of poll.

Getting back to today’s RedC.  There’s also polling regarding the €100 annual Household charge.  The headline figures are;

42% say they are liable, and intend paying

24% say they don’t know if they are liable

19% say they are not liable (which seems a tad low to me)

15% say they are liable, but do not intend paying

Interestingly, Dublin voters are more likely to pay than those outside the capital (only 7% of Dubs are in the ‘liable but won’t pay’ category).  The more working class (and the more likely one is to vote for the left) the liklier one is to be a refusnik, with SF voters the most opposed to paying the charge.  Whether this is related to an ideological opposition, or simply that these voters have the least disposable income, is of course a matter of conjecture.  This shoudl be good news for SF, as they are better placed to pick up the votes of these people than ULA, who are very heavily based in Dublin (OK and Tipp South).  Unsurprisingly, those who are undecided about which party they would vote for are also the group who are most likely to be unsure as to whether they are liable for the tax….bet they vote in X-factor though…!

Anyways, sin é….  TTFN

D

 

Pre Budget Poll

As I’m sure you’ve read by now, RedC have a poll in today’s SBP. I’m unconvinced as to the usefulness of such a poll so shortly before a Budget, given the speculation re cuts etc, although it does ask a series of questions on the choices to be made this week. I’ve not seen the paper, but apparently my prediction that most people want cuts that affect other people has, shockingly, come true!

Anyway, am doing this on the phone and going out shortly, so I’ll be brief. Party standings, and the IPR seat projections are as follows;

FG  32%, 63
FF  18%,25
LP 15%,30
SF 15%,23
GP 1%,0
OTH 19%,25

LP a bit lower than most (but not all) polls, FF a bit higher, beyond that, not much you can take from it, given the circumstances. A poll taken this time next week, on the other hand….

TTFN,
D

Party time….

While we’re waiting for tomorrow’s Presidential count, I though it might be distracting to look at the 2 party polls that were largely ignored (in part by me!) that accompanied the Presidential polls at the weekend.

State of the parties (Red C first, then MRBI, then the average) were as follows;

FG 31%,  36%,  33.5%

LP 17%,  19%,  18%

SF 16%,  15%,  15.5%

FF 14%,  15%,  14.5%

GP 1%*  ,   1%,  1%

OTH 21%,  14%,  17.5%

First off, RedC are now lumping the GP into the OTH category, along with ULA, and so I’ve had to assume their score is the same as MRBI to be consistent.  For ULA, I’ve again assumed a similar proportionate rise as the rest of OTH.

Secondly, there is a massive difference between the polls for FG (much higher in MRBI) and OTH (similarly in RedC).  This would normally be off the scale unless one was a rogue poll, but I suspect it’s a spillover related to the ups and downs of Indo candidates in what has been a very volatile presidential election.  Given more FG voters are supporting Independents than Gay Mitchell, you would expect this to have a short-term impact this has on what voters think their behaviour would be in a GE.

Taking the average of the two figures (a mini Poll-of-polls if you like) and the spreadsheet projects the following figures;

FG  68 seats

LP  35 seats

SF  24 seats

FF  13 seats

ULA  6 seats

GP  0 seats

OTH  20 seats

No great surprises I think, the main question is whether FG are artificially low (and OTH/ULA artificially high) as a result of the MRBI poll.  I suspect FG would do slightly better if a GE was held tomorrow, but could go down to close to the MRBI finding if there was a GE after December’s budget, as clearly there’s a ‘new’ FG vote that’s open to offers.  Labour, while they are holding up extremely well, I suspect they are getting a bit of a bounce from Michael D, and will do very well to be in this territory come January.

SF are doing quite well, but no better than in polls before the last GE, and so I would be very slow to say there has been a significant boost generated from the McGuinness candidacy, and they are no longer ahead of Labour in the polls. Even so, they are well placed to pick up on dissatisfaction with Labour post-budget, and unless the Govt has found €20 billion behind a sofa in Merrion Street, I suspect SF will be about 3% ahead of Labour in the January polls.

FF will be disappointed to be back where they were polling before the GE, but with no (explicit) candidate in #Aras11, it probably isn’t as bad as it could be, and they too will be hoping to pick up on post-Budget anti-Govt sentiment (although I suspect their success in this will be limited, given most people will still blame them for the broad thrust of the Budget, if not the individual details). I’d imagine they will try to argue that aspects of the approach of the Govt, rather than the bottom line will be their tack, but their problem is that there is a plurality of opposition parties and Independents.  If they were the only really opposition party, they could expect some traction, but if FG/LP voters don’t like what is proposed in December, they are more likely to go to SF/ULA/OTH than to the party that everyone else blames for the need to have a painful fiscal adjustments in the first place.  That said, if LP fall in Dec/Jan, they are likely to fall below FF in FPVs, if not seats.

Other than that, little to comment upon, given the miserly detail on ULA et al.  I would note that the broad left would have about 73 seats on this projection, which might have longer term implications, but is more likely to reflect a time when a majority of voters are about to give their #1 to Michael D, SF, or David Norris in another type of election.  I suspect it will not be as pleasing to my eyes come January.

But we’ll see, eh?

D

 

The next 7 years may drag on a bit….

I’m assuming they’re correct (am tied up a bit later) but RedC figures have been extensively leaked, and they suggest that Gallagher is entering the final week in a very strong position.  The figures are;

Gallagher 40% +1,

Michael D 26% -1,

McGuinness 13% NC,

Norris 10% +3,

Mitchell 6% -2,

Dana 3% +1

Davis 2% -1

Apparently the polling took place early this week, but while there has been bad publicity for Gallagher in that period, there had been before it and he’s increased his vote, so I’d not be sure that would make much of a difference.

On the face of it, it looks nearly over.

Is there any comfort that Michael D’s campaign can take from this? Nothing really, and they’ll be hoping there is something in the detailed data that will make it closer in practise.  Firstly, the transfers of McGuinness, Norris & Mitchell.  If these are going to Gallagher/MDH in the same proportion as last week, it *is* over.  However, if the identification of Gallagher as FF has consolidated that “ex-FF” vote, it’s equally possible that the anti-FF vote will transfer better among each other. Michael D didn’t make up the ground he needed among these transfers last week, and will be hoping to do better in this week’s sample.

Another detail which will be pored over is the “likeliest voter” figures, which last week suggested Gallagher’s 12% lead last week would shrink to 8% if restricted to voters who rated their likelihood of voting as 7-10 to 10/10.  51% of voters were 10/10, close to the likely turnout, and so that’s not unlikely to be the actual voters on the day.  If that stays the same, the margin on FPVs would be 10% this week.  Combined with a better transfer rate, you could still be looking at a final count of 53/47, the sort of gap that could still be made up in the final week of the campaign.

But this would be lazarus stuff.  Michael D hasn’t really dropped, it’s just that everyone he would expect good transfers from has seen a decline in their vote, apparently moving to Gallagher.  Mitchell is now at 6% and doesn’t even seem a good bet for saving his deposit, something that would at least have got more FG voters out to vote, and then to transfer for him.  Similarly, Norris has not prospect, and those who demanded his right to run may have found other things to divert their attention.  McGuinness transfers were going strongly to Gallagher last week, and unless they have moved significantly they are not going to benefit Michael D.  And Davis now has slipped into the margin of error with Dana, and their transfers will be negligible.

Not over.  But not far off.  Only an effective “stop Gallagher” effort will stop his election next week, and at this stage it seems unlikely that this will materialise.

I need a glass of wine…..

D

EDIT: The Sunday Times also have a Behaviour and Attitudes poll. Slightly more encouraging for MDH, but less of a track record means less reliable. It gives Gallagher a lead of 38/26, MMG 17%, GM 8%, DN 6%, MD 3%, DRS 2%.

And Den there were two……

Folks,

Lashing this out before catching a train with one of the wains, so please excuse any typos….

I’m sure everyone who follows this blog are aware of the latest RedC Aras poll, which shows Gallagher storming into a commanding first preference lead, and the field effectively whittled down to him an Michael D Higgins.  For any who haven’t, the FPV figures are as follows;

Gallagher 39% (+18)

Michael D 27% (+2)

McGuinness 13% (-3)

Mitchell 8% (-2)

Norris 7% (-7)

Davis 4% (-5)

Dana 2% (-3)

 

First, the obvious.  Gallagher’s vote has almost doubled, and it’s largely at the expense of the other Independents, who losing votes hand over fist, and all of whom are dead ducks now, with no way back.  Secondly, Michael D is gaining votes, but not at the rate that he could stay ahead of that kind of surge.  SF are also leaking now, and are perilously close to the 12.5% required to hold their deposit.  Given the absence of FF, this would represent a step backwards for the party if replicated on the day, and they will be hoping that a sympathy factor, based on a media onslaught and the Primetime debate controversy, will help stem the tide that is going against their man.  And finally, Mitchell is approaching meltdown, and it will take a Herculean effort by the FG party machine for them to save their deposit.  It is still possible that they could overtake SF in there is a continued decline in the Derryman’s fortunes, but even that achievement appears less than odds on.

OK, what else?

Well, as you will also know, the poll was taken before the Primetime debate.  Most people believe that Gallagher performed poorly in that debate, handling the FF question particularly badly, and his odds lengthened at Paddy Powers following it (a trend reversed by the publication of this poll).  Personally I doubt this would be enough to wipe out a 12% lead, but one suspects it would have some impact.

Secondly, there’s the issue of transfers and likely voters.  I got the paper today hoping to get the level of detail on this that previous RedC polls have had, and was surprised to see less of this published than normal.  There are no specific figures for transfer rates or #2 votes, but Richard Colwell (RedC MD) says that Michael D beings to catch Gallagher “as Mary Davis, David Norris and Gay Mitchell all transfer strongly to him. However the question is whether this will be enough before Martin McGuinness is eliminated, as he transfers strongly to Gallagher”.  The unwillingness to say what way the poll indicates would suggest that it’s too close to call

If we were to assume from the above that Mitchell and Norris were going 60/20 MDH/SG, Davis 55/30, and Dana and MMG 30/60, the final result would be Gallagher winning by about 8-9%.  But we don’t know the transfer rates, and ones from previous polls are now useless as the Mary Davis vote of a fortnight ago isn’t the same cohort as today, given the swing since then.

Also of interest is when you look at committed voters.  RedC ask voters how likely they are to vote on a scale of 1-10, and discard 1s 2s and 3s, on the reasonable basis that they tend not to vote.  This is of particular interest in a vote like this where turnout is not expected to be high, with the last Presidential election attracting a turnout of 50% or so.  Those who are “definite” (i.e. 100% likely, according to them) in this poll, interestingly, amounts to some 51% of those polled, the gap is narrower, with Gallagher at 38% and Michael D up to 30%.

Both of these factors combined could, if stretched, be used to suggest that the lead on the final vote among those who will actually vote is around the margin of error, but personally, I think Gallagher would still have won on the final count if the vote had been held early last week, based on these figures.  The question, given the volatility of the figures, is whether he has built up an unstoppable momentum, or whether the “easy come, easy go” principle applies.

The poll is likely to be a game changer in a number of respects.  Firstly, Gallagher will get the attention other potential winners have received, and it remains to be seen how he handles this.  Certainly his views on FF, and more recent revelations about him getting funding from boards he sat on are unlikely to help him.  But is may also arouse some sympathy.  Perhaps more pertinently is whether Michael D continues to adopt the ‘play it safe’ policy, or starts being more expansive about his values, and the sort of Ireland he wants to see.

But it’s game on.  And if I had to bet the house on a result, having done the figures, it’s Gallagher’s to lose.

 

oops!

Just edited a typo in that last blog entry – I had inadvertently given LP 12% (as opposed to 18%) in the Summer MRBI poll!

Bad Behaviour, Poor Attitude….

Some of you will recall a poll being published last month by the Sunday Times, conducted by “Behaviours and Attitudes”, a polling company with little record of measuring party support. This poll was significantly out of step with other companies at the time and so I didn’t devote time to analysing it, but the Sunday Times have used them again this weekend, with findings that the people are, apparently overwhelmingly, in favour of cuts instead of tax rises.

Given the use of polling to try to persuade politicians, I think it’s worth having a look at how reliable B&A are.

As a company, they’ve not been used, generally, for party polling, but to measure attitudes. One example covered here attempted to measure our attitudes to sex and sin. Interesting stuff, and certainly good for filling column inches, but not something that can be tested really – it’s not like there will be a referendum on the issues tested. Good clean fun, but nothing that establishes the quality of the polling in the first place.

As I’ve pointed out beforehand, most of the big 3 (MRBI, RedC & Lansdown Millward/Brown) have a particularly decent record in calling General Elections. They’ve been doing it long enough, and they have records that speak for themselves. In the last GE, all measured FF, FG, LP, SF, GP and OTH quite well, and as I point out here  in the final polls of the GE 2011, of the 18 party totals, only one (FF in the L& M/B) was outside the margin of error (by 0.4%) and when you’re assuming a 3% margin of error to 95% probability, that’s about what you’d expect if polling was being done as close as perfect as possible (those margins are due to random statistical variation, not sample or method error). It’s worth noting that MRBI were closest (for the second GE in a row), Millward Brown were 2^nd and RedC were third. (Unless you could my predictions which were slightly closer than MRBI, ahem!)

The B&A poll on 4^th September had the following party totals;

FG 44%

LP 12%

FF 15%

SF 13%

GP 2%

OTH 12%.

Obviously, if this had been a finding of  a major company poll, this would have been big news, showing sudden swings from LP and to FG. The most recent poll had been an MRBI one (who were closest in the previous 2 General Elections). This showed FG at 38% and Labour at 18%. Assuming they haven’t suddenly become pants at polling, this suggested that, if B&A figures were true, Labour had lost some 6% over the summer (more properly between 3-9%), and FG had gained a similar amount.

So maybe they had? If so, you’d expect it to show up in the other company results. However, no joy for them there. MRBI have since come out with a poll that has FG at 35% (i.e. 3% down on July), and Labour 17% (down just 1%, unlike B&A well within the margin of error). Millard Brown (who were second closest to the result in February) also have released a poll since the B&A one, and this actually showed Labour up 1% to 20%, and FG down 2% to 40%. RedC, who came 3^rd in February, do have Labour down in their latest poll, but within the margin of error, to 16%, and FG down a whopping 8% to 33%.

In other words, all the other polling companies have B&A’s latest results well out on FG and LP, not just in the totals, but in the trends they were suggesting.  Notably, their findings suggest an electorate that are more right wing than that found by the other pollsters, which of course, would not make them unattractive to a paper in the News International stable.

This isn’t to suggest that they aren’t a real company, that their polls are fraudulent, or even to suggest that there is bias at work.  It’s just to point out that, as polling companies go, their figures lack the credibility that more serious pollsters have earned over the years.  I don’t know why the Sunday Times have chosen them, certainly they don’t have the brand recognition or credibility that the big 3 have, and can only hope it’s because they are cheaper.

Judge them on their results, that’s what I always say….

Come on you bhoys in green?

It’s half-time in a (turgid) Andorra-Ireland match, and so I’ll be brief….

This morning’s MRBI poll in the Irish Times has made some headlines, with SF recording the second highest rating of all the parties.  The following are the party shares, and the IPR projections (again, ULA are within the OTH column, and so I’ve estimated their share on the vote as being pro-rata that amount)

FG 35% (-3) – 69 seats

SF 18% (+8) – 29 seats

LP 17% (-1) – 32 seats

FF 16% (-2)  – 16 seats

ULA 2% – 4 seats

GP 2% (NC) – 1 seat

OTH 10% – 15 seats

SF will be unsurprised to see LP still getting a better ‘bonus’ than they do, but may be encouraged by how little it puts them ahead in terms of seats.  In 3 cases (the 2 Donegals and Louth) a seat depends on them running a second candidate they didn’t last time, but still they will be very happy with this.  Largely, their gains hit the other parties more or less across the board.

I’ll not go into enormous depths about the poll, but I’ll just make the following observations;

1.  Contesting the Presidential election has been, obviously a good move for SF, but I suspect the main reason it has been as successful as it has is the onslaught from Gay Mitchell and others on SF.  By making SF the focus of FG/Govt scorn (in a way that FF used to be) they have apparently consolidated opposition to the Govt around a single party.

2. The gender gap, as has been commented by others, is startling with their support at 28% amongst men, but only 11% among women.  Some might assume that this would always have been the case, but no, not at all.  Last January, RedC ran a poll for Paddy Power which showed a very different story.  On that occasion, SF were 14% nationally, so they are up 4% in the intervening months.  And how much higher were they among men?  They weren’t.  In that poll, they rated 12% amongst men, and 15% amongst women.  In other words, since January, SF have risen 16% among men, but dropped 4% among women.  Really.

Now, that level of variation in January is m.o.e. stuff, but the current variation isn’t, so there clearly has been a very significant shift in SF support between the GE and now.

There’s not enough evidence to say for certain what has happened, but at the time in January I believed that SF’s rise was, in part, a surge among public sector workers, who are quite predominantly female.  Since then, it appears that they have lost some of this support, but gained more among men, apparently especially lower income and younger men.

It may be that this is a slight rouge element of the poll, as the variation between women and men out-strips anything I can recall in other polls, and I am reluctant to make any judgments based on this.  But it’s something no doubt we’ll see detailed in future polls in some detail, now it has become a matter of public comment.

anyways, back to Andorra-Ireland…..

D

Gay abandoned

One of the puzzling things about the Presidential Opinion Polls, for an outsider, might be as to how there could be such a large discrepancy between FG’s ratings in the state of the parties, and Gay Mitchell’s figures, with his score skittering between a half and a third of their party figures.

There are a number of reasons, in my view the main one being that he’s unsuited to a values type election, i.e. There are people voting FG now, not because they agree with their values, but because they see the State in a hole, and reckon FG will be the most brutal in pulling us out of it. This opinion gets some weight from a Presidential poll taken before the GE, when RedC found that, if Mairead McGuinness ran for FG against Norris, Bertie, Crowley, Michael D and Fergus Finlay, she would have polled some 13% (compared to 35% for FG in the previous poll) It is also possible, as I suggested in the last post, that the absence of FF means that being the “anti-FF” candidate no longer carries the same benefit.

While the January poll offered 2 choices for FF and LP, it was still way under half of the support her party was getting, which should’ve indicated to FG that this was not going to be a walk in the Park for them as a party. Further evidence arrived in June when a selection of four FG candidates, all representing different strains within the party, mustered less than 30% between them, even after exclusion of undecideds, with last-placed Gay Mitchell in the margin of error at 2.6%. It is beyond most people’s comprehension how Mitchell could have been picked following that poll – it clearly showed that FG were in serious trouble, and needed as many votes as possible to have a decent showing. Enda Kenny saw this when he pushed for Pat Cox, and Mairead McGuinness would, based on that poll, appear to have been a decent bet, but to go for the only candidate with no apparent personal vote was reckless, as they appear to be learning to their cost.

Nevertheless, many FG members appear perplexed, as they have bought into the myth that he’s a great vote getter, whereas the reality is that he is no more than competent, even in elections that suit his temperament.

His most recent outing was the 2009 European Elections, when he topped the poll in Dublin with 23.78% of the vote. Not bad, but above what FG would have got with another candidate? Probably not. On the same day, there were Local Elections, and the FG vote in Dublin amounted to almost exactly the same. In Dublin City and County, FG candidates got a total of 23.73% of the vote. In other words, the Mitchell vote was almost exactly at the same level as the party vote in the LEs, among the same voters on the same day.

His previous test was in 2004, again an EP election coinciding with the LEs. On that occasion, he polled 21.51%, again without a running mate. On this occasion, it was at least above the FG LE performance, but only marginally at less than 3%, and given how low the base was, it wasn’t something you could really use 7 years later to justify someone as an  über candidate.

Previous to that, his electoral tests were in Dublin South-Central. There, his prowess was largely agreed to be the result of intensive clientelism, and a well oiled local machine, neither of which will come into play in this election, but let’s have a look at how he did anyway. His base was always in the mid-to-northern end of the constituency, and if he had been serious about brining in a running mate he would have had one from the more middle-class Terenure end. But Gay was always too canny to allow something like that happen, and he eh, the party, chose Catherine Byrne (now a TD) as his running mate. She had come third in the previous bye-election, polling decently in his areas, and getting 20%, but was based in the Inner City, and if Gay wanted to outpoll his running mate in places like Terenure, she was the candidate to have on the ticket.

In the end, the vote was badly split, and he got 12.37% to her 4.57%, a combined vote of less than 17%. Given the advantages he had as an incumbant TD, geographically based in the middle of the constituency, and with his running mate at the end least FG-minded, his FPV of 5,444 on that occasion does not scream “winner” to me.

Going back to the last century, he managed to top the poll by crushing his running mate Ruairi McGinley in 1997, getting 22% to McGinley’s 3%. Again, its obvious that he was never keen to have a strong running mate, and McGinley a debutant, was never going to challenge Mitchell, who clearly saw topping the poll (and enhancing his reputation) as more important than bringing on a running mate. But even if you take it that this was evidence of his great vote getting ability, his strongest appeal was among what used to be called the “Senior Citizen” vote in Drimnagh and Crumlin. 14 years on, many of those voters are with us no more, and those that are certainly aren’t going to swing a national election.

I suspect he may still poll better on the day, but if he does it won’t be because he is a greater campaigner. It will be because he could hardly do worse. The best FG can hope to come out of this election is a realisation that those votes don’t “belong” to them, and listen to a wider circle than the lads who turn up for branch meetings.  Had they chosen Mairead McGuinness, they would probably be in the mix now, and this would be a very different election.  As it is, there will be a lot of soul searching in the party this Halloween.

 

 

Starters orders….

The RedC presidential poll is interesting on a number of counts.  Most obviously, this is the first time we’ve seen the likely full line-up, without ‘spoilers’, assuming Dana gets the nod from 4 Councils (and the speculation is that she will).  This gives us a clearer picture of where the up for grabs vote is likely, at this stage, to gravitate. Michael D, who is now officially the front runner, knows where he is, and those looking to knock him out of that pole position know he’s the person to beat.

To recap, the first preferences are as follows;

Norris 21%

MDH 18%

McGuinness 16%

Davis 13%

Mitchell 13%

Gallagher 11%

Dana 6%

On these figures,  it will clearly go to transfers, as no-one is remotely near the territory where they can reach 50% on FPVs, and even the front runners will need substantial transfers from more than one competitor.  The dynamic that will introduce to the campaign will be interesting.  While there is evidence that some in FG are out to highlight  the links between Mary Davis and FF, and Shane Ross scored a hit today highlighting her performance on various Quangos following her appointment by Bertie & Co, I suspect that most candidates will spend the rest of the campaign tripping over one another to be positive about themselves, rather than negative about their opponents.

And the transfers …. Well, according to the poll, the 2nd preferences of the candidates are as follows;

Higgins 20%
Davis 16%
Gallagher 14%
Mitchell 14%
McGuinness 8%
Dana 7%
Norris 6%

This is no great shakes for McGuinness (although unsurprisingly so, I would have thought), but shockingly poor for Norris.  It means that, while Michael D is among the top 2 choices of 38% of voters, Norris gets only 27% of voters marking him that high (with 30% for MMG).  Assuming a similar drop off in lower preferences, and neither Norris nor the SF man will be able to make it to the Aras, and both may fail to make it to the last count.

Given this, the question is who can catch Michael D?  When the poll was leaked, I tweeted that Davis would now be second favourite, and while she will get greater scrutiny now for her closeness to FF (and perhaps her pro-life views) I would still see her as the likeliest person to challenge.  However, Twitterer DJCP Moore projected this poll as ending in 59% Michael D to 41% Davis, and that looks about right to me.  Her best hope is that FG don’t swing behind Mitchell, but I think they will feel a need to shore up his vote and avoid an embarrassing early exit for their party.  Kenny may not have chosen Mitchell, and could gain some satisfaction from the party being shown such a dramatic outcome from ignoring his advice, but at the end of the day, you enter politics to win elections.  They’ll be hoping to get up to about 20% which, while a poor result, would be a lot better than the early polls are indicating, something no doubt Kenny would claim as his impact.

The reasons for the poor FG performance are open to debate.  Certainly Mitchell is a poor candidate, as they should have known in advance of nominating him, but on it’s own that’s not enough.  When he got only 2% in a poll including 4 FG candidates, the combined FG polling, which included 4 very different candidates encompassing all the main elements of their party, was only 29%, despite the same poll having the party on 42% for party support.  That would have disappointed FG at nearly any point of their history, so to be polling at that level now should be deeply troubling, and not just for this election.

In fact Mitchell appears to be, if anything, going backwards, as he had expected to get a decent share of the ex-FF vote, and so to be at this level when they’re not even in the race means he’s tumbling badly.  One reason might be precisely the absence of FF.  People vote for parties for all sorts of reasons, but most analysts agree that FG has always got substantial votes based on being the most anti-FF party.  Take FF out of the equation, and suddenly they need to rely on other reasons to support them.  That’s not to say those reasons don’t exist, but on their own they mightn’t  reach the heights that visceral hatred of FF has always brought out to vote for them.  FF of course may come back, but if they are reaching the end of the road as Dev Og appears to think, it may be bad news for FG also.

Otherwise, Gallagher is sinking fast (below the threshold required to get his deposit back), and Dana looks like she won’t register outside a few heartlands.  Their transfers will be courted however, with McGuinness hoping that geography will see them push him into a last count showdown with Michael D.

And Michael D …. It’s probably the first time in his life he could consider himself a favourite.  Certainly as President & Director of Galway Utd he has had his taste of defeat in his life (not to mention from a lifetime of social campaigning).  But with even ideological foes like Shane Ross coming out in support for him, its looking good for him.  That’s not to say that he can’t lose it, but at this stage it’d be him losing, rather than someone else winning.  In particular, he needs a decent Mitchell transfer to stay comfortably ahead of either Norris of MMG, and that suggests that Dublin will be an important region to perform well.   If he manages that, he should get sufficient transfers to be too far ahead of Davis to lose.  His biggest threat may be that Mitchell would make significant inroads to his support in Dublin, and if that happened, he could conceivably outpoll him.  Mitchell would still lose, as he’d not do as well on McGuiness and Norris transfers, but that would be of no substantive benefit to anyone but Davis.  Even considering this scenario, it appears odds-on that Michael D will win.

Yeah yeah, famous last words ….

D

Phoning home…

I won’t bore you with the details, but technical problems mean that this is my first blogpost from my phone. And hopefully my last from it…..

You will all be aware of the RedC poll in today’s SBP. This is the first to show a notable drop for both govt parties. I’ve run the figures through the laptop, and came up with the following seat projections.

FG  33%-68
LP  16%-34
SF  15%-23
FF  15%-16
ULA  3%*-5
GP  2%*-1
OTH  16%-19

*It’s unfortunate that the polls continue to lump ULA with Shame Ross et al. I raised this with RedC and was informed that it was what SBP requested.

I’ll not spend too long typing on this yoke just to tell you what you already know, but it is again striking how, in this territory, a few % points make a world of difference to FF.

Hopefully have access to desktop later to comment on the pres poll.

TTFN

Govt in “popular polling figures” shock

I have to admit, but at this stage, even I’m surprised….

Until very recently, the new Govt were polling exceedingly well, to an extent that probably had  Minsters pinching themselves.  Then along came a poll from “Behaviours & Attitudes” that suggested that, while FG were climbing, LP were suddenly plummeting to 12%.  I didn’t run them through my spreadsheet as they have no track record compared to other polling companies (no party polls on record) and running a simulation based on that poll would give it some credibility (like Quantum Research), but still ppl questioned this, and quoted the poll as if it was more reliable than that of previous polls from tried and tested companies.

Well, there’s been a poll from a real company since then, and it actually shows LP up and FG down, so it would appear that B&A was, to be charitable, a bit out of line…

The Sindo tomorrow have commissioned a real (i.e. non-Quantum Research) poll.  In it, the state of the parties is as follows with changes since the last Millward Brown/Lansdown poll in brackets;

FG 40% (- 2%)

Lab 20% (+1%)

SF 11% (NC)

FF 10% (-6%)

Greens 2%

Inds (incl ULA)  17%

The biggest story here is the collapse of FF (and the polling period, of Aug 30-Sep 14 missed the Presidential policy meltdown), and when I run the simulation, this is particularly stark.  It comes out at;

FG 80 seats

LP 41 seats

SF 16 seats

FF 6 seats (yes, yes, I know…)

ULA 4 seats

GP 0 seats

OTH 19 seats

Just a poll, I know, but very troubling for Martin, particularly with rumours of Dev Og wielding a dagger…. I’ve not got time to analyse further (missus has a TV show paused on Skyplus and is waiting…), but will post again tomorrow.

The same poll, by the way has figures for the Presidential election, however it doesn’t poll for SF and so is a little overtaken by events, missing out on the “My Goodness, McGuiness” factor.  However, for your info, it comes out at;

Higgins – 32%
Norris – 18%
Davis – 18%, up 5%
Mitchell – 17%, down 4%
Gallagher – 14%

On those figures, Gay Mitchell is sinking fast, and the Norris vote is likely to largely find itself in the Galwayman’s column come polling day.  Davis is making ground, but still a long way behind MDH, and a fair bit of that Indo vote is probably SFers who are reluctant to support another party.  Of course, Marty will take a fair bit from from Michael D,and Mitchell will be hoping that voters will react against the Derryman by swinging to him,  but its hard on those figures to see anything but the LP and SF candidates fighting it out on transfers, and I suspect MDH will do somewhat better in that department.

Anyways, am off. Have fun and stay safe….

D

Park Life

As I’m sure you all know by now, the Millward Brown/Lansdowne poll also queried people on their Presidential choices. It’s still very early days, and there were 4 FG candidates on offer, and so there’s only so much we can take from it, but still, let’s see what there is…

Ratings given were as follows (figures after undecideds excluded in brackets);

Norris 21% (28%)

Michael D 19% (25.3%)

McGuinness 10% (13.3%)

Cox 7% (9.3%)

Gallagher 6% (8%)

Davis 4% (5.3%)

O’Dowd 3% (4%)

Doyle 3%(4%)

Mitchell 2% (2.6%)

Well, what does us tell us?  The only other poll by a reputable company on this election was last January, before the GE, when RedC did a survey.  On that occasion, 83% expressed an opinion, and so the 27% supporting Norris worked out as 32.5% after undecideds were excluded, and while it was a different set of candidates presented, it may be that he has lost some first preference support as a result of his own ‘Greek Crisis’.  Harder to measure (particularly as you won’t get honest answers) is how much worse he’ll do on transfers, as while there may have been a hardeneing of some support for him among those inclined to support him, he may also have lost a lot of casual preferences that he would’ve been dependent upon.  Still, he’ll be pleased that the headline is that he’s still the front-runner, a card he’ll use strongly in his efforts to be nominated.

Michael D will be very pleased.  He was on 11% in January with Finlay on 10%, and this suggests that he has taken most of his votes, pretty much en bloc, and then some.  He also knows that he’s seen as a front runner now, and this, combined with an enthusiastic campaign behind him (he is loved by many, and not just in the Labour Party) has to see him as very much a main contender.

Fine Gael will be bemused by this poll, particularly given its the same sample as yesterday’s party poll, and so can’t be attributed to a statistical oddity.  Four candidates on the ballot, each appealing to very different aspects of FG support, and they are at 29% between them.  Hard to see a single candidate garnering more than 22-24% on this basis, and so they’ll be looking closely at this.  McGuiness does appear their best bet, although Cox will argue that he would run the best campaign.  Doyle had barely entered the race formally, but will still be very disappointed at this showing, but not compared to Gay Mitchell (once dubbed “The Evil of Two Lessers”), who will be humiliated by this showing.  Certainly, it will take a brass neck for either of them to continue seeking the nomination, and I would expect at least one of them to quietly step aside in the next week or so.  HQ, however will be concerned to see none of the candidates setting the electorate alight, and I suspect their attentions may return to John Bruton, who they seem to think would be a big vote winner.

Of the rest, they’re all out of it.  On these figures, no-one cares for Gallagher (who is well known already), Davis (who many only know from her gaffe on the Presidential debate where she showed a poor knowledge of the powers of the President), and O’Dowd (whose heart is, apparently, in Ireland) are all polling too poorly to be considered in the race, and I suspect this will impact on their ability to be nominated.

A long way to go, and there may be surprises yet.  But there’s a few names we can start crossing off, on the basis of this poll.

D

Blue Tide

Well, the Government (particularly the larger Party), go from strength to strength.  I suspect this may all change after the next Budget, but to date, FG have gone up in popularity, and LP have maintained their support at roughly GE levels.

The Indo has a poll out tomorrow, and this time it’s by Millward Brown/Lansdowne (and not comedy pollsters Quantum ‘Research’).  Figures (with changes from the last MB/L held in the final week of the GE) are as follows;

FG 42% (+4)

LP 19% (-1)

FF 16% (+2)

SF 11% (NC)

Unfortunately, they continue to exclude ULA which, in my opinion, devalues the poll greatly, as you’ll know if you read my previous blog on the recent RedC poll. I’ve done a projection on the trusty IPR spreadsheet, and it makes happy reading for all the FG supporters out there.  Assuming ULA (and GP) at the same level as the GE (and there’s little to assume that the increase in FG is at the expense of Joe Higgins et al), the seat projections come out as follows;

FG 86

LP 35

FF 17

SF 14

ULA 3

OTH 11

 

Big story would be FG having an overall majority (and safe enough to rely on INDApendants), but surprising (to me, at least) is that this isn’t expecially at the expense of LP, who appear to be holding their own (winning and losing seats on these figures).  ULA would proportionately lose badly, despite being assumed not to have lost ground, but of the 2 seats lost, one would be in Dun Laoghiare as a result of the Ceann Comhairle being Sean Barrett, and the other would be Joan Collins losing out (very marginally) to FG in Dublin SC.

I’ll not spend the rest of the night poring over these figures, as (a) I’ve in-laws visiting, and (b) no great surprises here.

But I will say, to the polling companies ….. PLEASE …. ULA in the next poll.  They’ve FIVE seats, which is what SF have usually had, and they’ve been in every poll in the last 15-20 years or so.

D

 

 

 

 

Plus ça change….

Sorry for the delay there, I’d forgotten about the Champions League final – thankfully my better half didn’t….

I’ve run the figures, and quite a few very close calls, but not much movement.  One difficulty is that ULA (and GP) figures have to be assumed as there’s no breakdown.  As I’ve suggested before, there’s no excuse for this.  ULA are a clearly identifiable group, with as many TDs as SF had in the past when measured in opinion polls, and as much a single entity as other formations in other countries that are measured by professional, reputable polling companies.  Lumping them in with Shane Ross and co. is frankly unprofessional, and RedC have to put this right if they are going to start mending their reputation (which was over-egged by many in the run up to the last 2 GEs).  In the absence of this, I’ve assumed no change in the respective ULA and GP votes, with the main swing from OTH to FG/LP coming from the “like-minded Independents” who are closer ideologically to FG in particular than ULA.

 

Anways, seat total projections are as follows;

FG 79

LP 38

FF 16

SF 15

ULA 4

OTH 14

Very close to the GE, FG and SF up a bit, FF and OTH down (ULA only lose a seat as a result of the Ceann Comhairle’s appointment), but all just a few hundred votes away from the same seats totals.  It would appear that no-one is especially surprised to date with what the govt is doing, and any movement is unlikely to be seen until after the Summer recess and, IMO, after December’s Budget.

TTFN,

Dotski

May Poll dance

RTE have reported a RedC poll in tomorrow’s SBP which continues to show a relatively stable political landscape.  Figures reported are;

FG 41% (up 2%)

LP 19% (up 1%)

FF 16% (n/c)

SF 11% (n/c)

OTH  13% (down 3%)

A slight bump for the Govt, possibly a result of the positive press the recent visits to these shores would have created.  Interestingly I would have expected a slight downward movement for LP as Kenny got much more coverage than LP, but perhaps it all had very little impact.  Certainly, the more recent events around the JLC pay schemes could be expected to have had a greater impact on the electorate.

Am in the middle of getting dinner together, but will do a seats projection later.

D

Red Dawn…..

First poll of the New Era ™ and it’s RedC.   Of course, they were a bit out on polling day, with MRBI maintaining their record as the polling company who come closest to GE results, as I outlined here, however they are well regarded (particularly among FG supporters).  The poll shows really no movement from the final poll RedC held prior to the GE, with party standings as follows;

FG 39% (down 1%)

LP 18% (no change)

FF 16% (up 1%)

SF 11% (up 1%)

OTH (incl. GP, ULA etc) 16% (down 1%).

Unlike most other blogs (and media outlets) I’ve compared the figures with the most recent RedC poll (23 Feb for Paddy Power), rather than the GE, as otherwise you’re not comparing like with like.

It’s a ridiculously tiny movement, given the formation of a new Government, which suggests that, whatever is being claimed from the opposition benches, there’s hardly a person in the country who are surprised by how things have changed (or stayed the same) under the new Government.  I suspect that a lot of people at this stage made their minds up about a lot of things in February, and it will take significant developments for them to shift.

I ran this through the updated spreadsheet with Feb ’11 figures (and lets not forget RedC over-estimated FG in the last GE, as I suggested they would) and came up with the following figures;

FG 77

LP 35

FF 17

SF 17

ULA 5

OTH 15

While the FG seat total doesn’t look too much higher, this isn’t unsurprising.  Garret Fitzgerald commented on RTE during the count analysis that FG had been very fortunate in the spread of their vote and how well their vote splitting strategies had gone (well in places wher ethey needed to, and where it went badly they still limped over the line) and opined that they could increase their vote by 3% and get no extra seats.  That’s a slight exageration, but not much, and on these figures, they’d only get 1 additional net seat on nearly 3% of a higher vote.  Of course, that additional 2.9% could be their “RedC” bonus, making it a moot point.

LP would get 2 fewer seats net, on a share 1.4% lower than they got on polling day, and FF would lose 3 seats on a similar drop.  As pointed out during the campaign, there is a tipping point for FF somewhere in the mid-to-higher teens that they need be north of, and they will be concerned to see that going into opposition has not helped them in this, particularly given the Moriarty findings.  They need to start making big hits soon, given the age of their partiamentary party, or could find themselves slipping further still.

SF also approach a tipping point here, and would appear to gain 4 more seats on just an additional 1.1%.  Some are very close, but that’s often the way.  This will be a big Dail for them, and if they can concentrate on their younger guns (so to speak) they could very well find themselves in Government in time for the centenary of the 1916 Rising.

Finally, others…. Well, I was critical of the polling companies for not separating ULA out from OTH during the GE, but I understood their reasoning, as they were not represented in the Dail at the time.  Now, they have 5 seats, and there is no justification, IMO.  I know they are an alliance as opposed to a single party (albeit one with a stated intention of forming a unified party in the future), but reputable polling companies in Germany always include the CDU/CSU alliance, the British polling companies included the SDP/Liberals as an alliance in their polling when that was a formal alliance, and their a a wide variety of similar arrangements internationally that are shown in polls, so there is no argument for their continued omission. Hopefully feedback will be negative on this, resulting in a change in their practise.

Finally, the poll was nothing exciting, but in fairness, I don’t think there’s much to be expected in the polls until after the Summer recess. I’ve updated the spreadsheet as I said, and so will now be able to turn around projections as quickly (or slowly!) as I ever did, and if you don’t want to subscribe to the blog (where you get sent email alerts) you might like to follow me on twitter and I’ll alert you when I’ve posted a new projection.

TTFN

D

Hi, it’s me…!

Sorry for the delay in compiling the results of the prediction competitions and getting back to you.  Other pressures in my life have conspired to make me very busy, and in the absence of a forthcoming GE, it’s hard for me to make the case for putting too much more time into the blog.  I’ve finally updated the spreadsheet to take account of the recent GE results, and so my next post will be a quick projection of last week’s RedC.

The winners of the competitions were Redgreenanarchist (not his/her real name I suspect….) and Ruairi O’hEithir – I’ve e-mailed both of them asking them to nominate their charities.  Ruairi’s was particularly close, being 38 individual seats out (remember that’s really 19, as 1 seat too many for one party in a constituency means 1 too many for another), and a mere 10 out in the seats totals.  In this, he out-predicted every published pundit’s predictions that I could find (not counting one’s which came to light after the election….)

In terms of the pundits, my spreadsheet didn’t let me down, and my final prediction was 14 seats out.  Not as good as Ruairi’s, but much closer to any pre-published pundit I could find.  Interestingly, the closest to this was Adrian Kavanagh, who also uses a spreadsheet who was 24 seats out, compared to Newstalk and Sunday Tribune projections which were closer to 60 seats out.   I think this should put to rest any debate about the efficiency of using this method to project election results.  It’s not perfect, and I never claimed it was, but it’s far closer to reality than the “gut feeling approach” that most people use.

Anyways, I’ll post the projections of last Sunday’s RedC and skedaddle, visitors this evening….

D

I think we have a winner……

Folks,

Sorry for the delay in collating competition winners.  Before I release, it appears that the winners of the GE predictions competitions were 40 and 38 seats out respectively (first and final predictions) – if anyone beleives that they sent me a more accurate prediction (there were a few that changed the formatting and my automated comparison may have failed to pick something like that up) please let me know by Weds midnight.

D

 

Polls Positions

The final seats have yet to be allocated, so I’ll be reserving my comments on this until after the last count, but at this stage we know the FPVs of each party, and I thought it might be timely to review how the different organisations (and my good self!) did in trying to gauge how many votes each party would get, that being the idea behind such polling in the first place.

Most of you will be well aware that MRBI and Millward/Lansdowne have been rubbished for some time by some FG posters on politics.ie in particular, despite having as good a record in General Elections (I’ve outlined elsewhere why I believe you can’t compare effectiveness in predicting GE results with other elections).  The posters generally pointed to RedC as the most reliable, despite having no better (and arguably a worse)  record in predicting GE results.  This time, despite (yet again) being held closer to polling day than the other companies final pre-polling day efforts, RedC were actually the furthest out of all the respected polling companies, as I suspected they might be.

The last MRBI poll, which I flagged as the one to watch (having been extremely close in ’07), was the first of the “final” polls to be published, leaked on Sunday evening and published in Monday’s Irish Times.  They were out by 0.9% for FG, 0.4% for LP, 1.4% for FF, 1.1% for SF, 0.2% for GP, and 0.4% OTH, making their total deviation a very impressive 4.4%.  Millward Brown/Lansdown came out the following day and were 1.9% out for FG, 0.6% for LP, 3.4% FF, 1.1% SF, 0.8% GP and 0.6% OTH, making their deviation a less impressive (but still solid) 8.4%.  The last official poll of the campaign came from RedC (as in 2007) and as in the previous GE, they failed to make this advantage work for them, with the least accurate prediction of the final vote.  They were 3.9% out for FG, 1.4% for LP, 2.4% for FF, 0.1% for SF, 1.2% for GP, and 1.4% for OTH, a whopping 10.4% overall.

As regular readers will be aware, I went out on a limb and posted my predictions on polling day and my figures were out by 1.8% for FG, 0.1% for LP, 1.1% for FF, 0.1% for SF, 0.2% for GP and 0.9% for OTH, a total deviation of 4.2%.  And finally, another MB/L poll, this time an exit poll for RTE, gave figures that deviated by 0% for FG, 1.1% for LP, 2.3% FF, 0.2% for SF, 0.9% for GP and 0.1% for OTH, a total deviation of 4.6%.

In summary, the total number of percentage points the last projections were out by was as follows;

MRBI 4.4%

MB/L 8.4%

RedC 10.4%

IPR 4.2%

Exit 4.6%

Now, that’s not to rubbish RedC, polling is a complicated discipline, but rather I think it does shoot the credibility of those who ridiculed the other company results, particularly people who poured scorn on MRBI for recording figures that they didn’t agree with, and who took particular exception to my basing projections on their data.  MRBI by contrast were the closest of all the polls in the final week (even better than the Exit Poll) and the only prediction I’m aware of being closer was mine, which was based in large part on their poll anyway.

So next time you hear someone scorning a polling company, check who they are, who they support, and look at the evidence.

17:50 update

Folks,

By my reckoning, likely vote shares after the remaining counts come in are roughly;

FF 17.2%

FG 35.7%

LP 20.6%

SF 9.6%

GP 1.8%

OTH 15%

Quite close to the exit poll, and arguably closer to my prediction yesterday (described by one tweeter as “spooky” earlier today) which was;

	%	seats
FF	16.3%	20
FG	37.9%	73
LP	19.5%	42
GP	2.0%	0
SF	9.8%	10
oth	14.5%	21

For what its worth, my current prediction is;

FF 22

FG 73

LP 39

SF 12

OTH 20

A lot of water to go under the bridge before the accuracy of these is decided….

D

 

 

 

Edge of their seats

Twitter seems to have exploded ….

 

FWIW, the 1pm tallies are starting to look like the following to me;

FF 22 seats

FG 70 seats

LP 39 seats

SF 12 seats

GP 1 seat

OTH 22 seats

 

A lot of seats up in the air though, and transfers will be more than unpredictable….

Early Indications part deux…

Based on tallies of varying completeness in 23 constituencies;

FF 18% (25 seats)

FG 36% (73 seats)

LP 19% (38 seats)

SF 9% (9 seats)

GP 2% (0 seats)

OTH 16% (21 seats)

Obviously a drift to FF from LP there, although very early …. LP not certain of breaking 40 just yet, FF getting a bit of hope from some of those tallies.

Early indications

There’s about 15 partial tallies in, and while they all individually come with large health warnings, such difficulties tend to cancel one another out when you have a good spread.  I’m projecting from these a likely national vote in the region of the following;

FF 17.5%

FG 35.7%

LP 20.4%

SF 8.9%

GP 2.0%

OTH 15.5%

As you can see, that’s pretty close to the exit poll, but has FF a wee bit higher, perhaps 2-2.5%.  It could just be a blip, and not enough to save them from a disastrous result, but could save a few careers.  I’ll do a seats projection in a bit….

Exit Strategy

RTE Exit poll from Millward Brown is out, and if accurate (they wre very accurate in 2007) it would support my argument that MRBI was closest to the money again.  Vote shares (with my projections in brackets)

FF 15.1% (17)

FG 36.1% (71)

LP 20.5% (41)

SF 10.1% (12)

GP 2.7% (2)

OTH 15.5% (23)

As you can see from here that is very close to my projections from yesterday.  Just a poll and all that, but still, happy enough with that….

FF rating for Dublin is apparently very low (8% if I heard correctly) but that could be the lower sample, national figure will be more reliable given the 2.5% margin of error.

Of course, a long way to go, I’ll be updating projections based on the tallies as they come in today.

D

 

Waiting …

Well,

I’ve sat down and come to my final conclusions, and have (somewhat foolhardily, I suppose) decided to publish them, thereby setting myself up for ridicule, given some of the 43 constituencies are likely to go very differently. As I say, it’s not a portal on the future….

My national projected vote is roughly based on the MRBI figures and the general trend, plus some adjustments to the base votes to take account of constituency polling during the campaign. While RedC had a slight increase for FG in the margin of error in their last poll, the other two companies had them flattening, and I think that’s largely what was happening at the end of the campaign. On these figures, they would be well short of the 84 everyone is talking about, and which they were tipped to achieve on RTE radio the other day. LP similarly had appeared to have stopped the rot in all the polling towards the end. Some people see an on the day problem for them based on the 2009 Local/Euro elections and Donegal SW, but in GEs they’ve generally performed as the last MRBI polls projected, and I don’t see this being too different. Locals and Euros are a very different creature, and by-elections even more so (ask Catherine Murphy), but in GEs most ppl know pretty much how they will vote.

SF I have a little down, being ‘squeezed’ as smaller parties often are at the end. FF I see making only a small recovery on the day, and not enough to push them past territory more associated with LP. I have the GP just missing out in a couple of areas, although close enough that I won’t be surprised if Trevor Sargant in particular holds on. OTHs I see taking a decent block of seats.

Summary of my prediction is as follows.

	%	seats
FF	16.3%	20
FG	37.9%	73
LP	19.5%	42
GP	2.0%	0
SF	9.8%	10
oth	14.5%	21

FWIW, even including FF gene-pool, there’s only a mximum 11 “Enda-pendents”, making a FG-IND arrangement impossible without supplementary agreement from FF, who may yet find a role for themselves in the next Dail as a “loyal opposition” should negotiations on a Programme for Government break down between FG and LP.

Anways, these are my predictions – if you disagree with them, why not show me yours?

I’ll be making projections tomorrow, initially based on the exit poll (on RTE sometime between 7am and 8am, but I can’t promise I’ll make it that early!) and then based on the tallies. The initial tally-based ones will be less reliable than the later ones, but if your party does better in the first 7 or 8 tallies that come in than one would expect, you can generally assume that its going to be a good day for you. Similarly, if they are all going badly ….

Anyways, enjoy the count, and who knows, we may be going this all over again in 6 months…..?

		FF		FG		LP		GP		SF		OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny	5	25.4%	1	40.2%	3	13.5%	1	4.7%		6.6%		9.7%
Cavan-Monaghan	5	16.0%	1	38.7%	2	5.0%		1.5%		26.9%	1	12.0%	1
Clare	4	22.0%	1	45.4%	2	8.9%		3.0%		1.7%		19.2%	1
Cork E	4	16.5%		37.1%	2	29.9%	2	0.8%		9.2%		6.4%
Cork NC	4	15.9%	1	23.5%	1	22.6%	1	2.1%		15.9%	1	20.0%
Cork NW	3	31.2%	1	46.8%	2	10.4%		1.6%		4.8%		5.2%
Cork SC	5	22.4%	1	40.2%	3	16.1%	1	3.0%		7.3%		11.0%
Cork SW	3	23.3%	1	40.0%	1	17.7%	1	3.8%		7.6%		7.7%
Donegal NE	3	18.5%		33.8%	1	15.3%	1	0.7%		22.3%	1	9.5%
Donegal SW	3	19.4%	1	28.8%	1	9.4%		0.6%		27.3%	1	14.6%
Dublin C	4	7.9%		20.5%	1	27.7%	1	0.6%		11.3%		31.9%	2
Dublin Mid-West	4	13.3%		31.8%	2	25.5%	1	6.1%		12.1%	1	11.2%
Dublin N	4	14.9%		32.7%	2	23.7%	1	10.7%		0.0%		18.0%	1
Dublin NC	3	12.0%		39.4%	1	17.3%	1	1.9%		7.5%		21.8%	1
Dublin NE	3	11.6%		32.6%	1	30.0%	2	2.2%		14.6%		9.0%
Dublin NW	3	13.2%		22.3%	1	36.9%	2	0.5%		19.5%		7.6%
Dublin S	5	8.1%		37.0%	2	23.1%	2	6.9%		4.0%		20.9%	1
Dublin SC	5	4.6%		23.0%	1	40.1%	3	0.6%		10.9%		20.9%	1
Dublin SE	4	11.9%		29.8%	2	25.6%	1	6.9%		5.4%		20.5%	1
Dublin SW	4	11.5%		32.9%	2	27.5%	1	1.1%		18.7%	1	8.3%
Dublin W	4	14.3%		25.0%	1	32.5%	2	0.0%		6.8%		21.4%	1
Dun Laoghaire	4	17.4%	1	30.7%	1	31.7%	2	3.2%		3.9%		13.1%
Galway E	4	14.0%		51.3%	2	14.6%	1	0.0%		5.1%		14.9%	1
Galway W	5	13.5%	1	36.5%	2	14.3%	1	2.5%		5.8%		27.4%	1
Kerry N	3	13.8%		39.3%	1	17.1%	1	0.7%		22.5%	1	6.7%
Kerry S	3	15.9%		30.6%	1	15.8%		0.4%		5.7%		31.5%	2
Kildare N	4	9.8%		36.9%	2	28.3%	1	1.9%		4.9%		18.2%	1
Kildare S	3	24.0%	1	24.8%	1	28.8%	1	4.0%		4.6%		13.7%
Laois-Offaly	5	28.6%	2	40.4%	2	8.0%		0.6%		9.8%	1	12.6%
Limerick E	4	15.1%	1	40.0%	2	25.5%	1	0.7%		7.1%		11.7%
Limerick W	3	24.3%	1	51.8%	2	17.1%		1.2%		1.6%		4.0%
Longford-Westmeath	4	18.7%	1	37.1%	2	32.6%	1	0.4%		6.0%		5.2%
Louth	5	11.4%	1	40.2%	2	15.0%	1	2.8%		23.8%	1	6.7%
Mayo	5	16.9%	1	56.9%	3	8.2%		0.0%		7.8%		10.1%	1
Meath E	3	15.5%		47.6%	2	21.7%	1	0.9%		6.8%		7.5%
Meath W	3	14.0%		47.1%	2	13.0%		0.1%		16.4%	1	9.5%
Roscommon S Leitrim	3	14.6%		46.1%	2	12.4%	1	0.8%		11.1%		14.9%
Sligo N Leitrim	3	17.4%	1	45.3%	2	9.6%		0.8%		13.7%		13.2%
Tipperary N	3	13.7%		31.1%	1	14.2%	1	0.4%		5.9%		34.6%	1
Tipperary S	3	13.2%		31.5%	1	14.6%	1	0.4%		5.1%		35.2%	1
Waterford	4	13.4%		43.9%	2	18.6%	1	0.0%		9.5%		14.6%	1
Wexford	5	19.5%	1	39.8%	2	20.0%	1	0.8%		7.1%		12.7%	1
Wicklow	5	9.1%		40.2%	2	26.4%	2	2.0%		9.0%		13.2%	1
	166	FF	20	FG	73	LP	42	GP	0	SF	10	OTH	21

RedC breaks from the pack …..



The final poll from RedC during this campaign (and one presumes the last of any company until the polls close) has come out, and unlike those from the other companies, it suggests that the FG surge has continued, pushing them to the magical 40% figure.  Figures (plus uniform swing projected seats in brackets) are as follows;

FF 15% (17)

FG 40% (79)

LP 18% (35)

GP 3% (2)

SF 10% (11)

OTH 14% (22)

Clearly this is so close to FG getting a majority as makes no difference, the poll margin of error is significantly greater than that required to push them past 84 seats, and they could be lucky on transfers (although I’m assuming they’ll do well on these, especially OTH except in areas where this is a left-wing candidate).  They will be conscious though that they have been doing better in RedC (and LP worse) for 2 years or so, and in the last GE, RedC’s final poll was much further out than MRBI, particularly for the 3 main parties, despite being taken later than the MRBI one.  Then, RedC were 3.6% out for FF, 1.3% for FG, 0.9% for LP.  The MRBI effort was out by 0.6% for FF, 0.3% for FG, and  0.1% for LP.

LP will be hoping that the other polls (notably MRBI) which have them higher are more accurate, but it is notable that they are either steady or slightly up in the last poll for each company, and so it appears their campaign has been ending in a more successful manner than it started.  However, if the trend in RedC is correct, Gilmore may be leading a PLP of about 35-40 into opposition against a FG govt with a series of “understandings” with the Indo TDs.  Some will say, better to reign in hell than to serve in heaven, I suppose….

FF will be disturbed to see another poll pointing to a decline, rather than a recovery in their fortunes.  On these figures they are in real trouble, and it’s only the lower than average performance by SF that stops them doing even worse.  At this stage it’s hard to see them having the sort of recovery I initially expected of them.

SF will be slightly concerned to see a dip back to 10%, but can console themselves that this is (probably) normal movement within the margin of error.  GP by contrast may be given hope by a similar movement within the margin of error that puts them in “getting seats” territory, but this may be equally illusory.

Anyway, a reminder of the prediction competition – the prize is only a small donation to the charity of your choice, but bragging rights will of course be secured.  If you’re someone who has been slagging of the spreadsheet over on p.ie, I’d particularly suggest that you enter, to show us all how it’s done!

 

EDIT: I’ve seen the poll report, and an interesting set of figures is the “how likely are you to vote for your party” question.  59% express themselves as having either made up their mind before the campaign (22%) or during it (37%), with the reaminder being either pretty sure but not completely (32%), or not at all (9%).

So what percentage of each party’s supporters made up their minds?  Figures are FF 61%, FG 69%, LP 71%, SF 69%, OTH 51% (no figure reported for GP, oddly enough).  While RedC say FF can take some comfort from this (reasoning being that many of the OTH vote is ex-FF), the quite low level of certainty among the FF voters suggests that they could do even worse on the day. It shoudl also not be assumed that uncertainty among former FF voters is a sign that FF will do well among those voters, as they may just be trying to choose among their non-FF options, and in most cases will take longer to decide as they’ve never voted against FF before.

Their deliberations could be informed by the question on most favoured Govt, with a FG/LP the most popular at 33%, but a growing number either wanting FG or FG/IND (32% combined between 2 options).  56% want LP in some sort of govt combination, although presumbly not all those who want LP/FF/SF wish to see them in with FG.

 

Independents Day?

Hi folks,

Am back in the country (was away on work) and see there’s another poll, this time from Lansdown/Millward Brown.  I’ve run it throught the spreadsheet and have got the following figures;

FF	14.0%	13
FG	38.0%	75
LP	20.0%	42
GP	1.0%	0
SF	11.0%	11
oth	16.0%	25

FG are still tottering just short of an overall majority, but the drop in FF (and even the small one in SF) would appear to give LP the edge in a few battleground seats (in the West, as it happens…)

It’s late, but I’ll be back to the blog tomorrow, when I understand that there’s likely to be a RedC poll (one presumes the last of the campaign).

 

D

 

 

 

 

Last lap

Hi,

I’m out of the jurisdiction at the moment (and posting this from a hot-spot that refuses to recognise Firefox!), but got a text last night of figures for the last MRBI poll, which I presume you’ve all read. This is an important one, as the final MRBI in 2007 out predicted all the other polls, including a later effort from RedC, with the MRBI poll being to the nearest percentage point for FF, FG and LP.

The percentages (along with seat projections) are as follows;

FF 16% (18 seats)

FG 37% (74 seats)

LP 19% (38 seats)

SF 11% (16 seats)

GP 2%

OTH 15% (20 seats)

Unsurprisingly, it reflects the swing against LP last week, and if LP are to finish north of 40 seats, they will need to have some sort of modest recovery in the final week. This level is almost exactly what they got in 1992, although there was must less of the vote to their left in that election. In ’92, had they run sufficient numbers of candidates they would have got about this figure, so it is open to argument as to whether this would be a better or worse result.

FG, perhaps slightly surprisingly, appear to be approaching a ceiling. My own expectation was that they’d break the 40% barrier in this poll, with a bandwagon effect (coupled with the fear of Indos holding sway) pushing them over the line towards overall majority territory. While this would represent an outstanding result for them, it is again, like LP, no more than their best performance under Garret FitzGerald in the 1980s.

SF will be happy to see another poll that has them over 10%, and will be hoping that they hold this vote better than they did in ’07. Given how much of their vote appears to be rooted in anger over the bailout, I suspect that they will. The Greens, while still in the margin of error, will hope that they can push up to 3-4% in the final week and salvage up to 3 seats. OTHs remain an enigma, and one that won’t be resolved until Saturday when the votes start coming out of the boxes.

FF on the other hand seem stuck on 16%, and will be hoping that the methodology of all 3 polling companies is understating their support. They may be, however it’s hard to see this being more than a couple of percentage points, and they probably have to hit 19% or so to make the breakthough in a large number of 3 seats in the West.

And 19% undecided at this stage? Will they even make it to the polling stations, I wonder? Time will tell

I’d like to remind you that the prediction competition is open to the close of polls, when I understand that details of an Exit Poll may start to emerge. As soon as we have that out, I’ll run the figures, and on the day of the count, I’ll be using a spreadsheet I’ve developed to take the tallies as they come , compare them against the expected results, and use the variance to estimate the votes in un-tallied areas. The early results will be skewed by incomplete tallies in perhaps an unrepresentative sample of constituencies, but by 10-15 tallies in I expect us to have a reasonably good steer on where it’s going.

Laters….

D

Place your bets …..

Folks,

As promised, I’m running a second prediction competition, for entries made in the last week of the campaign.

Competitors will give their best estimate of the seats (and percentage vote share) in each constituency. The winner will be the entrant who is least out in terms of total seats for each party (e.g. if 2 too many for FF and 2 too few for FG, you are 4 out). If there is a tie, it will go to whoever was least out in percentage shares of the vote in each constituency. The winner will not gain any great riches for him/herself, but a small (€10) donation to a charity chosen by them, really just something to make it interesting.

Entries should be entered into the spreadsheet downloadable at this address (you may be asked to wait 20 seconds before downloading), and when you complete this, please save it and send to irishpollingreport@gmail.com . Needless to say, I’ll not use your details for anything other than the competition.

NB Just to point out that Limerick East and West have been replace by Limerick City (4 seats) and Limerick County (3 seats) with a chunk going in with Kerry North – the spreadsheet uses the old names in case there is any confusion on this.

If you have any problems downloading the spreadsheet (or making it work) drop me a mail and I’ll do my best to sort it out.

D

It is now?

The two last polls for Sunday papers are out, and both show a swing from LP to FF.

The Lansdown/Millward Brown effort (leaked, denied then re-released on p.ie earlier today) , gives the following figures (my seat projections in brackets);

FF 16% (18)

FG 37% (73)

LP 20% (40)

SF 12% (15)

GP 1% (0)

OTH 14% (20)

The RedC broke later (but was confirmed earlier!) and gives the following figures (again, IPR projections in brackets)

FF 16% (18 seats)

FG 39% (78 seats)

LP 17% (33 seats)

SF 12% (16 seats)

GP 2% (0 seats)

OTH 14% (21 seats)

As you can see, both projections indicate FG reaching mid-70s, and in the RedC figures they are 5 seats (+ CC) short of an overall majority, and the momentum would appear to be with them.  Even if they didn’t increase between now and Friday, they could cobble a government together with Indos, which would suggest that, should they fall short of the 84 seats, they will have a number of potential governmental colleagues.  It would appear that, short of a car crash performance by Enda next week, FG will be pushing for the overall majority in the final week, and have probably started considering in a strategic way their options.

LP will be very worried by these figures.  As you can see, there’s a big difference in seats between the 3% variance in their vote, there’s a tipping point in there somewhere between 17-20%, it seems.  While the 3% drop obviously hits them in terms of seats, a big problem for them is the possible recovery of FF, with whom they now appear to be competing with to lead the opposition.  In practical terms, it’s hard to see them lose enough ground to be overtaken in seats, but it cold happen in votes, which would for FF mean a successful campaign (and a terrible one for Gilmore).  The next week will be a crucial one for them, and Gilmore may prepare himself for having to choose between being Tanaiste, or leader of the opposition.

FF will be quietly relieved to see a small recovery in these polls, and the danger that they may finish behind SF appears to have receded.  However, unless their attractiveness for transfers has improved, they will be hard pushed to beat LP on seats.

SF will, while disappointed to see a FF recovery make their 4th placing look settled, will be relieved that two polls placing them on 10% have turned out to be a temporary dip.  The Greens appear condemned to losing all their seats, and Indos maintain their strong showing in the polls.

Off to have dinner, but I’ll be back with details of the prediction competition and other stuff, hopefully tonight (assuming I’ve not turned to the drink by then……)

D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Local Heroes

While the IPR spreadsheet extrapolates from national polls, there’s always been a (justifiable) argument made that things will be different in the individual constituencies. I’d argue that these differences tend to cancel out on a national basis, although of course, in the case of small parties in particular, you can be lucky or unlucky in that.

There’s been a number of constituency polls using mock ballot papers over the last few days from reputable companies (as opposed to other polls where IT students did a project in some areas for the local rag), and rather than pore over each of these, given they generally have individual margins of error of 4.5%, I thought it would be interesting to look at a composite of these (which would have a smaller margin of error) and compare this with the most recent IPR projections in those constituencies.

The polls in question provided the following figures;

	FF (%)	FG (%)	LP (%)	GP (%)	SF (%)	OTH (%)
Cork NC (average)	14	23	30.5	1	14	17.5
Cork SC	27	36	19	3	8	7
Donegal NE	15	29	15	0	28.5	12.5
Dun Laoghaire	18	32	32	4	0	14
Galway W	19	31	12	3	6	29
Kerry Sth	15	31	15	0	1	38
Tipperary Sth	10	31	14	0	5	40
Average	16.86	30.43	19.64	1.57	8.93	22.57

So how do these stack against the most recent IPR projections? These were as follows;

		FF		FG		LP		GP		SF		OTH
Cork NC		9.80%		40.40%		22.00%		2.00%		11.30%		14.50%
Cork SC		17.30%		41.40%		17.20%		5.00%		7.30%		11.80%
Donegal NE		21.20%		33.10%		12.80%		1.10%		22.80%		9.00%
Dun Laoghaire		11.70%		28.80%		31.70%		4.60%		3.60%		19.60%
Galway W		12.20%		35.90%		15.20%		4.30%		5.80%		26.60%
Kerry S		15.50%		31.10%		16.90%		0.50%		5.90%		30.10%
Tipperary S		13.50%		29.50%		14.40%		0.50%		5.20%		36.90%
Average		14.46%		34.31%		18.60%		2.57%		8.84%		21.21%

Well, interestingly, pretty close overall. In these polls, FF do 2.4% better, FG 3.9% worse, LP 1% better, GP 1% worse, SF 0.1% better and OTH 1.4% better. Very odd, given the protestations from some that the spreadsheet is biased against FG….

The main cause of FG’s underperformance in the polls relative to the projection is the retirement of Bernard Allen in Cork NC, and my underestimation of the individual effect this would have on their fortunes there. Interestingly though, what deviation there is in the other constituencies is also largely downwards. Even taking CNC out of the equation, the average FG vote in these polls is 31.7%, compared to 33.3% in the spreadsheet projections for those constituencies, which may temper the expectations among some that FG will significantly over-achieve compared to their national polling. They may of course do better on the day, but if they do, it will be the result of a national swing to them, rather than 43 cases of ‘local factors’ all going their way.

FF will draw some comfort that they are polling slightly higher in the constituency polls than in the projections, but given 2 of the 7 polls are in Cork City, this is likely to be at least in part a result of the Martin factor (a local langer leap) being underestimated by me. Interestingly, only two of the seven constituencies sees them make a quota despite Cork City being there twice, although they could be expected to get 4 seats out of these constituencies on these figures (CSC certain, Galway W pretty certain, Dun Laoghaire very probable, and touch & go in CNC and DNE), which is 1 seat more than I call it in the spreadsheet, so that couple of percentage points could make a big difference to them on the day. The big issue for them will be the 20-30% reported abstentions in these polls – whether these are “shy FFers”, or anti-FF voters who have yet to decide the flavour of their opposition, is the factor that is likely to seal their fate.

Labour should be happy enough with these polls overall. They’ve only 3 TDs running in these 7 constituencies, and their vote is 1% higher than the most recent projections. If I had to call the seats on these 7 polls, I’d give LP 7 seats , although 9 would be possible. This compares slightly favourably to the projections, where I have them getting 6 seats. Certainly, if offered these FPV shares at this stage of the campaign, they’d probably take them (if over the objections of Paula Desmond, who will be disappointed with the CSC figures).

After the largest 3 parties, it becomes harder to call given the margins of error, but it is noticeable that the SF vote is 0.1% higher in the polls than the projections, indicating that they should be able to translate their national fortunes locally, provided they get their voters out. The Greens however will be concerned that they under-perform in all 7 constituency polls, particularly as they are running an outgoing Oireachtas member in half of them, and so these are constituencies where their candidates are well known.

OTH do slightly better, although the nature of these candidates makes it hard to extrapolate nationally. It does suggest though that lack of high profile candidates will not impact on their appeal at the ballot box.

That’s all for tonight, I’ll have something for you tomorrow after the RedC poll breaks.

D

Some of the crowd are on the pitch…..

Well, another two polls today. A Hearld Poll of Dublin (using L/MB) as indicated that LP maintain their lead in the Capital, but all eyes this evening are on an national poll from them, in tomorrows Indo, which shows FG pulling well ahead of LP, , and FF and SF falling further behind the second party. While the poll was taken over the weekend, before the Valentine’s Night debate, indications are that this didn’t sway many – if any – voters, and so we can I think say that, short of a car crash moment, FG will emerge from the election as the largest party with LP the second biggest, and the only question now is whether Kenny & Co. will have the option of ruling without LP.

Anyways, the result, with the projections from the spreadsheet in brackets;

FF 12% (8 seats)
FG 38% (74 seats)
LP 23% (49 seats)
SF 10% (8 seats)
GP 1% (0 seats)
OTH 16% (27 seats)

Obviously, the apparent collapse in the FF vote is of course remarkable – but 8 seats? Well, maybe not, but that’s roughly what they’re looking at on these figures. Their big problem is that the areas where they may expect to get about a half above their national polling are largely in 3-seaters in the West of Ireland. To get getting 20%+ in those areas while 12% nationally, they’d have to be averaging 6% or so in places like Dublin , where they’re closer to 10%. Add to this and a transfer repellent brand, and they are utterly dependent on improving their FPV on the day. Now, they may do so, but any ‘Martin Bounce’ has been and gone, and this poll was taken after Martin was adjudged to have won the TV3 debate, so there’s no guarantee they’ll make up ground, and indeed could even lose some, as they may become to be seen as irrelevant – any hope they had of catching LP for 2nd place are surely gone now, with a vote of around half that of LP.

FG will be cock-a-hoop. Two polls in a row, from different companies, showing them at 38%. They go into the last week of the campaign assured of being the largest party after the election, and require only a small swing to get an overall majority. Even on these figures, there are Indos in Monaghan, Clare, DubS, GalE, GalW, KerryS, Mayo, Roscommon, TippN, TippS, Wicklow & poss. DSE that might be open to a deal (in the national interest, of course), which could give them an overall majority.

LP may prefer to not be down 1%, but given the movement in other polls they can’t be surprised, and indeed may even be relieved. It does seem likely that they’ve lost ground to FG on their right, but have gained an almost equivalent amount on their left. They have a week left to push their way back into contention, and it now seems to be a question as to whether Gilmore will be Tanaiste or Leader of the Opposition. Neither would be a poor result for a party historically used to being 10-15%, and to double this would be a historically brilliant result. However, if they don’t improve on it over the last week, they will look back on this as an opportunity missed.

SF will be concerned. Two polls now in a row, from different companies, both showing them at 10%. Again, that would be about half higher than last GE and a good result, but in the 10 polls between 3rd December and 6th February they averaged 13.2%, but two polls at 10% in a couple of days suggests that some of this has slipped. They will hope that Gerry Adams much improved performance in yesterday’s leader debate will turn this around, but there’ll be some nerves in Parnell Square reading these figures.

GP …. well … 1% in one poll, 3% in another ….. they’re in the margin of error, and if they hold a seat or two, it will be the direct result personal, rather than national issues. And OTH will be impossible to work out.

Whatever happens between now and Feb 25th – history of some sort awaits us, I think….

The PRC (People’s Republic of Cork)

Well, having spent a lot of time on p.ie defending the spreadsheet against charges of anti-FG bias, and then comes along a poll that suggests a much worse result for them in Cork North-Central than it generated. To recap, the spreadsheet, based on the weekend’s RedC national poll (taken Tues-Thurs last week) projected the result as follows;

FF 10%
FG 40%
LP 22%
SF 11%
GP 2%
OTH 15%

However, a poll conducted by MRBI for the Irish Times, showed FG as much weaker. Some of the figures aren’t entirely clear, but the overall figures reported on p.ie are as follows;

FF 13% (3% higher)
FG 21% (19% lower!)
LP 28% (6% higher)
SF 16% (5% higher)
GP 1% (1% lower)
OTH 21% (6% higher)

The margin of error is 4.5% but even so there is a surprising variance, compared to previous Cork polls run against the spreadsheet projections which were very close here and here. The biggest reason for this would appear to be the retirement of Bernard Allen, as FG are way way down, to the benefit of everyone else (except the GP who are in the margin of error anyway). He was reputed to have a massive personal vote, but given the retirement of FF’s Noel O’Flynn, and FG’s running of former Lord Mayor Dara Murphy (who is supposedly very popular) I decided against making an adjustment in the base figures in the spreadsheet for CNC. However, there are a number of other factors that would result in deviance between the two sets of figures, and these are as follows;

1. The projections are from a RedC poll, and this is an MRBI poll. RedC have given higher FG figures since the LP vote has taken off, and so could be expected to be somewhat higher – the last 5 MRBI polls gave FG a rating of about 4% lower than the preceding RedC poll, and so we could expect a similar deviation here.

2. The RedC poll is based on party preference, whereas this MRBI (unlike national polls for either company) was based on a ballot paper. Also, 30% of those surveyed returned blank papers. While it is hard to draw conclusions from this, it is likely that this would result in a lower preference being expressed for parties whose candidates are new, and still at the “getting-to-know-you” stage of the election process.

3. The polling period was Thursday/Friday as opposed to Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, and this would tally with suggestions that the vote is very volatile.

4. It’s possible that one (or both) of the polls is an outlier.

Personally, I think probably the case that FG are somewhere in between the two figures. Certainly the MRBI figure looks too low, they were at 25.6% last time out, and the suggestion that they’re at barely over four-fifths of their ’07 seems very unlikely, even with the departure of Allen. However, it does seem reasonable to assume that this poll shows they have been hit hard by his leaving the stage, and I’ll be adjusting the base figures to reflect this in the spreadsheet.

What to take from it all?

Well, I think even with the above caveats, it makes the 2nd FG seat significantly less likely, as LP2 would appear likely to finish ahead of FG2. On this poll, that’s Gilroy on 10% who trails Lynch by 8%. LP should be looking to move him in to canvass in areas that she is strong in looking for number ones, on the grounds that she is safe, and sending her in to concentrate in areas where she is competing with O’Brien and/or Mick Barry. A more even split, combined with another couple of percentage points won at the expense of either SF or SP would appear enough to deliver a second seat on these figures. SF appear safe, but the margin of error means that they are far from over the line, and a squeeze in their vote could put this seat in jeopardy again. Barry will be hoping that this poll, showing him shading it from FF, will swing enough votes to give them. But there does, either way 3 left seats out of 4 appears likely.

FF will be disappointed to be well short of a quota and unlikely to take the seat, but it’s within the margin of error of the spreadsheet projection (and actually ahead of that figure). There’s FF supporters saying this is impossible with Martin being leader, but I suspect that the advantage of a Cork leader diminishes when its obvious that he’s not going to be in a position to deliver goodies. However, I’d not write Kelleher off on the basis of this poll, there may be a greater proportion of FF voters among the 30% of refuseniks. But I’d not put money on him unless it was 3/1 or better value….

All in all though, an interesting poll. An done which may temper over-optimism (or pessimism) among all us anoraks….

Table toppers

Folks,

Family stuff has meant I’ve not had the time to write a narrative over each constituency, but you can find below the output of the most recent RedC poll in table format (please let me know if you have any difficulties reading it on your PC, I know another bloggers whose tables only read OK in Firefox).  The format (if you find it hard to read) is Constituency name; Number of seats; FF share of vote, FF seats;FG share of votes;FG share of seats etc, followed by LP, GP, SF & OTH.  If you have any difficulties, please try downloading the PDF version at http://irishpollingreport.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/redc-feb13.pdf

I’ve been following the regional patterns in the polls with interest, as they’ve had a slight deviation from what the spreadsheet was throwing up (noticeably a higher LP vote in Connaught-Ulster), but given the much higher margin of error in these and the fact that they are often only partially reported, I had to date decided against making an adjustment based on them, but last week Prof Michael Marsh of TCD did an analysis of the composite of these that would have a very low margin of error.  Now, you might say that this is not a good measure of current party support in the respective regions, given the timescale involved, and you’d be right, but that doesn’t actually matter for the purposes of this.  What matters with the spreadsheet is that the distribution of the votes is correct, as it simply takes the national totals and distributes them in a way that strives to be the likeliest distribution at their respective party levels in each constituency.

Now, no doubt you’ll disagree with the likely outcomes in terms of seats in a number of constituencies, and that’s grand, I’d not expect two people to agree on all 43 projections, but I’ve a good track record on these before and have been hard on LP in particular to overcome any bias, and am generally assuming a poor split where they’ve a sitting TD running with a new candidate, and transfers from other left candidates no higher than ’07 (and lower when competing with SF).  I’m also assuming much poorer transfers from FG to LP this time, given the way the campaign has gone.

There will be a few constituencies where the result will appear to have given a party a seat too much, and most often this is a result of a ‘spare’ quota largely squatting among disparate OTH candidates.  For example, in Carlow-Kilkenny FG have 37.8% of the vote or 2.27 quotas, but would go from 1 seat to 3.  Similarly in Cavan-Monaghan, where they are projected as getting 39.1%.  In both constituencies, they are looking at an OTH vote of 10-13%, without an obvious individual likely to consolidate that into a seat-winning campaign, and while they may not especially favour FG, they would have to favour LP and/or SF very substantially for the benefit not to accrue to Kenny.  I don’t believe they will, and there will be a lot of those votes which peter out long before reaching a successful candidate.

In terms of overall analysis, as I said yesterday, I think it’s pretty clear that if the current momentum continues, Kenny will be Taoiseach, and most likely Gilmore will be leader of the opposition.   The fallback in FF’s fortunes continues to surprise me, and if it continues they will return a very weakened parliamentary party  to DE next month.  SF’s drop may only be a statistical blip, but I’d imagine they’ll be eyeing nervously the next poll (rumoured to be Lansdowne/Millward Brown in the Indo next week), as memories of their last minute dip in ’07 are fresh enough.  I suspect they may end up on around 10% come polling day, which while down on their previous poll ratings, would still see them return more than 10 seats, and if more fortunate, could even yield mid-teens in their next PP.

Anyways, read them and weep.  (I know I did…)

D

		FF		FG		LP		GP		SF		OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny	5	24.1%	1	37.8%	3	12.7%	1	6.2%		6.6%		12.6%
Cavan-Monaghan	5	16.1%	1	39.1%	3	4.7%		2.2%		27.9%	1	10.0%
Clare	4	20.6%	1	45.5%	2	8.5%		3.7%		5.7%		16.0%	1
Cork E	4	15.9%	1	36.9%	2	31.0%	1	1.8%		8.7%		5.6%
Cork NC	4	9.8%		40.4%	2	22.0%	1	2.0%		11.3%	1	14.5%
Cork NW	3	30.2%	1	46.9%	2	11.0%		2.5%		4.9%		4.7%
Cork SC	5	17.3%	1	41.4%	3	17.2%	1	5.0%		7.3%		11.8%
Cork SW	3	22.4%	1	39.7%	1	18.4%	1	5.1%		7.6%		6.8%
Donegal NE	3	21.2%	1	33.1%	1	12.8%		1.1%		22.8%	1	9.0%
Donegal SW	3	19.0%		29.1%	1	9.2%		0.9%		28.0%	1	13.7%	1
Dublin C	4	4.5%		20.7%	1	31.2%	1	1.5%		12.1%	1	30.0%	1
Dublin Mid-West	4	9.6%		31.4%	2	27.0%	2	8.7%		11.5%		11.9%
Dublin N	4	13.0%		29.6%	1	22.5%	1	13.7%	1	0.0%		21.2%	1
Dublin NC	3	11.5%		39.1%	1	18.3%	1	3.4%		7.6%		20.1%	1
Dublin NE	3	7.8%		33.0%	1	31.7%	1	3.5%		15.2%	1	8.8%
Dublin NW	3	12.5%		21.9%	1	38.2%	1	1.4%		19.3%	1	6.7%
Dublin S	5	8.2%		36.0%	2	23.8%	1	9.2%	1	4.0%		18.8%	1
Dublin SC	5	4.4%		22.6%	1	41.6%	3	1.4%		10.8%		19.1%	1
Dublin SE	4	11.3%		28.9%	1	26.3%	2	9.9%		5.3%		18.3%	1
Dublin SW	4	9.0%		32.2%	1	28.6%	2	2.2%		18.4%	1	9.6%
Dublin W	4	13.7%		24.9%	1	34.1%	2	0.7%		6.9%		19.8%	1
Dun Laoghaire	4	11.7%		28.8%	1	31.7%	2	4.6%		3.6%		19.6%	1
Galway E	4	13.5%		51.5%	2	15.7%	1	0.1%		5.2%		14.0%	1
Galway W	5	12.2%	1	35.9%	2	15.2%	1	4.3%		5.8%		26.6%	1
Kerry N	3	13.3%		39.3%	1	15.2%	1	1.2%		24.9%	1	6.0%
Kerry S	3	15.5%		31.1%	1	16.9%		0.5%		5.9%		30.1%	2
Kildare N	4	8.6%		35.5%	2	29.0%	1	3.3%		4.8%		18.7%	1
Kildare S	3	23.1%	1	24.6%	1	29.9%	1	5.5%		4.6%		12.3%
Laois-Offaly	5	27.6%	1	40.2%	3	9.9%	1	1.0%		9.8%		11.5%
Limerick E	4	14.3%	1	39.5%	2	26.8%	1	1.8%		7.1%		10.6%
Limerick W	3	22.8%	1	51.6%	2	18.8%		1.9%		1.7%		3.3%
Longford-Westmeath	4	18.1%	1	38.5%	2	32.0%	1	0.5%		6.2%		4.7%
Louth	5	7.2%	1	42.4%	2	14.8%	1	4.7%		24.7%	1	6.3%
Mayo	5	16.7%	1	58.7%	3	6.6%		0.0%		8.3%		9.7%	1
Meath E	3	14.7%		47.0%	2	22.9%	1	2.0%		6.8%		6.7%
Meath W	3	13.4%		46.7%	2	13.9%	1	0.9%		16.4%		8.7%
Roscommon S Leitrim	3	14.3%		46.8%	2	12.0%		1.4%		11.4%		14.1%	1
Sligo N Leitrim	3	17.2%		45.6%	2	8.4%		1.3%		14.4%	1	13.1%
Tipperary N	3	13.4%		31.6%	1	15.2%	1	0.6%		6.1%		33.1%	1
Tipperary S	3	13.5%		29.5%	1	14.4%		0.5%		5.2%		36.9%	2
Waterford	4	11.3%		42.9%	2	20.8%	1	0.1%		10.3%		14.6%	1
Wexford	5	18.9%	1	39.9%	2	21.1%	1	1.4%		7.2%		11.6%	1
Wicklow	5	8.7%		39.4%	2	27.6%	2	3.5%		9.0%		11.9%	1
	166	FF	17	FG	73	LP	40	GP	2	SF	11	OTH	23
	%	seats		% of seats
FF	15.0%	17		10.2%
FG	38.0%	73		44.0%
LP	20.0%	40		24.1%
GP	3.0%	2		1.2%
SF	10.0%	11		6.6%
oth	14.0%	23		13.9%

Red see blue ….

RedC figures for tomorrow’s SBP are out, and they show a relative surge to FG. The figures, which were collected over the period Tuesday-Thursday, were mainly taken after the TV3 debate, and would appear to vindicate those of Enda’s handlers that advised him to stay away from the debate. While FF and LP both fall by amounts within the margin of error, it’s not the direction they want to be going. Indeed, given the rather overwhelming consensus that Martin won the debate, Labour will be relieved not to drop by a more significant margin. SF will be more concerned to be down by the full margin of error, and this may be a squeeze that typically happens to smaller parties in the course of campaign. The figures are as follows;

FF: 15% (-2)
FG: 38% (+3)
LP: 20% (-2)
SF: 10% (-3)
GP: 3% (+1)
OTH:14% (+3)

Projected to seats, and the spreadsheet says that comes out as

FG 73
LP 40
FF 17
SF 11
GP 2
OTH 23

Clearly on these figures FG are starting to edge towards single party govt, perhaps with the support of either FF or like-minded Indos. While the OTH category is the least reliable to project, 8 or 9 of these Indos could be described as centre/centre-right, which would leave them tantalisingly close to a majority, and further movement in this direction would be likely to put them in a position to do such a deal. Indeed, another 4% or so and they could possibly get an overall majority themselves. Of course, there were over two weeks to go at the time of polling, and they can’t keep Enda out of the debates forever, but it’s as good a place as they could have wished for.

LP will be relieved that a rumour on p.ie putting them behind FF in this poll didn’t materialise, and it seems that, barring a car-crash moment, they should stay ahead of FF on these figures, if they lost no ground following Tuesday’s debate. Their task now is to persuade people that there is a reason to vote for them instead of FG, and I suspect that this has been their strategy the last few days.

SF will be nervy. A drop of the full margin of error to 10% puts them where they were before the “Doherty Drive” took off, and they may, as I say, be getting squeezed. They will be hoping for a good performance in the ‘gang of 5′ debate, although it will be hard to get a word in edgeways at that, I would have thought.

GP will be pleased to edge up, and on these figures I see them scraping 2 seats. All very hard to say though – they are a party now living in the margin of error. But at least this poll will give them more, rather than less hope.

And OTH, well they’re up. But which OTH? Only time will tell.

I’ll try to get a round-up posted over the weekend.

Bump!

Folks,

Just a reminder that the first GE prediction competition (for predictions made in the first week) closes at midnight tonight. While there has been about 100 downloads of the spreadsheets (a version 2 added a cpl of features I’d meant to put in version 1) there’s only 10 or so entries received to date, so if you get your entry in now you have an excellent chance of winning.

The only entry identified will be the winning one, so don’t feel inhibited by the possibility of failure!

Best of luck!

D

Red See-Saw…

Well, another RedC poll, this time for the SBP, and it does little to quell my suspicions that their previous effort – which gave FG a record 37% – was a bit of an outlier, and brings them back to the top of the 30-35% band they’ve only veered out of twice since October 2008.

Interestingly, they overlapped. The Paddy Power commission was collected between 29th Jan-1st Feb (i.e. last Saturday to Tuesday), whereas tomorrows effort for the SBP was gathered over 1st-2nd Feb (i.e. Tuesday and Wednesday). Therefore, what we can take from the movement represents the reaction of the population to the very start of the campaign. As you probably know, RedC are usually the kindest polls for FG, and so it will be interesting to see if the trend in this poll is also reflected in any Lansdowne or MRBI polls conducted in the rest of the campaign.

Anyways, the figures (with seat projections in brackets) are as follows;

FF 17% -1 (20)
FG 35% -2 (64)
LP 22% +3 (47)
SF 13% +1 (17)
GP 2% -1 (0)
OTH 11% NC (18)

FG may be disappointed to be down, as some of the giddier posters on p.ie were starting to talk about an overall majority, but this may be a blessing in disguise. As I suggested before, many ppl may be nervous about giving them complete control of the shop, and will be happier with a FG/LP govt than one where say Leo Varadkar could take control.

LP while up will be more relieved than pleased, I think. As I said at the time of the last RedC, they needed to be up to at least 20% in this poll. The fact they’ve done that with a bit to spare means they can avoid panicking, and be happy that whatever they’re doing at the moment, it seems to be working. Given the previous poll was taken when the Joan Burton row was at its peak (the Daily Mail headline having come out on the Saturday evening) the last poll may just have been taken at a bad time, and the polls taken around now may see them make up more ground on FG, which of course is their main aim in the course of the campaign.

SF will be happy, steady as she goes, and the public seem unconcerned by Gerry Adams performance when talking about economics on Radio 1 on Sunday. This suggests that their electorate are voting for an opposition, rather than a govt, and realise that by the time SF are actually in Govt, it will be the next generation that will be making the decisions. Either that, or they think he did well enough. If either is the case, it will be extremely hard to make inroads into that vote, and I have to say that I can’t see them ending up below 10%, and they have the potential to end up mid-teens if they have a good campaign.

GP will continue to be anxious, as they bounce around in the margin of error, and really anyone surviving will do so on a personal, rather than a party basis. I was canvassed by them at the door today, and a drench wind-swept neighbour practically pleaded with me to give Trevor Sargant as high a preference as possible. He didn’t sound confident, and while he may get transfers (including a no.3 or 4 from me), he’ll struggle to get in on these figures.

Perhaps the most surprising finding is that OTH remain at the low 11% level they did in the last RedC, which may suggest that they are losing out, even as high profile Indos become known. The questions is, which OTHs are losing – ULA or the Ross/Somerville’s Profits before People Alliance? I suspect over time it may be both, as Indos will have little influence in a Dáil where the govt will have a massive majority, and ppl will see the contest as being an internal one within what will be the governing coalition, with FF providing “mainstream” opposition, and SF providing an “angrier” alternative.

But time will tell.

Well that’s today’s instalment. There’s tell of constituency polls in tomorrow’s Sindo, if they’re done by a real company (as opposed to Quantum Research) I’ll pass my eye over them and report anything interesting. In the meantime, a reminder that the predictions competition closes midnight on Monday night/Tuesday morning – any late entries will go into the competition for predictions made in the final week.

11 and a half hours!

Well, a third poll in 24 hours, this time from MRBI in tomorrow’s Irish Times. The missus is not pleased …..

This time, the figures are a lot closer to the Lansdowne poll in this morning’s Indo, and the numbers all companies had last week. Figures (with seat projections from me) are;

FF 15% – 17
FG 33% – 61
LP 24% – 53
SF 12% – 14
GP 1% – 0
OTH 15%-21

FF will be disappointed that the boost they got in the RedC/Paddy Power reported today isn’t borne out here. They may recover, but it appears that if they do it will be a long road back for them.

The more impulsive of FG supporters may be upset to see the 37% figure they got earlier today from RedC contradicted, but at least it’s ahead of the 30% they got in Lansdowne/MB last night, and at 33% is pretty much dead centre of the two. Cannier heads in FG may see this as a good poll, as scaremongering about a majority FG govt with Leo V as Finance Minister will seem less credible.

LP …. well, I’d say relief more than anything. Having got 24% in L/MB, the 19% in RedC was, as I said, not a good result. Had it been corroborated by this poll, they may have started panicking. Now, 2 of the 3 companies have them 24%, and within shooting distance of FG, which they need for their strategy to be credible. Similarly OTH, who had a nasty downwards lurch in the RedC, and they’ll be delighted to be back where other polls, including RedC, had them last week.

SF will be happy – steady as she goes, and GP will be hoping for some sort of game changer, as they are struggling to be even heard at present.

Hopefully no more polls until the SBP/RedC at the weekend – but if you need a ‘statto’ fix, why not enter the prediction competition here ?

D

12 hours

It now appears that even half a day is a long time in politics. Only last night, this mornings Lansdowne/MB poll was recording a drop of 4% in FG’s support, and now a poll run by RedC over (roughly) the same period shows an increase of the same amount. While polls will often disagree on party levels, they really shouldn’t disagree on the trends, which leaves us to conclude that one of these may be, to come extent, a rogue poll. Either that, or FG are in the 33-34% range that both companies had them last week, and the two ratings of 30% and 37% are outliers at the limit of the margin of error (which is statistically unlikely, but not impossible). Both companies have a comparable record in predicting General Election results, and so, while many partisans will choose the company that gives a higher rating for their party (particularly on p.ie), and some pessimists may choose the lower, I’m personally inclined to think that the average of the two ratings is the most reliable of the lot.

Only time (and further polling evidence) will tell.

Anyways, the RedC/Paddy Power. Poll ratings (and seat projections) are as follows;

FF 18%-26
FG 37%-72
LP 19%-34
SF 12%-15
GP 3%-1
OTH 11%-18

Starkest movements here (only ones outside the margin of error) are FG up 4%, and OTH down 4%. It’s hard to be sure what is behind this movement, given how little has happened in the intervening period. Perhaps there was a cohort out there that was awaiting McWilliams to launch his “New Ireland” movement as a political force, and having seen him decline to do so are going to FG. But 37% is the highest in RedC for an eternity, and they have been 30-36% in their ratings since October 2008. If this isn’t an outlyer but represents a sudden trend towards FG, talk of an overall majority for FG, or at least a minority FG administration with support from FF or “independents” such as Shane Ross, can’t be discounted.

FF will also be pleased at this poll finding. Despite not enjoying any significant new leaders bounce in last week’s RedC poll (and polling an identical 16% in the L/MB polls) they appear to have started making headway since then. This would be unusual, as it would be more normal for the party to get a bigger bounce immediately upon changing leader and then fall back a bit, and it’s possible that it means that Cowen’s continued position as Taoiseach means that it is only dawning on some voters that there has in fact been a change of leadership in the party. If this is the case, they may make further gains in the coming week.

LP are down, and while it is in the margin or error, they will be concerned, as it is one of a number of such polls in RedC, with a cumulative figure that is very much outside the margin of error. They need the launch of their campaign to start moving them I the opposite direction if they are to have the sort of election that will break new ground for them. Only yesterday they were at 24% in Lansdowne, and a 5% differential will make them nervous, particularly those candidates who had expected to be competing with FG for the last seat. I understand the SBP will have weekly RedC polls form now on, and Labour will be looking to be back up to at least 20% in that if their nerves are to be steadied, as FF are now just 1% behind them. Even if they stabilise at 19%, the next poll won’t be good news for them.

SF will be satisfied, I suspect, at holding their support relatively level, and GP would no doubt be happier with the 3% recorded here than the 1% yesterday. But all those supporting candidates in the OTH category will be nervously wondering what the big drop in support for them means.

Finally, as I said, I’d be inclined to consider the average of the two polling company figures as, most likely, closest to where we’re at at the moment (certainly it’s closer to the polls that were out before these two). This, when fed into the spreadsheet comes out at;

FF 17% – 19
FG 33.5% – 63
LP 21.5% – 45
SF 12.5% – 18
GP 2% – 0
OTH 13.5% – 21

I suspect that these totals are going to move a lot over the next 3 weeks…..

GE prediction competition

Folks,

As promised, I’m running two prediction competitions for the forthcoming GE. The first will be based on predictions made in the first week of the campaign, and entries will be taken from 1st-7th February (Irish time!). Competitors will give their best estimate of the seats (and percentage vote share) in each constituency. The winner will be the entrant who is least out in terms of total seats for each party (e.g. if 2 too many for FF and 2 too few for FG, you are 4 out). If there is a tie, it will go to whoever was least out in percentage shares of the vote in each constituency. The winner will not gain any great riches for him/herself, but a small (€10) donation to a charity chosen by them, really just something to make it interesting. A similar prize awaits the winner of a second such competition I’ll arrange for the last week of the campaign (with entries taken up to the close of the polls).

Entries should be entered into the spreadsheet downloadable at this address (you may be asked to wait 20 seconds before downloading), and when you complete this, please save it and send to irishpollingreport@gmail.com . Needless to say, I’ll not use your details for anything other than the competition.

If you have any problems downloading the spreadsheet (or making it work) drop me a mail and I’ll do my best to sort it out.

Good luck!

D

And they’re off!

Well, the Dail has just been dissolved, and the polls are starting to come thick and fast. The Indo has commissioned a poll from Lansdowne/Millward Browne, only days after the Sindo had them do one, and while it’s out tomorrow, RTE announced the result tonight. It’s good for SF, bad for FG, but not much else to see.

FF 16% (NC)
FG 30% (-4)
LP 24% (NC)
SF 13% (+3)
GP 1% (NC)
OTH 16% (+1)

It has to be said that the last L/MB poll had SF lower than other surveys, and so it’s possible that this was an outlier for them, being corrected here. Either way, it’s good for them. FG on the other hand will be disappointed to see a drop outside the margin of error, the first recorded in a poll at the start of a campaign, and they’ll be hoping that this is just a blip. Cetainly, on p.ie FG supporters have been convinced that they are pulling away from LP in public support, and so they’ll be concerned to see a poll suggesting that their lead over Gilmore’s party has been reduced by two-fifths over the course of a single weekend – one which they thought was good for them (and/or bad for LP).

Everything else is m.o.e. stuff.

In terms of seats, I’ve put it through the spreadsheet, and it give the following results (change on the Sindo results in brackets);

FF 17 (-2)
FG 58 (-4)
LP 51 (-3)
SF 18 (+10)
GP 0
OTH 22 (-1)

As you can see, the big rise in SF (as they pass a tipping point) hits LP almost as much as FG in seats, despite them being stable in votes – this is a result of a lot of seats being between LP and SF, and while LP gain a couple of seats from FG on these figures, they lose more to SF, relative to the Sindo poll.

RedC poll out tomorrow for Paddy Power – I’ll try to get the prediction competition up in the next 24 hours.

D

Go!

Hi folks,

Still no sign of an Irish Times poll, so I’ve done a constituency-by-constituency projection based on the average of the RedC and Lansdowne/MB polls published yesterday. Knowing my luck, they’ll come out about 10 minutes after I post this….. As ever, if you spot a mistake, please let me know.

For those of you who might be new here, this projection is based on a spreadsheet I’ve developed that extrapolates national votes to local areas. It’s not a portal to the future, and in some areas, parties are likely to outperform the national swing, and in other areas under-perform it, but this shows roughly what they may be deviating from, and largely those differences should cancel one another out.

I’ve made a few adjustments in the base distributions to acknowledge the change of leadership in FF, reducing the FF base vote in Laois-Offaly and increased it in Cork, with a double boost in CSC. Also a couple of tweaks where local factors may impact (e.g. Shane Ross in Dublin South), so the distribution has changed a tad.

Having made these changes, the headline figures are;

FF 16% (19 seats)
FG 33.5% (62 seats)
LP 22.5% (50 seats)
SF 11.5% (13 seats)
GP 1.5% (0 seats)
OTH 15% (22 seats)

Carlow-Kilkenny (5 seats)
2007
FF 47.7% 3 seats – John McGuiness, Bobby Aylward, MJ Nolan
FG 29.6% 1 seat – Phil Hogan
LP 9.4%
GP 8.0% 1 seat- Mary White
SF 3.8%
OTH 1.6%

Local developments:
John McGuiness has distanced himself from the FF party, and his colleague MJ Nolan has announced that he will not run in 2011.

Likely candidates:
FF: McGuiness, Aylward, Jennifer Murnane
FG: Hogan, John-Paul Phelan, Pat Deering
LP: Anne Phelan, Des Hurley
GP: White
SF: Kathleen Funchion, John Cassin
OTH: Conor McLiam (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 26.8% (2 seats)
FG 37.5% (2 seats)
LP 16.6% (1 seat)
GP 4.3%
SF 8.6%
OTH 3.1%

FF hold on to 2 of their 3 seats here, with the other falling to LP. Depending on the internal SF transfer (and potentially the eveness of the LP vote) FF2 just holds off SF1, FG3 or LP2.

Cavan-Monaghan (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.8% 3 seats – Rory O’Hanlon (C.C.), Brendan Smith, Margaret Conlon
FG 31.2% 1 seat – Seymour Crawford
LP 1.2%
GP 3.6%
SF 20.0% 1 seat – Caoimhghin O’Caolain
OTH 6.2%

Local developments:
Reverts to 5 elected seats as Ceann Comhairle is now from Louth. O’Hanlon and Crawford are retiring. FG field 4 non-TDs in what may be some sort of record.

Likely candidates:
FF Smith, Conlan
FG Joe O’Reilly, Heather Humphries, Peter McVitty, Sean Conlan
LP Liam Hogan
SF O’Caolain + Kathryn Reilly
OTH Johnathon Rainey, John McGuirk

Projection based on poll
FF 16.5% (1 seat)
FG 35.5% (2 seats)
LP 6.1%
GP 1.3%
SF 30.4% (2 seats)
OTH 10.2%

FF hold on to one seat, probably Smith. Reilly makes a gain, with Humphries holding Crawford’s seat.

Clare (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.0% 2 seats – Timmy Dooley, Tom Kileen
FG 35.2% 2 seats – Joe Carey, Pat Breen
LP 1.6%
GP 5.1%
SF 3.4%
OTH 10.7%

Local developments:
Popular FF TD and Defence Minister Tony Kileen is retiring. The intentions of former IND FF TD James Breen who lost his seat in 2007 are unclear, but I’m assuming that he’s running. Former Independent MEP candidate Michael McNamara who polled 10,000 Clare votes in 2009 has joined the LP and will be seeking a seat.

Likely candidates:
FF Dooley, John Hillery
FG Carey, Breen, Tony Mulcahy
LP Michael McNamara
GP Brian Meaney
OTH James Breen, Jim Connolly

Projection based on poll
FF 21.8% 1 seat
FG 42.3% 2 seats
LP 10.6%
GP 2.5%
SF 7.2%
OTH 15.7% 1 seat

A scramble for Kileen’s seat, with it falling to Indo Breen on these figures, from McNamara. NB I’m told that SF aren’t contesting here (which appears strange, but there you go) – not clear at this stage what effect that might have.

Cork E (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.0% 2 seats – Michael Ahern, Ned O’Keefe
FG 30.9% 1 seat – David Stanton
LP 20.9% 1 seat – Sean Sherlock
GP 2.9%
SF 6.8%
OTH 0.5%

Local developments:
A population of c. 4,250 moves out for CNC. Both LP and FG will be hopeful of picking up a FF seat here. Ned O’Keefe has moved on, with son Kevin hoping to hold the seat in his place.

Likely candidates:
FF Ahern, O’Keefe
FG Stanton, Tom Barry, Pa O’Driscoll
LP Sherlock, John Mulvihill Snr
SF Sandra McLennan
OTH Paul O’Neill

Projection based on poll
FF 16.3%
FG 33.5% 2 seats
LP 34.9% 2 seats
GP 1%
SF 10.2%
OTH 4.1%

FF drop 2 seats, with leakage seeing LP and FG both nipping in, in part on SF transfers. Quite close though, and better SF-FF transfers could see one of the 2 FF candidates hold on.

Cork NC (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 35.7% 2 seats – Billy Kelleher, Noel O’Flynn
FG 25.6% 1 seat – Bernard Allen
LP 12.3% 1 seat – Kathleen Lynch
GP 3.6%
SF 8.2%
OTH 12.6%

Local developments:
Boundary revisions see the new voters from Cork E (above) and also a transfer of a population of c.4,300 from Cork NW, making it a slightly more rural constituency. Noel O’Flynn and Bernard Allen have both retired, the latter being replaced by popular former Mayor Dara Murphy. Lynch has a strong running mate in John Gilroy

Likely candidates:
FF Kelleher
FG Murphy, Pat Burton
LP Lynch, Gilroy
SF Johnathon O’Brien
ULA/SP Mick Barry,
OTH Padraig O’Sullivan, Ted Tyan (WP), Fergus O’Rourke

Projection based on poll
FF 8.3%
FG 32.8% 2 seats
LP 25.0% 1 seat
GP 0.3%
SF 12.2%
OTH 21.3% 1 seat

Comments
FF lose both seats, with one going to FG, and the other to the winner of a scramble between LP2, SF and SP. It looks like SP to me on these figures, but both LP2 and SF are competitive, and LP2 could even be elected in addition to SP if they split the vote well (at the expense of FG2).

Cork NW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 53.05% 2 seats – Michael Moynihan, Batt O’Keefe
FG 38.42% 1 seat – Michael Creed
LP 4.91%
GP 3.62%

Local developments:
Batt O’Keefe is retiring.

Likely candidates:
FF Moynihan
FG Creed, Derry Canty, Aine Collins
LP Martin Coughlan
GP Mark Collins
SF Des O’Grady
ULA/PBP Anne Foley

Projection based on poll
FF 32.7% 1 seat
FG 43.1% 2 seats
LP 14.2%
GP 1.3%
SF 2.7%
OTH 6%

FG take a seat from FF, with LP too far behind to pull them in, even with SF and GP transfers.

Cork SC (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.28% 2 seats – Michael Martin, Michael McGrath
FG 28.41% 2 seats – Simon Coveney, Deirdre Clune
LP 9.25% 1 seat – Ciaran Lynch
GP 8.37%
SF 5.11%
OTH 4.57%

Local developments:
Micheál Martin is now leader of FF. Former GP Cllr Chris O’Leary is the SF candidate this time out

Likely candidates:
FF Martin, McGrath
FG Clune, Coveney, Jerry Buttimer
LP Lynch, Paula Desmond
GP Dan Boyle
SF O’Leary

Projection based on poll
FF 19.2% 1 seat
FG 37.2% 2 seats
LP 22.7% 2 seats
GP 2.2%
SF 9.5%
OTH 9.1%

Even Martin taking the leadership (which I give them a one-fifth bonus for) isn’t enough to give FF 2 seats, although it makes Martin’s previously didgy seat very safe. On these figures, Desmond would nudge ahead of O’leary and hold off FG3, but very close, and I’d not write off the former GP man on the basis of this.

Cork SW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.60% 1 seat –Christy O’Sullivan
FG 36.00% 2 seats – Jim O’Keefe, PJ Sheehan
LP 9.60%
GP 6.70%
SF 5.10%

Local developments:
FG’s 2 TDs – Jim O’Keefe and PJ Sheehan are retiring

Likely candidates:
FF O’Sullivan, Denis O’Donovan
FG Jim Daly, Noel Harrington
LP Michael McCarthy
SF Paul Hayes
GP Jennifer Sleeman (although read a rumour on Twitter today that there may be a question mark over her candidacy)
OTH David McInerney, Trich Deeney, John Kearney

Projection based on poll
FF 24.5% 1 seat
FG 37.1% 1 seat
LP 22.1% 1 seat
GP 3%
SF 8.9%
OTH 4.5%

LP take one of the FG seats being retired . FF hold on to the seat.

Donegal NE (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.3% 2 seats – Neal Blaney, Jim McDaid
FG 22.6% 1 seat – Joe McHugh
LP 1.8%
GP 1.4%
SF 17.5%
OTH 6.5%

Local developments:
Jim McDaid has retired, and Blaney isn’t running for personal reasons. Former Indo, Cllr Jimmy Harte, has joined LP and will be their candidate. 4 electoral divisions (pop of 2,351) in the former Stranorlar Rural district are being transfered to South West.

Likely candidates:
FF Charlie McConalogue
FG McHugh
LP Harte
SF Padraig MacLoughlain
OTH Ryan Stewart

Projection based on poll
FF 25% 1 seat
FG 28.6% 1 seat
LP 12.9%
GP 0.6%
SF 24% 1 seat
OTH 9.1%

As predicted by most punters, I think, McDaid’s seat goes to SF. FF hold on to 1 seat, although if geogrpahy becomes an issue, he may struggle, with MacLoughlain also based in Inishowen. Hard to see either FF or SF fail to take a seat on these figures, though, although Harte will try to use his Letterkenny base to his best advantage.

Donegal SW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.5% 2 seats – Mary Coughlan, Pat “The Cope” Gallagher
FG 23.0% 1 seat –Dinny McGinlay
LP 2.8%
GP 1.5%
SF 21.2%
OTH 1.0%

Local developments:
Gallagher has gone to the EP, and SF’s Pearse Doherty won the by-election by a country mile. As already mentioned, rural Stranorlar districts are moved from North East

Likely candidates:
FF Coughlan, Brian O’Domhnaill
FG McGinley
LP Frank McBrearty
SF Doherty
OTH Thomas Pringle, Ann Sweeney

Projection based on poll
FF 18.7%
FG 24.9% 1 seat
LP 10.2%
GP 0.5%
SF 28.8% 1 seat
OTH 16.9% 1 seat

Having lost 1 seat to SF in the by-election, FF lose a second, this time Tanaiste Mary Coughlan msot likely losing out to Indo Thomas Pringle, although McBreaty may push closer than expected if he does well in the new Stranorlar districts on his doorstep, coming in from North-East.

Dublin C (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.5% 2 seats – Bertie Ahern, Cyprian Brady
FG 9.5%
LP 12.6% 1 seat – Joe Costello
GP 5.8%
SF 9.2%
OTH 18.5% 1 seat Tony Gregory

Local developments:
Bertie Ahern is no longer Taoiseach and not expected to run. Tony Gregory died, and Maureen O’Sullivan won the by-election by a comfortable margin. FF at war.

Likely candidates:
FF Brady, Mary FitzPatrick
FG Paschal Donoghue
LP Costello, Aine Clancy
SF Mary-Lou McDonald
OTH Maureen O’Sullivan, Cieran Perry, Christy Burke

Projection based on poll
FF 5.7%
FG 15.1% 1 seat
LP 33.5% 1 seats
GP 1.3%
SF 13.2%
OTH 31.2% 2 seats

FF collapse, and while it’s possible that they could out-perform this if FitzPatrick plays the maverick card, it’s hard to see them do so to the extent that they hold a seat. On these figures, Donoghue’s dream finally comes true. The other FF seat is taken by and Indo (possibly Perry who haas a very strong base in Cabra and comes from the same republican/left gene poll that MLMcD is hoping will vote SF. Clancy misses out by a very small margin, largely as a result of poor vote management (I’m anticipating she gets no more than 33% of LP vote, but needs closer to 38% or so).

Dublin Mid-West
2007 result
FF 33.0% 1 seat – John Curran
FG 12.0%
LP 10.9% 1 seat – Joanna Tuffy
GP 10.8% 1 seat – Paul Gogarty
SF 9.3%
OTH 11.5% 1 seat- Mary Harney

Local developments:
Mary Harney is expected to retire. Ex-Indo Cllr Derek Keating has joined FG ticket with fellow 2007 hopeful Frances FitzGerald. LP have selected former Mayor Robert Dowds to their ticket alongside sitting TD Joanna Tuffy, and SF candidate will be former Belfast City Cllr Eoin O’Broin. Other than that, not much…. Oh yes, and rival ULA campaigns…..

Likely candidates:
FF Curran
FG Keating, Fitzgerlad
LP Tuffy, Dowds
GP Gogarty
SF O’Broin
OTH Gino Kenny (PBP/ULA), Robert Connolly (SP/ULA), Michael Finnegan (WP)

Projection based on poll
FF 10%
FG 26.3% 1 seat
LP 31.5% 2 seats
GP 4.3%
SF 14.9% 1 seat
OTH 13.1%

FG, LP and SF to take a Govt seat each from FF, GP and Mary Harney.

Dublin N (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.1% 2 seats – Michael Kennedy, Dara O’Brien
FG 14.3% 1 seat – James Reilly
LP 9.6%
GP 16.7% 1 seat- Trevor Sargant
SF 2.7%
OTH 14.9%

Local developments:
A large chunk of Swords (pop c. 12,800) has left for Dublin West, and another area around Portmarnock (pop. c. 9,000) goes to NE, making life harder for Kennedy and SP hopeful Clare Daly. Sargant is no longer GP leader.

Likely candidates:
FF Kennedy, O’Brien
FG Reilly, Alan Farrell
LP Brendan Ryan, Tom Kelleher
GP Sargant
OTH Daly (SP/ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 12.7%
FG 24.2% 1 seat
LP 25.7% 2 seats
GP 6.8%
SF 6.4%
OTH 24.1% 1 seat

FF lose both seats, one to LP and the other to SP, with LP taking a second from Sargant.

Dublin NC (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.0% 1 seat – Sean Haughey
FG 25.6% 1 seat – Richard Bruton
LP 7.3%
GP 5.2%
SF 3.8%
OTH 14.2% 1 seat – Finian McGrath

Local developments:
An area around Edenmore (pop. c. 2,750) arrives from NE. Callelly gone. Former GP candidate Browen Maher now in the LP

Likely candidates:
FF Haughey
FG Bruton , Naoise O’Muiri
LP Aodhan O’Riordan
GP Donna Cooney
SF Helen McCormack
OTH McGrath, John Lyons (ULA), Paul Clarke

Projection based on poll
FF 12.2%
FG 32.7% 1 seat
LP 21.4% 1 seat
GP 1.1%
SF 8.6%
OTH 24% 1 seat

LP take a seat from FF, ending the Haughey dynasty.

Dublin NE (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.7% 1 seat – Michael Woods
FG 22.9% 1 seat – Terence Flanagan
LP 15.2% 1 seat – Tommy Broughan
GP 6.7%
SF 13.3%
OTH 2.1%

Local developments:
As mentioned above, new area in Portmarnock, but losing voters in Edenmore. Killian Forde has left SF for LP, but failed to get the nomination ahead of Broughan and Sean Kenny (the ticket that took 2 seats in 1992!).

Likely candidates:
FF Averil Power
FG Flanagan
LP Broughan, Kenny
GP David Healy
SF Larry O’Toole
OTH Brian Greene (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 9.5%
FG 28.2% 1 seat
LP 38% 2 seats
GP 1.5%
SF 17.8%
OTH 5%

On these figures, veteran slug-fest between Larry O’Toole and Sean Kenny favours the LP man, but very close – both are very much in it, and FF transfers likely to decide it.

Dublin NW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 48.8% 2 seats – Pat Carey, Noel Ahern
FG 10.0%
LP 20.3% 1 seat – Roisin Shorthall
GP 2.8%
SF 15.7%
OTH 2.4%

Local developments:
De Brudder is retiring. Apparently worried that Bill Tormey doesn’t send out the appropriate image for FG in DNW, they have added Clontarf-based LM Gerry Breen to the ticket, which should be good for a laugh – prepare to hear about a wave of Romanian drug-pushing prostitutes on a crime spree in a PR from our first citizen of the capital…… LP have added John Lyons to a ticket that will be aiming for 2 seats.

Likely candidates:
FF Carey,
FG Tormey, Breen
LP Shorthall, Lyons
SF Dessie Ellis
OTH Andrew Keegan (PBP-ULA), Daniel Boyne, John Dunne (WP)

Projection based on poll
FF 12.6%
FG 16.7%
LP 42.7% 2 seats
GP 0.0%
SF 21.6% 1 seat
OTH 6.4%

FF lose both seats, one to SF and the other to LP.

Dublin S (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.3% 2 seats – Seamus Brennan, Tom Kitt
FG 27.3% 2 seats – Olivia Mitchell, Alan Shatter
LP 10.4%
GP 11.1% 1 seat – Eamon Ryan
SF 3.0%
OTH 6.9%

Local developments:
Seamus Brennan has passed away, and politically George Lee came and did the same. Tom Kitt insists that he is retiring. A re-drawing of the constituency has seen a largely (upper) middle class area (pop c. 11,700) move in from Dun Laoghaire, and this may prove good hunting grounds for Shane Ross (running on a “Sunday” Independent ticket…) and Peter “Bankers” Matthews, possibly to the detrimnet of Alan Shatter, who will surely know there aren’t 4 FG gene-pool seats here.

Likely candidates:
FF Maria Corrigan
FG Mitchell, Shatter, Matthews
LP Alex White, Aidan Culhane
GP Ryan

Projection based on poll
FF 9.1%
FG 31.6% 2 seats
LP 28.7% 2 seats
GP 4.6%
SF 6.1%
OTH 19.9% 1 seat

Both FF seats go, one to Ross and the other to LP, who also nick in to take Eamon Ryan’s seat. Biggest danger for LP is getting a good split in the vote here, as Aidan Culhane was added very late to the ticket, and failure to do so could see them lose out.

Dublin SC (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 33.1% 2 seats – Sean Ardagh, Michael Mulcahy
FG 14.4% 1 seat – Catherine Byrne
LP 21.1% 1 seat – Mary Upton
GP 5.8%
SF 10.2% 1 seat – Aengus O’Snodaigh
OTH 15.5%

Local developments:
Sean Ardagh is retiring, as is Mary Upton, whose nephew Henry, son of the late Pat Upton, will join Eric Byrne (very narrow loser here in ’07) and Micahel Conaghan as LP try to pull off 3 seats. Their biggest difficulty is likely to be ULA Cllr Joan Collins, who will be supported by former opponent Brid Smith of the SWP/PBP.

Likely candidates:
FF Mulcahy
FG Byrne, Ruairi McGinley, Colm Brophy
LP Byrne, Upton, Conaghan
GP Oisin O’hAlmhain
SF O’Snodaigh
OTH Collins (ULA), Gerry Kelly

Projection based on poll
FF 4.6%
FG 17.9% 1 seats
LP 44% 2 seats
GP 1.0%
SF 12.3% 1 seats
OTH 20.2% 1 seats

FF lose both seats, one to LP, who narrowly lose out to Joan Collins for the last seat. Still, a sign of the times that they would go from narrowly missing a second seat to narrowly missing a third. No doubt this would be a happy outcome for Collins, who was expelled from LP when in the Militant Tendency. LP may yet rue not running Rebecca Moynihan, although one suspects that her day will come.

Dublin SE (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 28.7% 1 seat – Chris Andrews
FG 18.6% 1 seat – Lucinda Creighton
LP 16.7% 1 seat – Ruairi Quinn
GP 13.8% 1 seat – John Gormley
SF 4.7%
OTH 17.4%

Local developments:
Michael McDowell has retired, having got his cards from the electorate. Gormley has become GP leader. Paul Somerville takes time out from his busy schedule to tell us how to do stuff, and Mannix Flynn will be hoping to perform well.

Likely candidates:
FF Andrews
FG Creighton, Eoghan Murphy
LP Quinn, Kevin Humphries
GP Gormley
SF Daithi O’Doolan
OTH Somerville, Flynn, Annette Mooney (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 11.5%
FG 21.8% 1 seat
LP 30% 2 seats
GP 5.3%
SF 6.7%
OTH 24.7% 1 seat

On these figures, FF and GP lose their seats to Humprhies and INDs respectively, although LP need to split vote to a good extent to achieve this (their LEs record here suggests that they can do this)

Dublin SW (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.3% 2 seats – Conor Lenihan, Charlie O’Connor
FG 20.0% 1 seat – Brian Hayes
LP 20.0% 1 seat – Pat Rabbitte
GP 3.7%
SF 12.2%
OTH 4.8%

Local developments:
Rabbitte is no longer LP leader. None of the last 3 poll toppers were elected here in the following election, which may cause Conor Lenihen some anxiety, and he is reputedly seeking to run in Dub Sth.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Connor, Lenihan
FG Hayes
LP Rabitte, Eamon Maloney
SF Sean Crowe
OTH Mick Murphy (SP/ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 9%
FG 26% 1 seat
LP 32.2% 2 seats
GP 0.4%
SF 19.6% 1 seat
OTH 12.7%

Collapse in FF vote, sees LP and SF gain a seat each.

Dublin W (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.5% 1 seat – Brian Lenihan
FG 20.4% 1 seat – Leo Varadkar
LP 17.1% 1 seat – Joan Burton
GP 3.8%
SF 4.8%
OTH 16.5%

Local developments:
Brian Lenihan’s health problems are likely to result in a sympathy vote, and so I’ve increased the base FF vote in the spreadsheet to 50%. Joe Higgins will run, following his successful foray in the recent EP elections. An additional seat, with voters moved in from Swords from Dublin North.

Likely candidates:
FF Lenihan, David McGuinness
FG Varadkar, Kieran Dennison
LP Burton, Patrick Nulty
SF Paul Donnelly
OTH Higgins (SP/ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 13.3%
FG 19.1% 1 seat
LP 36.4% 2 seats
GP 0.0%
SF 7.4%
OTH 23.8% 1 seat

Lenihen appears to be in serious trouble, given the positive adjustment made to the FF base vote. On this, he’d lose his seat, with this and the additional seat going to LP2 and SP.

Dun Laoghaire (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 34.9% 2 seats – Mary Hanafin, Barry Andrews
FG 23.6% 1 seat – Sean Barrett
LP 16.0% 1 seat – Eamon Gilmore
GP 7.7% 1 seat – Ciaran Cuffe
SF 2.2%
OTH 15.7%

Local developments:
One less seat to go round with the boundary review, and a chunk of the consitiuency (largely FG, FF and PD voting) has left for Dub Sth. Eamon Gilmore has become LP leader, and has a high profile running mate in Ivana Bacik, who will challenge strongly for a seat, although FG’s Mary Mitchell-O’Connor and ULA’s Richard Boyd-Barrett will both be hopeful of beating her to it. 3 Ministers in Hanafin, Barry Andrews and Ciaran Cuffe are all up against it.

Likely candidates:
FF Hanafin, Andrews
FG Barrett, Mitchell-O’Connor
LP Gilmore, Bacik
GP Cuffe
OTH Richard Boyd-Barrett (SWP/ULA), Victor Boyhan, Raymond Whitehead

Projection based on poll
FF 11.7%
FG 23.3% 1 seat
LP 34.8% 2 seats
GP 1.9%
SF 4.2%
OTH 24% 1 seat

FF running both TDs lose both, one to LP and one to the constituency revision, with RBB taking Cuffe’s seat. While FG would fancy their chances, there appear to be insufficient transfers for them to take the seat, with GP and SF voters likely to lean left with their preferences, and FF unlikely to go anywhere in particular.

Galway E (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.7% 2 seats – Noel Tracey, Michael Kitt
FG 39.1% 2 seats – Paul Connaughton, Ulick Burke
LP 3.1%
GP 1.9%
SF 3.2%
OTH 13.0%

Local developments:
FG TDs Paul Connaghton and Ulick Burke have both announced thier retirements, and so interim “let’s get this party ended” PD leader Ciaran Cannon seems likely to be in the next Dail. Paddy McHugh is unlikely to run, but another indo (Sean Canney) is likely to take his place on the ticket.

Likely candidates:
FF Kitt, Michael Dolan
FG Cannon, Tom McHugh, Paul Connaughton, Jimmy McClern
LP Colin Keaveny, Lorraine Higgins
SF Dermot Connolly
OTH Canney, Tim Broderick

Projection based on poll
FF 15.6% 1 seat
FG 48.1% 2 seats
LP 13.9% 1 seats
GP 0.0%
SF 6.6%
OTH 15.8%

A tough one to call, given the multiplicity of candidates, but I have SF and GP transfers pushing LP1 ahead of FG3, to see him/her take enough FG transfers on the election of FG2 to beat Canney for the last seat, although Canney could still hold off FF, particularly if he does well on SF transfers. Very tight.

Galway W (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.1% 2 seats – Eamon O’Cuiv, Frank Fahey
FG 20.4% 1 seat – Padraig McCormack
LP 11.1% 1 seat – Michael D
GP 5.5%
SF 3.0%
OTH 23.0% 1 seat – Noel Grealish (PD)

Local developments:
Noel Grealish is now an Indo. Michael D and Padraig McC won’t run, and Margaret Cox looks unlikely to stand – I’ve added most of her vote to the FF base figures.

Likely candidates:
FF O Cuiv, Fahey, Crowe
FG Fidelma Healy-Eames, Brian Walsh, Sean Kyne, Seosamh Ó Laoi
LP Derek Nolan
GP Niall O’Brollachain
OTH Grealish, Catherine Connolly, Eamonn Walsh, Mike Cubbard

Projection based on poll
FF 12.1% 1 seat
FG 29.1% 1 seat
LP 17.9% 1 seat
GP 1.6%
SF 6.6%
OTH 32.7% 2 seats

On these figures, FF lose a seat to Catherine Connolly, with Nolan holding on to Michael Dee’s seat at the first attempt. FG take one seat, but FG2 narrowly loses out to Dev Og.

Kerry N – W Limerick (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 31.3% 1 seat – Tom McEllistrom
FG 32.3% 1 seat – Jimmy Deenihan
LP 10.9%
GP 1.9%
SF 20.4% 1 seat – Martin Ferris
OTH 3.2%

Local developments:
Boundary changes are significnat enough to warrant a name change for the old Kerry Nth – and area with a population of c.5,000 moves to kerry Sth, with a chunk of Western Limericak (pop. c. 13,000) moves intot he new constituency. Arthur Spring seeking to bring a third generation of the dynasty to Kerry North

Likely candidates:
FF McEllistrom, Norma Foley
FG Deenihan, John Sheahan
LP Spring
SF Ferris

Projection based on poll
FF 13.4%
FG 35.1% 1 seat
LP 14.8% 1 seat
GP 0.6%
SF 28.1% 1 seat
OTH 8%

FF lose a seat, but on these figures LP heavily dependent on transfers, and vulernable to a FG surge.

Kerry S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 40.7% 1 seat – John O’Donoghue
FG 25.1% 1 seat -Tom Sheahan
LP 13.5%
GP 1.9%
SF 3.5%
OTH 15.4% 1 seat – Jackie Healy-Rae

Local developments:
As mentioned above, new voters arrive from Kerry Nth. The cap is being passed on to the next generation, with Michael Healy-Rae standing in his father’s stead. FF member Tom Fleming recently announced his intention to run as an Indo, and this will test how much of that vote will stay in the family fold. LP have decided against a dynastic candidate, by fielding a non-Moynihan, and it will be interesting to see how much of that vote was LP.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Donoghue
FG Sheahan, Seamus FitzGerald
LP Marie Maloney
SF Lynn Ni Bhaoigheallain
OTH Michael Healy-Rae, Tom Fleming, Michael Gleeson

Projection based on poll
FF 16.7%
FG 28% 1 seat
LP 19.1% 1 seat
GP 0.6%
SF 6.6%
OTH 28.9% 1 seat

LP re-take the seat, at the expense(s) of the Bull O’Donoghue.

Kildare N (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.5% 2 seats – Aine Brady, Michael Fitzpatrick
FG 21.2% 1 seat – Bernard Durkan
LP 17.4% 1 seat – Emmet Stagg
GP 4.9%
SF 2.4%
OTH 14.5%

Local developments:
A small transfer of population (c.1,300) to Kildare Sth. Michael FitzPatrick has been seriously ill for some time, but he has been reported as seeking re-election, although a 2-candidate strategy may sink FF’s hopes of a single seat here, and Martin may intervene.

Likely candidates:
FF Brady , Fitzpatrick
FG Durkan, Anthony Lawlor
LP Stagg, John McGinley
SF Martin Kelly
GP Shane FitzGerald
OTH Catherine Murphy, Eric Doyle-Higgins, Bart Murphy

Projection based on poll
FF 8.6%
FG 28.9% 1 seat
LP 32.6% 2 seats
GP 1.0%
SF 5.5%
OTH 23.3% 1 seat

FF lose both seats, one to LP and one to Murphy. SF transfers are enough to ward off FG’s ambitions for a 2nd seat, unless LP vote split very badly.

Kildare S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.4% 2 seats – Sean Power, Sean O’Fearghal
FG 17.2%
LP 20.7% 1 seat – Jack Wall
GP 6.2%
OTH 5.6%

Local developments:
Former Minister Sean Power has tried to put some distance between himself and the FF leadership. Jack Wall has stoutly resisted to date having to accept a running mate, and is believed to be hoping to pass the seat on to his son the following election, although I understnad that internal polls are resulting in pressure for him to accept a running mate. FG looking to win back a seat here for the first time since Alan Dukes was their local man.

Likely candidates:
FF Power, O’Fearghal
FG Martin Heydon
LP Wall
SF Jason Turner
OTH Paddy Kennedy, Clifford Reid

Projection based on poll
FF 27.8% 1 seat
FG 25% 1 seat
LP 33.5% 1 seat
GP 3.2%
SF 2.7%
OTH 7.9%

FG take a seat from FF (as expected by most, I think).

Laois-Offaly (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 56.4% 3 seats – Brian Cowen, Sean Fleming, John Maloney
FG 27.4% 2 seats – Olywn Enwright, Charlie Flanagan
LP 2.4%
GP 1.1%
SF 5.1%
OTH 8.6%

Local developments:
A population of c.4,000 in Roscrea is moved from here to Tipp Nth. Big leaders bonus here for Brian Cowen has just gone, and he announced today that he won’t be a candidate (although his brother Barry is very likely). John Moloney rumooured to be quitting. LP will be hoping that the poor LP track record here since Pat Gallagher quit politics will be reversed by their selection of former Leinster Express editor John Whelan, although the local row this provoked may not help him, whatever Oscar Wilde said about bad publicity…although the subsequent split among those who opposed him possibly vindicates LP’s decision to go with him. FG lose Olywn Enright and got almost exactly their national average vote here last time, but are talking up their chances of a third seat.

Likely candidates:
FF Cowen, Fleming, John Foley
FG Flanagan, Liam Quinn, Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy
LP Whelan
SF Brian Stanley
OTH John Leahy, Eddie FitzPatrick, Liam Dumpleton (ex-ULA, now IND), Ray FitzPatrick (ULA), James Fanning

Projection based on poll
FF 28.2% 2 seats
FG 38.5% 2 seats
LP 11.3%
GP 0.5%
SF 12.2% 1 seat
OTH 9.2%

FF lose a seat, with SF looking the best placed to take advantage, although LP are very close to taking a second FF seat

Limerick City (4 seats – reduced from 5 when Limerick East)
2007 result
FF 48.7% 2 seats – Willie O’Dea, Peter Power
FG 25.5% 2 seats – Micahel Noonan, Kieran O’Donnell
LP 10.3% 1 seat – Jan O’Sullivan
GP 2.6%
SF 4.2%
OTH 8.6%

Local developments:
Drops a seat and renamed from Limerick East, with FG-friendly rural wards (pop. c.17,000) deserting Kieran O’Donnell for the County. Willie O’Dea now hoping his removal from cabinet over slandering SF candidate Maurice Quinlivan will distance him from the Govt, and Quinlivan will doubtless be hoping that the trick of winning a court case will give him the sort of boost that helped Pearse Doherty. Both FF and FG may end up dropping a seat, with their better long-term bets (in Power and O’Donnell) losing out to men who probably will be contesting their final GE, and Jan O’Sullivan may have to split her vote generously if she is to pull in running mate Joe Leddin.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Dea, Power
FG Noonan, O’Donnell
LP O’Sullivan, Joe Leddin
SF Maurice Quinlivan
OTH Cian Prendeville (ULA), Kevin Kiely

Projection based on poll
FF 15.7% 1 seat
FG 34% 1 seat
LP 34.7% 2 seats
GP 0.1%
SF 8.4%
OTH 7.1%

O’Donnell (FG) and Power both lose out to the older hands on their ticket, with LP gaining one seat and one leaving the constituency altogether.

Limerick County (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 47.2% 2 seats – John Cregan, Niall Collins
FG 39.9% 1 seat – Dan Nevillle
LP 5.6%
GP 2.4%
SF 0.0%
OTH 4.8%

Local developments:
Gains a bit from Limerick East, and loses a bit to Kerry North. The third seat has done funny things here over the years, going to the PDs, and going to FG2 on one occasion as a result of IND FF candidates splitting the FF vote oddly once, and young LP candidate James Heffernan, who polled very well in the ’09 LEs will be hoping to provide the surprise here this time.

Likely candidates:
FF Cregan, Collins
FG Neville, William O’Donnell , Patrick O’Donovan
LP James Heffernan
Oth John Dillon

Projection based on poll
FF 24.0% 1 seats
FG 48.9% 2 seats
LP 18.4%
GP 1%
SF 2.4%
OTH 5.2%

Not Heffernan’s day on these figures- FF short of a quota, but close enough to hold one of their 2 seats, and FG have enough votes to take the other.

Longford-Westmeath (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.2% 2 seats – Mary O’Rourke, Peter Kelly
FG 30.9% 1 seat, James “Bonkers” Bannon
LP 17.7% 1 seat, Willie Penrose
GP 1.7%
SF 3.9%
OTH 4.6%

Local developments:
Former PD TD, Longford-based Mae Sexton, has provoked deja-vu among those who remember Helena McAuliffe Ennis, and apoplexy among others, by joining LP, and is well placed to take Peter Kelly’s seat if it stays in Longford, although FG have high hopes that Nicky McFadden will bring it across the county line to Westmeath.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Rourke, Kelly, Robert Troy
FG Bannon, McFadden, Peter Burke
LP Penrose, Sexton
SF Paul Hogan
OTH Kevin Moran

Projection based on poll
FF 19% 1 seats
FG 34.8% 1 seats
LP 34.1% 2 seats
GP 0.7%
SF 6.9%
OTH 4.4%

Close, but the addition of gender and county balance to the LP ticket here should be enough to take a second seat, given the SF transfers that will be on offer. Sexton will need some Westmeath votes though, as Penrose will be well aware.

Louth (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.1% 2 seats – Dermot Ahern, Seamus Kirk
FG 29.4% 1 seat – Fergus O’Dowd
LP 5.0%
GP 7.6%
SF 15.0% 1 seat – Arthur Morgan
OTH 0.9%

Local developments:
Hardly anything here really…. Dermot Ahern and Arthur Morgan are retiring, Seamus Kirk won’t be on the ballot as Ceann Comhairle, Gerry Adams seeks a seat in a national parliament (that he’d take) for the first time. Technically, the Baron has had to be appointed to a job that doesn’t really exist, in order to resign from a Parliament that he never actually attended. When East meets West, eh…?

LP looking to take the seat that Michael Bell held in the 80s, assisted not just by a Gilmore Gale but also a large chunk of Meath adjacent to Drogheda (pop. c.17,500) which perviously voted LP in large measure and which Drogheda based Ged Nash will be hoping will seal the deal for him. FG replace Mairead McGuiness with GAA man Peter FitzPatrick

Likely candidates:
FF James Carroll, Declan Breathnach
FG O’Dowd, Fitzpatrick
LP Nash, Mary Moran
GP Mark Deary
SF Adams
OTH Thomas Clare, Gerry Crilly

Projection based on poll
FF 8% 1 seat (CC)
FG 36.8% 2 seats
LP 17.5% 1 seat
GP 2%
SF 27.2% 1 seat
OTH 8.6%

FF lose Ahern’s seat to FitzPatrick, with LP picking up the extra seat in the Southern end of the constituency. Adams romps home.

Mayo (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 24.5% 1 seat – Dara Calleary
FG 53.8% 3 seats – Enda Kenny, Michael Ring, John O’Mahoney
LP 1.2%
GP 0.8%
SF 5.0%
OTH 14.7% 1 seat – Beverly Cooper-Class Act-Flynn

Local developments:
We need more politicians with convictions, they say, but they’re losing one here, with the retirement of Beverly Cooper-Flynn – much to the relief, one imagines, of Dara Calleary who should now be safe. FG leader Enda Kenny will again try for the feat of a 4th seat that they weren’t a million miles off last time, but will be hampered by the decision of ex Indo TD Dr Jerry Cowley to join LP, and also any Adams Avalanche. Word is that ex-LP member and Indo Cllr Michael Kilcoyne isn’t running.

Likely candidates:
FF Calleary
FG Kenny, Ring, O’Mahoney,Michelle Mulherin
LP Cowley
SF Rose Conway-Walsh, Therese Ruane

Projection based on poll
FF 18.7% 1 seats
FG 55.6% 3 seats
LP 8.1% 1 seat
SF 9.3%
OTH 8.4%

FG4 loses out the the last leftist standing, LP on these figures, with the decision of SF to run 2 candidates a strange one…..

Meath E (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 43.6% 2 seats, Mary Wallace, Thomas Byrne
FG 25.9% 1 seat – Shane McEntee
LP 11.9%
GP 3.1%
SF 3.9%
OTH 11.6%

Local developments:
The constituency loses the chunk to Louth and gains c.6.750 votes around Kells from Meath W, dropping the LP vote a percentage point or two. Mary Wallace, has retired, allowing Byrne at least some chance of making it.

Likely candidates:
FF Byrne
FG McEntee, Regina Doherty
LP Dominic Hannigan
SF Michael Gallagher

Projection based on poll
FF 15.1%
FG 40.3% 2 seats
LP 25.3% 1 seat
GP 0.3%
SF 8%
OTH 11%

FF lose both seats, one each to FG and LP.

Meath W (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 51.6% Noel Dempsey, Johnny Brady
FG 29.0% Damien English
LP 4.0%
GP 2.5%
SF 11.3%
OTH 1.6%

Local developments:
Loses Kells to Meath E. This combined with the retirement of Noel Dempsey is expected to give a boost to Navan-based Jenny McHugh who lives in that town and is principal of a local National School. FG and SF both have high hopes here also, with the latter talking up new canididate Peadar Toibin’s chances. Famously, FG supporter Sarah Carey just before the ’07 election said that if Graeme Geraghty ran for the Communist Party in Meath he would be elected, however he ran for FG and got 3%, so perhaps the marxist left will take a seat here in 2011.

Likely candidates:
FF Johnny Brady, Shane Cassells
FG English, Catherine Yore, Ray Butler
LP Jenny McHugh
SF Toibin
OTH Seamus McDonagh (WP)

Projection based on poll
FF 15.8%
FG 39.1% 1 seat
LP 17.1% 1 seat
GP 0.0%
SF 18.2% 1 seat
OTH 9.8%

FF lose both seats, one to LP and the other to SF, FG’s hopes of a 2nd seat being hampered by, IMO, crazy candidate strategy. Expect lots of pictures of Yore in the papers, btw….

Roscommon S Leitrim (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.8% 1 seat – Michael Finneran
FG 39.1% 2 seats, Frank Feighen, Denis Naughton
LP 1.8%
GP 1.8%
SF 8.4%
OTH 10.1%

Local developments:
A population of c.3,400 moves from the Leitrim part of this constituency to Sligo-N.Leitrim. Michael Finneran has surprised many by announcing his retirement. Indo candidate John Kelly did very well here in ’07, polling 10%, and LP will hope that his running under their banner will see them pull off an historic seat here. SF however got 4 times as many votes as their candidate last time, and if SF do very well this time, they will be hard to beat. Add to the mix Luke “Ming” Flanagan, who was elected in Kelly’s ward (alebeit with a much lower vote) in ’09, and who is Roscommon’s Mayor, a certain FG seat, a very likely FG 2nd seat, the locally resented partition of Leitrim, and FF hoping to hold on to what was Finneran’s seat, and this could be a long – and contested count.

Likely candidates:
FF Gerry Kilraine, Ivan Connaughton
FG Feighen, Naughton
LP Kelly
SF Martin Kenny
OTH Flanagan

Projection based on poll
FF 15.6%
FG 44% 2 seats
LP 11.1%
GP 0.7%
SF 13.8%
OTH 14.9% 1 seat

Finneran may have known something …. FF lose their seat here, on these figures Flanagan surfing a wave of Indo votes, although he and Kelly are very competitive and competing on the same patch – however wins that tussle appears very likely to be elected.

Sligo N Leitrim (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.0% 2 seats – Eamon Scanlon, Jimmy Devins
FG 39.3% 1 seat – John Perry
LP 3.9%
GP 3.0%
SF 11.7%
OTH 1.1%

Local developments:
Again there are local resentments about the partitiion of Leitrim between two constituencies unlikely to return a TD from that county. Here the two FF TDs are, somewhat bizarrely, not taking the FF whip, but voting with the government on every issue. Jimmy Devins won’t run again, leaving the task of holding the FF seat to his fellow “rebel” (ahem) Eamon Scanlon. FG2 will be hopeful of taking a seat, as will LP’s Susan O’Keefe, who polled respectably in Ireland-West in the Euros, but SF will consider themselves favourites to take a seat in this constituency if there is a surge to their party, particulary as they got a decent vote here even when polling 1-2% nationally. The dark horse will be Declan Bree (ULA), having taken a seat in the Sping Tide for LP, but since cast aside his Tankie principals for an alliance dominated by Trotskyists.

Likely candidates:
FF Eamon Scanlan, Marc McSharry
FG Perry, McLaughlin
LP Susan O’Keefe
SF Michael Colreavy
OTH Declan Bree, Gabriel McSharry , Michael Clarke

Projection based on poll
FF 17.9%
FG 43.2% 2 seats
LP 10.3%
GP 1%
SF 17% 1 seat
OTH 10.6%

FF lose both of their non-seats, one to FG and the other to SF.

Tipperary N (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 34.3% 1 seat – Maire Hocter
FG 15.9% 1 seat – Noel Coonan
LP 10.3%
GP 1.1%
SF 3.8%
OTH 34.7% 1 seat – Michael Lowry

Local developments:
Lowry Country. More? Oh, well Alan Kelly is running for LP, and so a rainforest of leaflets promoting him should go through the local letterboxes. But other than that, no, sorry. I’ve got nothing.

Likely candidates:
FF Hocter, Michael Smith (jnr)
FG Coonan
LP Alan Kelly
OTH Michael Lowry, Donal O’Regan

Projection based on poll
FF 13.5%
FG 23.4% 1 seat
LP 14.5% 1 seat
GP 0.4%
SF 6.5%
OTH 41.6% 1 seat

FF lose a seat to LP, although if Lowry had a running mate he’d probably take him/her in with him instead.

Tipperary S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 46.4% 2 seats – Mattie McGrath, Martin Manseragh
FG 21.1% 1 seat Tom Hayes
LP 8.8%
GP 1.5%
SF 3.1%
OTH 19.1%

Local developments:
Mattie McGrath. Mattie McGrath! MATTIE MCGRATH!!!!
Did I mention Mattie McGrath?

Likely candidates:
FF Manseragh
FG Hayes, Michael Murphy
LP Phil Prendergast
SF Michael Brown
OTH Mattie McGrath (IFF), Seamus Healy (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 17%
FG 23.8% 1 seat
LP 13.5%
GP 0.5%
SF 5.9%
OTH 39.3% 2 seats

I’m calling it Mattie, ULA and FG, with LP getting ahead of Manseragh on transfers but just too far behind.

Waterford (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 46.4% 2 seats – Martin Cullen, Brendan Keaneally
FG 27.4% 1 seat – John Deasy
LP 11.3% 1 seat – Brian O’Shea
GP 2.1%
SF 6.7%
OTH 6.0%

Local developments:
Martin Cullen has retired, and FG have high hopes for Paudge Coffey to take his seat. Brian O’Shea has retired, and LP are running City-based John Ryan and Dungarvan based Ciara Conway. Ex-WP cllr John Halligan is also expected to poll well.

Likely candidates:
FF Kenneally
FG Deasy, Paudie Coffey
LP Ryan, Conway
SF David Cullinane
OTH Halligan, Joe Conway, Joe Tobin (WP), Ben Nutty

Projection based on poll
FF 13.1%
FG 36.2% 2 seats
LP 21.9% 1 seat
GP 0.0%
SF 11.5%
OTH 17.3% 1 seat

FF lose both seats, one to FG and the other to Halligan.

Wexford (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.2% 2 seats – Sean Connick, John Browne
FG 31.6% 2 seats -Paul Kehoe, Michael D’arcy
LP 13.4% 1 seat Brendan Howlin
GP 1.2%
SF 7.4%
OTH 3.9%

Local developments:
Contrary to earlier rumours, I’m now told that ex-SF candidate John Dwyer will be running as an Independent left-wing candidate, rather than hitch his wagon to the ULA. The outcome here could depend on whether Brendan Howlin splits his vote, as otherwise his running mate Pat Cody could lose out to SF, Dwyer or, conceivably, FG3. FF got just over their national vote here last time, and so require a significant recovery if Browne and Connick are to be doing more than fighting over a single seat.

Likely candidates:
FF Connick, Browne
FG Kehoe, Darcy, Liam Twoomey
LP Howlin, Cody
SF Anthony Kelly
OTH John Dwyer (IND), Seamus O’Brien (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 19.4% 1 seat
FG 36.6% 2 seats
LP 24.2% 2 seats
GP 0.7%
SF 8.5%
OTH 10.6%

FF lose a seat to Cody, who edges ahead of Cody of the pack, assuming he manages about 38-40% of the LP vote – much less and he’d most likely lose out. I’d not write off Dwyer though, and if he holds on to more of the SF vote than I’ve given him here, he could be in the running also.

Wicklow (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.0% 2 seats – Dick Roche, Joe Behan
FG 23.2% 2 seats – Andrew Doyle, Billy Timmons
LP 16.3% 1 seat – Liz McManus
GP 7.4%
SF 5.0%
OTH 10.1%

Local developments:
Joe Behan has since reigned from FF in protest over the early phase of the cuts, although since then has supported much harsher measures, and might decide against running again. Liz McManus has retired, and her son didn’t make it on the 3 person ticket that seems well balanced in terms of geography.

Likely candidates:
FF Dick Roche, Pat Fitzgerald
FG Doyle, Timmons, Simon Harris
LP Anne Ferris, Tom Fortune, Conal Kavanagh
SF John Brady
OTH Joe Behan, Robert Kearns, Peter Dempsey TC,Stephen Donnelly, Thomas Clarke, Gerry Kinsella, Pat Kavanagh

Projection based on poll
FF 8.8%
FG 33.2% 2 seats
LP 29.4% 2 seats
GP 2.4%
SF 10.2%
OTH 15.9% 1 seat

FF lose both the Roche and Behan seats, to LP and Behan, although SF very much in the mix.

———–

So that’s it. Next post will be post GE being called, and will have full details of the predictions competition.

D

… wait for it ….

Folks,

It was suggested to me that the Irish Times had a poll coming out tomorrow, and I was holding off the until the details of that came out, in order to do a ‘poll of polls’ constituency-by-constituency projection, as there’d be little point in dong 3 very similar posts like that within 2 days. There’s no sign of that at this stage (11:20 pm) and so it looks like that was a bum steer. I’ll post one based on the two out today on Monday evening (unless it’s leaked early enough on Monday, in which case I’ll do one based on all three).

On other matters, as mentioned previously, I’m running two predictions competitions for the GE, one for predictions in the first week of the campaign, and the other with predictions made in the last week. Both prizes will be a small donation to a charity chosen by the winners (so you can maintain your anonymity). I’ve put together a spreadsheet that will allow you give your percentage and seat predictions for each party in each constituency, in a format that will make it easy for me to pick out the winner if there are a lot of entrants. In both competitions, the winner will be the person who is out by the smallest total amount in the party seat totals for each constituency – the party vote levels in each constituency is the tie breaker.

I’ve also developed a spreadsheet for the day of the count that should put us ahead of the curve in terms of interpreting early tallies, and I’ll be filling you in more about this over the next week or two.

Anyways, work in the morning. Hopefully you’ll find tomorrows post interesting, and you’ll all enter the competition.

D

…. Get Set ….

Rushing out the door now, but just saw RedC figures tweeted.

FF 16% (+2)
FG 33% (-2)
LP 21% NC
SF 13% (-1)
GP 2% (-2)
OTH 15% (+3)

Not got the time to analyse much further but ran it through the spreadsheet and got the following;

FF 20 seats
FG 59 seats
LP 45 seats
SF 20 seats
OTH 22 seats

Am off now, but will do a constituency profile tomorrow.

On your Marx….

A few polls are expected in the next 48-72 hours – first off the blocks to be leaked is the Lansdowne poll commissioned by the Sindo (apparently showing what they really think of the credibility of Quantum Research).

According to the Twittersphere, the figures are;

FF 16%
FG 34%
LP 24%
SF 10%
GP 1%
OTH 15%

I’ve run this through the spreadsheet and come up with the following figures

FF 19 seats
FG 62 seats
LP 54 seats
SF 8 seats
GP nada
OTH 23 seats

Given Lansdowne are taken less frequently, it’s hard to comment too much on the trends here, but it does appear that FF have made some gains, mainly at the expense of SF, but also to the detriment of LP, FG and GP.

Am going out later (to a real life, rather than political, pantomime) so I don’t know whether I’ll catch the RedC figures. When I do I’ll obviously post for them, and will do a more in depth analysis following this. I’ll also be posting details of a prediction competition in the next day or so (no big prizes, I’m afraid, but a donation to a charity of the winner’s choice, just to make a bit more interesting….)

For what it’s worth, my initial reaction is that FF are lower in this than I’d have expected, given the honeymoon effect new leaders can generally bank upon, and this may be because we are so close to a GE. FG will be glad to be in a position of a clear lead, but will be nervous that they don’t have clear water between themselves and LP, given LP may expect better transfers from SF and OTH.

Quantum Errors…

Well, last weeks RedC poll was pulled (understandably) as a result of the political upheavals making it pointless. While some ppl had already tweeted about being polled, it made little sense to continue spending money on a poll that wouldn’t have much value.

This appears not to have bothered the Sindo, who have ‘commissioned’ another poll from Quantum ‘Research’. Most of you will be aware of my reservations regarding QR ‘polls’….

First off, there was someone on politics.ie claiming to be one of those polled, so it’s possible there was a poll of sorts actually conducted (although that doesn’t prove anything). However, with only 200 respondents claimed, the m.o.e. would be over 6% even if true, so it’s credibility is poor before you even look at the results….

And what are they? Well, not quite as mad as I teased here but still not too easy to believe. Excluding Don’t Knows (of only 14%, surprisingly) the figures are as follows (spreadsheet seat projections in brackets)

FF 9.3% (5 seats)
FG 31.4% (62 seats)
LP 33.7% (69 seats)
SF 9.3% (9 seats)
GP 3.5% (2 seats)
OTH 12.8% (19 seats)

Where to start? Well FF are about two-thirds of their previous record low, and SF who were tied with them in that poll are tied with them in this also. FF down 5% and SF down by the same in the same poll? Can’t see that…..

Also LP are ahead of FG. Now while RedC have been over-stating FG relative to other companies, and under-stating LP by the same measure, it’ hardly credible that LP could be 15% behind FG in one and over 2% ahead of them in another credible company. Particularly hard to believe is that FG would be about 4% lower in a poll that FF (and SF) are also 5% lower.

No doubt they’ve their reasons to publish this nonsense …. don’t be surprised it a future ‘poll’ they commission shows a ‘swing’ that they make a lot of. In the meantime, let’s wait for the next post-Martin/Lenhen/Hanafin/O’Cuiv poll from MRBI, RedC or Lansdowne.

Too … many …. puns ….

Dave broke the news on p.ie today that Paddy Power also asked RedC to measure support for Presidential candidates, and got the following figures;

David Norris (IND) 27%
Mairead McGuinness (FG) 13%
Bertie Ahern (FF) 12%
Michael D. Higgins (LP) 11%
Brian Crowley (FF) 10%
Fergus Finlay (LP) 10%

Given the split in the LP vote it would appear that on these figures. Michael D would make up the 2% on McGuiness on Finlay transfers, and while Crowley might push Bertie ahead, transfers from McGuiness would most likely make the final count a run off between Norris and Higgins (my money on Norris on those figures, although you wouldn’t know for sure where those FF transfers would go).

Party origin of the first preferences (below) is interesting, with Norris most popular among LP, then OTH supporters. Surprisingly, he is as popular among SF voters as FG, although it should be rememebred that there is a FG option on the ballot here, and no SF one.

Michael D comes second to Norris ahead of Fergus Finlay among LP voters, although one presumes if everyone’s favourite Galway socialist (sorry Eamon!) is the LP candidate and Norris doesn’t make the ballot Higgins would be the front runner. One can’t however rule out Norris being nominated by another party, particularly as we’ll have a new Oireachtas when the nomination process kicks off. If FG couldn’t get a good candidate together and LP wouldn’t nominate Norris, it would not be surprising to see them take the opportunity to bask in the reflective glory….

Some will be shocked at 12% supporting Bertie, but I’m not. He still has his supporters, and he was canny enough to get out while he could.

Interesting stuff, and food for thought.

Rising without trace

As promised, I’ve got back to the Paddy Power/Red C poll to have a closer look at what might be happening ‘under the bonnet’.

Usually, there are no polls this early in the year, and I’ve not been able to track down any historic ones taken before the Christmas Tree comes down on Jan 6th. The reasons for this may be practical as much as questions about their inherent value – schools aren’t back until Monday, and many workplaces are light in staff numbers as a result. However, going by two posters on p.ie it appears that the polling was done by staff outside the country, possibly ICM polling, who were identified as the company when they contacted the oft-polled Future Taoiseach.

To recap, the figures (change from Dec ’10 RedC in brackets) were as follows;

FG 35% (+1)
LP 21% (-2)
FF 14% (-3)
SF 14% (=)
GP 4% (+2)
OTH 12% (+2)

When the (late) January polls were conducted in 2010, they showed an increase in support for FF, and so the drop here will be of some concern to them. While the movement is equal to the margin of error, the drop of 3%, bringing them within 1% of their worst poll ever, is not good. The previous 13% poll could have been seen as a rogue poll, but a sequence of 13-17-14 suggests that they are in the low-to-mid teens, and given this was taken just before the first post-budget payslips came out, and before the VHI price hikes were announced, there seems little basis for them hoping to bounce back any time soon.

FG will be moderately pleased with a 1% increase, even if it is well within the margin of error, but even they must be wondering what they have to do to pull out of the 30-35% range. As I noted last month,

They polled 35% in a RedC poll in November 2008, and in the series of more than 20 RedC polls since then, they have always been 30-35%, except for November ’09 when they hit 36%… Over that period, FF have slid from 30% to 17%, without any net improvement for the main opposition party, and the current decline in the LP FPV rating appears to be all going to SF or ULA, with little likelihood of it ever going to FG.

This is further underlined by a poll where FF are down 3%, LP and down 2%, and yet FG are only up a fifth of that. It appears that if Kenny becomes Taoiseach, it will be because everyone else lost it, rather than he won it.

That said, they appear to have learnt a lesson that LP have forgotten. Some months ago, it was being suggested that LP’s popularity was being generated by their leader being absent from the media. LP apparently took this to heart, and his more regular appearances appear to have lost them the first preferences of some of the electorate, for a time at least. Kenny’s handlers, on the other hand, have tried the same trick, and it appears to work whoever the leader. Perhaps a lesson there that you lose more votes by opening your mouth than by keeping it shut, particularly in the current anti-politics mood. It remains to be seen how much he can be kept under wraps in the course of an election campaign, but to date, the success has been impressive.

LP will be disappointed, whatever the caveats. Sure, it’s within the margin of error, it’s before the Dail resumes, and its before the Budget cutbacks in expenditure become evident (tax increases are always immediately obvious, whereas the cuts in health and education reveal themselves over the months, and these are what LP will hope to gain support over). However, this is on top of the previous poll showing a 4% drop, and in line with the MRBI poll that showed LP drop to 25%. Clearly, LP are losing first preferences to Sinn Fein and most likely ULA, although this poll raises the possibility of GP also. While it would be foolish to panic, they will be eyeing the next RedC and MRBI polls to see if this is the start of a trend, or just the normal up and downs that they like all parties experience in polling. If the RedC/SBP later this month has them below 22%, they may have to consider that they’ll enter the GE campaign 10-15% behind FG, and that would make their key strategy, i.e. making the election a choice between Gilmore and Kenny as Taoiseach, a very hard sell.

SF will be happy with this poll, although it says a lot for their recent progress that they’d not be ecstatic. It means RedC have given them the following sequence 9-11-16-14-14 (and MRBI gave them 15% during that period), which suggests that after a strong surge, they have settled down a little at somewhat over 1.5 times what was, until recently, very good polling for them. Figures suggest that this is in equal measure from FF and LP, indicating that while they have created a niche that could broadly be described left/oppositional, it is capable of attracting some FF voters that the LP and ULA weren’t able to reach. Key for them now is consolidating as much of this vote around good candidates who can deliver the growing goodwill that appears to be awaiting collection, although the further complication, evidenced by the hiding of Kenny, is that they may have to make a decision about how much Adams is seen to lead the campaign. Personally, I believe that the likes of Pearse Doherty is a better spearhead than Adams, who carries baggage that many Southern voters find unsettling. While this may not impact upon those whose first preferences they are after, it will among the transfers they need to pull in seats in places like Carlow-Kilkenny, Laois-Offaly and Wicklow, and so there is some serious thinking for them to do, and not an awful lot of time to do it.

The Greens … well…. I don’t know. It is just in the margin of error, but a jump from 2% to 4% is still some surprise. Maybe if the Govt collapses over some point of principle, they may survive. Or maybe it’s just the poll being a bit out. Who knows? But at least it’ll give them some heart, as if being at 4% could be as low as 1%, it also follows that their previous poll rating of 2% could’ve been as high as 5%. It could be enough to get the canvassers out, anyway…

OTH remain the biggest imponderable. They are up to 12%, which is their highest rating in any poll since 2009. Some of it no doubt is the launch of ULA, which may give some focus to the smaller groups on the Marxist left (and who could be looking at 5 seats on the basis of this poll), but it could also be, in part, a result of Indo Cllrs around the country announcing that they are running, pushing up their numbers, and perhaps the odd party hopeful who didn’t get the nomination and who has announced that they’ll run solo. I do strongly believe though that the next RedC should have a category for ULA, who are probably at least as high as GP nationally, provided voters polled know that SP and PBP are part of the Alliance.

Now, the bits in the report….

Definitely, maybe!
As you’ll remember from last month’s analysis, RedC are now trying to capture the likelihood of voters voting particular parties, although the detailed figures they published were for any preference I commented on this last month, and I don’t know if they were listening, but this month they also give some “definite” first preferences in the narrative of the report, and it will be interesting to track these.

Of the “definite” first preferences, the following is revealed in the narrative part of the report;

FG 18% are definitive (with a further 22% saying they are “likely” to)
LP 14% are definitive (with a similar 22% saying they “may well” do so)
FF 9% are definitive (56% say they definitely won’t)

No figures are revealed for SF, GP or OTH.

This, if accurate, suggests that the FG lead over LP in definite first preferences is barely above the margin of error, and an unusually large proportion of their lead is among a section of the electorate that declare themselves to be unsure. Given they appear to have been supporting FG in the polls for some time now, this appears surprising (to me at least), and it may be that their support for FG is not as soft as they perceive it themselves. But if it is correct, it suggests that RedC are finding that a large portion of their otherwise very stable FG support is still unconvinced. Maybe they’re just drama queens, or want to play hard to get. But maybe it’s something to watch, particularly if a new party is created on the right of the spectrum (see below).

Choice of Taoiseach
There been some comment on p.ie on the apparent decline in Gilmore’s lead in choice of Taoiseach, but this is based on a greater choice being offered on this occasion. The previous time RedC asked this question (also for Paddy Power) it was last month and showed a continued increase in his support, with the results being;

Gilmore 45%
Kenny 24%
Cowen 11%

This time, Gerry Adams is included in the list of options, and given the relatively high popularity Gilmore had in successive polls with SF voters on this question, it’s hardly surprising that his share of declared preferences is significantly lower when the question includes the SF President. This weeks poll gives the following figures;

Gilmore 36%
Kenny 27%
Cowen 10%
Adams 9%

Looking at those figures, the Gilmore drop is 9%, and Adams comes from nowhere to get 9%. While there may be other movement, with Kenny up 3% and Cowen down 1%, it seems that the only real change here is in the question being asked. It’s also worth remembering that it was only a few months ago that Gilmore was high 30s in the question without Adams being an option.

On Adams being on the list, it’s interesting that about 50-60% of SF voters (presumably) want him as Taoiseach, although if most of them are happy with Gilmore as Taoiseach (or have him as their first choice) the preferred Govt for their current supporters is a LP/SF govt, with them pretty happy for it to be led by the former WP man. Strange times.

Choice of Finance Minister
The polls also asked who respondents would choose as Minister for Finance from a list of 7 politicians (1 FF, 3 FG and 3 LP). Splitting the vote this way saw Brian Lenihen top the poll at 19%, following by Bruton (18%), Noonan (16%), Burton (9%), Rabbitte (8%), Gilmore (8%), and Varadkar (5% – really!). The LP options provided are surprising, as the most common proposed alternative to Joan Burton as LP Finance spokesperson is former Finance Minister Ruairi Quinn (regarded by many as the best Finance Minister in recent decades), and I’d be interested as to why he was excluded from the list, given Pat Rabbitte was an option, and I’ve never heard him mentioned in this regard.

Resolved into parties that’s FG 39%, LP 25% and FF 19%, which taken in conjunction with the previous heading, suggests that, given the explicit choice, the greatest number of people want a govt with a LP Taoiseach and a FG Minister for Finance, although this sits oddly with the replies to last month’s RedC, which showed more voters have confidence in LP’s ability to handle the economy than FG. Similarly the MRBI last month showed greater public support for LP’s approach to the deficit than FG’s, so it’s hard to make sense of what the people are saying here, unless they think they can put FG people into the job and expect them to implement another party’s policies, which appears somewhat unreasonable….

Spiral of Silence
This is a device RedC have recently devised to measure “Shy” FF voters, if they exist. They’re not sufficiently convinced that it works (otherwise it would be a straightforward adjustment to their figures), but it does mean they have two sets of numbers, and presumably come the GE, whichever comes closest to the result is the one they’ll trumpet the loudest! According to the report, they calcualte it by taking those who are (a) undecided, or (b) refuse to say how they voted last time. They then re-allocate 50% to the party they voted last time (presumably based on the undecideds!) and 50% to who the rest claim they will vote this time. I’m sure I’m not the only person who can see the shortcomings there……

In December, this saw FF gain 1% each off FG and LP. This month, it takes 1% off FG and SF. A certain poster on p.ie will be delighted, therefore, to hear that the “Shy Tory” syndrome would reduce the gap between FG and LP

A Bit of a Breakdown
As I’ve stated elsewhere, you have to be careful to jump to conclusions about regional figures in one or two polls, as (a) the samples are much smaller, and (b) the requirement to have the right mix in your sample only applies to the national sample, e.g. there may be too many middle class voters in one region and too few in another. I tried doing projections based on regional breakdowns sometime before and it gave me about 8 Indos in Leinster, which showed the limits of this.

For the record however, this showed the following figures for parties in Dublin, RO Leinster, Munster and Connaught-Ulster for the parties;

FG – 29-37-38-35
LP – 29-21-18-13
SF – 11-11-14-20
FF – 10-15-17-16
GP – 6- 2- 4- 3
Oth- 15-14-9-13

All caveats applying, this would suggest if accurate that SF are making particular headway outside Leinster, and might suggest that they could fall short of the seats I give them in some Dublin constituencies (notably Dublin NE), but seal the deal in places like Sligo. Other than that, there aren’t any notable deviations outside the larger margin of error that we’d expect from these national figures.

On gender, there’s a remarkably strong gender bias, with men more inclined to vote for the centre-right, and women for the centre-left (in opposition to many international trends), with support for the parties among men and women as follows;

Party-M-F
FG 40-30
LP 19-24
SF 12-15
FF 16-12
GP 3-5
OTH 10-14

Interestingly the trend for women to vote left is mirrored in the OTH columns, which lends support to the idea that this is predominantly left-leaning. The lead of FG/FG over LP/SF/GP/OTH is 56-44% among men, but among women, the figures are reversed, at 42-56%. What this tells us, I suppose, is that women are more conscious of the effects of cuts in services and spending, such as health, education and child benefit, whereas men are more aware of the impact of taxes on their pay packets. And I’m not even going to try to second guess if abortion is in the mix in these figures….

Bad attitudes
Finally, voters were also asked about their attitudes to a number of questions, and agreed (as opposed to disagreed) with the following statements to the following extents;

Govt should have stood down ages ago (62-24)
I’ll never vote FF again “after last year” (51-27)
I’ve less trust in politicians than ever before (66-18)
We shoudl have defaulted rather than take bailout (45-28)*
I’d like to see a younger party leader (57-19)
A new political party is needed to make change (61-25)

*The question regarding default/the bailout is interesting, as it suggests that a majority have a more radical position than most of the main parties, although the extent to which this is thought through, as opposed to a general sentiment, is unclear.

The one on a new party is of course not of great value, as the 61% in favour may all have contradictory views as to what such a party should stand for. Although I still think there’ll be some attempt to fill that gap, the main question being how competent this attempt would be. Given the large component of the 35% FG vote that self-describes as soft, however, one could see them nervous if Chairman Ganley decides that this is the time for him to serve his Fatherland….

Anyways, those are my musings. And I’d just like to end this entry with a quite sincere “best wishes” to Kenny. I really hope he confounds everyone and pulls off a sensational campaign this year, with a historic victory.

Here’s hoping …!

RedC/Paddy Power – constituency projections

Folks,

As I indicated the other week, I’ve been developing a template report for the constituency round-up. I hadn’t expected this to be needed for another couple of weeks, but needs must ….. if you see anything that needs tidying up please let me know so I can catch it for future reports.

There’s also a lot of in-depth stuff I want to look at in the national figures, I’ll not get that done this evening but will by tomorrow evening. But this should be enough to be getting on with for now….

Carlow-Kilkenny (5 seats)
2007
FF 47.7% 3 seats – John McGuiness, Bobby Aylward, MJ Nolan
FG 29.6% 1 seat – Phil Hogan
LP 9.4%
GP 8.0% 1 seat- Mary White
SF 3.8%
OTH 1.6%

Local developments:
John McGuiness has distanced himself from the FF party, and his colleague MJ Nolan has announced that he will not run in 2011.

Likely candidates:
FF: McGuiness, Aylward + a Carlow candidate
FG: Hogan, John-Paul Phelan, Pat Deering
LP: Anne Phelan, Des Hurley
GP: White
SF: Kathleen Funchion, John Cassin
OTH: Conor McLiam (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 24.1% (1 seat)
FG 38.1% (2 seats)
LP 15.6% (1 seat)
GP 8.2%
SF 10.9% (1 seat)
OTH 3.1%

Assuming a good internal SF transfer, I see former Euro-hopeful Funchion, who polled creditably in ’09, taking one FF seat, FG taking another, and LP’s Phelan taking the GP seat (insofar as one can hypothecate thse things). Should they not split it well, it’ll be between FG3 or LP2, depending on who has split their vote most advantageously, but at this stage I’d call it SF.

Cavan-Monaghan (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.8% 3 seats – Rory O’Hanlon (C.C.), Brendan Smith, Margaret Conlon
FG 31.2% 1 seat – Seymour Crawford
LP 1.2%
GP 3.6%
SF 20.0% 1 seat – Caoimhghin O’Caolain
OTH 6.2%

Local developments:
Reverts to 5 elected seats as Ceann Comhairle is now from Louth. O’Hanlon and Crawford are retiring. The intentions of former Indo/Hospitals TD Paudge Connolly are unclear.

Likely candidates:
FF Smith, Conlan, possibly +1
FG Joe O’Reilly, Heather Humphries, possibly +1
LP Liam Hogan + possibly AN Other in Monaghan
SF O’Caolain + Kathryn Reilly
OTH Paudge Conolly, Johnathon Rainey

Projection based on poll
FF 14.1% (1 seat)
FG 35.4% (2 seats)
LP 4.7%
GP 2.8%
SF 33.7% (2 seats)
OTH 9.3%

FF hold on to one seat, probably Smith at the expense of Connolly. Reilly makes a gain, with Humphries holding Crawfords seat.

Clare (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.0% 2 seats – Timmy Dooley, Tom Kileen
FG 35.2% 2 seats – Joe Carey, Pat Breen
LP 1.6%
GP 5.1%
SF 3.4%
OTH 10.7%

Local developments:
Popular FF TD and Defence Minister Tony Kileen is retiring. The intentions of former IND FF TD James Breen who lost his seat in 2007 are unclear, but I’m assuming that he’s running. Former Independent MEP candidate Michael McNamara who polled 10,000 Clare votes in 2009 has joined the LP and will be seeking a seat.

Likely candidates:
FF Dooley +1?
FG Carey, Breen, + AN Other
LP Michael McNamara
GP Brian Meaney
SF A Prior
OTH James Breen, Jim Connolly

Projection based on poll
FF 19.3% 1 seat
FG 42.9% 2 seats
LP 8.4%
GP 5.0%
SF 9.4%
OTH 15.1% 1 seat

A scramble for Kileen’s seat, with it falling to Indo Breen on these figures, from McNamara who I have pulling ahead of SF on GP transfers.

Cork E (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.0% 2 seats – Michael Ahern, Ned O’Keefe
FG 30.9% 1 seat – David Stanton
LP 20.9% 1 seat – Sean Sherlock
GP 2.9%
SF 6.8%
OTH 0.5%

Local developments:
A population of c. 4,250 moves out for CNC. Both LP and FG will be hopeful of picking up a FF seat here. Ned O’Keefe has moved to put some distance between himself and the Govt, and this could see Michael join Bertie, Dermot (and Noel?) Aherns in the ranks of former TDs

Likely candidates:
FF Ahern, O’Keefe
FG Stanton, Tom Barry, Pa O’Driscoll
LP Sherlock, John Mulvihill Snr
SF Sandra McLennan
OTH Paul O’Neill

Projection based on poll
FF 14.7% 1 seat
FG 34.5% 1 seat
LP 34.1% 2 seats
GP 2.4%
SF 12.5%
OTH 1.8%

FF drop a seat, with LP picking it up, in part on SF transfers, which also help (FF1 nudge ahead of FG2).

Cork NC (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 35.70% 2 seats – Billy Kelleher, Noel O’Flynn
FG 25.60% 1 seat – Bernard Allen
LP 12.30% 1 seat – Kathleen Lynch
GP 3.60%
SF 8.20%
OTH 12.60%

Local developments:
Boundary revisions see the new voters from Cork E (above) and also a transfer of a population of c.4,300 from Cork NW, making it a slightly more rural constituency. Noel O’Flynn has attempted to distance himself from the govt. Lynch has a strong running mate in John Gilroy, who may poll ahead of her.

Likely candidates:
FF Kelleher, O’Flynn
FG Allen, Pat Burton
LP Lynch, Gilroy
SF Johnathon O’Brien
ULA/SP Mick Barry

Projection based on poll
FF 4.2%
FG 35.1% 2 seats
LP 24.0% 1 seat
GP 2.6%
SF 15.3% 1 seat
OTH 18.8%

Comments
FF lose both seats, with one going to FG, and the other to the winner of a scramble between LP2, SF and SP. It looks like SF to me on these figures, but very tight and could go to any of them, even if there is no movement from these FPV figures.

Cork NW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 53.05% 2 seats – Michael Moynihan, Batt O’Keefe
FG 38.42% 1 seat – Michael Creed
LP 4.91%
GP 3.62%

Local developments:
Batt O’Keefe may be considering retirement

Likely candidates:
FF Moynihan, O’Keefe
FG Creed, Derry Canty, Aine Collins
LP Martin Coughlan
SF Des O’Grady

Projection based on poll
FF 26.1% 1 seat
FG 48.7% 2 seats
LP 14.1%
GP 3.5%
SF 4.2%
OTH 3.4%

FG take a seat from FF, with LP too far behind to pull them in, even with SF and GP transfers.

Cork SC (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.28% 2 seats – Michael Martin, Michael McGrath
FG 28.41% 2 seats – Simon Coveney, Deirdre Clune
LP 9.25% 1 seat – Ciaran Lynch
GP 8.37%
SF 5.11%
OTH 4.57%

Local developments:
Former GP Cllr Chris O’Leary is the SF candidate this time out

Likely candidates:
FF Martin, McGrath
FG Clune, Coveney, Jerry Buttimer
LP Lynch, Paula Desmond
GP Dan Boyle
SF O’Leary

Projection based on poll
FF 9.9%
FG 39.5% 2 seats
LP 23.0% 2 seats
GP 7.8%
SF 12.8% 1 seat
OTH 7.0%

One FF seat definitely gone, and the second is up for grabs, and on these figures they’d lose both, with SF getting a seat by a decent margin, and Paula Desmond taking the second, although FG3 would also fancy their chances on these figures if they split their vote extremely well and LP split theirs badly.

Cork SW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.60% 1 seat –Christy O’Sullivan
FG 36.00% 2 seats – Jim O’Keefe, PJ Sheehan
LP 9.60%
GP 6.70%
SF 5.10%

Local developments:
FG’s 2 TDs – Jim O’Keefe and PJ Sheehan are retiring

Likely candidates:
FF O’Sullivan + Denis O’Donovan
FG Jim Daly, Noel Harrington
LP Michael McCarthy
SF Paul Hayes
OTH David McInerney

Projection based on poll
FF 18.7%
FG 39.9% 2 seats
LP 22.1% 1 seat
GP 6.2%
SF 11.2%
OTH 1.8%

LP take the FF seat, and FG take both the seats of their retirees, although they need transfers from SF to do it (strange times indeed, but I believe they’d get them)

Donegal NE (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.3% 2 seats – Neal Blaney, Jim McDaid
FG 22.6% 1 seat – Joe McHugh
LP 1.8%
GP 1.4%
SF 17.5%
OTH 6.5%

Local developments:
Jim McDaid has retired. Former Indo, Cllr Jimmy Harte, has joined LP and will be their candidate. 4 electoral divisions (pop of 2,351) in the former Stranorlar Rural district are being transfered to South West.

Likely candidates:
FF Blaney, Keaveney, +AN Other
FG McHugh
LP Harte
SF Padraig MacLoughlain
OTH Ryan Stewart

Projection based on poll
FF 22.9% 1 seat
FG 28.0% 1 seat
LP 9.7%
GP 1.1%
SF 27.6% 1 seat
OTH 10.6%

As predicted by most punters, I think, McDaid’s seat goes to SF.

Donegal SW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.5% 2 seats – Mary Coughlan, Dinny McGinlay
FG 23.0% 1 seat – Pat “The Cope” Gallagher
LP 2.8%
GP 1.5%
SF 21.2%
OTH 1.0%

Local developments:
Gallagher has gone to the EP, and SF’s Pearse Doherty won the by-election by a country mile. McGinley is rumoured to be retiring. As already mentioned, rural Stranorlar districts are moved from North East

Likely candidates:
FF Coughlan, Brian O’Domhnaill
FG Barry O’Neill
LP Frank McBrearty
SF Doherty
OTH Thomas Pringle, Ann Sweeney

Projection based on poll
FF 17.0% 1 seat
FG 25.7% 1 seat
LP 9.7%
GP 1.1%
SF 33.6% 1 seat
OTH 12.8%

On these figures, it would be close, and I ran the count projection 3 times. On balance, I think FF would just hold on if these were the FPVs, but by a very small margin, and would be elected probably beating Pringle, but without reaching the quota. Very very close, though, and depending on how the SF transfers pan out it could go either way.

Dublin C (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.50% 2 seats – Bertie Ahern, Cyprian Brady
FG 9.50%
LP 12.60% 1 seat – Joe Costello
GP 5.80%
SF 9.20%
OTH 18.50% 1 seat Tony Gregory

Local developments:
Bertie Ahern is no longer Taoiseach and not expected to run. Tony Gregory died, and Maureen O’Sullivan won the by-election by a comfortable margin

Likely candidates:
FF Brady, Mary FitzPatrick
FG Paschal Donoghue
LP Costello, Aine Clancy
SF Mary-Lou McDonald
OTH Maureen O’Sullivan, Cieran Perry

Projection based on poll
FF 4.3%
FG 16.1% 1 seat
LP 32.2% 1 seats
GP 4.3%
SF 15.9% 1 seat
OTH 27.2% 1 seat

FF collapse, and on these figures, Donoghue’s dream finally comes true (although by a very narrow margin…). The other FF seat is taken by Mary-Lou. Clancy misses out by less than 1%, and I’d also look out for Perry who may surprise everyone here if he runs.

Dublin Mid-West
2007 result
FF 33.0% 1 seat – John Curran
FG 12.0%
LP 10.9% 1 seat – Joanna Tuffy
GP 10.8% 1 seat – Paul Gogarty
SF 9.3%
OTH 11.5% 1 seat- Mary Harney

Local developments:
Mary Harney is expected to retire. Ex-Indo cllr Derek Keating has joined FG ticket with fellow 2007 hopeful Frances FitzGerald. LP have selected former Mayor Robert Dowds to their ticket alongside sitting TD Joanna Tuffy, and SF candidate will be former Belfast City Cllr Eoin O’Broin. Other than that, not much….

Likely candidates:
FF Curran
FG Keating, Fitzgerlad
LP Tuffy, Dowds
GP Gogarty
SF O’Broin
OTH Gino Kenny (ULA), Michael Finnegan (WP)

Projection based on poll
FF 7.7%
FG 26.2% 1 seat
LP 28.6% 2 seats
GP 9.9%
SF 17.1% 1 seat
OTH 10.5%

FG, LP and SF to take a Govt seat each from FF, GP and Mary Harney.

Dublin N (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.1% 2 seats – Michael Kennedy, Dara O’Brien
FG 14.3% 1 seat – James Reilly
LP 9.6%
GP 16.7% 1 seat- Trevor Sargant
SF 2.7%
OTH 14.9%

Local developments:
A large chunk of Swords (pop c. 12,800) has left for Dublin West, and another area around Portmarnock (pop. c. 9,000) goes to NE, making life harder for Kennedy and SP hopeful Clare Daly. Sargant is no longer GP leader.

Likely candidates:
FF Kennedy, O’Brien
FG Reilly, Alan Farrell
LP Brendan Ryan, Tom Kelleher
GP Sargant
OTH Daly

Projection based on poll
FF 10.1%
FG 23.1% 1 seat
LP 22.4% 1 seat
GP 14.4% 1 seat
SF 8.0%
OTH 22.1% 1 seat

FF lose both seats, one to LP and the other to SP, but Sargant holds on (in part on FF transfers).

Dublin NC (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.0% 1 seat – Sean Haughey
FG 25.6% 1 seat – Richard Bruton
LP 7.3%
GP 5.2%
SF 3.8%
OTH 14.2% 1 seat – Finian McGrath

Local developments:
An area around Edenmore (pop. c. 2,750) arrives from NE. Callelly gone. McGrath has been like Italy during WWII, and is at least ending the phoney war on the winning side – former GP candidate Browen Maher now in the LP

Likely candidates:
FF Haughey
FG Bruton , Naoise O’Muiri
LP Aodhan O’Riordan
OTH McGrath, John Lyons (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 10.2%
FG 34.0% 1 seat
LP 20.2% 1 seat
GP 4.1%
SF 10.8%
OTH 20.7% 1 seat

LP take a seat from FF, ending the Haughey dynasty.

Dublin NE (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.7% 1 seat – Michael Woods
FG 22.9% 1 seat – Terence Flanagan
LP 15.2% 1 seat – Tommy Broughan
GP 6.7%
SF 13.3%
OTH 2.1%

Local developments:
As mentioned above, new area in Portmarnock, but losing voters in Edenmore. Killian Forde has left SF for LP, but failed to get the nomination ahead of Broughan and Sean Kenny (the ticket that took 2 seats in 1992!).

Likely candidates:
FF Martin Brady
FG Flanagan
LP Broughan, Kenny
GP David Healy
SF Larry O’Toole
OTH Brian Greene (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 7.7%
FG 29.0% 1 seat
LP 32.9% 1 seat
GP 4.9%
SF 21.1% 1 seat
OTH 4.3%

Veteran SF campaigner Larry O’Toole takes the seat vacated by Michael Woods. Sean Kenny would be the runner up, and could be expected to do well on transfers, but SF too close to a quota to catch on these figures.

Dublin NW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 48.8% 2 seats – Pat Carey, Noel Ahern
FG 10.0%
LP 20.3% 1 seat – Roisin Shorthall
GP 2.8%
SF 15.7%
OTH 2.4%

Local developments:
Apparently worried that Bill Tormey doesn’t send out the appropriate image for FG in DNW, they have added Clontarf-based LM Gerry Breen to the ticket, which should be good for a laugh, and may see Tormey having at least the bragging rights of being the leading FG candidate after the election. LP have added John Lyons to a ticket that will be aiming for 2 seats.

Likely candidates:
FF Carey, Ahern
FG Tormey, Breen
LP Shorthall, Lyons
SF Dessie Ellis
OTH John O’Neill (Ind Soc)

Projection based on poll
FF 11.6%
FG 16.5%
LP 39.6% 2 seats
GP 1.8%
SF 24.9% 1 seat
OTH 5.7%

FF lose both seats, one to SF and the other to LP.

Dublin S (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.3% 2 seats – Seamus Brennan, Tom Kitt
FG 27.3% 2 seats – Olivia Mitchell, Alan Shatter
LP 10.4%
GP 11.1% 1 seat – Eamon Ryan
SF 3.0%
OTH 6.9%

Local developments:
Seamus Brennan has passed away, and politically George Lee came and did the same. Tom Kitt insists that he is retiring. A re-drawing of the constituency has seen a largely (upper) middle class area (pop c. 11,700) move in from Dun Laoghaire, and speculation persists that one of the FF TDs will follow it, although both Andrews and Hanafin deny it to date.

Likely candidates:
FF Maria Corrigan +(poss) a TD from D/L or DSW
FG Mitchell, Shatter, + AN Other
LP Alex White, & (probably) Lettie McCarthy
GP Ryan

Projection based on poll
FF 10.3% 1 seat
FG 38.9% 2 seats
LP 28.1% 2 seats
GP 9.9%
SF 8.2%
OTH 4.6%

FF marginally hold one of their seats, with the other and GP seats both going to LP, although Ryan could hold off the challenge and take the one Govt seat that appears to be here on these figures, particularly if he does OK on SF and OTH transfers. He could conceivably be caught by SF however, so he’ll take cold comfort from these figures (if he’s reading them, that is!)

Dublin SC (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 33.1% 2 seats – Sean Ardagh, Michael Mulcahy
FG 14.4% 1 seat – Catherine Byrne
LP 21.1% 1 seat – Mary Upton
GP 5.8%
SF 10.2% 1 seat – Aengus O’Snodaigh
OTH 15.5%

Local developments:
Sean Ardagh is retiring, as is Mary Upton, whose nephew Henry, son of the late Pat Upton, will join Eric Byrne (very narrow loser here in ’07) and Micahel Conaghan as LP try to pull off 3 seats. Their biggest difficulty is likely to be ULA cllr Joan Collins, who will be supported by former opponent Brid Smith of the SWP/PBP.

Likely candidates:
FF Mulcahy
FG Byrne, Ruairi McGinley
LP Byrne, Upton, Conaghan
GP Oisin O’hAlmhain
SF O’Snodaigh
OTH Collins (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 2.7%
FG 18.9% 1 seats
LP 40.5% 2 seats
GP 4.0%
SF 15.6% 1 seats
OTH 18.3% 1 seats

FF lose both seats, one to LP, who narrowly lose out to Joan Collins for the last seat. Still, a sign of the times that they would go from narrowly missing a second seat to narrowly missing a third. No doubt this would be a happy outcome for Collins, who was expelled from LP when in the Militant Tendency.

Dublin SE (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 28.7% 1 seat – Chris Andrews
FG 18.6% 1 seat – Lucinda Creighton
LP 16.7% 1 seat – Ruairi Quinn
GP 13.8% 1 seat – John Gormley
SF 4.7%
OTH 17.4%

Local developments:
Michael McDowell has retired, having got his cards from the electorate. Gormley has become GP leader.

Likely candidates:
FF Andrews
FG Creighton, Eoghan Murphy
LP Quinn, Kevin Humphries
GP Gormley
SF Daithi O’Doolan
OTH Mannix Flynn, Annette Mooney (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 11.6%
FG 26.5% 1 seat
LP 31.1% 2 seats
GP 12.2% 1 seat
SF 8.5%
OTH 10.1%

On these figures, Gormely pips Andrews to the last seat, as whichever of them pulls ahead of the other would have enough Govt transfers to take the seat, with LP taking the seat dropped by Andrews, in part on SF transfers.

Dublin SW (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.3% 2 seats – Conor Lenihan, Charlie O’Connor
FG 20.0% 1 seat – Brian Hayes
LP 20.0% 1 seat – Pat Rabbitte
GP 3.7%
SF 12.2%
OTH 4.8%

Local developments:
Rabbitte is no longer LP leader. None of the last 3 poll toppers were elected here in the following election, which may cause Conor Lenihen some anxiety, and he is reputedly seeking to run in Dub Sth.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Connor, Lenihan
FG Hayes
LP Rabitte, Eamon Maloney
SF Sean Crowe
OTH Mick Murphy (SP/ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 7.1%
FG 26.6% 1 seat
LP 30.0% 2 seats
GP 2.7%
SF 22.8% 1 seat
OTH 10.9%

Collapse in FF vote, sees LP and SF gain a seat each.

Dublin W (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.5% 1 seat – Brian Lenihan
FG 20.4% 1 seat – Leo Varadkar
LP 17.1% 1 seat – Joan Burton
GP 3.8%
SF 4.8%
OTH 16.5%

Local developments:
Brian Lenihan’s health problems are likely to result in a sympathy vote, and so I’ve increased the base FF vote in the spreadsheet to 50%. Joe Higgins will run, following his successful foray in the recent EP elections. LP only allowed their selection convention pick one candidate (Joan Burton) and so the running mate chosen might not be Patrick Nulty. An additional seat, with voters moved in from Swords from Dublin North.

Likely candidates:
FF Lenihan
FG Varadkar, Kieran Dennison
LP Burton + AN Other
SF Paul Donnelly
OTH Higgins (SP/ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 11.6%
FG 20.7% 1 seat
LP 35.9% 2 seats
GP 1.0%
SF 9.6%
OTH 21.2% 1 seat

Lenihen appears to be in serious trouble, given the positive adjustment made to the FF base vote. On this, he’d lose his seat, with this and the additional seat going to LP2 and SP.

Dun Laoghaire (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 34.9% 2 seats – Mary Hanafin, Barry Andrews
FG 23.6% 1 seat – Sean Barrett
LP 16.0% 1 seat – Eamon Gilmore
GP 7.7% 1 seat – Ciaran Cuffe
SF 2.2%
OTH 15.7%

Local developments:
One less seat to go round with the boundary review, and a chunk of the consitiuency (largely FG, FF and PD voting) has left for Dub Sth. Eamon Gilmore has become LP leader, and has a high profile running mate in Ivana Bacik, who will challenge strongly for a seat, although FG’s Mary Mitchell-O’Connor and ULA’s Richard Boyd-Barrett will both be hopeful of beating her to it. 3 Ministers in Hanafin, Barry Andrews and Ciaran Cuffe are all up against it, although Hanafin or Andrews may yet stand in Dublin South

Likely candidates:
FF Hanafin and/or Andrews (although if FF are still south of 25% when the election is announced, expect one of them to jump)
FG Barrett, Mitchell-O’Connor
LP Gilmore, Bacik
GP Cuffe
OTH Richard Boyd-Barrett (SWP/ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 13.2%
FG 30.2% 1 seat
LP 31.0% 2 seat
GP 6.1%
SF 6.0%
OTH 13.5% 1 seat

FF running both TDs lose both, one to LP and one to the constituency revision, with RBB taking Cuffe’s seat. While FG would fancy their chances, there appear to be insufficient transfers for them to take the seat, with GP and SF voters likely to lean left with their preferences, and FF unlikely to go anywhere in particular.

Galway E (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.7% 2 seats – Noel tracey, Michael Kitt
FG 39.1% 2 seats – Paul Connaughton, Ulick Burke
LP 3.1%
GP 1.9%
SF 3.2%
OTH 13.0%

Local developments:
FG TDs Paul Connaghton and Ulick Burke have both announced thier retirements, and so interim “let’s get this party ended” PD leader Ciaran Cannon seems likely to be in the next Dail. Paddy McHugh is unlikely to run, but another indo (Sean Canney) is likely to take his place on the ticket.

Likely candidates:
FF Treacy, Kitt
FG 4 from Cannon, John Barton, Tom McHugh, Paul Connaughton, Jimmy McClern
LP Colin Keaveny, Lorraine Higgins
OTH Canney

Projection based on poll
FF 12.7%
FG 50.9% 2 seats
LP 11.2% 1 seats
GP 1.3%
SF 8.6%
OTH 15.3% 1 seats

A tough one to call, given the multiplicity of candidates, but I have SF and GP transfers pushing LP1 ahead of FF and FG3, to see him/her join Canney and 2 FG TDs returned to the Dail. Poor internal LP transfers would hand their seat to FG3 (whoever that is….)

Galway W (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.1% 2 seats – Eamon O’Cuiv, Frank Fahey
FG 20.4% 1 seat – Padraig McCormack
LP 11.1% 1 seat – Michael D
GP 5.5%
SF 3.0%
OTH 23.0% 1 seat – Noel Grealish (PD)

Local developments:
Noel Grealish is now an Indo. Michael D and Padraig McC won’t run, and Margaret Cox looks unlikely to stand – I’ve added most of her vote to the FF base figures.

Likely candidates:
FF O Cuiv, Fahey, Crowe
FG Fidelma Healy-Eames, Brian Walsh, Sean Kyne, Seosamh Ó Laoi
LP Derek Nolan
GP Niall O’Brollachain
OTH Grealish, Catherine Connolly, Eamonn Walsh, Mike Cubbard

Projection based on poll
FF 8.6% (yes, yes, I know….)
FG 30.3% 2 seats
LP 17.5% 1 seat
GP 5.0%
SF 8.6%
OTH 30.0% 2 seats

On these figures, a uniform swing would see FF lose both seats, one to FG and the other to Indo Connolly. Of course, this may be an area they overperform their national result, but if so they’ve less votes elsewhere making up that 14%.

Kerry N – W Limerick (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 31.3% 1 seat – Tom McEllistrom
FG 32.3% 1 seat – Jimmy Deenihan
LP 10.9%
GP 1.9%
SF 20.4% 1 seat – Martin Ferris
OTH 3.2%

Local developments:
Boundary changes are significnat enough to warrant a name change for the old Kerry Nth – and area with a population of c.5,000 moves to kerry Sth, with a chunk of Western Limericak (pop. c. 13,000) moves intot he new constituency. Arthur Spring seeking to bring a third generation of the dynasty to Kerry North

Likely candidates:
FF McEllistrom, Norma Foley
FG Deenihan, John Sheahan
LP Spring
SF Ferris

Projection based on poll
FF 11.9%
FG 35.6% 1 seats
LP 14.0% 1 seats
GP 1.5%
SF 32.1% 1 seats
OTH 4.9%

Not alone do FF lose a seat, but on these figures LP only take that seat on SF surplus votes, from FG2. Closer than Uncle Richard would like, I think….

Kerry S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 40.7% 1 seat – John O’Donoghue
FG 25.1% 1 seat -Tom sheahan
LP 13.5%
GP 1.9%
SF 3.5%
OTH 15.4% 1 seat – Jackie Healy-Rae

Local developments:
As mentioned above, new voters arrive from Kerry Nth. The cap is being passed on to the next generation, with Michael Healy-Rae standing in his father’s stead. There are rumours of another Indo standing to test how much of that vote will stay in the family fold, and there has been suggestions that Toireasa Ferris might move south to contest this constituency for SF. LP have decided against a dynastic candidate, by fielding a non-Moynihan, and it will be interesting to see how much of that vote was LP.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Donoghue
FG Sheahan, Seamus FitzGerald
LP Marie Maloney
SF Lynn Ni Bhaoigheallain or Toireasa Ferris
OTH Michael Healy-Rae

Projection based on poll
FF 16.6%
FG 30.3% 1 seat
LP 19.4% 1 seat
GP 1.6%
SF 9.1%
OTH 23.0% 1 seat

LP re-take the seat, at the expense(s) of the Bull O’Donoghue.

Kildare N (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.5% 2 seats – Aine Brady, Michael Fitzpatrick
FG 21.2% 1 seat – Bernard Durkan
LP 17.4% 1 seat – Emmet Stagg
GP 4.9%
SF 2.4%
OTH 14.5%

Local developments:
A small transfer of population (c.1,300) to Kildare Sth. Michael FitzPatrick has been seriously ill for some time, but he has been reported as seeking re-election.

Likely candidates:
FF Brady , Fitzpatrick
FG Durkan, Anthony Lawlor
LP Stagg, John McGinley
SF Martin Kelly
OTH Catherine Murphy

Projection based on poll
FF 6.6%
FG 30.0% 1 seats
LP 31.0% 2 seats
GP 4.0%
SF 7.3%
OTH 21.1% 1 seat

FF lose both seats, one to LP and one to Murphy. SF transfers are enough to ward off FG’s ambitions for a 2nd seat.

Kildare S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.4% 2 seats – Sean Power, Sean O’Fearghal
FG 17.2%
LP 20.7% 1 seat – Jack Wall
GP 6.2%
SF 0.0%
OTH 5.6%

Local developments:
Former Minister Sean Power has tried to put some distance between himself and the FF leadership. Jack Wall has stoutly resisted to date having to accept a running mate, and is believed to be hoping to pass the seat on to his son the following election. FG loking to win back a seat here for the first time since Alan Dukes was their local man.

Likely candidates:
FF Power, O’Fearghal
FG Martin Heydon
LP Wall + AN Other
GP
SF
OTH Paddy Kennedy

Projection based on poll
FF 25.5% 1 seat
FG 26.1% 1 seat
LP 32.8% 1 seat
GP 6.3%
SF 4.3%
OTH 5.0%

FG take a seat from FF (as expected by most, I think).

Laois-Offaly (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 56.4% 3 seats – Brian Cowen, Sean Fleming, John Maloney
FG 27.4% 2 seats – Olywn Enwright, Charlie Flanagan
LP 2.4%
GP 1.1%
SF 5.1%
OTH 8.6%

Local developments:
A population of c.4,000 in Roscrea is moved from here to Tipp Nth. Big leaders bonus here for Brian Cowen. LP will be hoping that the poor LP track record here since Pat Gallagher quit politics will be reversed by their selection of former Leinster Express editor John Whelan, although the local row this provoked may not help him, whatever Oscar Wilde said about bad publicity…… FG lose Olywn Enright and got almost exactly their national average vote here last time, but are talking up their chances of a third seat.

Likely candidates:
FF Cowen, Fleming, Maloney, John Foley
FG Flanagan, Liam Quinn, Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy
LP Whelan
SF Brian Stanley
OTH John Leahy, Eddie FitzPatrick

Projection based on poll
FF 32.7% 2 seats
FG 38.1% 2 seats
LP 8.3%
GP 0.9%
SF 13.7% 1 seat
OTH 6.4%

FF lose a seat, with SF looking the best placed to take advantage, although LP and FG3 would push hard for it also.

Limerick City (4 seats – reduced from 5 when Limerick East)
2007 result
FF 48.7% 2 seats – Willie O’Dea, Peter Power
FG 25.5% 2 seats – Micahel Noonan, Kieran O’Donnell
LP 10.3% 1 seat – Jan O’Sullivan
GP 2.6%
SF 4.2%
OTH 8.6%

Local developments:
Drops a seat and renamed from Limerick East, with FG-friendly rural wards (pop. c.17,000) deserting Kieran O’Donnell for the County. Willie O’Dea now hoping his removal from cabinet over slandering SF candidate Maurice Quinlivan will distance him from the Govt, and Quinlivan will doubtless be hoping that the trick of winning a court case will give him the sort of boost that helped Pearse Doherty. Both FF and FG may end up dropping a seat, with their better long-term bets (in Power and O’Donnell) losing out to men who probably will be contesting their final GE, and Jan O’Sullivan may have to split her vote generously if she is to pull in running mate Joe Leddin.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Dea, Power
FG Noonan, O’Donnell
LP O’Sullivan, Joe Leddin
SF Maurice Quinlivan
OTH Cian Prendeville (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 13.4%
FG 36.5% 2 seats
LP 31.4% 2 seats
GP 2.2%
SF 10.6%
OTH 5.8%

Well, hard to accept for some, but if FF are on a third of their ’07 vote, they are going to be down at least that in urban areas, and more so if the swing is lower in the rural constituencies (which most ppl argue will be the case). This puts both FF TDs out here, one at the expense of LP, and the other as part of the revision, with O’Donnell holding on.

Limerick County (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 47.2% 2 seats – John Cregan, Niall Collins
FG 39.9% 1 seat – Dan Nevillle
LP 5.6%
GP 2.4%
SF 0.0%
OTH 4.8%

Local developments:
Gains a bit from Limerick East, and loses a bit to Kerry North. The third seat has done funny things here over the years, going to the PDs, and going to FG2 on one occasion as a result of IND FF candidates splitting the FF vote oddly once, and young LP candidate James Heffernan, who polled very well in the ’09 LEs will be hoping to provide the surprise here this time.

Likely candidates:
FF Cregan, Collins
FG Neville, William O’Donnell and/or Patrick O’Donovan
LP James Heffernan

Projection based on poll
FF 22.0% 1 seats
FG 50.6% 2 seats
LP 17.9%
GP 2.5%
SF 3.9%
OTH 3.0%

Not Heffernan’s day on these figures- FF short of a quota, but close enough to hold one of their 2 seats, and FG have enough votes to take the other.

Longford-Westmeath (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.2% 2 seats – Mary O’Rourke, Peter Kelly
FG 30.9% 1 seat, James “Bonkers” Bannon
LP 17.7% 1 seat, Willie Penrose
GP 1.7%
SF 3.9%
OTH 4.6%

Local developments:
Former PD TD, Longford-based Mae Sexton, has provoked deja-vu among those who remember Helena McAuliffe Ennis, and apoplexy among others, by joining LP, and is well placed to take Peter Kelly’s seat if it stays in Longford, although FG have high hopes that Nicky McFadden will bring it across the county line to Westmeath.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Rourke, Kelly, Robert Troy
FG Bannon, McFadden, Peter Burke
LP Penrose, Sexton
SF Paul Hogan
OTH Mark Casey

Projection based on poll
FF 17.4% 1 seats
FG 36.1% 1 seats
LP 33.6% 2 seats
GP 1.6%
SF 9.0%
OTH 2.2%

Close, but the addition of gender and county balance to the LP ticket here should be enough to take a second seat, even if the 3 FG candidates take a higher FPV, given the SF transfers that will be on offer.

Louth (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.1% 2 seats – Dermot Ahern, Seamus “T” Kirk
FG 29.4% 1 seat – Fergus O’Dowd
LP 5.0%
GP 7.6%
SF 15.0% 1 seat – Arthur Morgan
OTH 0.9%

Local developments:
Hardly anything here really…. Dermot Ahern and Arthur Morgan are retiring, Seamus Kirk won’t be on the ballot as Ceann Comhairle, Gerry Adams seeks a seat in a national parliament (that he’d take) for the first time, LP looking to take the seat that Michael Bell held in the 80s, assisted not just by a Gilmore Gale but also a large chunk of Meath adjacent to Drogheda (pop. c.17,500) which perviously voted LP in large measure and which Drogheda based Ged Nash will be hoping will seal the deal for him.

Likely candidates:
FF James Carroll, Declan Breathnach
FG O’Dowd +1
LP Nash, (poss.+ 1 Dundalk based candidate)
GP Mark Deary
SF Adams

Projection based on poll
FF 6.1% 1 seat (CC)
FG 36.8% 2 seats
LP 12.4% 1 seat
GP 6.4%
SF 30.5% 1 seat
OTH 7.8%

FF lose Ahern’s seat to the northenn based FG candidate, with LP picking up the extra seat in the Southern end of the constituency. Adams romps home.

Mayo (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 24.5% 1 seat – Dara Calleary
FG 53.8% 3 seats – Enda Kenny, Michael Ring, John O’Mahoney
LP 1.2%
GP 0.8%
SF 5.0%
OTH 14.7% 1 seat – Beverly Cooper-Class Act-Flynn

Local developments:
We need more politicians with convictions, they say, but they’re losing one here, with the retirement of Beverly Cooper-Flynn – much to the relief, one imagines, of Dara Calleary who should now be safe. FG leader Enda Kenny will again try for the feat of a 4th seat that they weren’t a million miles off last time, but will be hampered by the decision of ex Indo TD Dr Jerry Cowley to join a surging LP, and also any Adams Avalanche. Ex-LP member and Indo cllr Michael Kilcoyne may be the wild card here, although the smart money would appear to have him kingmaker in a battle between LP and SF for the final seat.

Likely candidates:
FF Calleary + AN Other
FG Kenny, Ring, O’Mahoney + Michelle Mulherin
LP Cowley
OTH Kilcoyne

Projection based on poll
FF 16.3% 1 seats
FG 57.3% 3 seats
LP 7.6%
SF 11.7% 1 seats
OTH 7.2%

FG4 loses out the the last leftist standing, SF on these figures, although a decent LP-to-FG transfer would see them pull it off.

Meath E (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 43.6% 2 seats, Mary Wallace, Thomas Byrne
FG 25.9% 1 seat – Shane McEntee
LP 11.9%
GP 3.1%
SF 3.9%
OTH 11.6%

Local developments:
The constituency loses the chunk to Louth and gains c.6.750 votes around Kells from Meath W, dropping the LP vote a percentage point or two. FF will no doubt be hoping that if they hold a seat here, it will be the up and coming Byrne, and not Mary Wallace, who it is rumoured is being leant on by HQ to retire

Likely candidates:
FF Byrne + poss. Wallace
FG McEntee, Regina Doherty
LP Dominic Hannigan
SF Michael Gallagher

Projection based on poll
FF 12.0%
FG 41.3% 2 seats
LP 23.6% 1 seats
GP 2.6%
SF 10.0%
OTH 10.5%

FF lose both seats, one each to FG and LP.

Meath W (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 51.6% Noel Dempsey, Johnny Brady
FG 29.0% Damien English
LP 4.0%
GP 2.5%
SF 11.3%
OTH 1.6%

Local developments:
Loses Kells to Meath E. This combined with the retirement of Noel Dempsey is expected to give a boost to Navan-based Jenny McHugh who lives in that town and is principal of a local National School. FG and SF both have high hopes here also, with the latter talking up new canididate Peadar Toibin’s chances. Famously, FG supporter Sarah Carey just before the ’07 election said that if Graeme Geraghty ran for the Communist Party in Meath he would be elected, however he ran for FG and got 3%, so perhaps the marxist left will take a seat here in 2011.

Likely candidates:
FF Johnny Brady, Shane Cassells
FG English, Catherine Yore
LP Jenny McHugh
SF Toibin

Projection based on poll
FF 13.1%
FG 39.7% 1 seat
LP 15.5% 1 seat
GP 1.8%
SF 21.4% 1 seat
OTH 8.5%

FF lose both seats, one to LP and the other to SF, although less than 1% between McHugh and Yore in the final count on this projection, and so very much in the margin of error.

Roscommon S Leitrim (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.8% 1 seat – Michael Finneran
FG 39.1% 2 seats, Frank Feighen, Denis Naughton
LP 1.8%
GP 1.8%
SF 8.4%
OTH 10.1%

Local developments:
A population of c.3,400 moves from the Leitrim part of this constituency to Sligo-N.Leitrim. Michael Finneran has surprised many by announcing his retirement. Indo candidate John Kelly did very well here in ’07, polling 10%, and LP will hope that his running under their banner will see them pull off an historic seat here. SF however got 4 times as many votes as their candidate last time, and if SF do very well this time, they will be hard to beat. Add to the mix Luke “Ming” Flanagan, who was elected in Kelly’s ward (alebeit with a much lower vote) in ’09, and who is Roscommon’s Mayor, a certain FG seat, a very likely FG 2nd seat, the locally resented partition of Leitrim, and FF hoping to hold on to what was Finneran’s seat, and this could be a long – and contested count.

Likely candidates:
FF ?
FG Feighen, Naughton
LP Kelly
OTH Flanagan

Projection based on poll
FF 15.3%
FG 45.1% 2 seats
LP 10.7%
GP 1.6%
SF 17.1% 1 seats
OTH 10.1%

Finneran may have known something …. FF lose their seat here to SF, who hold off a strong challenge from Kelly who manages to stay ahead of Flanagan, and receive decent transfers from his local rival, but SF are just too far ahead on these figures.

Sligo N Leitrim (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.0% 2 seats – Eamon Scanlon, Jimmy Devins
FG 39.3% 1 seat – John Perry
LP 3.9%
GP 3.0%
SF 11.7%
OTH 1.1%

Local developments:
Again there are local resentments about the partitiion of Leitrim between two constituencies unlikely to return a TD from that county. Here the two FF TDs are, somewhat bizarrely, not taking the FF whip, but voting with the government on every issue. Jimmy Devins is unlikely to run again, leaving the task of holding the FF seat to his fellow “rebel” (ahem) Eamon Scanlon. FG2 will be hopeful of taking a seat, as will LP’s Susan O’Keefe, who polled respectably in Ireland-West in the Euros, but SF will consider themselves favourites to take a seat in this constituency if there is a surge to their party, particulary as they got a decent vote here even when polling 1-2% nationally. The dark horse will be Declan Bree, if he runs (reputedly under the ULA banner), having taken a seat in the Sping Tide for LP, but since cast aside his Tankie principals for an alliance dominated by Trotskyists.

Likely candidates:
FF Eamon Scanlan
FG Perry, McLaughlin
LP Susan O’Keefe
SF Michael Colreavy
OTH Declan Bree, Gabriel McSharry , Michael Clarke

Projection based on poll
FF 16.2%
FG 44.1% 2 seats
LP 9.6%
GP 2.5%
SF 20.2% 1 seat
OTH 7.3%

FF lose both of their non-seats, one to FG and the other to SF.

Tipperary N (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 34.3% 1 seat – Maire Hocter
FG 15.9% 1 seat – Noel Coonan
LP 10.3%
GP 1.1%
SF 3.8%
OTH 34.7% 1 seat – Michael Lowry

Local developments:
Lowry Country. More? Oh, well Alan Kelly is running for LP, and so a rainforest of leaflets promoting him should go through the local letterboxes. But other than that, no, sorry. I’ve got nothing.

Likely candidates:
FF Hocter, Michael Smith (jnr)
FG Coonan
LP Alan Kelly
OTH Michael Lowry

Projection based on poll
FF 12.5%
FG 21.8% 1 seat
LP 14.7% 1 seat
GP 0.8%
SF 8.9%
OTH 41.4% 1 seat

FF lose a seat to LP, although if Lowry had a running mate he’d probably take him/her in with him instead.

Tipperary S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 46.4% 2 seats – Mattie McGrath, Martin Manseragh
FG 21.1% 1 seat Tom Hayes
LP 8.8%
GP 1.5%
SF 3.1%
OTH 19.1%

Local developments:
Mattie McGrath. Mattie McGrath. Did I mention Mattie McGrath?

Likely candidates:
FF Manseragh
FG Hayes, Michael Murphy
LP Phil Prendergast
SF Michael Brown
OTH Mattie McGrath (IFF), Seamus Healy (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 15.9%
FG 25.7% 1 seats
LP 13.6%
GP 1.2%
SF 8.3%
OTH 35.4% 2 seats

Well, a hard one to call, given we don’t even know who McGrath will run for, but I’m calling it him, ULA and FG, with LP getting ahead of Manseragh on transfers but just too far behind.

Waterford (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 46.4% 2 seats – Martin Cullen, Brendan Keaneally
FG 27.4% 1 seat – John Deasy
LP 11.3% 1 seat – Brian O’Shea
GP 2.1%
SF 6.7%
OTH 6.0%

Local developments:
Martin Cullen has retired, and FG have high hopes for Paudge Coffey to take his seat. This appears to be an exception to the LP rule where sitting TD will be required to have a running mate although if ex-WP cllr John Halligan signed up I could see him added to the ticket

Likely candidates:
FF Kenneally
FG Deasy, Paudie Coffey
LP O’Shea
SF David Cullinane
OTH John Halligan, Joe Conway

Projection based on poll
FF 11.0%
FG 37.7% 2 seats
LP 20.6% 1 seats
GP 1.4%
SF 14.2% 1 seats
OTH 15.0%

FF lose both seats, one to FG and the other to SF.

Wexford (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.2% 2 seats – Sean Connick, John Browne
FG 31.6% 2 seats -Paul Kehoe, Michael D’arcy
LP 13.4% 1 seat Brendan Howlin
GP 1.2%
SF 7.4%
OTH 3.9%

Local developments:
Contrary to earlier rumours, I’m now told that ex-SF candidate John Dwyer will be running as an Independent left-wing candidate, rather than hitch his wagon to the ULA. The outcome here could depend on whether Brendan Howlin splits his vote, as otherwise his running mate Pat Cody could lose out to SF, Dwyer or, conceivably, FG3. FF got just over their national vote here last time, and so require a significant recovery if Browne and Connick are to be doing more than fighting over a single seat.

Likely candidates:
FF Connick, Browne
FG Kehoe, Darcy, Liam Twoomey
LP Howlin, Cody
SF Anthony Kelly
OTH John Dwyer (IND), Seamus O’Brien (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 17.8% 1 seat
FG 38.3% 2 seats
LP 23.7% 1 seat
GP 1.7%
SF 11.0% 1 seat
OTH 7.5%

FF lose a seat to SF, who edges ahead of Cody (LP) and FG3 on OTH transfers. I’d not write off Dwyer though, and if he holds on to more of the SF vote than I’ve given him here, he could be in the running also.

Wicklow (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.0% 2 seats – Dick Roche, Joe Behan
FG 23.2% 2 seats – Andrew Doyle, Billy Timmons
LP 16.3% 1 seat – Liz McManus
GP 7.4%
SF 5.0%
OTH 10.1%

Local developments:
Joe Behan has since reigned from FF in protest over the early phase of the cuts, although since then has supported much harsher measures, and might decide against running again. Liz McManus has retired, and her son didn’t make it on the 3 person ticket that seems well balanced in terms of geography. The probable absence of Deirdre De Burca will be another factor, and SF members here have been talking up their chances.

Likely candidates:
FF Dick Roche +1
FG Doyle, Timmons, Simon Harris
LP Anne Ferris, Tom Fortune, Conal Kavanagh
SF John Brady
OTH Joe Behan?, Robert Kearns

Projection based on poll
FF 6.8%
FG 33.8% 2 seats
LP 27.2% 2 seats
GP 6.6%
SF 12.5% 1 seat
OTH 13.0%

FF lose both the Roche and Behan seats, to LP and SF, although Behan if he runs would challenge SF strongly for the last seat on these figures.

—–

Laterz!

D

First of the year….

Hi y’all,

Am out at a family thing but have downloaded the spreadsheet onto my Dad’s PC (and OpenOffice) and have managed to run the figures of today’s RedC/Paddy Power Poll (having failed to presuade GoogleDocs and Excel to run it).

According to the spreadsheet, the projected figures would be as follows;

FG 35% – 64 seats
LP 21% – 46 seats
FF 14% – 16 seats
SF 14% – 23 seats (yes, yes, I know….)
GP 4% – 2 seats
OTH 12% – 15 seats (5 of them ULA, 4 more also l/w)

I’ll try to get the detailed figures and deeper analysis this evening.

D

Twit to who?

I hope you all had a great break and that 2011 is good to you.

I’ve signed up to Twitter, mainly as news of polls tends to break there quicker, but will also put alerts up when I’ve done to the projections after each poll. You can get it at;

http://twitter.com/#!/dotski_w

Tweet

What’s another year?

Hi folks,

I’ve only had time now to get back to Sunday’s RedC poll, with various family and work festivity related activities. I’ll do a quick run over of it here, and over the Xmas I’m re-vamping the spreadsheet, mainly to have it produce a template “constituency-by-constituency” report, which will mean I can produce the round-up profiles much quicker, and they’ll have more details to hand (e.g. 2007 result, 2011 candidates etc).

In keeping with the general speculation about how firm the figures for each party might be (notably LP but latterly SF) the latest RedC offering has tried to start measuring this further, and publishes a bit more data for us to ponder over.

In addition to asking for first preferences, the poll asked respondents how likely they were to give a vote (of any preference, apparently) to the various parties. “Definitely will” was the response of 9% for FF, 19% FG, 16% LP, 10% SF and 4% GP. Adding “Most likely” and “Probably will” swelled these figures to 27% (FF), 61% (FG), 59% (LP), 30% (SF), and 23% (GP). Of the “Definitely won’t” figures, FF top the poll with 60%, compared to SF (59%), GP (55%), FG (24%) and LP (22%).

These figures are obviously less helpful without the same question being asked re first preferences. Given LP are within the margin of error of FG in all these, but 11% behind them in first preferences, it suggests that they are doing much better on transfers, which would be expected, given Gilmore’s consistently high percentage as choice of Taoiseach (further borne out by RedC for Paddy Power in a story broken by Dave in p.ie here) at 45% compared to 24% Kenny and 11% Cowen, and the remaining vote is apparently more solid;

Labour has also seen a decline in their fortunes over the past month, with their share falling back to 23%. However, the support they are left with now does appear to be a lot more loyal. Our analysis in October suggested the Labour vote was perhaps the flakiest of all parties at that time; but having lost some of that “flaky” vote to other parties, those they are left with appear to be much more loyal. The party also has the lowest level of outright rejection among the electorate than any other party, and as such do still have an opportunity to win over more voters.

Perhaps surprisingly, given how well I believe Noonan has been doing, FG’s margin of error increase is despite, rather than because of perceptions about their economic competence. Again from the report;

The only results that Fine Gael will not be as happy with from this poll, is that the electorate are still not convinced on their ability to handle the economy. Just over 1 in 4 (26%) do have confidence in the party, and only just over half (51%) of their own supporters. A further concern is that more voters have confidence in Labour to handle the economy (29%), and only 1 in 10 of their supporters does not have confidence in them, with others unsure.

Of equal concern to them must be their inability to increase their vote in RedC polls outside the margin of error, regardless of how everyone else is losing support. They polled 35% in a RedC poll in November 2008, and in the series of more than 20 RedC polls since then, they have always been 30-35%, except for November ’09 when they hit 36%, and are currently at 34%. Over that period, FF have slid from 30% to 17%, without any net improvement for the main opposition party, and the current decline in the LP FPV rating appears to be all going to SF or ULA, with little likelihood of it ever going to FG. The “soft” LP vote appears, therefore, to be to it’s left, with little interest in movement to FG or FF among declared LP voters, even when they are going down in the polls.

RedC’s official report makes no mention of the regional breakdown, but one FG staff member posting on p.ie has made much of them being well ahead of LP in Dublin among the 300 respondents living there, while ignoring the corollary that a much larger sample of non-Dublin shows LP increasing their vote outside the capital! Given the small size of those samples, the fact that regional sub-samples aren’t necessarily representative of social class etc in the way that the national sample has to be, and the fact that the two sub-samples contradict each other, as does a poll conducted the same week by MRBI, I think no-one seriously believes that you can assume anything from this. Including that FG staffer.

On SF, the report states, somewhat amusingly, that “The party also has the most loyal support, with 61% claiming they will definitely vote for this party, whatever happens between now and the election.”. Given 55% say they definitely won’t even give them a preference, that appears to be a misstatement…

The figure they give in the tables a definitely giving them a vote is a more reasonable 10%, and so it appears that this figure was how many of their own first preference voters would definitely vote SF somewhere on the ballot paper (a somewhat different statistic!). However, the “definitely vote” figure includes the second preferences of other parties, and so the figure is more than a bit meaningless, unless there is further data that they’ve chosen not to release into the wild just yet.

FF see a small recovery from the 13% in the RedC/Sun to 17%, but it’s still not great reading for them. Cowen in particular will be depressed to see he is 4th choice for FF leader at 7%, behind Lenihan, Martin and Hanafin. I can see a lot of tough talking going on over the Christmas break, although there appears to be a move away from Lenihan among FF TDs, and I understand that Martin’s people want to wait until after the election.

In terms of the left (I include LP, SF, GP and 50% the OTH figure for this) the poll confirms a general trend in this direction that will no doubt annoy the proprietor of ‘Independent’ Newspapers in particular. LP were between 15-20% for all RedC polls from March ’09 to March ’10, but in April of this year their RedC/SBP rating suddenly started to catch up with MRBI. Since that poll, they have recorded 24-22-27-23-27-27-23, which for all the talk of peaks and troughs shows surprisingly little movement, with all seven scores within the margin of error of the 25% average.

However, if you take the total left vote in those seven polls it has been stable enough for the first four (Apr-Sept 2010) but now has had a surge (largely in the SF column, but only in part at the expense of LP) at 40 – 41.5 – 40 – 40.5 – 45 – 45 – 44. Now, SF may hold on to that newer vote (personally I suspect they’ll hold about half of it in a GE, putting them around 12% or so on the day), but if they don’t it would appear unlikely that it’ll go to FG, with LP and OTH being, in my view, the likeliest destinations, given the trends to date, and the obvious political distance between SF and FG. There is, however, a chance that some of it will return to FF where it was originally from (although that looks less likely by the month).

Anyway, that’s it, and this should be my last blog entry of the year (unless another poll comes out). To summarise the year in terms of RedC, there was no December ’09 poll, but one in January, which gave us figures of FF 27%, FG 34%, LP 17%, SF 8%, GP 5% and OTH 9%. We finish the year with FF down 10%, FG unchanged, LP up 6%, SF up 6%, GP down 3% and OTH up 1%. So that’s the Govt down 13%, LP and SF up 6% each, and another 1% in the OTH column.

Merry Christmas to all of you and yours,

D

Noonan for Taoiseach?

Well, I’ve recovered from my hangover and run the spreadsheet before heading off on a family pre-chrimbo thing. The figures in the SBP have been confirmed as follows;

FF 17
FG 34
LP 23
GP 2
SF 14
OTH 10

I’ll have a bit of a closer look at this when I get the paper, but the spreadsheet says….

FF 23 seats
FG 64 seats
LP 44 seats
SF 21 seats
GP nada
OTH 14 seats

It may be the start of a fightback for FF, but they’re still short of the sort of critical mass they need for seats in most areas, although another 3% or so would see them start to climb more significantly. A very good poll for FG – you have to go back 12 polls to find them as high as this, I suspect their new leader Michael Noonan will claim credit for this

LP miss out on a lot of seats by a small margin here, mainly to SF and FG in that order. SF down a bit, but would still be delighted with this.

As I say, am off on family stuff but will return to this poll later.

D

RedC tweeted

I’m just heading out the door, but RedC’s poll tomorrow has been published on the Tweetersphere….

http://twitter.com/#!/RayMcAdam

FF 17%
FG 34%
LP 23%
SF 14%
GP 2%
OTH 10%

Apparently those expressing a preference are “more certain” than previously… movement from most recent RedC on headline figures is FF +4%, FG +2%, LP NC, SF -3%.

I’ll get projected seats up later this evening.

D

Budget Blues II

Well, just when you think the polls might settle down a bit….

As noted at the time, the previous MRBI poll in September followed the FG pairings fiasco, and saw them slump, and a LP surge. This month’s offering follows strong performances by Michael Noonan and the apparent abduction of Enda, and this appears to have pushed them 5% ahead of their future partners/deadly enemies (delete as applicable). However, it does not appear that this is simple movement from LP to FG. What is notable is that the LP losses appear to mirror gains to SF and OTH, with FG gains at the expense of FF. Obviously, in reality there’s more movements involved than that, but the biggest changes appear to be within the left and right, and not between them.

The biggest gain in relative terms is SF, in the aftermath of the Adams announcement and Donegal by-election, and there is also an apparent increase in the OTH column, which may or may not be reflecting an impact from the launch of the ULA.

FG will be of course chuffed with this performance, which puts them ahead of LP in first preferences, and for Gilmore, he now faces a dilemma. While there has been a very clear left-wing vote of 40%+ or so in MRBI and Lansdowne for some time now, this has slowly been approached by RedC, and now all polling companies appear to agree with this finding, which is consistent with polling data on choice of Taoiseach. However, the composition of that 40% plus varies considerably depending on what’s news, and, ironically, movement to the left within this block makes an Enda Kenny led Govt even more likely, as it reduces LP’s seat total, relative to FG. While some of this is likely to drift to Gilmore in a GE campaign by virtue of his status as potential Taoiseach (and all polls for some time have shown LP as first or second place), he still needs to persuade a large chunk of the left to vote for him if he is to lead the next Government..

Now, the spreadsheet. As you know, I ran it when the poll was released and got the following totals;

FF 25
FG 58
LP 48
SF 23
GP 0
OTH 12

Where did they fall this time?

Carlow-Kilkenny
FF 27% (2 )
FG 36% (2 )
LP 20% (1 )
SF 12%
GP 5%

FF hold 2 of their 3 seats here, with LP’s Anne Phelan winning handily enough. I have SF narrowly beating off her running mate and taking FF2 to the last count, but see FF holding them off. FG take Mary White’s seat without breaking a sweat, but not at the races for three.

Cavan-Monaghan
FF 18% (1)
FG 33% (2)
LP 7%
SF 34% ( 2)
GP 2%
IND 7%

FF lose 2 seats here, with ex-CC Rory O’Hanlon not running and Mags Conlon not making it. SF2 takes a seat, holding off challenges from LP’s Liam Hogan and IND Paudge Connolly on these figures.

Clare
FF 24% (1 )
FG 40% (2 )
LP 9%
SF 10.6%
IND 13.8%(1)

FF lose a seat, on these figures IND taking it in a tight tussle with SF and new LP candidate, former Indo euro-hopeful Michael McNamara, who will be hoping to broaden their appeal.

Cork E
FF 17% (1 )
FG 31% (1)
LP 37% (2)
SF 13%

FF would lose a seat to LP, but a strong challenge from SF could see them competitive. FG2 not completely out of it, and FF1 not safe.

Cork NC
FF 7%
FG 29.8% (2)
LP 26.4% (1)
SF 16.3% (1)
OTHs 20%

Very tight here, and the uncertainty about how Mick Barry is doing in INDs makes it next to impossible to call the last seat with much confidence. FF drop 2 seats, I have one going to SF reasonably handy, and the other is between Barry, LP2 and FG2. I have LP2 (Gilroy) falling behind Barry, and enough of his votes going to FG to keep both their candidates ahead of Barry. If Gilroy is ahead of either Barry or FG2 however, it would be him winning on transfers. If Lynch is LP2, Barry would win on her transfers. FF facing wipeout here – if I was them I’d pay their canvassers danger money here….

Cork NW
FF 31% (1)
FG 45% (2)
LP 17%
SF 5%
GP 2%

FG take two seats, holding off a strong challenge from LP, who would pull it off if they got stronger SF transfers than I assume.

Cork SC
FF 14% (1 )
FG 35% (2 )
LP 26% (1 )
SF 13% (1 )
GP 4%

FF lose a seat, but to SF rather than LP’s Paula Desmond, who on these figures would need LP vote to be evenly split to hold off O’Leary. FG3 not really at the races.

Cork SW
FF 22% (1)
FG 39% (1 )
LP 23% (1 )
SF 12%
GP 4%

LP look set to take a seat from one of the retiring FG TDs here, comfortably enough on these figures.

Donegal NE
FF 27% (1 )
FG 25% ( 1)
LP 12%
SF 28% ( 1)

SF look pretty safe to take a FF seat (if one can call Jim McDaid that)

Donegal SW
FF 20% (1 )
FG 23% (1 )
LP 12%
SF 34% (1 )
IND 10%

As you were. McBreaty (and SF2, if such a creature exists by then) would both challenge Mary Coughlan strongly on Pringle transfers, but on these figures she’d hold on (although perhaps not reaching the quota)

Dublin C
FF 10%
FG 12.6%
LP 33% (2)
SF 17% ( 1)
OTH 26% (1)

FF lose both seats (including Him), one handily enough to SF, the other a dogfight between FG, LP2 and possibly Cieran Perry (his vote is of course hardest to estimate). On these figures, I’d see LP2 winning as long as ahead of either one of the other two, but she will probably need at least a third of the LP vote to pull through. If O’Sullivan doesn’t run, I’d call it as Perry taking her seat (despite being the other end of the constituency) as there’s a decent amount of her vote that would be looking for an Indy leftwinger.

Dublin Mid-West
FF 11%
FG 21% (1)
LP 34% (2)
SF 18% (1)
GP 5%

FF, ex-PD and GP all lose out to LP2, GP and SF.

Dublin N
FF 14% (1)
FG 19% (1)
LP 28% (1)
SF 9%
GP 8%
OTH 22% (1)

Tight enough on these figures. Reilly and LP1 (probably Ryan) look safe as houses, but after that its hard to call. The current increase in OTH voters (which has occurred post the launch of ULA) and a bigger store of SF transfers mean that SP’s Clare Daly looks good to take the 3rd seat, with the last one between FF1 and LP2 (Tom Kelleher), with Sargant too far behind. On this projection, I see FF getting enough GP transfers to stay ahead of Kelleher.

Dublin NC
FF 14%
FG 29% (1)
LP 25% (1)
SF 12%
OTH 19% (1)

Hard to see anything other than LP ending another FF dynasty here.

Dublin NE
FF 10%
FG 24% (1)
LP 37% (1)
SF 22% (1)

SF take Michael Woods seat on these figures – one of a number of LP2s that fall to any Adams Avalanche

Dublin NW
FF 15%
FG 11%
LP 41% (2)
SF 25% (1)

LP vote would have to be disastrously split (say 3/1 or worse) for 2nd seat to be under threat on these figures, while the other gain from FF, for SF, looks safe enough. FG will be hoping that moving the current Lord Mayor onto the ticket with Mad Bill Tormey will help them, but it’s hard to see them pull it off.

Dublin S
FF 14% (1)
FG 34% (2)
LP 34% (2)
SF 9%
GP 5%

FF and GP both lose a seat to LP, who have selected Alex White, and are currently weighing up Aidan Culhane and Hettie McDonald (figuratively, I’d stress). If FF underperform (and going from 2 popular TDs to none, this could happen) a third left seat would appear possible given over 2 LP quotas and 14% between SF and GP. If LP start rising again in the polls, don’t be surprised if they choose to add both Culhane & McDonald to maximise the vote and let the voters decide.

Dublin SC
FF 7%
FG 16% (1)
LP 40% (3)
SF 17% (1)
OTH 19%

FF lose both seats here, with both gains going to a LP who narrowly missed out on 2 seats in ’07. However, they face a very strong challenge from ULA’s Joan Collins, and may yet rue leaving Rebecca Moynihan off the ticket.

Dublin SE
FF 14% (1)
FG 22% (1)
LP 37% (2)
SF 9%
GP 7%

Kevin Humprhies takes John Gormley’s seat, Chris Andrews holds on, more in the absence of a clear challenger.

Dublin SW
FF 10%
FG 21% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 23% (1)

FF lose both seats, to LP’s Eamon Delaney and SF’s Sean Crowe respectively.

Dublin W
FF 14.6%
FG 15.9% (1)
LP 40% (2)
SF 10%
OTH 19.7 % (1)

A seat here for LP2 (Burton’s running mate to be selected by head office, so presumably not Nulty who would have had the votes at a convention, I’m told), and another for veteran Trotskyist Joe Higgins, sees a fight for the final seat between Brian Lenihen and Leo Varadkar. Would you believe, I have Leo V winning on SF (hence anti-govt) transfers? Lenihen fails to stem the tide if FF are at 11% in Dublin as this poll suggests, and would join his brother among the ranks of unemployed.

Dun Laoghaire
FF 16% (1)
FG 26% (1)
LP 36% (2)
SF 7%
GP 3%
OTH 13%

A dropped seat here (5 to 4), and FF and GP both lose a seat, with Ivana Bacik finally making it to the Dail. The higher profile Hanafin is getting as a potential leader will probably push her ahead of Barry Andrews, and I see her just about pipping Richard Boyd Barrett for the final seat, although by close enough.

Galway E
FF 16% (1)
FG 46% (2)
LP 15% (1)
SF 9%
IND 13%

FF lose a seat to LP, and nearly another to Indo Sean Canney. FG would have been well placed to pick up a third seat, but for the retirement of their local complement, but they would appear unlikely to be in the running for this, unless FF slide further. Interestingly, LP have selected barrister Lorraine Higgins to run alongside Colm Keaveny, which should make it all interesting…..

Galway W
FF 11% (1)
FG 24% (1)
LP 25% (1)
SF 9%
GP 2%
OTH 30%(2)

Most constituency polls I’ve come across have been very close to the constituency projections, but there have been claims of a FF poll here that has them on 30%. Sounds well fishy to me, given they were under their national vote here in ’07 and that would have them on double it now, but just thought I’d mention it. On these figures, they are lucky to hold on to one seat (in part because LP only run one candidate), with Grealish being joined by ex-LP Cllr Catherine Connolly on the Independent benches.

Kerry N
FF 15%
FG 32% (1)
LP 16% (1)
SF 33% (1)

Arthur Spring becomes the third member of that dynasty to make DE, at the expense of FF. Both FG and SF may consider a running mate, which could put him under pressure, however.

Kerry S
FF 20%
FG 27% (1)
LP 22% (1)
SF 10%
OTH 20% (1)

LP to take a seat from “The Bull”, assuming they ever get around to selecting a candidate…. The younger Healy Rae to hang on, although the rumoured move of SF’s Toireasa Ferris would put the cat among the pigeons….

Kildare N
FF 10%
FG 25% (1)
LP 37% (2)
SF 8%
OTH 20% (1)

FF collapse, with Catherine Murphy and LP’s John McGinlay looking set to take a seat each, in part from SF transfers.

Kildare S
FF 30% (1)
FG 23% (1)
LP 36% (1)
SF 5%
GP 4%

Sean Power’s attempts to distance himself from FF seem unlikely to save him, as FG are well placed to take a seat here for the first time since Alan Dukes in 1997 (yes, really…!) LP1 and FF1 are both safe, but LP2 really needs LP to be at over 30% nationally to be competitive here.

Laois-Offaly
FF 38% (2)
FG 34% (2)
LP 10.3%
SF 14.4% (1)

Even with a ‘leaders bonus’ for FF (which could be gone by election day) FF should hold 2 seats here, however the 3rd should be beyond them, with Maloney the likeliest casualty. FG survive the loss of Olwyn Enright who (really has) left politics to spend more time with her family (which I understand had a happy addition to it this week – good luck to all of them). I have SF taking the final seat, although I’ve made no adjustment (good bad or indifferent) for the controversial selection of high profile candidate John Whelan by LP. I’d say this could be an interesting one.

Limerick City
FF 16% (1)
FG 30% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 11%

Willie O’Dea holds on, but Power loses out to LP’s Joe Leddin who would be elected on Quinlivan’s transfers. Kieran O’Donnell is likely to rue the resurrection of his running mate Noonan, and the constituency revision which loses him a big chunk of votes. SF will hope that Quinlivan’s relatively high profile will see him outperform even the Adams avalanche predicted in this poll.

Limerick County
FF 25% (1)
FG 46% (1)
LP 22% (1)
SF 5%

LP’s Heffernan takes a seat off FF on SF transfers, with FG just falling short. A funny constituency over the years, it’s likely to give us another surprise this time on these figures.

Longford-Westmeath
FF 20% (1)
FG 32% (1)
LP 36% (2)
SF 10%

LP gain a seat from FF, possibly a vacant one left by Mammy O’Rourke, although Kelly will be nervous either way. FG will be hopeful of reeling Sexton in, but it’s hard to see them getting enough SF transfers to do this, unless the LP vote split is very bad (3.5 to 1 or so), which seems unlikely given the gender and county balance, regardless of her political history. They could go after her as not being very intellectual, but given the local FG candidate is James “Bonkers” Bannon, this may have less traction than they’d like….

Louth
FF 10% (1 incl CC)
FG 33% (2)
LP 16% (1)
SF 30% (1)
GP 3%

Rookie candidate Gerry Adams tops the poll at his first attempt, and Dermot Ahern shows his political nous by jumping first. LP takes a seat through Nash. Oh, and a handy enough 2nd seat for the FG candidate based near Dundalk, regardless of whether s/he is a celeb or not.

Mayo
FF 20% (1)
FG 54% (3)
LP 10%
SF 13% (1)

Adams Avalanche trumping Gilmore Gale. Cowley has his work cut out for him, and more so if Kilcoyle runs as has been rumoured. Calleary will be pleased to see the back of Cooper Flynn on these figures. Oh, and 4th FG seat not on the cards, as there appears to be a fairly likely left / SF seat here.

Meath E
FF 13%
FG 30% (2)
LP 30% (1)
SF 11%

LP take one FF seat, FG the other, more by default than anything else. Don’t be surprised if a high profile Indo emerges here, as the figures suggest there’s a final seat up in the air.

Meath W
FF 18.5%
FG 34% (1)
LP 16.6% (1)
SF 22.% (1)

That Noel Dempsey is a very clever man, isn’t he? FF to lose both seats, one each to LP and SF, LP getting in on FG2 transfers, thereby returning the favour from Meath E.

Roscommon S Leitrim
FF 18.7%
FG 42.5% (2)
LP 13.2%
SF 18.7% (1)
IND 6%

While I see Flanagan transferring well to LP’s Kelly (for geography as much as any other reason) I don’t see him catching SF on these figures, and so his transfers end up electing FG2 and SF ahead of FF. Of course Flanagan’s vote could be higher (although the regional breakdown suggests that Indos are underperforming the national figures in Connaught-Ulster). If he got ahead of either LP or SF, I’d make him favourite to take a seat.

Sligo N Leitrim
FF 20.5% (1)
FG 42.8% (1)
LP 12%
SF 23% (1)

Here, FF muster enough support to take a single seat (I’m presuming they don’t split their vote evenly), with SF taking the other. However, if Bree runs for ULA it could be different.

Tipperary N
FF 15%
FG 20% (1)
LP 17% (1)
SF 10%
OTH 37 % (1)

Lowry romping home again, FG in on his transfers and LP largely in on SF number 2s. Hard to see any joy here for FF

Tipperary S
FF 20%
FG 24% (1)
LP 17% (1)
SF 10%
OTH 29% (1)

Even after Mattie declares his intentions it’ll be hard to predict the outcome here. At the moment I’m moving 5% from the FF column to OTH to adjust for him running as an Indo, and see him getting in on that basis, and also spoiling Seamus Healey’s pitch somewhat. Manseragh’s seat would fall to Prendergast. But almost anything could happen (other than FG lose what looks like a solid enough seat)

Waterford
FF 14%
FG 31.5% (2)
LP 27% (1)
SF 15% (1)

FF lose both seats (including the one awaiting a by-election) – one to Coffey (FG) and the other to SF, should they get their act together, although Halligan could challenge them, particularly as LP will only run one candidate.

Wexford
FF 22% (1)
FG 36% (2)
LP 24% (1)
SF 13% (1)

I’m told that SF have local difficulties, with their previous candidate set to run under the ULA banner, but even entering an adjustment for this I see them best placed to take the last seat on these figures. If they don’t, LP’s Pat Cody appears best placed to take advantage (unless Wexford has gone communist).

Wicklow
FF 10.7%
FG 29.7% (2)
LP 25.8% (1)
SF 13.7% (1)
OTHs 17% (1)

Very close for last few seats, with only FG1, LP1 and Behan safe if they got the FPV of these projections. While it would all be very close, I’d see the last 2 seats going to SF and FG2 in that order, with LP2 just missing out. Too competitive for FF who would be well short of a quota, being assailed from every direction, and so Dick Roche would lose out.

That’s it! Roll on the next RedC!

Budget Blues

The latest MRBI poll has broken in politics.ie with the first figures following the recent Budget. The figures (last MRBI in brackets) are

FF 17% (-7)
FG 30% (+6)
Lab 25% (-8)
SF 15% (+7)
GP 2% (n/c)
Ind 11% (+2)

Satisfaction with party leaders is recorded as follows;
Cowen 14% (-5)
Kenny 23% (-2)
Gilmore 44% (-5)

The previous MRBI was after the FG pairings fiasco, and this one is following a Budget debate where the general consensus is that Noonan performed best of the Finance spokespersons, so no great surprise in the apparent movment from LP to FG, although some may be to SF and OTH (with the launch of ULA).

I’ve run it through the spreadsheet and get the following projections;

FF 25
FG 58
LP 48
SF 23
GP 0
OTH 12 (at least 6 of which would be described as leftwing)

I’ll do something more comprehensive in the next day or so with constituency breakdowns

How they see us….

The excellent UK Polling Report has covered further details of the RedC poll on Irish attitudes to the Euro and Sterling - as pointed out by Neville here Tory MP Mark Reckless (grandson of a former Donegal FF TD) commissioned a question on whether we’d like to ditch the Euro and join Blighty in embracing the pound sterling. Nearly two thirds say NO, which is reported by him as over one third say yes (bless!), but he finds interesting that 43% of the SF vote would support such a move. Given that sample is approximately 108 SF supporters, the margin of error makes this a rather pointless statistic.

Still, interesting all the same. And nice to see us being plugged in the comments section of the UKPR….

December Sun

Well that was quite a poll…

The RedC/Irish Sun poll figures have been confirmed, and they do indeed show a marked swing away from FF, and to a lesser degree LP and FG (both within the margin of error) towards SF and INDs. To recap, with my seat projections from yesterday;

FG 32% (-1) – 62 seats
LP 24% (-3) – 47 seats
SF 16% (+5) – 26 seats
FF 13% (-4) – 14 seats (including CC, but not including Mattie McGrath)
GP 3% (n/c) – 2 seats
OTH 11% (+3) – 15 seats (including MMG)

(NB more details further down the post)

On choice of Taoiseach, there’s continued movement towards Gilmore of 2%, and away from Cowen, with Kenny also getting a small lift;

Gilmore 41%
Kenny 25%
Cowen 8%

This indicates I think that while there’s a large body of opinion out there that want Gilmore to lead the next Govt, a significant wodge of that wouldn’t like them to prop up FG, and want an ‘angrier’ reaction to recent events.

It creates a dilemma for Gilmore, as moving too much to the left will alienate a lot of his recently won support (and make governing afterwards harder, having raised unrealistic expectations). It would also raise the spectre of a Guns and Roses LP/SF coalition, and the media onslaught that would unleash.

But ignoring this drift risks seeing him drop lower in the poll. Currently its margin of error stuff, and the combined effect of the Bearded One’s entrance in Louth and the DSW by-election was always likely to see a surge in SF support this month. But there’s a lot of very angry people out there, and while they may fall back somewhat from this rating, I don’t foresee SF going south of 10% any time soon, if at all, and they may even edge up a point or two after the budget.

Gilmore’s greatest trump is that, despite the personalised onslaught by the Indo group against him and his wife, people want him to be Taoiseach in increasing numbers. His greatest drawback is that his supporters fear he’ll put someone else in that they don’t trust. In the course of an election campaign, a significant number of voters drift to the party of their preferred Taoiseach, and in most elections (bar ’92) LP have not been considered part of that equation, to their detriment. This is an election where Gilmore will have to persuade voters that if they want him to be Taoiseach, they need to vote for his candidates, not just in Dublin Central and Wexford, but in places like Roscommon, Meath West and Cavan. If not, they’re more likely to be electing an opposition instead.

FF and Cowen … well, where to start? 13% will represent for some a “new” core vote, but for me it just supports my contention that there’s no such thing. They could recover, but unless the forthcoming Budget involves some sort of magic money machine, or perhaps a time travel device, I suspect that they aren’t going to make major inroads. They may recover by election time by enough to catch SF, but the only way they’ve even an outside chance to be in Govt is as a very minor partner for FG, should this be deemed “in the national interest” by the great and the good.

FG will be unsure how to read this. FF are collapsing and LP are down, but so are they. The fact that the movement is towards parties to the left of LP will be worrying for them, and they’ll be nervously gauging LP’s intentions. They could go hell for leather and accuse LP as potential SF partners in govt, but that would risk alienating the only potential coalition partners they’ll admit to before the election (although afterwards they may consider FF or SF if the figures added up).

SF will of course be cock-a-hoop at this polling (and I suspect my projections). However, there’s a GE campaign to go, and they’d be advised not to lose the head just yet. A lot of this vote is clearly quite fluid, and if a week is a long time in politics, three months are an eternity. But its going as well for them as they could have hoped for, and these figures would see them well placed to be competing with FF to be the largest opposition party in the Dáil, and possibly looking at them as coalition partners in 2016.

The Greens …. Well they strike me as looking for release into the wild at this stage. On these figures, they would remarkably hold on to 2 seats – one in the form of Sargant, but the other, surprisingly, in the form of John Gormley, who would slip ahead of Chris Andrews and get enough transfers from him to stay ahead of SF.

And OTHs…. Always very hard to work out what’s happening with them, but I suspect that the launch of the United Left Alliance (or “Tanks and Trots”) this week has given a wee fillip for this column, again reflecting anger more than a desire for a new govt, I suspect.

Anyway, the projections…

Carlow-Kilkenny
FF 23% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 19% (1)
SF 13% (1)
GP 7%

FF lose 2 seats and GP 1, with FG, LP and SF all gaining.

Cavan-Monaghan
FF 14% (1)
FG 34% (2)
LP 6%
SF 37% (2)
Ind 6%

Here, an ‘Adams avalanche’ of this scale would outdo a Gilmore Gale, with SF2 taking one FF seat, and FG’s Joe O’Reilly taking the other FF seat. FF’s Brendan Smith hangs on from LP’s Des Cullen, who himself barely squeezes ahead of FG3 on Indo transfers.

Clare
FF 20% (1)
FG 43% (2)
LP 8%
SF 12%
GP 4%
Oth 14% (1)

FF lose a seat, most likely to their gene-pool independent and ex-TD Breen, although SF (and LP if they get a good candidate) would also be in the mix. Dooley, rather than Kileen, would appear more likely to hold on.

Cork E
FF 14.3%
FG 32.8% (1)
LP 36.4% (2)
SF 14.2% (1)
GP 2%

FF lose both seats, to LP2 and SF.

Cork NC
FF 4% (yes, yes, I know…)
FG 32% (2)
LP 25% (1)
SF 17.5% (1)
Oth 20%

SF take a seat from FF, but a fractured left sees FG2 stay ahead of LP2, unless Lynch and Gilroy split their vote reasonably well. FF’s Noel O’Flynn will hope that his protests of independence may save him, and I suspect they’ll pull up his first preferences, but that he’ll still be too far behind for it to make any difference to the final result. Also losing out here would be Billy Kelleher, who would have expected to be a leading member of the FF front bench next time out. SP also lose out, but that’s hard to call as they are in “OTH” and if the swing to them is disproportionately for left-wingers, he could pull it off.

Cork NW
FF 26.5% (1)
FG 48.4% (2)
LP 16.6%
SF 5.7%
GP 2.8%

While there are transfers here for LP, they are too far behind FG2 to reel them in.

Cork SC
FF 10% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 25% (1)
SF 14% (1)
GP 3%

SF’s Chris O’Leary takes a seat, with LP’s Paula Desmond just losing out to FF’s Michail Martin by a handful of votes. Very close though, and could go either way. However, Martin could be leader by the next election, which would make him safe.

Cork SW
FF 18%
FG 41.5% (2)
LP 23% (1)
SF 13%
GP 5%

LP take a seat, and FG2 holds off FF and SF for the 3rd seat.

Donegal NE
FF 23% (1)
FG 27% (1)
LP 11%
SF 31% (1)

Straightforward gain for SF from FF, who hold their single seat with less than a quota. They had 3/3 here when Blaney defected from IFF….

Donegal SW
FF 17%
FG 24% (1)
LP 11%
SF 37% (2)
OTH 10%

On these figures, the combined SF/LP/Pringle vote would hold up to the approx 60% they got in the by-election, and if SF ran a running mate for Doherty, s/he would most likely stay ahead of McBrearty, and with transfers from Pringle and the LP man, take the final seat from FF. Even if SF ran a single candidate, FF would still most likely lose out, with the battle being between McBreaty and Pringle, given most SF transfers would go their way, but at present I’m giving it to SF2.

Dublin C
FF 6% (assuming HE isn’t running…)
FG 14%
LP 32% (2)
SF 18% (1)
GP 3%
OTH 26% (1)

Donoghue makes it a hatrick of ‘surprise’ defeats, with Mary-Lou getting in, and LP’s Aine Clancy beating the FG man by doing better from transfers from Cieran Perry and FF’s Mary FitzPatrick. Perry though is a dark horse, and if you’re offered good odds against him, you should consider them. And if MOS doesn’t run (as has been suggested) he’s very likely to pull it off.

Dub MW
FF 7%
FG 23% (1)
LP 32.4% (2)
SF 19% (1)
GP 7%

FF lose a seat to LP, PDs lose a seat to FG, and GP lose a seat to SF. Not a happy prospect for the Govt, but at least they’d be sharing the pain equally…..

Dub N
FF 9%
FG 21% (1)
LP 27% (1)
SF 10%
GP 11.4% (1)
SP/ULA 13% (1)

FF lose 2 seats, to LP and Clare Daly. SF also in the mix, and I have Sargant holding on, largely on FF transfers. LP would be well placed if they had a well balanced ticket and split the vote well, but at this stage we’re still none the wiser who will be Ryan’s running mate, and so I don’t see them getting their act together in time for the election. Daly is however vulnerable to SF, as a lot of their natural votes may have gone to her in the past, as they were considered no-hopers before, and some of these may return.

Dub NC
FF 10%
FG 31% (1)
LP 24% (1)
SF 13%
GP 3%
OTH 19% (1)

The Haughey dynasty falls, with LP’s Aodhan O’Riordan taking a seat, and Finian McGrath holding on against a SF challenge.

Dub NE
FF 7%
FG 26% (1)
LP 36% (1)
SF 23% (1)
GP 3%

SF nip in and take the last seat from LP2, who have been taking this in most polls. FF not even at the races, FG appear safe for 1 seat.

Dub NW
FF 11%
FG 12%
LP 41% (2)
SF 27% (1)

FF lose both seats, “The Brother” and Minister Carey. LP take one and SF the other. FG not well enough placed to come close.

Dub S
FF 10% (1)
FG 36% (2)
LP 32% (2)
SF 10%
GP 7.5%

FF will run without an outgoing TD, following the death of Seamus Brennan and the confirmed retirement of Tom Kitt. I still see them just about holding on here, as I believe that GP transfers will put them ahead of SF, but that’s based on the assumption of a 2-candidate LP ticket. A White/Culhane/McCarthy ticket would put the cat among the pigeons, mind…. If they split 14/10/8 (not unreasonable) LP3 would be ahead of Ryan, and would be well placed to over take SF on GP transfers. Probably not going to happen, but still….

Dub SC
FF 4% (yes, yes…)
FG 18% (1)
LP 38.4% (3)
SF 18% (1)
GP 3%
ULA 11%

Collapse in FF vote here. I have LP vote splitting 15% Byrne, 13% Hupton and 10.4% Conaghan, with LP3 reeling in ULA’s Joan Collins on FF and GP transfers (FG and SF transfers cancelling out their respective preferences for LP and ULA). Very very close though, and Collins could definitely sneak it, particularly if LP vote is more skewed. FG2 and FF1 are not in the mix.

Dub SE
FF 11%
FG 24% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 10.0%
GP 9.4% (1)

Somewhat controversially (I suspect!) I see Gormely creeping ahead of SF on IND transfers, then getting enough from SF to overtake FF, and then be elected on Chris Andrews transfers. Less controversially, 2 LP and 1 FG.

Dub SW
FF 6%
FG 23% (1)
LP 33.4% (2)
SF 24.8% (1)

No surprise here but LP’s Eamonn Maloney gets elected on SF surplus.

Dub W
FF 11%
FG 18% (1)
LP 40% (2)
SF 11%
SP 20% (1)

If the tide’s out, it’s out. Brian Lenihen, even with an upward adjustment, would lose his seat to veteran trotskyist, Joe “M.E.P.” Higgins. LP pick up the additional seat from the revision, but the identity is unclear. I understood that a convention was likely to select Burton and Nulty, but now hear that only 1 candidate will be selected by convention, with a possible addition by Head Office. Possibly this is to add someone more amenable than Nulty, which suggests that HQ knows the fight for the last seat will be with Lenihen, rather than Higgins.

D/Laoghaire
FF 13%
FG 28% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 7%
GP 4.5%
ULA 13% (1)

Drops a seat, and 3 ministers, with Mary Hanafin, Barry Andews and Ciaran Cuffe all facing marching orders. On these figures, Bacik and Boyd-Barrett should both be ahead of FG2 after SF/GP transfers (and Gilmore’s surplus), and already edging ahead of FF1 (after the elimination of FF2).

Galway E
FF 12%
FG 50% (2)
LP 14% (1)
SF 10%
OTH 13% (1)

FF lose both their seats, one to LP and the other (just about) to FF gene-pool Indo McHugh. FG hold both seats, despite 2 retirements, one presumably going to ex-PD leader Ciaran Cannon. SF in line to poll well, but are likely to fall short, unless McHugh underperforms the swing to OTH (quite possible if this is a swing to left-wing parties).

Galway W
FF 7% (really!)
FG 26% (2)
LP 24% (1)
SF 10%
GP 3%
OTH 31% (2)

Well, hard to see, but if FF are at a third of their ’07 polling, this would appear to be the outcome here… I’d not write them off, but they are very much up against it. They may of course be holding on better here if there’s a different swing in the Gaeltacht (there often is) but if that’s the case and they are still 13% nationally, that means they are lower still elsewhere….

On these figures FF lose both seats, FG2 takes one of them, and the other is won by left-wing Indo Catherine Connolly. New LP candidate Derek Nolan would hold onto Michael D’s seat, and Noel Grealish would hang on. Again, SF not a million miles off, and they could be fighting it out with Connolly for that last seat, but I have her beating them on LP transfers.

Kerry N
FF 12%
FG 34% (1)
LP 16% (1)
SF 35% (1)

FF suffer a relative collapse, although at about their national average, you could argue its a substantial improvement on ’07 ….. The Spring Dynasty returns, although Arthur, one suspects, won’t reach the heights of the Uncle. FG and SF are safe as a safe house.

Kerry S
FF 16%
FG 29% (1)
LP 22% (1)
IND 20% (1)
SF 11%

FF’s JOD loses out to the Gilmore Gale in this instance, with the younger Healy-Rae also taking a seat. LP have yet to select a candidate though, and if SF choose Toireasa Ferris as mooted on p.ie by some posters, the last 2 seats will be keenly contested. FG seat is very safe.

Kildare N
FF 6%
FG 27% (1)
LP 36% (2)
SF 9%
OTH 20% (1)

FF appear set to see a collapse in their vote here. I would caution that the swing might not be as big here, as I’ve a gut feeling that workers in some multinationals around here may be less tempted by the left-wing offerings, but it’s hard to see it stopping LP2 and Murphy (IND) joining Stagg and Durkan (if he runs).

Kildare S
FF 25% (1)
FG 25% (1)
LP 36% (1)
SF 6%
GP 5%

FG gain from FF. In other circumstances the LP/left vote could deliver a 2nd seat, but not with the figures falling in that pattern. No danger in running a LP2 though, despite the reluctance of Jack Wall, who reputedly would rather bequeath the seat, which might be complicated by another Lp cllr getting a run out this time….

Laois-Offaly
FF 33% (2) – and that’s with a leaders bonus added….
FG 37% (2)
LP 10.3%
SF 16.4% (1)

SF gain the 3rd FF seat. Much talk that LP are going to impose former Leinster Leader editor, Laois based John Whelan ahead of several local cllrs (all apparently called O’Brien, for some reason…) provoking a local split, but this projection suggests that without a game-changing move (such as that) they’d lose out to SF on current polling.

Limerick City
FF 12%
FG 33% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 12.3% (1)

On these figures the swing and the revision of the constituency (dropping a seat) would see FF lose 2 seats, one to LP and the other to SF’s Maurice Quinlivan, who has a well documented record of tormenting Willie O’Dea. FG would also most likely lose a seat, probably Kieran O’Donnell who loses a lot of his area in the revision, although a decent FF-to-FG transfer when O’Dea is eliminated might save him at the expense of SF.

Limerick County
FF 21%
FG 49% (2)
LP 22% (1)
SF 5%

Always been an odd one, this. The PD’s took a seat in ’87 (leaving FG with none), FG took 2 seats in ’97 as a result of Indo FFers running, and on this occasion it looks like FF could lose a seat each to FG and LP’s Jim Heffernan. A very modest FF recovery would see them hold one seat however, most likely at LP’s expense.

Longford-Westmeath
FF 17% (1)
FG 34.6% (1)
LP 36.2% (2)
SF 10.5%

FF lose a seat to LP who have high hopes for former PD intellectual Mae Sexton Still, in fairness, her main local competition is “Bonkers” Bannon….. FG2 and SF may be competitive, but appear too far behind, and as long as Sexton stays ahead of one, is likely to get sufficient transfers from the other (and from Penrose, of course)

Louth
FF 6%
FG 34.9% (2)
LP 15.1% (1)
SF 31.8% (1)
GP 4.5%

FF collapse (that Dermot Ahern is very canny, isn’t he…?) SF would probably have too lob-sided a vote to take 2 seats here (I’ve given them a big leaders bonus) and I’d see FG taking a second seat, assuming they persuade MMcG (Mairead, not Martin) to run.

Nash should take a seat for LP, but on these figures I’d be cautious about their consideration (reportedly) of a Dundalk sweeper…)

Mayo
FF 16% (1)
FG 57% (3)
LP 9%
SF 14% (1)

On these figures, the Adams Avalance would push SF ahead of LP’s Jerry Cowley. Either way, one of htem takes a seat from FF, most likely Calleary.

Meath E
FF 9%
FG 33% (2)
LP 29% (1)
SF 11%

FF lose 2 seats, one each to LP and FG. LP would be in the running for a second with SF and Indo transfers, but I’m informed that they’ll not run a second candidate, so it’ll be Hannigan, with his transfers electing FG (unless SF do very well in Indo, FF and LP transfers)

Meath W
FF 14%
FG 37% (1)
LP 16% (1)
SF 25% (1)

FF lose 2 seats (including Noel Dempsey) both to the left, SF on a quota and LP edging ahead of FG2 on FF transfers (FG needing about twice as many of them to keep both their candidates ahead).

Roscommon – S Leitrim
FF 15%
FG 45% (2)
LP 13%
SF 20% (1)
OTH 6%

Well, this would be a turn up for the books …. FF wer already down to 1 seat in this 3-seater, but on this poll, they’d lose that one also. FG would hold the 2 seats, but it would be SF, rather than LP’s John Kelly who would take the seat. Both would be close enough, and Ming Flanagan couldn’t be ruled out, but with 39% between them, it would appear fairly certain that one of the 3 seats should go outside the FF/FG fold. On these figures, Flanagan would be eliminated first, putting Kelly ahead of FF1, but SF would appear most likely to be too far ahead for Kelly to pull him in. It would be a surprise, but Martin Kelly polled comfortably ahead of SF’s national rating last time. However, he was one of the few Leitrim candidates and a fair bit of his vote may come from that, and it may be that the Adams avalanche will not necessarily lift that boat to the same degree, in which case Kelly may catch him.

But one to watch…

Sligo N Leitrim
FF 15%
FG 45% (2)
LP 12%
SF 25% (1)

Similar to Roscommon, although this time FF lose one each to FG and SF. Here SF are on safer ground, as their candidate is Sligo based and so there is no esoteric ‘Leitrim’ basis for the base vote. O’Keefe would appear to be struggling unless she makes significant inroads into the FG vote, which appears to be an uphill battle. Wild card could be Declan Bree, who is rumoured to be considering a comeback under the ULA banner.

Let’s hope there’s no discussions about Stalin at the selection convention…

Tipp Nth
FF 12%
FG 21% (1)
LP 17% (1)
Lowry 32% (1)
SF 11%

FF lose their only seat to LP’s Kelly. Lowry safe as an entire housing estate….

Tipp Sth
FF 14%
FG 26% (1)
LP 17%
IND 32% (2)
SF 11%

Mattie takes an Indo seat that will magically transform itself to FF after the election, and Manseragh lose his seat to Healy. LP falls short, McGrath’s gambit paying off. No real space for SF as the combination of Indo FF, ULA and mainstream LP just doesn’t leave enough left for them (11% is no disgrace though…)

Waterford
FF 10%
FG 34.5% (2)
LP 26% (1)
SF 16% (1)

This is a constituency where Lp have announced that they’ll only be running one candidate, and a SF surge means that they might not be missing out as a result. Although, had they persuaded Gilligan to jump aboard, it would have been much more interesting. SF gain a seat, as do FG at the expense of FF who would have been weakened anyway by Cullen’s retirement.

Wexford
FF 18% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 24% (1)
SF 15% (1)

FF lose a seat, but its to SF rather than LP. This is despite an adjustment for the SF candidate jumping ship and joining ULA.

Wicklow
FF 7%
FG 32% (2)
LP 25% (1)
SF 15% (1)
GP 5%
OTH 17% (1)

FF collapse, Behan holds his FF seat as an Indo, and Roche loses his to SF. LP fall just short of a second seat as a result, but if Behan doesn’t stand (as rumoured) they would take the seat.

Guns and Roses

It’s being reported in p.ie Twitter, and on Matt Cooper’s radio show that a RedC poll for the Sun is reporting a big jump in SF and Indo support, with FF slipping into 4th place.

According to the figures quoted, the parties are as follows;

FF 13%
FG 32%
LP 24%
SF 16%
GP 3%
OTH 11%

The word is that choice of Taoiseach is 42% for Gilmore, and 8% for Cowen.

Now, while it’s still a rumour as I type, it appears to be kosher. I ran this through the spreadsheet and got the following figures;

FG 62
LP 47
SF 26
FF 14
GP 2
OTH 15 (at least 8 of whom would be unambiguously left-wing)

Not got the time to do further analysis of that right now, but will do something later when the figures are confirmed.

Constituency analysis at http://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/12/03/231/

Neighbours

While the blog was set up to look at Irish opinion polls, there’s one reported in the excellent UK Polling Report that is of some interest to Irish readers.

Aside from the general stuff about Labour and Tories being neck and neck, and the LibDems at 9%, this Yougov poll measured support for the UK’s role in the Irish Bailout.

just under half (48%) of respondents opposed Britain bailing out Ireland, with 36% supporting it. There was overwhelming (74%) rejection of Britain bailing out other European countries such as Portugal. Only 22% agreed with the statement that Britain’s economy was reliant upon our exports to other countries and therefore it was in our interests to help the Eurozone avoid a crisis, 60% think Britain has its own problems and cannot afford to help.

Given the reaction of someone cold-polled may be less considered than someone who had had time to look into the issues, that’s a little higher support for assistance to Ireland than I would have expected. It’s also interesting how much less unpopular it is than similar support for Portugal, although it’s unclear as to whether that’s a result of our closely interlinked economies, or a general fondness for the Micks….

Also, of interest to EU watchers, British Euro-scepticism is strong, although not apparently enough to see a threat to their membership

On the broader question of Britain’s relationship with the EU, 10% would like a more integrated Europe, 14% the status quo, 38% a less integrated Europe and 26% Britain’s total withdrawal from the European Union.

Interestingly, only 12% didn’t feel able to express an opinion. Obviously the fair and balanced reporting of the UK media has resulted in them all being very well informed on EU-related matters….

Finally, Royal watchers will be delighted to read a number of questions regarding the forthcoming nuptials of a certain young-ish couple. Among the gems….

YouGov also asked whether Kate Middleson should become Princess of Wales, should William be created Prince of Wales in due course. 74% think she should, 13% she shouldn’t.

The Princess of Hearts being the alternative, I suppose…?

RedC – Nov 2010 projections

Well, as polls in the 2009-2010 era of Irish politics go, that wasn’t too exciting (unless you’re a SF supporter). Every party within the m.o.e. of the previous RedC. How to make this interesting….. Oh, I’ll just have to get the Greens to announce they’re leaving govt…

Sorry for the delay in getting this up – if I was a traffic whore I’d have got it up earlier today, given the amount of people on p.ie, but it wasn’t really feasible, alas.

As established, RedC generally have significantly higher ratings for FG and FF than all the other companies (and to a lesser extent SF and GP) and lower ratings for LP and OTH. So a poll that shows FF at a new low, and LP at their joint highest rating ever (and SF at their highest since March 2009) might sound good news for the Govt. However, the poll was largely conducted before the IMF’s role became apparent, and before Pat Rabbitte became a Youtube star

The most obvious movement is for SF. There are a few factors which can be accredited to this net 2% movement.

1. The announcement that Gerry Adams will context Louth in the GE. Locally, there are probably pros and cons to this decision – there’ll be ppl voting for him that didn’t vote for Morgan, but there are others who would object to someone coming in from outside the constituency (particularly someone with a lesser grasp of economic policy…). However, for all his shortcomings, Adams is their leader, and if he can perform better than he did in ’07 (and I suspect he can) he can come across as more relevant, and a bigger hitter than the worthy but dull O’Caolain.

2.Pearse Doherty has performed very well as a candidate in the DSW bye-election. They have been fortunate that the issue of it’s delay has arisen in a constituency where they have such a good candidate, and the national exposure of Doherty has, I have no doubt, resulted in a fair portion of the floating LP-to-SF vote (which is substantial) thinking more positively of SF than Frank McBreaty’s party.

3.SF are talking about dealing with the deficit over a much longer period than LP, and Gilmore distanced himself from SF’s economic policies in his Late Late Show interview. This may have been prudent from his p.o.v. for fear of votes drifting to FF/FG, but it presumably saw some movement from LP to SF.

As I said yesterday, the spreadsheet threw out the following projections (movement from last month’s RedC in brackets);

FG 61 (no change)
LP 55 (-2)
FF 26 (-1)
SF 14 (+7)
GP 1 (-2)
OTH 9 (-2)

Obviously, only FG/LP (116 seats, majority of c.66) or FG/FF (87 seats, majority of c.8) would be possible govts from these outcome. My money would be on FG/LP, with FG getting Taoiseach and 8 Ministers, but LP getting Finance and Foreign Affairs, and pretty much 50% of the Programme for Govt). Or rather, the IMF getting 90%, and FG and LP getting 5% apiece…

So, what would a uniform swing produce in each constituency? Well, the spreadsheet suggests….

Carlow-Kilkenny
FF 27% (2)
FG 37% (2)
LP 21% (1)
SF 8%
GP 7%
Two safe FG seats, one safe each for FF and LP, and the last seat between FF2 and LP2 (plus very long shot chance for FG3 if they did better on GP/SF transfers). While LP would do well from SF transfers and some GP voters, and FG3 should then assist LP2, I assume that enough GP votes go to the Govt partners to stop LP pulling off that second seat.

Cavan-Monaghan
FF 18% (1)
FG 36.5% (2)
LP 8%
SF 29% (2)
GP 2.5%
Connolly (IND) 5%

Those who’ve followed the IPR projections will know that this constituency is shaping up for a fight between LP and SF’s Cavan candidate for the last seat. The previous time I gave it to LP, but this time I have SF2 very (very) narrowly edging LP’s Des Cullen for the last seat on foot of SF’s 2% surge in the latest poll. As with the previous poll, this could go either way.

Clare
FF 24% (1)
FG 43% (2)
LP 9.4%
Breen (Ind) 10.6% (1)
GP 4%

FF drop a seat, probably to FF gene-pool Indo and former TD Breen, although again LP are very close, but I have SF transfers splitting evenly enough between the two of them, which would be enough to keep Breen ahead, and probably be elected on LP transfers. All to play for though, and a good LP candidate could be a game-changer.

Cork E
FF 17.5% (1)
FG 32.5% (1)
LP 38% (2)
SF 9%
GP 2%
No surprise here, LP have been looking at taking the second FF seat here in most polls for the last year.

Cork NC
FF 7% (yes, yes, I know…)
FG 34% (2)
LP 29% (1)
SF 12% (1)
SP 6.4%
Slight surprise, perhaps, compared to previous projections as a result of the SF surge, LP fall somewhat short of the last seat to SF. This assumes SF do better on Mick Barry’s transfers (as Lynch would already be elected), although if Gilroy is ahead (or the vote is split evenly) Lynch might just pull in enough SP transfers to take a 2nd seat

Cork NW
FF 31% (1)
FG 46.7% (2)
LP 17.4%
GP 3%
SF 2%

Not far off the recent FF poll , which had FG “less than 50%”, although that poll had LP above, rather than below, 20%. Again, even on these figures LP aren’t out of it, depending on FF surplus and GP/SF transfers, but FG2 just shading it.

Cork SC
FF 14.6% (1)
FG 38.5% (2)
LP 27.7% (2)
SF 9%
GP 6%
Largely similar to a FG poll although FF about 7% lower, but holding onto the seat they’d get either way. I’d not write off Chris O’Leary though on these figures, particularly if he can get decent transfer from his former colleague “Twitter” O’Boyle.

Cork SW
FF 22% (1)
FG 41% (1)
LP 24% (1)
SF 8%
GP 5%
Safe FG1, safe-ish LP seat, and FF holding on against FG for the last seat.

Donegal NE
FF 28% (1)
FG 28% (1)
SF 23.5% (1)
LP 13%

SF take a seat from the retiring FF TD Jim McDaid. Another Senator J.Harte for the LP?

Donegal SW
FF 21.6%
FG 27.5% (1)
SF 31.7% (1)
LP 18.7% (1)

While FF do somewhat better than the GE polling here last week they still lose out to McBrearty for the last seat as in that poll, on SF and FG transfers. Strange times, although I’d not write off Mary Coughlan just yet.

Dublin C
FF 10%
FG 13%
LP 37% (2)
SF 15% (1)
OTH 22% (1)

Hard one to call, as Indo/Oth is always hard to translate into local constituencies. In this case, I’d call it as 2 LP reasonably confidently, then O’Sullivan and Mary-Lou edging ahead of Donghue on Indo transfers, although it would be very close, and I’d not write off Cieran Perry. FF pretty much out of it. Unless HE runs, of course….

Dublin MW
As I’ve commented previously, FG get very upset when I suggest they’re unlikely to go from zero seats to two here…..
FF 8%
FG 24% (1)
LP 38% (2)
SF 13.5% (1)
GP 7.4%

SF’s Eoin O’Broin, along with LP’s Robert Dowds, look good to take a seat here, from the GP and and Mary Harney, with FG’s Keating taking a seat from FF’s Chief whip John Curran. What odds on Frances FitzGerald to be the final ever Seanad leader?

Dublin N
FF 13%
FG 22% (1)
LP 31% (2)
GP 11.5% (1)
SP 10.6%
SF 6%

FF to lose 2 seats here, each to LP, who have an ample supply of councillors in Fingal. Sargant, on these figures, manages to hold on, staying ahead of FF1 on FF2 leakage, and then depending on FF transfers to stay ahead of SP’s Clare Daly. Very very close though, so I’d not be putting the house on anyone on the basis of this…. The Metro North issue in particular could see FF being more resilient to the Gilmore Gale in Swords

Dub NC
FF 13%
FG 33% (1)
LP 28% (1)
McGrath (IND) 15.5% (1)
SF 8%

LP take Sean Haughey’s seat, and Finian McGrath holds on from FF. Assumes that SF transfers favour him over FG2, although he’d also do better in FF transfers, so he’d be comfortable on these figures.

Dub NE
FF 10%
FG 27% (1)
LP 41% (2)
SF 17%

Tight context for the last seat (currently held by retiring FF TD Michael Woods) between LP2 and SF. While LP2 has yet to be decided, it’s most likely Killian Forde, and on these figures the former SF man is likely to take a seat against his former party colleague Larry O’Toole.

Dub NW
FF 14.5%
FG 13.4%
LP 46.3% (2)
SF 20% (1)

While there may be a degree of sympathy for Pat Carey after his recent savaging at the hands of Pat Rabbitte, it’s hard to see FF (or FG, for that matter) take a seat on these figures, unless the FF vote is more resilient in Dublin. Indeed, if LP run 3 candidates, LP 3 is likely to be ahead of the FG candidate, and when Mad Bill Tormey’s transfers are distributed, to be ahead of FF1. On these figures, they’d still probably lose the last seat to SF on FF transfers, but given this is a good poll for SF and FG and still the 2nd LP seat is safe, the argument against a 3rd LP candidate is becoming weaker….

Dublin Sth
FF 13% (1)
FG 36% (2)
LP 35% (2)
GP 7.4%
SF 5.8%

Fairly clear-cut, with 2 LP gains, 1 from FF (who have lost the late Seamus Brennan and are reportedly losing the ‘great’ Tom Kitt) and the other from Minister Eamon Ryan. FG hold onto their two seats, but don’t appear at the races for a third, whereas FF would be in the unusual position (this time) of having a new TD, unless they receive a refugee from Dun Laoghaire, which has ceded some of its territory, and where FF will go from 2 Ministers to 1 TD (it they’re lucky).

LP are safe enough on these figures, and may consider a 3 candidate strategy, given RedC isn’t their most generous polling company, and a third candidate could sweep up enough votes to keep LP3 ahead of Ryan after SF transfers, and challenge FF if the IMF business hits them badly. Either way, there’ll be LP Seanad leader Alex White (based in Rathfarnham), and one or two from Aidan Culhane (Dundrum), and Lettie McCarthy (Glencullen), both of whom led strong LP performances in last year’s LEs in their respective wards, and could be expected to poll strongly.

Dublin SC
FF 7%
FG 19% (1)
LP 39% (3)
SF 13% (1)
ULA/PBP 10%

FF collapse here (again, provided the swing in Dublin isn’t below average), FG steady, and LP who lost out on a 2nd seat here by 69 votes in ’07 (when 10% nationally) would get 3 seats, shading the last seat from Joan Collins, one of the original batch of “Militant Tendency” members expelled from LP, subsequently ‘eased out’ of that organisation, then Indo, then a member of the SWP-front “People Before Profit”, and a likely United Left Alliance candidate this time. Mind you, with a likely ticket of Eric Byrne, Michael Conaghan and Henry Upton, there will be fears that the lack of gender balance could see the scales tip towards Collins.

Dublin SE
FF 13% (1)
FG 24% (1)
LP 39% (2)
GP 9%
SF 6%

Not a million miles from the recent FG poll here. FF are 5% lower, but other than that, FG are 1% higher, LP 2% lower and GP 1% lower. 2 LP and 1 FG seem pretty certain at this stage, and the last seat is FF vs GP, with FF clear favourite at this stage, although the fallout of the IMF/GP pull out may make this harder to call than suggested by this poll. Only threat to LP is the poor vote split recorded in the FG poll, but on these figures Humphies would still be safe. If they drifted down to about 20% or so nationally, though, they’d need to split is more evenly.

Dublin SW
FF 9%
FG 25% (1)
LP 39% (2)
SF 19% (1)

FF lose both seats, probably with Charlie “Tallaman” O’Connor having the good sense to retire before polling, and the Lesser Minister Lenihen being given a lesson in natural selection. LP’s Eamonn Maloney and SF’s Sean Crowe appear safe bets to gain here. FG2 (if there is such a creature) will probably do no more than provide LP with any transfers required to get over the line.

Dublin W
FF 13.5%
FG 18.7% (1)
LP 43.8% (2)
ULA 16.4% (1)

The spreadsheet gives FF a boost her for the personal/sympathy factor, but on these figures, not be enough for the Minister for Finance to hold on, and it would appear unlikely that his stock has risen since the poll was taken. It’s still very close though, but I have LP2 taking the additional seat, and ULA/SP MEP Joe Higgins relieving FF of their only seat.

Needless to say, this would possibly be the story of the count.

Dun Laoghaire
FF 15% (1)
FG 28% (1)
LP 38% (2)
ULA 9%
SF 4%

This constituency loses a seat, as each of the Govt parties do, the second going to LP2, who appear too strong for ULA/PBP hopeful Richie Boyd-Barrett. Hard to call which FF Minister will hold on, but if she’s leader by then (as some are suggesting) one presumes it’d be Mary Hanafin. If not, my money would be on Andrews.

Galway E
FF 13%
FG 54% (3)
LP 18% (1)
SF 6%
IND 5%

FF look very low here, but they were below their national vote here last time also, and this time face a well balanced FG ticket and a rampant LP, whose leader hails from here. FF’s prospects would be enhanced if one of their (60 and 57 year old) TDs retire. I’d certainly not write them off, but they’ve a hell of a fight to hold onto a seat here, particularly if both outgoing TDs run.

Galway W
FF 12% (1)
FG 28% (2)
LP 24% (1)
SF 6%
GP 3%
Grealish 11% (1)

I’ve rebalanced the vote here a bit to take account for Micheal D not running on the LP ticket, and it’s the difference between one and two seats for them, which are now unlikely unless they woo back Indo Cllr Connolly. FF lose one of their seats (presumably Fahey) to FG.

Kerry N
FF 14%
FG 36% (1)
LP 18% (1)
SF 29% (1)

Already poor territory for FF, they are assailed on three fronts here, with FG already strong on the ground, LP with the “Spring” brand to catch their share of the Gilmore Gale, and SF boosted by recent events nationally. Hard to see FF holding on, but one never knows….

Kerry S
FF 20.4% (1)
FG 30% (1)
LP 24% (1)
Cap-wearer’s association 17.9%

A tight one, but I have “The Bull” O’Donoghue holding on here against the younger Healy-Rae, thereby showin’ that crowd in Dublin what they think of them…..

Kildare N
FF 10%
FG 27% (1)
LP 39% (2)
Murphy 13% (1)

FF collapse, not even at the races, losing seats to LP and former By-election victor Catherine Murphy. By the following election and eventual retirement of Emmet Stagg, I’d not be surprised to see her on the LP ticket in 2015.

Kildare S
FF 30% (1)
FG 24% (1)
LP 37% (1)

FG gain a (single) seat from FF, who hold up better here than most places. Even with the IMF coming in, it would appear that FF1 is safe enough. LP are short for a second seat, but have a quota and a half, and so would be well advised to run a sweeper.

Laois Offaly
FF 39% (2)
FG 37% (2)
LP 11.4% (1)
SF 10.3%

Even with the addition of a leaders bonus, FF drop one of their 3 seats here, which is keenly fought for by LP and SF. On these figures, LP should shade it, particularly with FG transfers a-going, but close enough. If Lp run 2 candidates, as mooted, apparently, I’d say SF could nudge ahead on these figures, unless they were really increasing the vote, and I’m not sure they’ve anyone available who’d bring such a big personal vote (and if they they, presumably s/he could get elected without using a sweeper….)

Limerick City
FF 17% (1)
FG 33% (1)
LP 37% (2)
SF 8%

FF lose (Peter) Power, with Willie O’Dea holding the sole FF seat (that’s if he can be bothered running). LP are the beneficiaries, with FG losing O’Donnell to the constituency revision. It wouldn’t take much of a swing for FG2 to edge ahead of FF though, particularly if O’Dea decided that he couldn’t be bothered…

Limerick County
FF 25.3% (1)
FG 47.8% (1)
LP 23.0% (1)
SF 2%
GP 1.8%

Very very close, but on these figures I’d say LP’s James Heffernan (who performed very impressively in the LEs , getting more votes in Kilmallock than in all of Limerick West in ’07) shades it, needing slightly fewer transfer, but FG will be fighting hard to pull in that gain. FF are also barely over the quota, and could lose another seat if their voters are unimpressed with the IMF moving in. One to watch.

Longford-Westmeath
FF 20.5% (1)
FG 33.9% (1)
LP 37.5% (2)
SF 6%

LP to gain from FF, with FG2 too far behind to make it up (unless they do very well on SF transfers). Perhaps from O’Rourke who it is said will be hanging up her boots.

Louth
FF 12% (0 + Ceann Comhairle)
FG 38% (2)
LP 19% (1)
SF 22% (1)
GP 5%

Big shock here if this came to pass. Dermot “Fiction” Ahern would lose out, with FG and LP gaining. SF would increase their vote substantially, despite fielding a blow-in rookie candidate who has never sat in a real parliament…. .

I’d not write him off, but Ahern is in trouble. There’s not going to be more than 2 seats in the North of the county, and Adams and FG2 appear to be shading it on these figures. A way to go yet, and Ahern is a noted political street-fighter …. don’t be surprised in facts that might be in the possession of, say, the Minister for Justice, might be released to the intended detriment of the President of SF.

Mayo
FF 20% (1)
FG 57% (3)
LP 10.6% (1)
SF 9.0%

FF won a single seat here last time out, and while the return of the “Class Act” BCF saw them double their representation, the tide is out and they’re msot likely back at one TD. FG would hold their 3rd TD, and LP’s former Indo TD Jerry Cowley would be set to hold off a strong challenge from SF. I’d keep an eye out for former LP member Micahel Kilcoyle, who may be the dark horse here.

Meath E
FF 13%
FG 33% (2)
LP 32% (1)
SF 7%

FF to lose both seats, one each to LP and FG2. If LP were together enough to have 2 candidates they’d be competitive for a second seat, but word is that they won’t,. It would however be almost impossible for LP to fail to take a seat with this level of vote, no matter how many candidates they run.

Meath W
FF 19.4%
FG 38.8% (1)
LP 18.8% (1)
SF 17.8% (1)

Very tight, but on these figures FF would lose both seats, one to LP and one to SF. Given Noel Dempsey is one of these, that would be a major shock. FG2 would also be competitive, particularly if this poll is a blip for SF and they can nip ahead of them. Given this could see 5 candidates all around the 18-20% range fighting for 3 seats, it may be re-count territory….

Roscommon – S Leitrim
FF 19.2%
FG 45.6% (2)
LP 14.4% (1)
SF 14.2%
IND 5.4%

FF go to zero seats here, with FG taking 2, and LP staying ahead of SF on Indo transfers (Ming Flanagan fishing from the same electoral pool as LP’s former Indo, Cllr John Kelly) and then getting enough of a boost from SF to reel in FF. Very close though, although on these figures, with the IMF bailout, it’s SF rather than FF that would appear to be LP’s main threat.

Sligo- N Leitrim
FF 20.9% (1)
FG 45.8% (2)
LP 13.1%
SF 17.8%

Despite a left/republican vote of over 30%, these figures see SF pull ahead of LP, and then fail to get sufficient transfers to pull in FF who are just too far ahead. LP, fwiw, would probably succeed if they took 3% from SF, but on these figures they’re just not going to pull it off. Dark horse may be veteran ex-LP Marxist Declan Bree, who is reportedly going to run for the ULA.

Tipperary N
FF 16%
FG 22% (1)
LP 19% (1)
Lowry (35%)

Yeah, I know…. less I say about this the better……

Tipperary Sth
FF 26% (1)
FG 27% (1)
LP 18.5%
Healy (IND) 17% (1)
SF 6.5%

FF hold a seat out of 2, probably Mattie, although if the IMF factor makes a difference they might not. LP losing last seat on these figures, on SF transfers to Seamus Healey, although I suspect that’ll depend how much indos get squeezed on the day….

Waterford
FF 15% (1)
FG 35% (2)
LP 29% (1)
SF 11%

FF lose the seat that went with Martin Cullen to FG, who fends off competition from LP2 and SF. The sole FF seat would be in jeopardy if their vote dropped further. LP would be competitive if they managed to recruit local Indo Gilligan, but all the signs are that they’re not going to get that together….

Wexford
FF 22% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 26% (1)
SF 12% (1)

FF lose a seat, although on these figures it’s to SF, rather than LP2 who they pip at the post. Very close though, and if LP could split their vote reasonably evenly (I’m assuming they won’t) they’d probably pull it off.

Wicklow
FF 11%
FG 34% (2)
LP 28% (2)
Behan (Ind) 10% (1)
SF 9%
GP 5%

LP take a seat from Dick Roche, and Behan holds the seat he won under the FF banner last time out. Should Behan no run, the 5th seat is wide open, but probably FF the likeliest to take it.

Well, that’s that. As the election approaches I’ll be refining the local adjustments further to incorporate any credible local polls, and also a weighted average of regional breakdowns of the national polls, and so the next projection you see will be further fine-tuned. Early experimentation shows no overall change in terms of national seat projections, but slightly more resilience in the FF-Dublin vote (with less outside Dublin) and a very slightly bigger increase in LP outside Dublin, with less of an increase in the capital. Net effect as I say is very small and well within the margin of error of the polls (c. 3 seats falling the other way), but worth doing.

Thanks for reading!

RedC Shock Poll – Hardly anything changes!

Spotty over on politics.ie has released the latest RedC offerings in tomorrow’s SBP. They are surprising, in that there’s no movement for anyone outside the margin of error.

The figures are;

FF 17% (-1)
FG 33% (+1)
LP 27% (nc)
SF 11% (+2)
GP 3% (-1)
OTH 8% (-2)

I’ve run these through the spreadsheet, and it produces the following figures (movement from last month’s RedC in brackets);

FG 61 (no change)
LP 55 (-2)
FF 26 (-1)
SF 14 (+7)
GP 1 (-2)
OTH 9 (-2)

RedC as you know tend to be good for FG, and they’d remain ahead on these figures, so they’ll be somewhat happy, although I’d have thought that both they and LP would have expected to make good gains this week as the shadow of the IMF loomed (although the actual landing occurred after the sampling on Monday and Tuesday this week). The biggest gain is clearly SF, who on these figures would pass the threshold in a number of constituencies, and would be in ‘proper party’ territory (in both sense of the word). Presumably this is a positive reaction to the announcement that their leader will contest the next GE.

I’ll do a more in depth analysis after the figures are confirmed, probably tomorrow when I’ve had a good look at the other findings.

Donegal SW – General Notes….

As mentioned in the previous entry, politics.ie had a scoop yesterday, releasing the RedC/Paddy Power poll in Donegal SW some hours before any mainstream media outlet. Aside from the By-election polling, the poll gave the voting intentions for a GE, which amounted to 31% SF, 25% FG, 19% FF, 18% LP and 7% OTH. This would almost certainly produce 1 seat each for SF, LP and FG, with Mary Coughlan losing out.

I was curious as to how this compared with the spreadsheet’s projections.

The most recent spreadsheet projection for RedC was posted on 26 October here

The results were as follows;
FF 29% (10% higher than now)
FG 26% (1% higher than now)
SF 26% (5% lower than now)
LP 15% (3% lower than now)

Obviously, aside from national swings, there is also the effect that having an actual election has on the electorate (and of course, any shortcomings in the spreadsheet). These would suggest that the local campaigning, the recent bank/bailout controversy, and possibly the Gerry Adams announcement hit FF badly to the benefit of Doherty and McBrearty. Either that or the spreadsheet is overstating FF, and understating LP and SF, which would confuse some posters on p.ie who are arguing that it’s biased in the opposite direction…..

There’s word of a (national) RedC poll being published at the weekend, it will be interesting to see if a similar trend manifests in that. if it does, I’d expect FF in the low-to-mid teens, LP pushing 30% and SF in early double figures. If not, these figures are probably largely a result of the by-election/goldfish bowl effect.

Northern Express

Dave over on politics.ie has revealed in a scoop the details of a RedC poll for Paddy Power, showing Pearse Doherty of SF basically running away with it.

The poll, taken over the weekend, showed the following state of the candidates (percentage 2nd prefs in brackets);

Doherty (SF) 40% (19%)
O’Domhnaill (FF) 19% (10%)
O’Neill (FG) 16% (14%)
McBreaty (LP) 15% (20%)
Pringle (Ind) 8% (9%)
Sweeney(Ind) 2% (7%)

According to Dave, the m.o.e. is 4.4%, which puts FF/FG/LP all bunched together, and RedC are reporting that McBrearty ends up ahead of O’Neill, which will disappoint FG, given O’Neill and Pringle occupy the same neck of the woods. Assuming that McBreaty gets a good transfer from the FG candidate, this would to appear to make him likely to pull in FF and make it to the last count, but he’s so far behind, it’s hard to see him pull in Doherty, who is now red hot favourite to win the seat.

SF will be delighted with this. While they knew Doherty was doing well, the court case in particular giving him the perfect momentum, 40% suggests that his media performances have also gone down well. Certainly he’s polling well outside his republican comfort zone, and is no doubt also benefiting from a bandwagon effect. Of particular comfort to him will be that he has the second highest level of transfers, which suggests that he’ll not be stuck at that 40% as the counts progress. While a large chunk of that 19% may be in the 15% of LP voters, and McBreaty may end up being the only other candidate not eliminated, there’s presumably enough in the other piles (including Pringle’s) to see him over the line. At this stage, he only has to make sure that he doesn’t do anything wrong.

FF will be sick to see how far they’ve dropped. They didn’t really think they could win this election, but they were talking up their chances in media briefings in the hope they could rally the troops sufficiently to get a decent result. This falls well short of that territory, and while they’ll do better in a GE, this suggests that they’ll need their act together to even hold one seat, whenever that happens.

LP should be very pleased. Most commentary has suggested that the campaign has gone badly for them, so if they are ending up ahead of FG on transfers, and competitive with FF for second place, it’s an extraordinary poll for a man who has had more than his share of adversity in the past. They got 3% here in ’07, and about 8% in ’09 in the LEs, so this would suggest that the sort of swings being projected by the spreadsheet in rural Ireland are pretty close to the mark (sorry, Tommy!), and it’s notable that he has the highest percentage of second preferences. He’ll be hoping that he can get some momentum from this, and can gain enough to catch SF. It looks a long shot to me, but given the nature of his vote, I’d say FG would transfer to him in higher numbers than the other way around, and also I suspect that FF voters in Donegal would be less antagonistic to LP than FG, so McBrearty appears to be the only candidate with even an outside chance of catching Doherty. Mind you, one presumes that the margin he overtakes O’Neill by is within the margin of error, so he’s not certain of that by any means, and the impact of this poll will be interesting. I still can’t see him catching Doherty without something game-changing happening, though, and there’s still every chance he could fail to catch O’Neill and O’Domhnaill.

This result would be a disaster for FG, if they end up eliminated before LP (and not much better if they only scraped ahead). How Kenny would spin it, I’m not sure. Certainly by-elections can be funny things, but to be down, and fall so far behind SF, to still be behind FF, and finally to be probably caught by LP, in Donegal of all places, well that’s not good. Their choice of candidate, who hasn’t come across as especially strong could be part of the problem, and suspicions persist that McGinlay doesn’t want to leave the stage just yet. But if this is how it pans out, there’ll be rumblings….

General Election
Also in the figures supplied by Dave are the voting intentions in a GE. These are almost as stunning (in fact, more so, IMO). The pollster makes the important point that the By-election candidates may have a higher profile than sitting TDs at present, and this is particularly important in the context of the FF and FG vote being split so evenly. However, it comes in at

Doherty (SF) 31%
McBreaty (LP) 18%
McGinley (FG) 13%
O’Neill (FG) 12%
Coughlan (FF) 10%
O’Domhnaill (FF) 9%
Pringle (IND) 6%
Sweeney (IND) 1%

That’s almost certainly Doherty elected, with McBrearty, and McGinley both beating Coughlan to the last two seats. NO FF seat in one of their safest constituencies. That’s possibly FF lower than I expect, and I can see a recovery of sorts in a GE. But it’s a bad place to be starting from.

Taoiseach
Also in the poll is a measure of choice of Taoiseach, which is also interesting. Nearly half (46%) prefer Eamon Gilmore, with Kenny (18%), and Cowen (13%) showing very strong support for the Labour leader in a very rural constituency. No doubt FG posters will say that this is all pointless, as he won’t have the candidates to be elected, but the figures from the main poll suggest otherwise. Certainly it would appear reasonable to believe that in a General Election, the campaigning by party leaders would assume greater prominence than in a by-election, and a bit of Gilmore’s star-dust would rub off on the various Frank McBreatys around the country.

All in all? A great poll for SF, a very good one for LP, a pretty bad one for FG, and a lousy one for FF.

I know a few people who’ll raise a glass to that…..

C and Sun

A RedC poll tomorrow in the Sun (yes, yes, I know….) shows a drop in support in for Taoiseach Brian Cowen.

According to the poll, just 11% of the population would support him for Taoiseach, down from 17% in the same poll 3 months ago, and 18% in an MRBI poll 4 months ago. This is the same level as he got in the aftermath of the “Drink-In” controversy.

Other figures in breakingnews.ie’s article include Eamon Gilmore up 6% to a gravity defying 39%, while Enda Kenny fell from 27% to 23%. Given the concerted campaign against Gilmore in the Indo last week, the strong performance (IMO) by Michael Noonan over the last few weeks, and given the poll was taken before Kenny’s weekend performance ‘explaining’ their new policy on PS numbers, this is very good news for Gilmore, and not great for either of his rivals. It would, if anything, suggest that there’s been a reaction against the Indo’s campaign over his wife selling the land that her mother left her on her death.

No party figures (none in the previous Sun/RedC effort either), but a few other bits and pieces, including the somewhat poignant statistic that 8%, have endured the break-up of their marriage or relationship as a result of the crisis.

Behind the billions of euros being talked about, we sometimes forget there are people whose lives are turned upside down by all this.

FG poll in DSE

You probably know already if you’re a p.ie regular, but Dave has got his hands on the figures of a FG poll in Dublin SE, and the figures look pretty credible.

Chris Andrews Fianna Fail 18%
Lucinda Creighton Fine Gael 19%
John Gormley Green 8%
Kevin Humphreys Labour 10%
Eoghan Murphy Fine Gael 4%
Ruairi Quinn Labour 31%

Aside from the fact that he got hard figures from his (2 different) sources (respect!), they also very much tally with what the spreadsheet is suggesting here – the following figures are (a) the FG poll party totals, and (b) the average of the latest RedC and MRBI polls, projected by the spreadsheet to DSE;

FF 18% (16% – FG poll gives 2% higher)
FG 23% (20%- FG poll gives 3% higher)
LP 41% (43%- FG poll gives 2% lower)
GP 8% (9%- FG poll gives 1% lower)

That’s all the main players within the margin of error, and there’s no real conclusions to draw, other than LP are on course to win 2 seats, FG are certain of one (but only one), FF should hold one, and Gormley looks set to lose out, beating FG2 but losing the final seat to LP’s Kevin Humphries. Personally, I’d be lying if I pretended that I wasn’t gratified that it comes so close to the spreadsheet predictions, which along with FG and FF polls in Cork SC and Cork NW suggests that the formulae are working pretty well.

Of course, a lot can happen between now and polling day, but it would have to be a lot to upset this state of affairs.

Implications? Well, FF probably should be careful not to think about a running mate for Andrews – clearly if the FF vote is split, there could be significant leakage from FF2 to Gormley (who is a Govt Minister, after all) and see him pull off a Houdini act.

FG are safe enough with their two candidate strategy, given the weakness of Murphy in this poll, and so the only drawback of the two-candidate strategy would appear to be the disappointment on the day. They may consider running a high-profile outsider instead, but they are a full 18% behind LP here, and so their chances of catching them are so slight it would appear to be a waste of a good parachute (never a good idea).

LP, well they’ll feel that they’ve got it right. Over 2 quotas, but only barely, so 2 candidates are perfect. They should probably concentrate on splitting it better though (3/1 surprised me somewhat), as if they don’t and the LP vote declines over the course of the campaign, Gormley could slip in ahead of Humphries. On these figures, it would probably be wise to increase Humphries areas to make sure he doesn’t fall too far behind if there’s a swing against LP between now and polling day.

All assuming Mannix doesn’t run, of course….

Labour Poll in Dublin SE

A very good source has let slip (in a vague manner) the outcomes of an internal LP poll in Dublin SE to me (I won’t go into the reasons that he shouldn’t as it would identify both of us). It’s good news for LP (if accurate) even with vague figures. Quinn is coming in at 30%, Humphries is second “just under a quota”, Creighton is safe for the third seat, not too far off the quota, and Andrews is taking the last seat.

Murphy (FG2) polls OK, but not in contention, but doing much better than Gormley, who apparently is in the margin of error. The Gormley vote being so low surprises me, I have to say, although it does support what I’m constantly being told by people who live there. Currently, I give him the benefit of a “leader’s bonus” in the spreadsheet, but if there’s (more reliable) corroboration of his decline, I think I’ll remove this tweak. Certainly this would have to be a total rogue (lovable or not) for him not to be in serious trouble. The difference in his vote appears to largely inflate the LP pile, which of course makes it slightly suspicious, given it’s a LP poll. Although it is noticeable that all the constituency polls leaked by FF and FG also put LP at levels higher than RedC would give them.

Needless to say, if anyone has more specific figures, please share!

Who fears to speak of ’92?

As p.ie regulars will be aware, the constituency projections I posted here last week caused a somewhat hysterical reaction from some FG quarters, in particular from one Leinster House staffer whose diatribe included, inter alia, the particularly mad suggestion that LP would be hit by the “Bradley Effect”, whereby people don’t reveal they are voting against the black candidate!

Unfortunately I was away with the kids for the mid-term break in a house with no broadband and a painfully slow PC, and so I didn’t get to answer all the points made, but hopefully I’ll get the chance now.

Most of the rantings didn’t actually address the figures, maths or arguments, but claimed that even if LP are well up in the polls, this won’t/can’t translate on the day, that local factors (which are in fact, taken into account!) would uniformly count against a Labour Party unused to such dizzy heights, particularly the “rural” areas.

Well, I thought, this all seems very familiar. Very 1992. Then the LP were rising in the polls, but media commentators (and Fine Gael) said that they would be incapable of turning those polling figures into seats. Sure, they’d gain a seat here and there, it would be a good election for them, but they’d be doing very well to break 20, and high twenties was just delusional thinking.

Let’s have a look back and see what happened.

The three main polling companies at the time were MRBI/TNS who conducted surveys for the Irish Times, IMS/Millward Browne who gathered the figures for the Indo group, and Lansdowne who surveyed for the now defunct Irish Press group.

MRBI had a number of polls in the pre-Summer period, which showed LP varying between 9-11%, pretty much their rating in the previous election, and a September poll similarly showed them at 10%. However, it picked up the surge in support for LP over the course of the GE campaign (polling day was 25 November). A poll conducted over the period 9-11 November showed LP at 14%, and their last poll, conducted over the period 17-18 November showed LP at 19%. This is the best pre-election poll I could find for LP.

IMS/Millward Brown similarly showed LP at 8-11% in the April-July period, but in their poll conducted during the GE campaign in November, they detected a LP rise to 16%.

Lansdowne, who have since merged with Millward Brown, had two polls that I’ve been able to track down, one held in May/June where LP were at 9%, and the other held in November, which showed them risen to 15%.

So across all polling companies, there was remarkable unanimity regarding how LP were doing. 8-11% before the election, and rising to 15-19% during it, depending on the company you chose to believe.

Taking these figures, and using the same logic that Tommy O’Brien came out with in p.ie, LP should have been lucky to get about 13%. Local factors, local candidates, lack of LP organisation in places they couldn’t even field a candidate the last time out, the “Shy Tory Syndrome”, the “Bradley Effect” (in Clare at least!), and of course, the infamous “Tommy’s kitchen sink” syndrome would all have conspired uniquely against LP, and seen them fall short of the real polls.

History, however, records an altogether different outcome. LP got 19.5% of the vote on the day, winning 33 seats, and missing out on several others as a result of fielding too few candidates. Interestingly, IMS/MB took another poll for the Sunday Indo following the election, when the scale of the LP gains was evident, and they were at 26%, 9 points ahead of a demoralised FG.

Now, of course, no two elections are the same, and LP may well fall back from their current heights, particularly over the course of an election campaign, as has been confidently predicted by many since they hit 17% last year. But they may also continue to gain, and there are many similarities between ’92 and now. LP had a strong leader who was popular with the general public. FF were on the ropes, but were blessed to be facing a FG leader in John Bruton who was not setting the world alight, and who led a divided party. There was even talk of a LP Taoiseach, albeit of the rotating variety. However, the big difference was that there was no previous ’92 to look back at. Any suggestions that they could break the mould were dismissed as giddy talk, and the leaders debate was between FF and FG, with Spring out in the cold. We’ll never know what the outcome would have been had he been invited to that debate.

Despite this, and despite the more rural make up of Ireland then than now (which exercised Tommy to a considerable extent), LP not only did as well as the polls suggested, but did slightly better than even the best one for them. How come?

Well, there were probably a few reasons. One is that there was a momentum to LP, and the polls only picked it up as it was on its way. There was also a ‘critical mass’ effect, as people who never even considered voting LP before as they knew no-one else doing it, suddenly saw them as a party in their own right (curiously, Tommy thinks the bandwagon effect will supress the LP vote on the day, relative to the polls….) And most polls didn’t exclude Don’t Knows / Won’t Vote from party support, which means you could add 1-2% to the LP figures, making the average about 17% or so, about 2.5% short of their actual total.

But what was most interesting was that the biggest swings to LP were often in exactly the sorts of places that they would be expected to pick it up least, , and couldn’t have picked up the swing at all if you accept Tommy’s reasoning. Places like Clare, Cavan-Monaghan and Donegal NE, where LP usually couldn’t even field a candidate, were averaging nearly 10%, a slightly bigger swing than the national average and over half their national opinion polls rating. These were wastelands for the LP organisation at the time. In Clare, LP had run in the ’87 GE with Shannon Town Commissioner Tom O’Shaughnessy and received 1.27%, which saw them not even bothering in ’89. Mossy Bhamjee only agreed to put his name on the ballot paper to at least fly the flag, and was, it is said, quite shocked to hear that he had got elected (I wasn’t, by the way…). In Donegal NE, similarly LP came from a standing start, and with a candidate that was seen as an eccentric in LP circles. Sean Maloney was one of two brothers who ran a newsletter called “Labour Comment”, which was described by some as neither loony left, nor loony right, but just plain loony. Still, the man got 11.34% of the vote. In Cavan-Monaghan, a young woman called Ann Gallagher who had barely graduated from college and was practically unknown took LP from zero to 8.28%.

Remember, these are following polls showing LP on about 17%, and getting 19.5% on the day.

How did this happen? Surely, if there’s an ounce of sense in Tommy’s reasoning, they should have bombed, regardless of the polls. Well, for all the talk about “big vote getters” who would block LP’s progress, most of these are good at collecting a vote that is already there for their party. In the bigger parties, being high on the ballot paper can often be a factor (think of all the FF/FG politicians you know whose surname starts with the letters “A”, “B” or “C”), or having most of the Cumann run by “your people”. Sure, some candidates in all parties collect personal votes, but these are often overstated. The ’87 GE saw one such candidate that Tommy would be well aware of, Frankie McLoughlin, suffer a drop in the LP vote from 16% to 6% in terrible election for them, despite him being known as a prodigious constituency worker. If the tide is out, it’s out. What’s more, in the current circumstances, an anti-incumbency mood is about, to the benefit of newcomers.

But there’s other reasons that aren’t just picked up by most analysts. In places like Clare, the early polls would have been taken when there was no known LP candidate in their area. A potential LP voter being polled would have been more likely to tell a pollster they were voting LP if they were sure there was such a candidate. It’s human nature. Places like Dublin South West, they knew they were voting Mervyn Taylor, the Labour man, and would say so, but the same person in Donegal or Cavan, where they’re not even sure LP will be running a candidate – maybe they’d say LP, but maybe not. However, over the course the campaign, they see the name, they see their posters around the place, they get the flyer, and they know that it’s that Muslim Doctor, or that young woman (a solicitor, isn’t she?) or that guy with the funny look in his eyes. That makes it easier to declare, and that factor means that the swing does as well in such places as others.

But it wasn’t just there. Another FG poster, HBAP, argued that LP would fall short in Dublin as a result of lousy vote management, stopping them pulling in second seats. Now this will happen in some places (indeed, I’ve predicted it would). However, in his own constituency (Dublin SW), LP took 2 seats in ’92, despite a little known running mate for Taylor (the recently elected Cllr Eamonn Walsh), a very poor split in the vote (2/1), and a popular DL candidate in Pat Rabbite who was well placed to take advantage of slippage. Similarly, LP went from zero to two seats in Dublin North East, despite a poor split in the vote (the little known Tommy Broughan getting barely a quarter of the LP vote) and Pat McCartan being incumbent. The odds on two LP seats there tumbled during the campaign, but you could still get 8-1 against on the eve of polling.

Now, of course, there will be some local variations. But these will be variations from the norm, and that norm is what the spreadsheet it calculating. And, interestingly, recent constituency polls commissioned by FF and FG in Cork NW and Cork SC have shown results very close to those projected by the spreadsheet in the poll of polls calculations (and ahead of RedC).

FG know all this, and an unnamed FG source confirmed to the Sunday Business Post a few weeks back that on current polling, LP could take more seats than FG .

The signals of Labour’s sustained support have been there for months in newspaper polls, on the doorsteps and in private polling carried out by the parties. ‘‘If we come back with the same percentage of the vote we will lose five to seven seats,” predicted one Fine Gael source.

If we are in the region of 27 to 28 per cent in a general election we’ll be in loss-making territory.

As it is Fine Gael and Labour will be struggling to get their candidates over the line in some areas, but Labour will benefit from transfers from Sinn Fein, the Greens and the independent vote,” he said.

Whereas Fine Gael used to be the party with the greatest seat bounce at elections, next time around it will be Labour, the source predicted.

If Fine Gael dips below 30 per cent, existing seats will be lost. ‘

There is an unwillingness to believe it, but at times the numbers can be an exact science,” a Fine Gael source said.”

It is the awareness of this that led to the botched coup attempt by Bruton. But they are aware that the worst thing that could happen for them would be for this to be understood by a broader audience. In every election, there is a presidential style component to the campaign, and LP inevitably lose some votes to the larger parties as a result. An election where the choice for Taoiseach is seen as between Cowen and Kenny is perfect for FG, but where it’s evident that Cowen has no chance, and the choice is actually between Kenny and Gilmore, the reverse is likely. Some FG voters who prefer Gilmore (and polling suggests that they are numerous) would switch to LP, and some FF voters (and SF etc) would switch to LP to stop Kenny being elected. The wails of “But it was our turn!” would be heard from miles around…..

Polls have apparently shown that there is a large segment of the vote yet to finally make up their mind, particularly LP (40%) and FG (35%) showing a significant section of their support still up for grabs, but this is all parties, with 33% of voters in that category. But the last RedC poll was described in the SBP as showing very high levels of second preferences for LP. This was interesting for me, as in my simulations I assume no enormous change in their second preference support. If this is the case, LP’s seats to FPVs ratio could actually improve.

So what do I actually think will happen? Truthfully, I’m not sure. LP could of course fall from such a high vote, but they could also rise following the Budget. FF may also recover, but if they do, it’ll most likely be on the basis of making “tough decisions”, and it’s hard to see that impacting FG less than LP. The polls over the course of the campaign though will tell the story. All my projections are based on the current polls, they’re not (as I repeatedly say) a portal into the future.

But we are, as they say, where we are.

RedC Analysis Oct 2010

Apologies for the delay in getting a more detailed analysis of Sunday’s RedC up, it’s been a busy few days for me personally.

Carlow-Kilkenny
The spreadsheet has adjustments to cope with (a) McGuiness portraying himself as an outsider, and (b) a low proportion of the Spring Tide occurring here in ’92. The double effect minimises the LP gain here to just over 20%, with FF relatively strong on 28%, FG 36%, GP 7.6% and SF 5.8%.

While a LP2 candidate is in the running if they split their vote well and get decent transfers from GP and SF, putting LP2 ahead of FG3, I suspect they’d not manage all this on these figures, and there’ll be enough GP transfers and leakage from LP/SF to ensure FF2 stays ahead of FG3.

It would be very close, however, and certainly no risk to LP1 in a 2-candidate strategy – an even split of 10% each would have them both ahead of 13-14% worth of GP/SF votes, and a lop-sided split (unlikely if a candidate from each county) would see them about 13/7 (again with that many GP/SF around). Given they poll better with other companies, and are still safe with this one, it would appear that 2 candidates would be the right choice. Similarly, while FG would be a good bit short for a 3rd seat, their second is safe no matter what they do, so they may as well go for it.

Cavan-Monaghan
Very tight, I have LP just shading a seat here, but could as easily go to the Indo. Figures come out as 19% FF, 36% FG, 8% LP, 3% GP, 24.6% SF and 9% Oths. When I run the simulation, LP’s (Cavan-based) probable candidate Des Cullen is just ahead of the leading (Monaghan-based) Indo Paudge Connolly, and just behind SF2, who will be Cavan based. I have him staying ahead of Connolly, and getting enough transfers from him and GP to sidle ahead of SF2, and largely be elected on those Cavan-based SF transfers, after they are used to push O’Caolain over the line.

It is however the tightest gain for LP in the country, and if rumours I’m starting to hear about a 2 candidate strategy are accurate, they can kiss this one goodbye, on these figures certainly. FF on these figures would be very disappointed, having got 2/4 plus the CC here last time, with Brendan Smyth most likely their sole TD. FG will be hoping that, if they can split their vote very evenly between 3 candidates, and get good transfers from SF and the Connolly, all 3 can stay ahead of LP, but their difficulty is that they have one outgoing TD, and the other 2 candidates are likely to be significantly down the field, particularly if LP poll well in Cavan and SF do as well as projected in Monaghan. 1/2/1/1 it how I’d call it, but SF2 and IND both are very much in the running for that seat I’ve given to LP.

A good bet for an all-nighter.

Clare
A bit like the previous constituency, there is a final seat that no-one really deserves on these figures, but it has to go to someone. FF vote down to 25%(1), FG just under 42% (2) account for 3 obvious seats, but then it’s between FG3, LP on 9% and Oths (14%) for the final seat, with SF and GP both offering 5% each in transfers to act as kingmakers. While it’s anyone’s guess really, I have it going to former Ind TD James Breen, assuming that he runs.

Cork East
Slightly less complicated this, with FF on 18%, FG 32%, LP 38%, SF on 7.4% and GP on 2.3%. FF lose a seat to LP (probably the younger Mulvihill), with FG well short for that second seat they’ve had their eye on. Only possible surprise would be if SF field GAA legend Donal Og Cusack, who I’m informed is quite popular in these parts, which would be most likely to see the gain made by them instead of LP.

Cork NC
The spreadsheet is predicting a collapse in the FF vote here to 8% – needless to say, that’d be them losing representation here, with Kelleher a high profile casualty. This should bother them, as they’ll be looking to come out of this election with enough good performers to be an effective opposition, and he’d be a loss to them in that respect. Noel O’Flynn, on the other hand……

FG at 32.7% and LP at 29.2% both look to me to have balanced enough tickets to take 2 seats each, although SF at 10% and SP’s Mick Barry at around 7% are likely to challenge. Either could pull it off if they poll a few percent better and/or either FG or LP fail to split their vote well.

Cork NW
Here, the Gilmore Gale may fall short, if RedC are to believed. The spreadsheet suggests that while FF will fall to 32% and 1 seat, FG at 45% will take a second seat, in the face of a challenge from LP at 17%. This is a constituency where LP will be hoping that MRBI & Lansdowne are closer to the truth, or that local factors will assist. A local poll conducted on behalf of FF does however hold out hope for them.

Cork SC
Regular readers will be aware of the FG poll suggesting 2 LP seats here, and this is supported by this projection, which shows them obtaining pretty much the same result (27.5%) largely at the expense of FF (16%). FG are comfortable to take 2 seats at 37%, and GP (7.5%) and SF (7%) do slightly better than the FG poll, but all within the margin of error, so it would appear it was an accurate enough poll. On these figures, the last seat is won by Paula Desmond for LP.

Cork SW
Here, FF drop to 23%, and so hold one seat, along with FG (39.7%), and LP (23.9%), a net gain of 1 by LP from FG, who are losing PJ Sheehan to a driving related retirement…. The other transfers a-going are SF (6.5%) and GP (5.9%), making it unlikely that FG2 will be able to stem the Gilmore Gale here.

Donegal NE
Massive drop in the FF vote here to 29% leaving them with 1 seat where previously they held 3 (albeit on the defection of IFF’s Neal Blaney). FG seat is won with 27% of the FPV, and the last seat is SF’s on these figures, with McLoughlin on 19.7% staying ahead of LP’s Harte (13.2%). LP may take, ummmm, heart, though in that they are close enough in RedC, and ahead of SF in Lansdowne (and closer in MRBI). It could of course be thrown open if McDaid runs as an Indo, in which case all bets would be off.

Donegal SW
Similar to NE, with FF (29%), FG (26%) and SF (25.8%) taking the 3 seats, with 15% for McBrearty. This of course is a projection of the national swing in RedC, and McBrearty will be hoping that figures from MRBI and Lansdowne are more accurate, given they tally better with a local FG poll Still, SF are very much the favourite here, and it would be a major surprise if they didn’t get the 3rd seat in current circumstances. McBrearty is likely to have a better chance n the bye-election, and so his best hope may be for this to happen first.

Dublin C
Only 1 of the 4 seats here appears certain, in the shape of Joe Costello, and the destination of at least one other will be dependant on whether or not he accepts this as being the case, and splits his vote. LP come out at 36.4%, with FG fairly well placed at 14.6% to take a seat also (if somewhat lacking in obvious transfers). FF (10.8%) would not appear to have a realistic chance, and while SF may have better prospects at 10.3%, I can see both of them fall short of INDs (23.7%), probably O’Sullivan, although I’d not rule out Perry, and LP2 (probably Clancy). All very close, mind, with at least 6 realistic contenders. If I was offered good odds on Perry, I might fancy a flutter…..

Dublin MW
FG have been convincing themselves that they are in line to go from zero seats to two here, despite Fitzgerald and Keating having less than one quota between them last time, and Keating managing his share with the help of genuine Indo voters who will now be looking for another home. Much of this optimism is based upon the (probable) departure of Mary Harney, the presumption that her vote will all go to them, and of course the general swing to FG being picked up in most polls. However, this ignores the facts that (a) the national swing to FG includes ex-PD voters, and so they are counting that parcel of votes twice, (b) Harney’s vote was very personal, and having lost her, it’ll be dispersed rather less uniformly than that, and (c) in the last locals, despite the other parties not being able to field their vote-getting TDs (a disadvantage that didn’t arise for FG) they couldn’t break the 30% barrier, and they are unlikely to get transfers from the likes of SF and PBP, nor FF who will make up most of the transfers going.

The spreadsheet based on RedC suggests that LP on 38% are well placed to take 2 seats, and FG are safe for 1 on 23%, even assuming they split the vote very evenly. However, that’s where it all gets a bit hairy. FF bomb here (that’s even assuming they start with a chunk of Harney’s vote) at 8.8% and on these figures Curran will be transfer fodder.

So who will his vote transfer to? While Fitzgerald (who I’m calling as the likely FG2) will be hopeful at about 10%, SF on 10.9% and Gogarty on 9.3% would be similarly so, and in my view with more reason. Personally, I think the biggest chunk will stay in the Govt pile, to the benefit of the GP man, putting him ahead of SF and FG2. Transfers from OTH will be largely left-ish, and may favour SF, GP and FG in that order, but not by enough to make a significant difference, leaving Fitzgerald’s transfers to (a) elect Keating, and then (b) push either Gogarty or O’Broin ahead of the other (who I have pretty neck and neck at this stage). I suspect that, when push comes to shove, those who express a preference will go for Gogarty in greater numbers than SF. But it’ll be close.

Dublin North
Close one, and possibly closer than a uniform swing would suggest. On these figures, FF would lose both seats to LP, falling to 13.6%, LP getting 29.6%, FG would increase to just over a quota, Sargant would hold on at 13.8% (being ahead of FF and picking up some of their transfers) but Clare Daly at 11.3% would fall short. FF will of course be hoping that Gilmore’s talk of pushing back Metro North will lose him votes in Swords (it’s unlikely to make much difference along the East of the constituency where the Arrow line serves commuters very well), but if it does, one suspects that Sargant, rather than Kennedy is likely to be the beneficiary. Even if it helps Kennedy, it may result in the FF vote splitting more evenly, as Kennedy is still likely to fall behind O’Brien, but the latter being based in Malahide is unlikely to get much of a boost from this.

Needless to say, having an evenly split vote is not good when you’re chasing one seat with less than a quota. Given O’Brien is still likely to be ahead (due to the split in Swords), and Kennedy would be eliminated, the extra votes he may get out of the Metro North issue are likely to transfer to Sargant, and perhaps Daly, making the main effect a closer fight over the last seat between LP2 and SP.

For LP the vital issue is to split the vote well. Senator Brendan Ryan is the front runner, and given this imperative it’s possibly no bad thing that he’s not the most dynamic of candidates, but they still need to select another candidate soon if LP2 is not to become an also-ran. Kelleher has been mentioned, but given his Swords base he’ll need to run as a “Metro-rebel” if he’s to take any advantage of that. The alternative is a female parachute with links to Swords or Balbriggan.

I’d still just about call it 2 LP, 1 GP, 1 FG on these figures, and given this is RedC, that’s probably where it’s going.

Dub NC
FF collapse to 11%, FG get 31%, LP 27%, and OTHs 17%. That’s Bruton, O’Riordan and McGrath in my book (unless the Indo vote is mopped up by Callelly!) . FG and LP are both comfortable enough to enjoy the luxury of running mates, if they so wish. It would appear that nothing can save Haughey at this stage, and he may start looking ahead to the Seanad campaign.

Dub NE
FF slump to 10.7%, with no chance of a seat. FG come out comfortable enough with 26.5%, and LP on 41.3% appear to be a good bet to take 2 seats, nudging out SF who at 14.4% would be their main opposition.

Dub NW
Labour should expect to do very well here. Even in RedC, which is their poorest company, they are certain of 2 seats with 47%, and would even be in the hunt for 3 if they ran a reasonably balanced ticket (but they won’t, so they don’t). The real issue is therefore where the final seat would fall. FF will be disappointed to be starting at 16% between 2 outgoing TD, but this is consistent with the swing against them being recorded in the capital. It would keep them ahead of FG, however, who even up to 13% can’t see this as a great prospect for them. If LP had a 3 candidate strategy splitting 19/14/14 “Mad Bill” Tormey could even fall behind LP3 (and on MRBI and Lansodwne figures he would), but the reality is that there’ll be just 2 candidates, and he’ll most likely help Dessie Ellis of SF stay ahead of Pat Carey for the last seat.

The Metro North issue again could see FF perform better at LP’s expense, however LP would still appear safe for the second seat even if they lost 10%, thanks to FG transfers, and the effect would more likely see Carey pull ahead of Ellis (through no fault of SF). But on these figures I’d call it 2LP, 1SF.

Dublin S
FF 14%, FG 35%, LP 35%, GP 9%, SF 4%. Fairly straightforward 1/2/2, although if Ryan takes votes from FF as the leading Govt candidate here, it’s likely to see him take the seat off them. FG and LP would both be safe running 3rd candidates, and the latter doing so could seal Ryan’s fate, as LP3 could conceivably poll ahead of him. FG’s hopes of a 3rd seat here appear doomed, but no doubt they’ll give it a lash anyway, in memory of GLee…..

Dub SC
FF collapse here to 6.7% – even with one candidate that’s toast, with both TDs losing out. I’d expect one of them to retire, leaving the other to try to pull it off. FG on 18% would see Byrne safe enough with a nice little surplus, but at 45%, LP appear likely to go from barely missing the 2nd seat (when at 10% nationally in ’07) to taking a 3rd seat comfortably.

The last seat is very hard to call but also seems certain to go left, despite the 3 LP TDs. I ran this twice (for the fun of it), once with 3 LP candidates and once with 4 (HUpton, Byrne, Moynihan & Conaghan), and the latter saw them about 4% short of pulling off the 4th seat (a split of 15/13/11/10 would have been required, which is possible with MRBI/Lansdowne figures, but not RedC). However, on these figures, PBP’s Joan Collins (no, not that one) pips SF’s O’Snodaigh for the last seat.

Dublin SE.
LP get 2 seats from 38.5%, FG hold one on 23.5%, and GP (11.5%) and FF (13.6%) fight it out for the last seat. While one can see the rationale behind Andrews Twittered overtures to FG voters, I’d just about call this one for Gormley, who may do better on OTH transfers. he is vulnerable though – ultimately his fate will depend on him arguing that yes, he signed the order for the incinerator, but that he then stymied it so that it wouldn’t get in.

Dublin SW
Two seats for LP on 39.1%, and one each for FG (24.1%) and SF (15.6%). Tallaman and the lesser-Lenihen end up with 10.4% between them on these figures, making another 2-seat drop likely.

Dublin W
For reasons you’ll all understand, I’ve given FF’s Brian Lenihen a bonus, based on what I suspect will be significant sympathy for the man, and how he is dealing with his illness. However, on these figures, it would appear that he’d still need FF to be higher than 18% nationally if he’s to hold his seat. These figures still have LP taking 2 seats (with 43% of the vote), Leo V at 17.9% looks safe enough, and Higgins also at 17.9% is likely to stay ahead of FF’s 14.6% when 5.5% of SF transfers (and 3% LP surplus) are distributed. Again, as in NW, if FF took votes from LP over the Metro North issue (while most of this constituency is closer to rail lines, a good chunk of Swords is now here), LP should still be quite safe, but in this case FF could hold off Higgins, who will need transfers to return to the next Dail, even with the extra seat.

One to watch, I think.

Dun Laoghaire
A drop of a seat here, and 3 Ministers (2 at cabinet), a colourful Indo, and the man they’ll all be talking about, this will get some coverage during the campaign. LP would on these figures be looking at 37.8%, and with GP at 5.7%, SF 2.8% and OTH (mainly PBP) coming out at 10.9%, LP2 (whoever that is) would appear pretty safe. FG’s hopes of pulling 2 seats looks unlikely at 26.9%, and FF look good for a seat, with 15.9%. Even here though it’s not certain, as they may have it split quite evenly, which would maximise leakage, however, there would not appear to be anyone close enough to take it from them, unless PBP perform better than expected.

Galway E
FF collapse here, with fewer PD votes going their way due to Cannon going FG. I have them at 12.4%, which makes them unlikely to take any seat, which would be a disaster for them. No doubt they’ll be hoping to buck the trend here, but on these figures they’ll be up against it. FG are set to poll very well here (51.9%), and Cannon being on the ticket should see them take 3 seats. Possibly more remarkable is the projection that LP would be on 18.3%, and favourites to take the seat, with either Keaveny, or, if the rumours are to believed, a former independent running mate. OTHs show up at 11.3%, and if LP don’t poll as well as projected, they may face a challenge from former IFF TD McHugh, who would be expected to do well on FF transfers if he runs.

Galway W
OK – this one has a major caveat, as the spreadsheet currently contains no adjustment for Michael D being off the LP ticket, which was confirmed last week. I would stress though that when I reduce the figure for LP here, it’ll ripple back a small increase across the rest of the country as the total LP vote nationally will stay the same, and so any changes are likely to cancel out at the national level. Currently it shows a collapse in the FF vote to 10%, FG up to 26% and taking a second seat, LP similarly taking two on 27.5%, and OTHs yielding former PD Noel Grealish. When I re-cast the spreadsheet, I suspect that we’ll see FF gain one from LP here, although as I say LP likely to gain another elsewhere as a result of the redistribution of the same national total. For the purposes of the national total, therefore, this is 0/2/2/1.

Kerry N
Safe seat here for FG’s Jimmy Mujaha-Deenihen on 36.1%, I can see them considering a running mate with those sort of figures. There’s also a collapse in the FF vote to 14.3%. SF look well placed to take the second seat, with their projection at 24.6%, with Arthur Spring favourite to take the last seat, polling 18.6%, with only a resurgence in FF (or a strong running mate for FG) putting him in danger. Or perhaps him opening his mouth again.

Kerry S
FG appear safe at 28.5%, and LP would be expected to take a seat here with 23.5% (if they can find a decent candidate). The Bull O’Donoghue would appear slight favourite to hold on here, getting just over 21% falling into the FF column, compared to 20% for Oths (mainly, one presumes Healy-Rae, the Next Generation). It would be very close though, and it’s largely O’Donoghue’s tenacity that makes me see him holding on here. I also think that the ‘local man done wrong’ card will see him do better on transfers than you’d think…..

Kildare N
LP on 38.4% here, should take 2 seats, even with a poor split, with Catherine Murphy with 13.8% to take a seat on GP/SF/oth transfers (polling 3.7 , 3.5% and 3% respectively). FG’s stated hopes of 2 seats here appear on the hopeful side, with them showing 26% in RedC, their best company. FF bombing here at 11%.

Kildare S
A different picture, with FF holding on to 30.3% and one of their two seats. FG take the other from them with 22.8%, and LP are romping home with 36.2%, most likely Wall in the mid 20s and a running mate in the low teens.

Laois-Offaly
This one depends on whether LP can get their act together. FF on 40% are only sure of 2 seats (and that’s including the addition of a leaders bonus and some PD votes), and FG on 35% similarly. The spreadsheet projects LP getting 11.4% here, with some transfers likely from SF (7.9%) and OTHs (4.2%), which I see as the final seat.

Enright off the ticket makes FG harder to call, and this may inform LP’s choice of candidate. However, perhaps of more importance is making sure they are in a position to maximise their benefit from SF transfers. While they don’t appear to have a candidate of the calibre of Pat Gallagher, who memorably took a seat here when LP were far lower in the polls, it appears that a solid enough county councillor (or an articulate younger woman candidate to appeal to former Enright voters) running on the LP ticket should be able to take this seat as part of a Gilmore Gale.

Limerick City
The loss of a seat makes this a 4-seater, and the area leaving the city is apparently good FG country. The projections are that FF would be 18%, FG 32% and LP 37%, with 6% SF. On these figures, 2 LP would be safe enough, leaving both FF and FG with a dilemma. FF would have to decide if O’Dea really needs to run, as if FF are to come back in 2015/6, it’ll be Power that’ll be their future. Their fear of course may be that without O’Dea’s personal vote, they may not even pull in the single seat. For FG, it would appear that they’ll lose either Noonan or O’Donnell to the constituency review (and Gilmore gale). It’s hard to see SF make up the sort of ground they need to take this seat, regardless of Quinlivan’s high profile.

Limerick County
FF safe enough with 26.2%, FG very competitive with 46.5%, and LP coming in at 22.7%. I have LP shading it on Green transfers (they are 2.3% short on FPVs, whereas FG need 3.5% and have the risk of leakage). But very close.

Longford-Westmeath
For some reason, the projections from here send FG apoplectic every time…..
LP aren’t trebling their vote here like they are nationally, despite a Longford candidate this time, despite a gender balanced ticket this time, and despite her being a former TD. They are however doubling their vote to 37.2%, and with a fair share of SF (4.7%) and GP/Oth transfers are safe enough for that second seat. FF will be well down at 21.4%, but safe enough for one seat, and FG will make do with seat from 33.1%. Although this time they may be spared the embarrassment of that sole rep being James Bannon…..

Louth
Big news here if this poll is accurate. FF at 18% nationally is coming out as them at 13.6% here. Making Seamus Kirk Ceann Comhairle moves this from being a safe-ish seat for them to no chance, thereby ending Dermot Ahern’s stint in the Dail. On these figures, FG with 37.6% would take a second seat, LP on 19.4% would take one (probably Nash in Drogheda, although there’s talk they’ll run a Dundalk sweeper) and SF would hold a seat at 18.9%. Ahern’s best hope would be that rumours of Morgan’s retirement are accurate, and that a rooky SF candidate would slip just enough votes to Ahern for him to hang on.

Mayo
Or the Empire of Inda. Here, they look set to get 56%, which is 3 safe seats and a shot at a fourth. FF at 21.2% are safe for one, which means Dara Calleary and the “Class Act” BCF fighting it out. And who is FG fighting it out with? Former Indo Jerry Cowley looks set to get about 10.7%, SF are 7%, and Indos (probably mainly former LP member Kilcoyle) at 5.2%, and for me that’s Cowley. 1/3/1.

Meath E
I’m hearing conflicting rumours as to whether Lp’s Hannigan will have a running mate, but the more reliable ones suggest that he’ll be flying solo. If that’s the case, he’s safe as houses with LP likely to get 32.1% and one seat, with a very large surplus to spare. The likely beneficiary would be FG who, as it happens are also on 32.1%, but will be running 2 candidates. FF are at 14.3%, and SF (5.3%), GP (2.4%) and OTH (13.9%) seem unlikely to help them catch FG2. LP2 or Brian Fitzgerald appear the only danger to the FG2 seat here, but neither are likely to run from what I’ve picked up, so I’ve called it 0/2/1.

Meath W
FF hold on here (presumably Dempsey, although one can never tell) with 21.1%, as do FG rather more comfortably with 38.1%. LP are in line to take a seat, with 19.2%, ahead of SF on 14.9%. LP are still to select their candidate, with 3 going forward shortly to convention, so I hear….

Roscommon-S Leitrim
FF hold on with 20.1%, and FG hold both seats with 44.6%. LP’s Kelly too far behind (on this poll) with 14.5%, ahead of SF on 11.5% and OTHs on 7.6% (including Ming the Mayor)

Sligo-N Leitrim
As above, FF hold on with 22% (although which of the prodigal sons would be hard to call), and FG take a 2nd seat with 45.1%. Here this poll suggests LP’s O’Keefe behind SF on FPVs (13.3% vs 14.7%) and whichever is ahead after lower candidates are eliminated is too far behind FG2 to catch him.

Tipp Nth
Indos 38.3% hold 1 seat (thereby sticking one to the urban elites in their ivory towers, no doubt…). Expect the surplus to go everywhere, but FG (20.8%) and LP (18.6%) are likeliest to be pushed over the line, compared to FF on 16.5%, particularly when SF transfers of 5% are divvied out.

Tipp S
Gilmore Gale misses out here on these figures, with Prendergast mustering 18%, compared to FF (26.3%), FG (25.3%) and Healy 19%, Healy getting it on SF transfers.

Waterford
Very hard one to call, and preparations for the bye-election would add to that. LP, at 29.4%, when another 19% of the vote is left-leaning and divided, should be well placed to take 2 seats, but there’s no sign of them even selecting a bye-election candidate. This means I see them with O’Shea topping the poll with about 22% or so, but a very weak running mate on 7% falling behind both SF and Gilligan, who would be around 9% each. Whoever emerged from this group would be fighting it out with FG2 (presumably Coffey) for the last two seats as they are on 34.2%, and FF who would be on 16.3%. The FF seat I think would be quite likely, leaving the last seat between Gilligan and Coffey, and my projections show the former taking it by a very small margin. If SF had got ahead of Halligan, I’d tip FG to stay ahead of them, but as an Independent I’d see Halligan as transfer friendly for LP and SF voters.

Rumours abound that he’ll run for LP, but if they’re true it’s all taking a very long time, so I’m dubious. If he did, the 2nd LP seat would be almost certain. As it is, I’m going 1/1/1/1

Wexford
FF are on course to lose a seat to LP here, dropping to 23.3% while Howlin and his running mate (tipped to be Pat Cody) would have 25.6% between them, and FG looking at 37.2% and holding 2 seats. While FG will no doubt try to split their vote three ways to catch LP2, it’s likely that a geographically balanced LP ticket will do well on SF transfers (9.7%) making it implausible for FG3 to sneak in, and indeed SF would appear to be the biggest threat to LP2.

Wicklow
Liz McManus has gone, but LP still look like making a net gain here. While they are barely above their national vote at 28%, that’s them well placed in a 5-seater, particularly where neither candidate is an outgoing TD who’ll get the lion’s share of the vote. It’s still not clear if her son will be on the ticket, but it’s pretty certain there’ll be a candidate from the Bray end of the County. After that, it’s not clear, as Kelly, Kavanagh and a former Indo in the West of the County have all been mooted, as has a three-candidate strategy. On these figures, they may well be best concentrating on two candidates.

FG would also be looking at 2 seats, with 32.1%, leaving the last seat between FF (on 12.3%) and Behan, one of about 14% I see going to OTH. I’d call it Behan, who will do better on SF (7.1%) and GP (6.4%) transfers. If he doesn’t run, that seat would stay with FF. So expect Dick Roche to start love bombing Joe pretty soon….

The state of the parties after that is

FG 61
LP 57
FF 27
SF 7
GP 3
OTH 11

RedC move back in line

It’s been reported in politics.ie that the latest RedC poll has hit the streets, about 3 hours + ahead of the embargo. The figures are good for LP, OK for FG and GP, and make bleak reading for FF.

Figures reported by two posters are; FF 18 -6, FG 32 +1, Labour 27 +4, SF 9 -1, Green 4 +1, Ind 10 +1.

These figures would be an absolute disaster for FF, who have done better in RedC than the other companies. Similarly, for LP this would be their joint highest ever rating with RedC.

When I run it through the spreadsheet I get the following figures;

FG 61
LP 57
FF 27
SF 7
GP 3
OTH 11

Obviously this would be a significant improvement for LP on the previous RedC poll and shows RedC moving a bit closer to the MRBI/Lansdowne consensus that LP are above 30%. it would also suggest, given this is still the worst polling figure for LP, that the race for top party is definitely between them and FG. The trend in all the polling companies is in LP’s favour, although that could of course change. Although, at this stage, one has to wonder, when?

Interestingly, a FG/FF coalition would have a working majority, with 88 TDs, without being massive.

FG of course will be aware of this, and I’d expect them to start trying to knock LP, but they’ll have to be subtle – if they do it cack-handed, they’ll be suggesting that they want to enter coalition with a party that shouldn’t be trusted. Given Alan Shatter’s clumsiness in his attempts to put some distance between them, and the public reaction, that could be dangerous.

Have to run, but will put together a breakdown in the next day or so on where these gains appear to be falling.

Ah, now they’re just taking the p….

Another joke poll out from Quantum Research today.

Readers will be well aware of Quantum’s record from

this, this, and this.

This one builds on the Sindo’s campaign for a national govt, claiming about 80% in favour of a ‘consensus’ on the 4-year plan.

34% is the figure they propose are calling for an election before the budget, 31% immediately afterwards (how that would work, given it takes 3 months to pass the Finance Act that gives it legislative effect isn’t explained…) and the other 35% are happy to see it run it’s full term.

Curiously, it appears that 0% are unsure…… Very decisive bunch being polled this month ….

There’s also a lot of quite amusingly made up right-wing figures of what “the people” want in the budget – welfare cuts, more tax for lower paid, and PS cuts. The latter is amusingly messed up, as they claim that 73% favour compulsory redundancies in the PS, but barely half (54%) support the less radical solution of a 3rd round of paycuts.

Maybe the memo wasn’t very clearly worded ….

Also a load of made up quotes which are a poorly disguised attempt to lend support to the views of their paymasters.

As I said on p.ie, I’d love to watch a Primetime investigation into Quantum.

Anyways, roll on the next (real) poll – as noted in the linked posts above, these tend to yield very different figures.

I meant to say, “Southern Comfort with Red”, please…

Another Cork internal poll (this time from FF) indicating local movement similar to that predicted in this parish.

The Sindo, in addition to reporting the FG Cork SC poll reported in yesterday’s Indo (and also in Friday’s Evening Echo) are reporting on a FF poll from Cork NW

While the extrapolation of the ‘journalist’ in question is a nonsense (he sees FF vulnerable to losing their seat, despite being above a quota), it is interesting in showing FG “less than 50%” and LP over 20%, which would indicate the last seat being between FG2 and LP (as I’ve been projecting from most of the non-RedC polls). This is particularly interesting in the context of the FG Cork SC and Donegal polls – all the constituency polls are showing figures that make RedC – an outlier nationally – an outlier for constituency results also.

I would expect a few more of these in the coming weeks and months ….

Poll of Polls

I’ve done a poll of polls analysis of RedC, MRBI and Lansdowne/Millward Browne’s latest offerings and ran it though the spreadsheet. All three were taken in a reasonably short period of time (although RedC missed the FG pairings debacle) and all 3 companies have a similarly excellent record in GEs, so it’s the best such sample we’re likely to get this side of the election being called. I’ve excluded Quantum Research on the grounds that they are, to put it kindly, dodgy.

The results come out as

FF 23.3% – 41 seats
FG 28.2% – 50 seats
LP 30.2% – 62 seats
SF 7.3% – 5 seats
GP 2.3% – 0 seats
OTH 8.6% – 8 seats

LP have a similar vote-to-seats ratio as the last 2 GEs. 25-28% seems to be a vote where they pass a threshold (depending on the movements of other parties). SF on another 1-2% take a good few of these LP gains (and some FF seats), and even at this level could, depending on luckier transfers, win additional seats in 3-4 more constituencies, so a very small swing to 8% could see them nearly double their representation from this. Given the volatility in their poll rating, it would appear that getting the next GE strategy right will be of historic importance to them, they could still finish between 4 and 10 seats, which is a massive difference for a relatively small difference in FPVs.

FG by contrast appear to need to get over 30% (and/or be ahead of LP) to get into proper seat-bonus territory. FF are holding on at 23% on about 40+ seats, and it would appear that they need a decent increase in this level of support to even be in second when it comes to seats, given a high likely anti-FF transfer pattern between opposition parties. The Greens are looking even more precarious – on these figures they don’t even come close to winning a seat – their highest vote would be Trevor Sargant, with less than half a quota on 9.1%.

I’m not going to do a marathon 4-part post giving each constituency so soon after the last one, but if you’d like to know individual constituencies, let me know and I’ll oblige.

Southern Comfort

An internal FG poll (where are these all coming from?) in the Indo today

suggests the following figures in Cork SC;

FF 22%
FG 40%
LP 26%
GP 5%
SF 5%
OTH 2%

No mention of the polling company (it says “conducted by FG” but I think we can assume that FG haven’t suddenly become professional pollsters!). If you follow the link it shows Coveney topping the poll, Clune safe and Buttimer well down on 8%, so it was probably leaked by someone close to the latter, particularly as FG’s (very faint) hopes would depend on a significant amount of Coveney’s vote moving to him.

That would be reasonably close to uniform swing, with FG somewhat over-performing by 4-6% (just about at the limit of the moe). But I suppose it is their poll! 5% though is probably moe though so nothing dodgy here I’d say, this is the sort of area they could expect a swing slightly above the national average, so looks OK to me.

FF at 22% is in the 20-23% range of the Lansdowne/RedC polls in the spreadsheet, and so no surprise in this, but Martin being comfortable is interesting, as there’s been a lot of whispering that he might not get the seat. This suggests that there’ll be no great surprise here.

LP at 26% are above RedC and below Lansdowne (within the moe of the average), but hot favourites to get the second seat. More interesting (to me) is that the split reported between Lynch and Desmond is very(very) good. I was suggesting on p.ie that as a woman cllr candidate from a different part of the constituency she should get at least a third of the LP vote (that’s the assumption my spreadsheet makes) but was told by another poster (locke) from there that it’d be 4:1. However, in this poll it’s even better at 14.5 / 11.5. Given 5% each for GP and SF, that’d probably be Desmond in without needing significant FF transfers or FG leakages. Interesting, as this is one of those constituencies that FG are adamant that the LP target seat is unattainable, but one of their polls makes Desmond favourite to take the seat.

GP and SF as I say are at the moe, so you can’t really learn much from that, although interestingly, both are at exactly average the uniform swing in the RedC and Lansdowne polls.

All in all, it looks genuine enough given the moe, and if true pretty much confirms that the national picture is translating more or less locally.

Quantum Corrections….

As I noted here Quantum ‘Research’ polls have more than an air of something made up in the office, somewhat like football transfer gossip, and when their last poll suggested support for an alternative FF leader ran at 70% Lenihen and 30% Martin (and apparently nothing for Hanafin, Ahern, Coughlan etc or DKs) I expressed subtle reservations. The Indo have, co-incidentally, been pushing for Lenihen to take over for some time now

Since then, MRBI asked a similar question and got a somewhat more credible result (39% Lenihen and 18% Martin, with Hanafin 8%, Ahern 6%, Oth 5% and DK 24%). Now, for reasons best known to themselves, QR have decided to ‘ask’ the same question.

This time the results are a bit more realistic (i.e. much closer to the MRBI finding) but still show a swing to Lenihen since the early part of last week (no doubt as a result of all that good news regarding his handling of the banks…). Now, Quantum suggests 46% Lenihen, and 13% Martin. The breakdown of the remaining 41% isn’t revealed – no doubt a rocketing number of DKs from the 0% reported last time…

Also ‘asked’ was whether Cowen should step down as Taoiseach before the next election, with 68% being the figure reported (they helpfully exclude the figures for No and DK, allowing you to fill in the blanks with your own figures!). The figure in the IT earlier this week were 61/29/10, so it would appear to be a case of take the MRBI figure and push it up a bit.

The poll also has figures on support for Enda walking (71% say yes, presumably none of them LP supporters), and they reckon 61% support RB taking over (13% Leo). Needless to say, FG will ignore this if they are a serious party with the collective judgement required to lead a Government.

So that’s Enda gone by the end of the month, I guess…..

MRBI II

Part II of MRBI will, apparently, be released in tomorrow’s IT. They have favoured us with the following snippet

When asked if they would like to see Brian Cowen remaining as Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil until the next election 61 per cent said he should step down while 29 per cent said he should remain and just 10 per cent had no opinion.

So, is that him gone? Well, possibly not….

…among Fianna Fáil voters the position was reversed with 61 per cent saying he should remain and 32 per cent saying he should step down.

ahhh … right, most non-FF voters want him to go, and most FF voters want him to stay …. and the number of people who want him to go is actually less than those supporting parties looking for him to go. Not really saying anything there, I think….

Of interest, given the amateurish attempts by Quantum regarding who should succeed him (70% Lenihen, 30% Martin, 0% all others, according to them)

Mr Lenihan was supported by 39 per cent of voters followed by Micheal Martin on 18 per cent, Mary Hanafin on 8 per cent and Dermot Ahern on 6 per cent. Other candidates attracted the support of 5 per cent while 24 per cent had no opinion.

Sounds a bit more accurate, doesn’t it? No doubt there’ll be more snippets tomorrow….

Well, that’s that argument sorted….?

As I outlined here, there has been much debate as to the MRBI adjustments, and a good deal of p.ie bandwidth devoted to the effect of the new methodology. As I stated in the post linked, I’ve been of the opinion that the facts didn’t stack up to it making a significant difference, and it would appear that I was broadly correct, with the changes going in the opposite direction to that assumed.

When people were asked who they would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow, the figures for party support when the undecided voters are excluded, compared with the last Irish Times poll on June 11th last, were: Fianna Fáil, 24 per cent (up three points); Fine Gael, 24 per cent (down three points); Labour, 33 per cent (up four points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 2 per cent (down two points); and Independents/ Others, 9 per cent (no change).

I’ve just run this through the spreadsheet, and it produces the following seat totals;

LP 66
FG 45 (a good number of these the result of large LP surpluses)
FF 40
SF 7
GP 0
OTH 8

FG/FF on 85 seats between them … who will Shatter be cuddling on these figures….?

Compared to Lansdowne/MB that’s LP down 1, FG down 9, FF up 1, SF up 6, and OTH up 3, which would suggest that the SF vote in that poll was a blip (and the RedC similarly out in the opposite direction). FG are depending on LP transfers to come second on these figures, and so it would appear that their tactics this week have been less than successful. Certainly on this poll, it’s hard to see FG or FF come even close to LP on seats, and there’s no reason that Gilmore would choose FF over FG to be his junior partner. In fact, if this was reproduced in a GE, the only barrier to a LP/FG coalition would be the temptation Enda would have to do a ‘historic’ deal with FF, “burying civil war politics”, him taking Taoiseach and and new FF leader Brian Lenihen continuing in the role of Finance Minister (all in the national interest, of course).

In practise, he’d probably not even had this option, as a number of FG deputies would have been elected on LP surpluses (e.g. Brian Hayes), and might conceivably cross the floor rather than agree to that. So it’d be Tanaiste Kenny, or more likely the leadership would skip a generation. What price Leo the Prince?

It would be interesting though to hear Kenny asked if he’d serve under Gilmore if this was what the result was, or if he’d try to do a deal with FF… Funny old game, politics…..

The poll also shows a moderate recovery in FF’s fortunes, and while they’re not at a critical mass to take much advantage of this yet, another rise on top of this would steady their nerves. Indeed, another poll that showed them 1-2% ahead of FG might even tempt them to go to the people, as they’ve known for a while they couldn’t win the election, but if they run while Kenny is still leader, they could emerge as the official opposition, and ahead of FG. Silver linings in there, alright, and they know that Kenny won’t survive much more of this, and could soon be replaced.

For LP, it shows them on the brink of a very big breakthrough, but the suspicions linger that they’re not ready for it electorally. This is two polls in a week that show them getting more seats than the number of candidates they propose fielding. Even the 66 here excludes another 5 or so where they could pull it off with a better local strategy than I’ve assumed.

And who comes out of this the worst? Well, in my opinion, it’s not FG. It’s RedC. They are now consistently an outlyer against all the other polls (including those which have track records as least as good as them), and their defenders are running out of excuses.

Maybe they need a new leader.

The final chapter…..

…. of this post – sorry it took so long. Any longer and I’d have had to add MRBI to it.

Louth
While this should be increasing to 5 seats, the unpleasantness about JOD resulted in the swash-buckling Seamus “T” Kirk taking over as CC, making this a 4-seater with an additional FF seat added automatically. A parcel of Meath E – I understand quite pro-LP is also going in, which makes it a little more volatile.

L/MB
FF 19%-2
FG 37%-2
LP 30%-1
SF 11%

A Gilmore Gale in the Lansdowne/MB poll, which should see the Drogheda based LP candidate (probably Nash) elected, and take the spare seat. FG would also gain, on these figures, with McGuinness taking the seat from SF’s Morgan, given the collapse of the SF vote in this poll. Dermot Ahern would, on these figures, be elected on transfers…. it would however vindicate Kirk’s selection as CC, given they wouldn’t have got 2/5 on these figures.

RedC
FF 20%-2
FG 36%-2
LP 15%
SF 20%-1
GP 5%

Very close contest for the last seat, but I’d probably have FG2 shading it from LP1, on the grounds that MCGuinness (sp?) is North of the county, and GP transfers, which LP would need on these figures, are from that end of the constituency. That may not be the outcome of course, and it would be very much re-count material.

Mayo
Given the freakishly high FG vote last time (boosted by the then popular Mayo Manager John O’Mahony), the fact that Bev was an Indo and is now FF, the fact that Dr Jerry was an Indo and is now LP, the likelihood that ex-LP Cllr Kilcoyle will run as an Indo … all make this one a hard one to call

L/MB
FF 25%-1
FG 54%-3
LP 15%-1

The good Dr to get in again, this time courtesy of a national swing. FF to lose out, although who? I’ve got it as Bev, but given she was an Indo before I’ve nothing to base that upon, other than a perhaps over-optimistic faith in human nature. Plus Calleary is likely to be a Minister whenever FF do come back, and I suspect local FF supporters will take that long term view.

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 54%-3
LP 8.3%-1
SF 7.7%

Same outcome, but much much closer, Cowley staying ahead of FG4 on SF and IND transfers, and then getting sufficient surplus from FG3 to take the 4th seat, with the 5th between the 2 FF candidates.

Meath E

L/MB
FF 18%
FG 29%-1
LP 41%-2 (yes, yes, I know….)

LP’s Hannigan would take one seat from FF, and on these figures, LP2 (if such a creature existed) would take the other. Unlikely to see a running mate here for Hannigan, unless LP stay in the 30s.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 27%-1
SF 6%

Here, FF hold one of the seats, although interestingly LP would not be in trouble if they ran 2 candidates, with SF and OTH transfers making them comfortable for the single seat.

Meath W

L/MB
FF 27%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 28%-1
SF 8%

LP gain at the expense of FF, probably Brady, but with local man Shane Cassels attacking Dempsey, it’s unclear if the seat at cabinet will save him. He should probably hold on, but if you’re looking at high profile casualties, this could be one.

RedC
FF 29%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 14.4%-1
SF 15.9%

Much closer for LP, with them getting ahead of SF on transfers. If SF do poll 10% and LP aren’t much over 20%, LP are depending on polling more than FG2 and then getting a surplus from the election of English.

Roscommon/Leitrim

The Ming factor will be one to watch here. Luke Flanagan may have a high profile campaign, but with Indos set to have no leverage in the next Dail, he may find his support softer than he’d wish. If he does well though, he’ll damage ex-Indo Kelly, who is competing with him for the same votes.

L/MB
FF 24%-1
FG 43%-1
LP 20%-1

LP would gain a historic seat, with transfers pushing them ahead of FG2.

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 43%-2
LP 11.8%
SF 12.5%

LP lose out – I have them getting ahead of SF on transfers, but never catching FG2 on the RedC figures.

Sligo / Leitrim

L/MB
FF 26%-1
FG 44%-1
LP 19%-1
SF 8%

O’Keefe takes a seat for LP, although presumably not the same as (ex-?) CPI member Declan Bree did in the Spring Tide. The seat would be at the expense of one of the 2 “Ind” FFers who I expect to be back on the ticket by then.

RedC
FF 27%-1
FG 43%-2
LP 11%
SF 16%

This time, the RedC surge for SF puts them ahead of LP, and FG benefit with a second seat, again at the expense of FF.

Tipp Nth
Lowry country. The spreadsheet assumes no responsibility for the predictions here, in much the same way Newtonian physics don’t work at the sub-atomic level….

L/MB
FF 20%
FG 20%-1
LP 25%-1
Lowry 28%-1

LP’s “The Quiet Man” Alan Kelly gets elected on a shoe-string budget, leaving FF (and Maire Hoctor) bereft of a seat here on these figures.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 21%-1
LP 16%
SF 6%
Lowry 30%-1

With RedC, LP lose out, with FF getting enough Lowry transfers to stay ahead of LP, regardless of SF no.2s.

Tipperary Sth

L/MB
FF 30%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 23%-1
Healy 16%

Prendergast takes a seat from FF – most likely Martin Manseragh (I can’t see
Mattie losing out – he’ll take their only seat if he runs as an Indo).

RedC
FF 32%-1
FG 25%-1
LP 15%
SF 5.5%
Healy 17%-1

Healy this time is the one to take the FF seat, with LP coming up short.

Waterford

The retirement of Martin Cullen (and the possibility of a by-election victor on the scene before the GE) makes this a harder one to call than most.

L/MB
FF 21%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 39%-2

On these figures, LP2 (possibly the by-election victor) would take Cullen’s seat, with no other changes.

RedC
FF 24%-1
FG 33%-2
LP 24%-1
SF 10%

On RedC, FG take the final seat instead, with SF and LP2 a distance behind. LP1 is safe though, whether they run 1 or 2 candidates.

Wexford

L/MB
FF 27%-1
FG 35%-2
LP 32%-2
SF 4%

LP2 (probably Enniscorthy based Pat Cody) would take a FF seat fairly comfortably, possibly Browne losing to Connick.

RedC
FF 29%-1
FG 36%-2
LP 22%-1
SF 11%-1

On the RedC figures, a big swing to SF means that they are the beneficiaries of FF’s fall from grace in Wexford.

Wicklow

The retirement of Liz McManus, the possibility of a Nicky Kelly solo-run, and Joe Behan’s intentions make this a very hard one to call.

L/MB
FF 17%-1
FG 30%-2
LP 39%-2

LP gain one from FF, probably Behan’s. The mooted 3 candidate strategy would not endanger the 2nd seat on these figures, and would have a long-shot chance if they pulled in extra votes at the expense of FG and/or FF.

RedC
FF 20%-1
FG 31%-2
LP 23%-1
SF 8%
GP 5%
Behan 10%-1

LP 2 loses out to Behan (if he runs). LP3 would need to pull in extra votes to be a benefit, rather than a hindrance to their chances. Definitely a constituency where LP can’t decide on final line up until they know what range of support they’re looking at.

So that’s what last weeks polls suggest in each area. I hope it’s been worth the wait!

Dotski

Three of Four

Part Three

A continuation of this

Galway E

L/MB
FF 17%-1
FG 48%-2
LP 26%-1 (yes, yes, I know….)

On the Lansdowne/Millward Brown poll, LP would come from way behind to taking a seat here, on these figures. It seems a lot, even to me, and if they fell short of that, I’d not be surprised, even with Gilmore being from here. However, if they did worse on the same national total, it’d have to be somewhere else.

RedC
FF 19%-1
FG 50%-2
LP 14%-1

Looks a bit more reasonable to me, I have to say, although tellingly it’s the same outcome. Colm Keaveney looks good to take a seat here, triggering a mass exodus of transsexuals from Tuam

Galway W
This is a tough one, as I’m not sure whether to include Michael D as a LP candidate, given he’s said it will depend on the timing of the election vis-a-vis the Presidential election. I’ve assumed he’s standing, so if he doesn’t you can assume a worse LP result

L/MB
FF 14%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 37%-2
OTHs 22%-1

It would appear that FF would hold onto a single seat here on these figures (O’Cuiv), if the swing in this poll materialised and MDH was running. Noel Grealish would also hang on, and LP2 would be elected on transfers.

RedC
FF 17%-1
FG 26%-1
LP 23%-1
OTHs 26%-2

On these figures, the FF seat would fall not to LP2, but to a second leftwing Indo, making Galway West the most diverse constituency delegation in the nest Dail.

Kerry N -Limerick
L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 25%-1
SF 16%

Cliffhanger! LP take a seat, but the identity of the loser goes to a re-count. SF may do better in FG transfers than FF in a lot of places, but the general Limerick area may not be one of them.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 34%-1
SF 26%-1
LP 15%

Red C figures, LP well down (on other polls, that is…), SF well up, would see LP fighting it out with FF for the last seat. Very very close, and LP could definitely get it, but I’ve FF just a bit too far ahead to be pulled in without very good FG transfers, which Arthur may not pull off.

Kerry S

L/MB
FF 25%-1
FG 27%-1
LP 29%-1
H-R 17%

LP gain from the Healy-Raes, rather than FF.

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 28%-1
LP 20%-1
H-R 18%

The same result, but much closer. The 2 polls together suggest that this constituency is between LP and IND for the last seat.

Kildare N

L/MB
FF 14%
FG 23%-1
LP 48%-2
Murphy 10%-1

On these figures, LP would gain one from FF, and the second FF seat would also fall to either Indo Catherine Murphy or LP3, with Murphy favourite to shade it, as a result of poor LP vote management.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 26%-1
LP 33%-1
Murphy 13%-1

In this scenario, LP2 loses out, but Murphy takes one of the 2 FF seats.

Kildare S

L/MB
FF 33%-1
FG 20%-1
LP 41%-1

FG take a seat from FF, nudging ahead of LP2, who don’t manage their vote sufficiently well enough to pull of a gain.

RedC
FF 37%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 32%-1

Same outcome, just less suspense….

Laois-Offaly

L/MB
FF 45%-2
FG 33%-2
LP 16%-1

LP win back the seat they took in the Spring Tide with Pat “Can Cope” Gallagher. Assuming they find a candidate….. Mental health Minister Maloney would lose the seat.

RedC
FF 46%-3
FG 33%-2
LP 8.6%
SF 8.5%

FF hold on to 3 out of the 5, with LP getting ahead of FG3 on SF transfers, but falling too far short to catch Moloney.

Limerick City

L/MB
FF 22%-1
FG 28%-1
LP 46%-2

Major changes here, a large chunk of FG-friendly votes being pushed out of the constituency, a loss of a seat, two FG finance spokespersons, a disgraced poll-topping former Minister sharing a FF ticket with a junior that many would see as more capable, a SF candidate who brought said Minister down, and a LP looking to capitalise on a Gilmore Gale.

Figures come out with LP and the boundary revision taking one each from FF and FG. I’d like to think O’Dea and Noonan would be the ones to go, but unfortunately I think it will be O’Donnell and Power. Both, however, would be back, IMO, the following election.

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 32%-2
SF 7%

Same outcome, but closer between O’Donnell and Leddin (likely LP2) who gets in on SF transfers.

Limerick County

L/MB
FF 29%-1
FG 43%-1
LP 27%-1

LP pull off a seat at the expense of FF. This constituency has been volatile in the past, with the 3rd seat passing between FF, FG2 and even the PDs (when FG1 didn’t get in!).

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 45%-2
LP 20%

RedC polling has FG take the seat ahead of LP on the final count

Longford Westmeath

L/MB
FF 24%-1
FG 30%-1
LP 42%-2

On these figures, Mae Sexton takes the last seat ahead of FG, continuing a bizarre LP/PD relationship in this constituency

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 32%-1
LP 33%-2
SF 6%

As above, only closer.

Final part here

Another 48 hours

Part II of this post

Sorry this took a while, part 2 of 4. I’ll try to get the rest up tomorrow.

Dublin C

L/MB
FF 15%
FG 13% – 1
LP 47% – 2
OTHs 18%-1
SF 5%

A bit of a hard one to call, as there may be a number of strong indos running, and there’s no guarantee that O’Sullivan will be one of them. Perry will have a good chance if she doesn’t (or possibly even if she does) and Christy may jump into the melee and see what happens. Lp may even run a 3rd candidate. But when I run the Lansdowne figures, it’s LP 2 comfortably enough (with LP3 losing out due to poor splitting of the vote), Donaghue getting through (almost by default, given the collapse in SF) and O’Sullivan beating Fitzpatrick on the last count.

RedC
FF 17% -1
FG 14%
LP 32%-2
SF 12%
OTH 23%-1

The significant difference would be FG gaining little in LP surplus loses to FF, who are that bit closer to the line from the start. A 3rd candidate for LP actually makes them a little safer, by reducing Joe’s share of the total LP fpv, and therefore his surplus, from which there’ll be be leakage due to his personal vote. That’d probably be the end of Paschal’s career here – 3 times tipped to win, and a 3-time loser.
Dublin MW

L/MB
FF 13%
FG 21% -1
LP 49%- 3
SF 5%
GP 5%
PBP 3%

LP get 3 seats, gaining one each from FF and the GP, and FG gain one from Mary Harney. Seems unlikely? Well, they are 43% in Dublin in this poll, and 49% is what the spreadsheet is throwing up here. FG for all their bluster aren’t going to go from 0 to 2, they’ll get the one gain and barring a bigger swing, that’ll be that. The GP seat being up for grabs is probably beyond debate (there are rumours that Gogarty may not run) which plays largely into LP’s hands, and that combined with the drop in SF in this poll means that at 49%, LP would be well placed to have 3 candidates ahead of everyone except FG (when the second candidate is eliminated), including FF. Of course a stronger performance by FF would see them take the seat, or a poorer LP one, but if Tuffy goes with one running mate in each ward (Dowd & Jones perhaps) and particularly pushes LP voters in Lucan to give Jones No.1s, they would be very well placed on these figures, with nearly 4 times the FF vote, and transfers from SF to come (transfers from GP aren’t likely to unduly favour FF, I would have thought). It’d be close, certainly, but in the absence of a FF recovery, or a bigger swing to FG, it’d be what looks likeliest.

RedC
FF 15% -1
FG 23%-1
LP 33%-2
SF 12%
GP 7%

LP wouldn’t get a 3rd seat with 3rd candidate, no matter how well managed and FF would then hang on, making it a constituency in Dublin where FF don’t lose a seat. The second LP seat would still appear to be safe enough, even with 3 candidates if they ran them, however it split. SF would have an outside chance of beating Curran, but would probably fall just short.

Dub N

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 18%-1
LP 40%-2
GP 8%

Both Govt parties lose a seat to LP – probably not a shock, in the current circumstances.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 20%-1
LP 25%-1
GP 11%-1
SP 11%

Assuming LP don’t split the vote well here, LP2 behind SP/GP, and helping Sargant more (based on his personal vote). Last seat is however between GP, SP and LP2. Main FF interest is who takes the remaining seat.

Dub NC

L/MB
FF 19%-1
FG 29%-1
LP 37%-1
FmcG 13%

Assuming 1 LP candidate here, a second would possibly outpoll McGrath, depending on the split, but still there’d be too much ground to make up for LP2 on FF. Haughey would sweat a little, nevertheless.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 30%-1
LP 23%-1
FMG 16%

LP still get the seat, but should only run a running mate if they will bring in votes that McGrath would otherwise take. I’d like to see a few more polls with LP over 25% before I’d recommend it.

Dub NE

L/MB
FF 15%
FG 24%-1
LP 52%-2
SF 8%

Two handy seats for LP on these figures, as there was when LP went from 0 to 2 in ’92 (a 4-seater then). FF and SF not even close on these figures.

RedC
FF 17%
FG 26%-1
LP 36%-1
SF 16%-1

The very high polling for SF in the RedC figures puts them back into contention. LP would need to split their vote unreasonably well to win a second. No danger to the 1st seat in 2 candidates, though.

Dublin NW

L/MB
FF 20%-1
FG 11%
LP 58% (yes, I know)-2
SF 8%

The general assumption is that LP can’t win 3 out of 3 anywhere. If the polls showing them over 30% come to fruition, this will be tested. In this poll, LP were up and SF down, and FF only barely beat LP3 as a result of poor split in LP vote and a significant SF non-transferable vote. With the same figures and a well run LP campaign, they’d take the 3 seats. But I reckon they’ll not go for it.

RedC
FF 23%-1
FG 12%
LP 40%-2
SF 19%

Even if they run 3 candidates, whatever the split LP would be sure of 2 seats here, thanks to FG transfers. No chance of the 3rd on those figures, but no harm in trying, given the possibility of polling higher.

Dublin S

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 32%-2
LP 44%-2
GP 5%

Well, the swings were always of a higher quality in Dublin South! Two safe as houses seats for LP, one from each coalition partner, and safe to run a third if they wished.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 34%-2
LP 30%-2
GP 7%
SF 5%

Same result, but LP in on SF transfers (presumably against FG3). Ryan well behind. A 3rd Lp candidate is unlikely to cause difficulties, and more likely to knock Ryan out even earlier by taking some of his vote, arguably making 2nd seat even safer.

Not that they’ll believe me….

Dublin SC

L/MB
FF 10%-1
FG 16%-1
LP 56%-3
PBP 9%
SF 5%

LP would not only be safe for 3 seats on these figures, but would be competitive for a 4th seat if they ran a Byrne-HUpton-Conaghan-Moynihan ticket. They’d ultimately fall just short, but it would be close enough, and I’d not like to guess who’d win the 3rd seat. FF would probably win the last seat without reaching the quota.

RedC
FF 12%
FG 17%-1
LP 40%-3
SF 12%-1
PBP 11%
Ding-dong battle here. By my reckoning, SF would hold onto this seat from PBP transfers, which would also be helping LP3 across the line ahead of FF1. But it would be very close, and it’s hard to call – SF would be the most vulnerable to a stronger FF challenge, and PBP would be very close also. In the spreadsheet I have them running both Collins (who was Indo last time) and Smith, and there’s some leakage in the transfers. If they ran a single candidate who managed to take all of the votes that would have gone to both of them last time, they’d probably stay ahead of SF and take that last seat.

Dub SE

L/MB
FF 16%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 49%-2
GP 6%

I’ve given the GP a ‘leaders bonus’, but it’s done nothing for them here. On the basis of this poll, the tide is out big time, and there’s little that would appear could save Gormley. LP on the other hand, with a very balanced ticket, appear well placed to deliver on the promise from the LEs and take a second seat, but a comfortable margin. FF’s Chris Andrews would appear well placed, particularly if he doesn’t have a running mate imposed on him.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 35%-2
GP 10%
SF 6%

Not quite as comfortable, but no change from Lansdowne. At least Gormley gets to contest the last seat with Humphries, but the outcome is the same.

Dub SW

L/MB
FF 14%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 51%-2
SF 9%

This is a constituency where LP could pull in a 3rd candidate, but show no interest in it, from what I can see. If they are 43% in Dublin, they are over 50% here, even losing Rabbitte’s “leaders bonus”, and other left-wing transfers should push them to the 58-9% required on the last count to get a 3rd seat, but Rabbitte is unlikely to run more than one running mate no matter what the situation, I’m given to understand. The beneficiary would, most likely, be FF who’d hold one of their 2 TDs, although they would face a stiff challenge from SF, who would benefit from SP transfers and a fair bit of Labour’s surplus.

RedC
FF 16.7%
FG 23%-1
LP 33.2%-2
SF 17.2%-1

As you can see, much closer here. FF despite having a higher first pref, would lose out to SF who perform much better under RedC, taking the 3rd seat, and LP2 takes the 4th seat on SP transfers. Very very close though, and if you argued FF would take this at the expense of LP, I’d not get into an argument with you – it’d just be too close to call.

Dublin W

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 15%
LP 52%-2
SP 13%-1

I’ve made an adjustment to the base here to account for what I believe will be a bigger personal vote for Lenihen here, for reasons I think most of you will understand. LP appear unlikely to run 3 candidates (although there’s merit in the idea, Nulty running to take votes from Higgins, and Kelleher to take votes in the new Swords part of the constituency). Their surplus is likely to help Higgins a bit more than Leo, although I’d not write him off, even on these figures.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 17%-1
LP 38%-2
SP 17%

Here, the lower LP vote means no LP surplus to help Joe haul in Leo. It’s also a case where LP running that 3rd candidate could lose them the 2nd seat.

Dun Laoghaire

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 47%-2
PBP 8%

Well, LP got above their average here last time, they have their leader here now, a bad area for LP has been moved in the revision, and they are 43% in Dublin on this poll, so I guess it’s no surprise that they’d be 47% here. RBB would have have to postpone the revolution for another 5 years. Interestingly, FF would hang on, with a vote that’s a bit better than the LP poll we heard of last month The most interesting part of the count might be which FF Minister hold on at the expense of the other.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 27%-1
LP 34%-2
PBP 10%
GP 5%
SF 4%

No change on above, but LP2 depending on transfers from PBP (if GP/SF don’t elect them first).

Continued here…

48 Hours

Two polls, and two very different results. P.ie has been dissecting the results, and predictably, those who prefer the outcome of RedC are arguing that Lansdowne and Millward Brown are somehow unfit for purpose. LP at either 23% or 35%? SF at 4% or 10%? While it would appear that there is a significant vote floating between those two parties, it’s still not enough to explain these variances.

As (I think) I showed in this exchange , Lansdowne/Millward are as good as most, and have in fact been pretty impressive in the past. But RedC have a fine GE record also, even though they’ve been out of sync to a degree with MRBI recently, and particularly the last 12 months.

In fact, the best argument in favour RedC’s methodology is that Quantum Research also disagree with it on LP and SF support rating LP at 33% when undecideds are excluded, which means that QR is closer to MRBI (32%) and Lansdowne/Millward (35%) than RedC. Although personally, I’ve assumed that this is a lack of imagination on the good Doctor’s part, rather than professional excellence on the part of QR.

RedC could of course be out of kilter, as they’ve been disagreeing with MRBI also regarding the level LP are at, although this argument may be resolved in the coming days

MRBI may move with the change in methodology, but if they don’t (and they had LP on 29% without adjustments), that puts RedC on their own, as no-one else is currently putting LP in the 20s, never mind 23%. If MRBI put them at below 25% next week, most analysts (including myself) will believe it). But if MRBI keep them above 26%, RedC are pretty isolated, and from companies with comparable track records to themselves.

Anyways, I told people on p.ie that I’d do a breakdown of the 2 polls by constituency, and (for reasons best known to who knows) I’ll keep my word. Before reading this, please bear in mind that local results always vary somewhat from the uniform swing. This gives you an idea of what that uniform swing is that they’d be deviating from, rather than is some sort of portal into the future. However, if your party over-performs the national swing somewhere, it will under-perform elsewhere. Effectively, unless you’re a small party, the differences will cancel out.

The spreadsheet takes the 2007 results as a base for the distribution of the vote, and makes some small changes, e.g. Regarding PD votes, personal votes, effects of boundary changes etc.

It then computes uniform swings in (a) the vote each party received, and (b) the vote each party didn’t receive (e.g. Non-LP vote down from 90% to 65% is X% etc). The composite of these effects is combined with a further swing which take into account the proportion of the national swing in ’92 experienced in each area (the idea of this is that while LP got big gains then nationally, it was quite low in some areas such as Kerry). The composite of all these votes is them calculated. In each constituency, the total will now be above/below 100%, and each party total is then apportioned up/down to adjust to 100%. National totals are then calculated, and where they are deviating from the input figures, there is an adjustment across the board to bring them back in line. You then have a distribution of votes that adds up, and is remarkably similar in pattern to what has happened in the past when there was significant swings.

Sounds like a lot, but it takes less than a second, running on OpenOffice on a pretty old laptop.

Next, it feeds into 43 constituency tabs. Each of these assumes a percentage of each parties vote will go to particular candidates, and is set up to auto-compute counts when you enter your estimation of how the transfers go. This is a manual job, and is the most subjective part. I’m assuming good transfers between FG and LP, except when there’s a good left-wing candidate present (although FG still get a decent share there also). Better transfers too to SF this time, and also more SF transfer to FG than in the past (but more to LP, about 35-40%). GP / FF about 35-40% each way. A typical LP vote split is 2:1, although late 3rd additions are assumed to do pretty badly (3.5/2/1).

When I’ve finished the final count, I enter the party seats in each tab, and that feeds back to the ‘front’ tab, although if it’s very obvious from the headline figures, I may not bother with the constituency tab, and just enter the seat totals on the front tab.

So that’s how I do it. Disagree with the assumptions? Fine. Do your own, and share the results!

This post would be rather long without breaking it up a bit, so I’ll do that alphabetically (for no better reason than it’s how I’ve laid out the front page of the spreadsheet….). It’s lunchtime and I’ve done the first of 4 instalments (Carlow-Kilkenny to Donegal South-West). I’ll stick this up now, and the other 3 as they’re done (hopefully this evening, other duties permitting…..)

Dotski
————

Carlow-Kilkenny to Donegal South-West

Carlow-Kilkenny
Lansdowne/MB
FF 32% – 2
FG 34% – 2
LP 26% -1
GP 4%

Fairly straightforward. The spreadsheet is adjusted to assume a lower swing against FF on the grounds that McGuiness will tap into a lot of the ex-PD vote for his “rebel” grandstanding (despite his happiness to feed from the trough when offered the opportunity). FG gain from FF, and LP gain from GP, with only a good FF performance (and the lack of a bad one from FG) stopping them taking another seat from FF.

RedC
FF 34% – 2
FG 35% -2
LP 17%-1
SF 7%
GP 6%

The same outcome, but no outside chance of LP getting a second seat. No risk to the single seat from a 2nd LP candidate though (30% in the broad left/green camp) so it would still appear prudent for LP to run 2 candidates. There’s no risk to FG running 3 candidates, as their 2 seats are safe.
————-

Cavan-Monaghan

L/MB
FF 24% – 1
FG 37% – 2
LP 13% – 1
SF 16% – 1

This was a 4-seater last time out, due to Ardal O’Hanlon’s Dad being the CC. FF on these figures would lose 2 seats, one to FG and one to LP who will most likely field Teacher Des Cullen. I’m told that LP in Cavan has seen an a number of new people looking to join, with a new branch to be established in South Cavan, and these could be the bodies who help them over the line here. Unlikely? Well LP couldn’t run a candidate in 1989, but got 8.3% in ’92, when getting 19.5% nationally, i.e. about 43% of their national vote. The same proportion here would amount to 15% in Cavan-Monaghan, so this is far from impossible, particularly given the influx of Dub refugees since then.

RedC
FF 24% – 1
FG 34% – 2
SF 26% – 2
LP 6%

The much lower LP vote in this poll would be a result of SF, a party they are competing with for votes, and who are very strong here, getting much more, as a result of a general swing to them.

There’s a further 10% who would largely be well disposed to LP, but not enough for them to pull in the Cavan SF candidate on these figures. Looking at this, I think LP have to be about 4 times SF’s national polling to be pulling the seat here, e.g. 6% SF and 24% LP.
————-

Clare

L/MB
FF 29% – 1
FG 40% – 2
LP 14% – 1
Breen (Ind)11%
GP 3%

Well, assuming they run a candidate….. LP famously went from no candidate in 1989 to having a TD in ’92 with Dr Bhamjee who pulled in 11.5%. On the basis of this poll, a similar result is likely in Clare this time out.

RedC
FF 30% -1
FG 40% – 2
Breen(Ind) 11% – 1
LP 7%
SF 6%
GP 4%

In the RedC, LP would be likely to lose out to former a Indo TD, should he run. Should he not be in the race, LP are right back in it, fighting it out with FF for the last seat.
——————–

Cork East

L/MB
FF 21% – 1
FG 30% – 1
LP 44% – 2

Fairly straightforward, with the second LP candidate (preumably Mulvihill the Younger) taking a second LP seat at FF’s expense.

RedC
FF 23% – 1
FG 31% – 1
LP 34% – 2
SF 8%
GP 2%

Closer, but still LP would be favourite to take the second seat, regardless of candidate split, given SF and GP transfers are more likely to benefit them than FG, who’d start off 3% behind anyway.
—————-

Cork NC

L/MB
FF 12%
FG 30% – 2
LP 40% -2
SF 5%
SP 5%

LP’s Gilroy gain one seat very handily, and FG2 takes the last seat on SP transfers (with Mick Barry very nearly getting ahead of him – penultimate count being FG2 13.96%, FF1 13.59% and SP on 11.24%). Very tight.

RedC
FF 14%
FG 32% – 2
LP 24% -1
SF 11% – 1
SP 7%

Here LP lose out to SF. No threat to the 1st LP seat though (and it’s still possible if they split the vote fairly evenly), so 2-candidate strategy is justified, particularly as Gilroy is likely to be brining in extra votes.
—————-

Cork NW

L/MB
FF 35% – 1
FG 42% – 1
LP 21% – 1

LP gain the seat, with a vote just over half that of FG (by about 0.5%). A handful of GP transfers, and the FF surplus would have to favour FG 2:1 over LP for the latter to lose out. Not safe, but very probable in these circumstances.

RedC
FF 38% – 1
FG 43% – 2
LP 14%

Rather worse for LP… in this case LP would be transfer fodder for FG.
—————

Cork SC

L/MB
FF 20% – 1
FG 34% – 2
LP 37% – 2
GP 4%
SF 2%

Pretty straightforward, LP’s Paula Desmond gains at the expense of FF. Dan Boyle tweeting about life being sooooo unfair LOL!

RedC
FF 23% – 1
FG 36% – 2
LP 23% – 1
SF 8% – 1
GP 6%

Somewhat more surprising this one…. LP are still in the hunt, but a poor vote split (about 2:1) would see her fall 0.7% behind SF’s new recruit O’Leary, who would be elected on LP surplus and GP transfers. It is quite a soft SF gain however, and even if they fell back to 9% nationally, they’d probably lose this to LP. Still, they’ll take some heart from the idea that they’d even have a chance, and this could see O’Leary stay south of the river.
—————-

Cork SW

L/MB
FF 26%
FG 38%
LP 29%

1/1/1.

RedC
FF 28%
FG 39%
LP 21%
SF 7%
GP 5%

Again 1/1/1, this time LP depending on at least a third of SF/GP transfers to get a quota.
—————-

Donegal NE

L/MB
FF 35% – 1
FG 27% – 1
LP 18% – 1 (yes, I know…)
SF 12%

Quite a surprise, even if LP are 35% and SF 4% nationally. Or is it? LP went from nowhere here in 1989 to 11.34% in 1992, when they were 19.5% nationally. An equivilent vote on 35% would be 20% this time, and presumably Harte has brought some amount of a personal vote.

RedC
FF 35% – 1
FG 26% – 1
SF 21% – 1
LP 11%

Less surprising, SF taking a FF seat, and Harte doing slightly less well than Maloney did for LP in 1992. A run as Indo by McDaid could of course throw it all into confusion, of course….
————–

Donegal SW

L/MB
FF 35% – 1
FG 26% – 1
LP 21% – 1
SF 17%

As above for LP in Donegal. What odds Frank McBrearty as Minister for Justice? This shouldn’t surprise anyone who read this

RedC
FF 34% – 1
FG 25% – 1
SF 26% -1
LP 12%

Again, the national trends matter, as they are a composite of what is happening locally. LP need to be high 20s (and SF 6% or less) to be in with a shout here.

More at….

… and here…..

and final part here

Polar opposites

Well, 48 hours is a long time in polling. Red C has hit the newstands again, and this time, they show enough difference to Thursday’s Lansdowne/TV3 poll to establish that one of them is well out of kilter. I’ll being doing a cross-poll analysis tomorrow as promised elsewhere, so I’ll reserve analysis on that matter until then.

Tonight’s results are;

FF 24%
FG 31%
LP 23%
SF 10%
GP 3%
OTH 9%

I’ve just run the results through the spreadsheet, and they threw up the following outcome in seats;

FG 59
LP 44
FF 42
SF 12 (!)
GP 1
OTH 8

Very very different, and LP and SF aren’t just getting different ratings to Thursday’s poll, well outside normal variances, but going in opposite directions. LP are of course 12% down on Lansdowne (although still 2.3 times their 2007 vote), whereas SF go from oblivion to record heights in the blink of an eye.

Where does that leave the parties? Well, FF and FG in fairness are pretty much the same as Thursday, so unsurprised about their own performances. Kenny however will be delighted that LP appear to be back in their rightful place, fighting with FF over who is third. FF will also take some comfort at being neck and neck for the silver medal.

LP will be very disappointed, particularly after Thursday, despite this being a rating that would see them outperform every LP election result in the history of the State.

More tomorrow…..

TV3 Poll – 23/09/10

As you’re all aware, TV3 have published their Millward Brown/Lansdowne poll this evening, and the figures are great for Labour, so-so for FF, worrying for FG, and disastrous for SF and the GP.

The state of the parties (excluding 17% DKs) is as follows;
FF 22%
FG 30%
LP 35%
SF 4%
GP 2%
OTH 8%

I’ve put these figures into the spreadsheet, run each constituency, and come up with the following seat totals;
LP 67 (yes, 67)
FG 54
FF 39
SF 1
GP 0
OTH 5

The multiplicity of polls which may or may not be coming our way this week is confusing enough, but on these figures, Enda Kenny is no safer a man than Cowen, and may even be in greater trouble. The poor showing for both of their parties will cause much soul searching in their respective memberships, but Cowen will know, at least, that the Greens won’t be pulling the plug any time soon.

If these figures were repeated on polling day, it would be extremely difficult for FG to match LP on seats, and LP have to start thinking about candidate strategy pretty soon. Areas like Dublin South West and Dublin Central (in my simulation) saw LP lose out on a 3rd seat as a result of poor vote splitting (which would be inevitable if a candidate was added at the last minute).

FG should be unhappy with this poll. Having seen off Bruton (who is damaged goods now) Kenny now has to convince he people he’s up to the job of Taoiseach in challenging times, and this poll suggests that he’s not sealing the deal at the moment. Not alone are FG up about a tenth since the 2007 GE (compared to LP who are on 3.5 times their 2007 score), but Kenny barely rates over half Gilmore’s score on preferred Taoiseach (19% compared to 36%), and is even behind Mr None of the Above, who is the preferred choice of 20%. Cowen rates 11%, which must make depressing reading for him.

FF are pretty much where they’ve been in polls generally. A large percentage of the population believe he lost credibility over garglegate (71%), but that’s not as much as the non-FF vote. More interestingly, 59% of FF voters believe the same, and that may be what ultimately seals his fate. A majority of voters want Cowen to lose the FF leadership, (52/40), with Lenihen leading the only credible challenger Martin (46/15). 27% have no opinion, with Hanafin and Ahern at 4% and 2% respectively.

The GP would be looking at wipeout with these figures. To quote Frank Cluskey in the ’80s after a particularly bad poll for Labour, they are now in the margin of error. LP recovered on that occasion, to the extent of holding 12 seats the following GE on 6.4% of the vote, but it’s looking much grimmer for the GP now. LP had WP transfers to save them, and their vote was ‘lumpier’ than that of the Greens. Most Greens won’t be polling nearly enough to benefit from transfers from anyone.

SF similarly would see their vote well down on ’07, and would be out of the running in all but 5 constituencies, and would be unlikely to win more than 1 seat (in Cavan-Monaghan). With a 3% m.o.e., they will hope that this is just an unfortunate quirk that will be shown up by polls later this week (or night?)

A result like this would cause very testy negotiations for government, and it couldn’t be ruled out that FG would go into coalition with FF – Kenny as Taoiseach and new FF leader Brian Lenihen continuing as Finance Minister (all in The National Interest, of course…)

Right, that’s my initial reaction. I’ll be back with another post if MRBI is released this evening, and plan to do RedC on Saturday evening, and do a more in depth, cross-poll analysis on Sunday.

That’s if the missus doesn’t smash up my laptop before then!

Polls apart

Am just in from work and the TV3 poll is out (link posted by Paddy Matthews on the previous thread)

The headline figures are LP 35% (!), FG 30%, FF 22%, SF 4%, GP 2% and OTH 8%. As Paddy notes, the 101% total is probably a rounding, rather than a Quantum, issue!

I’ve a couple of family-related things to do, but hopefully will get a proper analysis done by 8-8:30 or so.

You wait ages for a decent poll…..

…. and then two come along together. MRBI poll being released probably Thurs evening for publication on Friday morning in the Irish Times, and RedC in SBP being published Sunday (probably released on Saturday evening).

It’ll be the first MRBI using the new methodology, and given the closeness of the the times they are being taken, it will be very interesting to see how close the two sets of results are.

Also of interest will be, given they are reputable companies, whether they ask voting intention in the event that Lenihen (or Martin) were leader of FF. Would also like to see what percentage would expect an immediate GE in the event of Cowen being replaced.

FWIW, I think this’ll be FF down, but not as much as people are expecting. Expect a flurry of political activity in the next few days as politicians try to influence the outcomes.

Party drink-in result

Readers will be aware of my views on Quantum ‘Research’ polls, and their inability to convince, even to the extent of being well above or below 100%.

This time, they’ve eliminated the “Don’t knows” of the figures they’ve “come to”, and carefully made sure that they come to 100%, so it’s pleasing to see that they are increasing their levels of professionalism. The polls are still clearly coming out with ‘findings’ that the paper’s owner wishes them to, though. A complete co-incidence, no doubt…..

Unsurprisingly, given they’ve been looking to replace Cowen for some time, there’s a poll on who should succeed him. There’s nothing on-line giving figures for whether he should go, which is just as well, as an MRBI poll is expected on Friday, and it will probably ask the same question. A figure showing low levels of support for a putsch would help Cowen, but if it was high, and followed by a more modest figure on Friday, it would look like Cowen was recovering.

So, who do they want as leader? 70% Lenihen, and 30% Martin.

Pardon me? 0% Coughlan, 0% Hanafin, 0% Ahern? I wouldn’t expect any of them to be in the top two, but not registering at all – 0% between the three of them? That’s clearly untrue. The question (if it was asked) could only have asked people to choose between Lenihen (a man who apparently is terminally ill), although the article linked reports that he is making himself available as leader) and Martin (who the Indo were pushing as a potential replacement earlier in the week). But what reputable company would limit this to two men when others have been mooted?

Laughably, it also shows a majority (55/45) in favour of the new man not having to call an election. Aside from the political damage caused by changing Taoiseach twice without recourse to a GE, the question is asked in a vacuum, in that some of those demanding an immediate election would presumably be influenced by the identity of the successful candidate. And a question like that which doesn’t have a “don’t know” option is again a nonsense – up to a third of voters cold be expected to “DK” on a question with as much uncertainties as that (i.e. IF Cowen stepped down, and WHOEVER the new leader was). This poll has a large margin of error anyway (about 5%, again assuming it actually took place, and was sampled perfectly), but given there are presumably DKs that the Sindo are hiding (sorry, excluding) the suggestion that the majority of the population would oppose an election isn’t even borne out by these, rather suspect figures.

FF will of course be heartened to discover Dr O’Reilly still wants a FF-nua, rather than FG, as the poll ‘finds’ that the 65% of the people feel that Simple’s tweet was wrong, despite “almost three quarters” (or, more accurately, over two-thirds) at 70% believe he was hung over. 30% don’t, although again, we’ve no idea how many have no opinion or are unsure.

Or a bright note, MRBI as I said are due a poll on Friday, or so I’ve heard, and this will be the first using their new methodology, and the first real poll since the FF Drink-in. So that’ll be something worth poring over.

Sex and Sin

The Irish Times released the results of a poll over the last two days regarding sexual and religious matters (appropriately over two instalments, a bit like a strip tease), and they make diverting, if less than earth-shattering reading. The survey was conducted by “Behaviour & Attitudes”, a company I confess to knowing very little of. Their Managing Director Ian McShane previously held the same position with MRBI, and they are a member of AIMRO and ESOMAR, with a background (from what I can tell) of conducting surveys more related to lifestyle and attitudes than what might normally be counted as ‘political’.

The first tranche of results showed that the public acceptance of same sex relationships continues to increase (or should we say opposition dies out). The poll, which was of a sample that was 96% heterosexual, showed 67% of those think gay couples should be allowed to marry, with only 25% opposed (and 8% DKs). A Lansdowne poll in October 2006 showed 51% of the population supporting gay marriage, with a further 33% supporting instead civil partnership legislation. That poll included people aged 15+, and the 15-17yo cadre were heavily in favour, so it would probably mean that slightly less than 50% of adults supported same-sex marriage just 4 years ago, so 67% demonstrates substantial momentum. The relatively low opposition also suggests that no major party will win the percentages game in opposing moves towards full equality in this area.

Of greater controversy, but still showing a positive trend (well, IMO), attitudes to adoption by same-sex couples seem to be softening. 46% believe it should be allowed, and 38% are against. It’s still quite close, and I can’t see a stampede from the parties to introduce change here, but there’s strong grounds for at least one of them to stop playing safe on this issue. Increasingly, people recognise that this is a matter of legal rights for children already being brought up by gay couples – adoption results, in the main, in additional duties for gay parents, not “rights”.

Perhaps surprisingly similar are the figures in favour of the rights of transexuals to change their birth certs (48/39), but most of the rest of day one contained pretty predictable results. Apparently, most ppl don’t think sex outside marriage is immoral (15/79), have nothing against gay people (5/91), will have more stable marriages if they shack up beforehand (57/25), but admire those who stay celibate before marriage (48/35), and think the teens should stay out of one another’s pants until they are 18 (61/28).

Of particular interest to parents is the matter of the differential approach to underage activity between them under the Irish law. When asked “In banning underage sex, the law now provides that boys can be prosecuted for having sex with girls under 17, even if consensually. Girls cannot however be prosecuted for having sex with underage boys. Do you believe the law is correct or incorrect?” 7% said “Yes” (presumably this was meant to mean correct) and 87% said no. Of course, there was no breakdown of those who’d change this by being less severe with the boys, and those who’d lock up the girls, but on balance it would appear that a large majority appear to hold more sensible views on this matter than is assumed in political circles.

Today’s instalment focused on morality and religion. The poll consisted of a sample that was 89% Catholic, with all other denominations being in the margin of error (are there really only 2.5% of the population who are atheists?!). They were either moderately or strongly religious, with 47% attending religious services at least monthly (35% weekly or daily). These Catholics seem to be quite out of step with their church’s theology, however, with heavy majorities in favour of married priests (87/10), and women priests (78/14).

Disappointing, there is no figure for those in favour of lesbian priests marrying, but taking both sets of polls, it would appear that there would have to be a majority of the population who are Catholics who are moderately or strongly religious, who believe that the marriage bar for priests should be lifted, and who believe that marriage should be open to same sex couples! If I was a tabloid editor, this would have been worked into a fantastic headline!

A question which perhaps gauges the nature of the liberal/religiosity of the sample is the support for banning the wearing of the burqa in “public places”. While the question helpfully describes what the burqa is, I personally doubt that more than 20% of the population had seen one that week, and so the 49/36 split may reflect unease with Islam, more than support for womens rights. This would appear to be supported by the age split – age categories of 35-44 and under all oppose a ban (18-24s most strongly at 38/51), whereas all older categories support a ban with the highest support being among 55-64s at 66/22 (12% DK’s), even higher than 65+s who were 56/21 (23% DK’s). This may be a result of the oldest correspondents thinking that catholic women should cover up more, but the larger DK figure suggests that a significantly higher percentage didn’t understand the question.

Rather more fun was the question asking what people considered serious sins. Given a list of 11 sins, they were asked to rate in terms of seriousness, and the poll revealed what percentage places them in the top three. Perjury (56%) and fraud (55%) topped the poll, but interestingly, drink driving (48%) and “significant” tax evasion (40%) make the top four, which I’ll wager wouldn’t have happened 20 years ago. Four of the bottom five are the only sexually related sins, including sexual infidelity (18%), unprotected casual sex (12%), watching porn (11%) and pre-marital sex (4%), with only illegally downloading music/films (4%) scoring a less derisory score. Clearly the internet generation were well represented in this survey, but I can imagine some people outraged by this

So, at the end of the day, we’re a pack of quite religious Catholics who also support the wife swapping sodomites (as long as they’re not Muslims).

Good to know, eh?

Fine Gael poll in Donegal SW

As mentioned by SFInbhear in politics.ie, The Donegal Democrat this week have an article which makes mention of an internal poll done for Fine Gael in advance of the Donegal South-West bye-election (whenever that may be held). I had a look at the paper today to see if there were more details than s/he posted, but there wasn’t.

The poll, if accurate (and that *is* a big if), is quite amazing, and particularly bad news for FG’s ambitions. Voters were asked who, among the likely FF, FG, LP and SF candidates they were likely to support, and it had FF neck and neck with SF, LP’s Frank McBrearty in 3^rd place, and FG in a disappointing (for them) fourth. Given the options didn’t include two independents who pull from the FG candidate Barry O’Neill’s area, he probably would be lower still in a real poll.

Without full figures, its hard to work out the result from this, but it suggests that McBrearty has gone from very long shot to genuine contender. If he out-polls FG, he can expect extremely high transfers from them, which may be likely to see him haul in SF’s Pearse Doherty, most of whose transfers might be expected to stay in the anti-Government pile. While a number of Donegal SF posters on p.ie have refered to him as a bit of a curmudgeon, his standing up to Garda corruption does appear to generate some admiration – sufficient, one presumes, to see him stay ahead of FF in their preferences.

To be still at the races, SF would need to be very close to 33% in first preferences to stay ahead of Labour (or FF would have to be a decent margin ahead of them, pushing the combined LP/FG vote down). If they’re not, the combined LP/FG vote would be expected to catch them. If, for example, FF are on 30%, SF on 28%, LP on 22% and FG at 20%, it would be game on. FG transfers, if they went one fifth each to FF and SF, and three fifths to LP, would see a second count of FF 34%, with both SF and LP on 32%.

A few ifs and buts there, but nothing compared to what faced McBrearty last Summer.

For FG it’s hard to see why they leaked the poll, although an un-named FG source seems to suggest to the Democrat that they may re-visit O’Neill’s candidacy, with a high profile candidate. But that’s unlikely to be a serious proposal. Whoever wins will be back on the trail a month or so later in a General Election (probably), and there’s only 1 FG seat (23% last time out, and lower now, going by this), which would most likely stay in Dinny McGinley’s mits. Even George Lee would baulk at that.

For FF, similarly, it’s not a great prospect. While the poll reportedly has them in first place, it suggests that they are ‘neck and neck’ with the Shinners in first preferences. Even SF might be expected to draw more transfers than a Govt candidate in a bye-election, but even this prospect is eclipsed by the prospect of a transfer friendly LP challenge with enough first preferences to make that count.

For SF, it would seem that they have a greater fight on their hands than I suspected. Indeed, if this trends, they may start planning ahead to the GE, when a vote in and around 25% will get them elected, without having to beg for transfers from voters who are antagonistic towards them.

And for McBrearty? Well, again, if it’s true, it’s remarkable. He came (in electoral terms) from nowhere to take a seat for LP in the locals, but this would be an achievement of altogether greater proportions. There is no shortage of political animals in Donegal, and the implications of this poll won’t be lost on them. Whatever McBrearty is, he’ll no longer be seen as a “wasted vote”, and that will be very positive for him, whether he pulls it off or not.

It also suggests that the national polling for LP isn’t just detecting a swing to them in Dublin. If this is the case here, one has to wonder how they are doing in places like Donegal North East, Roscommon, and Sligo.

Interesting times. Needless to say, if anyone out there has the full results, please let us know.

Quantum Engineering

So, the first poll to come out since I set up the blog, and as luck would have it, it’s a Sindo/Quantum ‘Research’ poll on Anglo. Oh dear….

Those who’ve noticed my views on Quantum in the past will know how much time I give their findings. Frankly, they produce figures that just aren’t credible. While SF have averaged 8%+ in the reputable RedC/MRBI surveys, they get 3% when Quantum come-a-asking. Even with the sample size of 500 they usually use, this is well outside the margin of error, which suggests one of three things; (1) There is a problem with their sampling methodology, (2) a flaw has suddenly arisen in the methodologies of both the major polling companies, who use samples of 1,000+ and have a proven track record, or (3) the results are made to order.

Reason #3 has been cited on more than one occasion, largely because the more ridiculous figures have co-incided with the known preferences of “Dr” O’Reilly. The Indo’s antipathy to SF is rarely shrouded in subtlety. There have been some such polls that appear to have been a (rather sad) attempt to persuade renegade FF and FG TDs to form a new party, or to get FF to replace Cowen with Lenihen as leader. Of course, asking people if they would support a new party, without setting out its policies, is going to massively over-state the potential of any such party, drawing support from those to the left and the right of any such new formation.

That previous Quantum poll tried to provide further support to this notion, when it stated “Quantum Research said: Interestingly, there is a five-point increase in the figure for ‘don’t knows’, going up from 22 per cent last year to 27 per cent this time round. This ties in with a lot of people’s anger with the current political system as a whole, and their refusal to countenance voting for anyone. Many of these people would also like to see the establishment of a new party.””. If there was a figure for the number of such people supporting such an development, they should have used it, but they didn’t, as they hadn’t asked that question. Instead, they make an un-supported assertion of very dubious value. It’s hard not to see the hand of their paymaster in this, and so I tend to treat their polls with suspicion.

So, today’s poll. Apparently, 73% of respondents believe that Anglo will bankrupt the country, and 72% believe it will bring down the Government (presumably pretty much the same people). This is quite similar to the figure, in their previous poll of how many voters think that State should end its commitment to the Bank (70%). Interestingly, the previous poll’s figures appear to have excluded “Don’t Knows”, whereas today’s figures include a (laughably low) figure for don’t knows.

On the “bankruptcy” question, 73% of the population said it would, 23% said no, and only 4% appear not to be sure on the matter. Really? Only 4%? One person in 25? All the rest have an opinion on whether it might bankrupt the State? Well I studied Economics at third level, and I’m, not sure. It’ll cost us a lot (everyone accepts that) but will it put the State in a position where it can’t meet it’s financial obligations? My wife who is educated to 4^th level in Politics doesn’t know either (I asked). But 96% of all voters do?  The veracity of this is stretched by the other question, on whether Anglo would bring down the Govt.  72% said yes, and 28% said no!  So, 0% “Don’t knows”?  That’s obviously impossible, at least 1% of the population don’t know what the Government is.  Perhaps they excluded don’t knows?  Perhaps, but why would they do that for this question, and not the other?

I don’t buy this.   25% don’t know which party they’d support in a General Election. I’ll bet 10% don’t know if they’d like to win the Lotto or not. There’s always a significant number of people who say “Don’t Know” in any survey, at least if it’s on a matter there is some dispute over. This very low figure suggests that, either (a) the figure was derived without using an actual survey at all, or (b) “Don’t knows” were pressed really hard to make a decision, perhaps by the questioner ‘dumbing down’ the question to something like “will it cost us a lot of money”, thereby making the question irrelevant (as we all know that it will). The only other possibility is that some questioners excluded don’t knows from their figures, but some of them didn’t.

Of course, Quantum have tied themselves up in knots before.  A previous Quantum poll in January 2009 famously showed 55% in favour of Lisbon, 37% against, and 15% undecided, a grand total of 107%!

So, The Sindo have paid Quantum for a poll, and Quantum have delivered one. 73% of the people think that Anglo will bankrupt us. Apparently. Or will crucify us. Or something.

Next, please!

EDIT : The next instalment in the Quantum story is at http://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/09/19/party-drink-in-results/

Making adjustments

School’s back, people have returned from their holidays, and soon we might even see the odd politician on the telly. Tomorrow sees the start of September, and the silly season (and dearth of real opinion polls) is coming to an end. Last year, MRBI published a poll in the first week of September, and it will be interesting to see whether they do this again this weekend.

This will be the first foray from MRBI since they announced that they’d be changing how they adjust their base figures. All companies do this to account for the differences in turnout of different party supporters, and, more importantly, the fact that “Don’t Knows” never split in the same proportion as those voters who, er, “Do Know”.

The MRBI method has been remarkably accurate over the years, and wouldn’t be amended now, if it weren’t for two things. Firstly, since Labour has taken off into the stratosphere (and FF sunk to a lower, darker, and hotter place), the degree to which this has happened has been greater in MRBI than in RedC, the other company with a reputation to maintain in this field. Given even the lesser swings have been dramatic enough, party hacks and loyalists antagonistic to this have derided the more spectacular change recorded in MRBI – interestingly in greater numbers among the FG supporters, on politics.ie at any rate. If Labour did get to within a couple of percentage points of FG on polling day, greater transfers from SF and OTHs would, most likely, see them eclipse FG as the first party win more seats than FF in a GE (well, since the 1920s).

When, at the turn of the year, Labour were at 24-25% in MRBI, there was a storm of people saying that the figures were nonsense, and RedC were the only one to believe, giving Gilmore’s crew 17%. By June of this year, there was a brief period where it looked like they had converged, with RedC moving LP up to the mid-20s, but then MRBI jumped up to 32% (29% before adjusted). RedC still trails this level of LP support, but at 27%, it still is well up on the MRBI figures previously cited as unreliable.

The other reason, and it at least depends on more than an exasperated cry of “that can’t be right!”, is that the adjustment ,while appropriate when FF were on 40% and LP on 10%, is no longer useful when LP are ahead by up to 10% on the raw figures (this argument at least doesn’t suggest that the pollsters are just asking the wrong people). Evidence cited for this is Labour’s (relatively) poor performance in the 2007 Local/Euro elections, polling 14-15%, compared to 23% in MRBI, and 18% in RedC.

Of course, non-Dail elections always return quite different results to opinion polls, as people see it as quite a different question. In the locals, many of the FF-to-LP swing voters stuck with the local man, or went for the Indo. In the Euros, LP got as many votes as it needed to elect it’s 3 serious candidates, with many other LP supporters switching to other candidates, particularly in Dublin, where De Rossa was safe, but they wanted to see FF lose their only seat. Certainly, I was tempted. There were others who voted for Joe Higgins, SF, or even Patricia McKenna in protest at Labour’s support for Lisbon – a big issue in the Euro-campaign, and something up to 40% of LP voters still had misgivings about. In a General Election, you don’t really have that luxury. You’re electing a Government, and in the current climate, it seems unlikely to me that many will be wasting their vote in an election as important as the next one, particularly if a handful of seats could be the difference between Kenny and Gilmore being Taoiseach. This point in particular is a narrative that FG strategists are not keen to see take wings.

The truth is that we’ll not know if LP can translate their opinion polling into reality until a GE is actually held. But it will be interesting to see what difference, if anything, the new MRBI adjustment will make to the differential with RedC. My own view is that it’s been a red herring, and the two companies results are closer than people suggest. Red C polls this year have averaged FF at 25%, FG at 33%, LP at 21%, SF at 8.5% and GP at 4.7%. MRBI in contrast have shown FF at 20%, FG at 31%, LP at 27%, SF 8.3% and GP on 3%. For all the hype, there’s not such a big difference, and if in reality FF were at 22-3%, FG 32%, LP 24%, SF on 8-9% and GP on 3-4%, the variances remain within the margin of error. The big issue is that, if LP are even marginally ahead of FG in one set of polls, the choice being between Kenny and Gilmore for Taoiseach will become a more accepted one, and that’s likely to move more voters into the labour column than FG.

We’ll not know the effect of the new adjustment until we have a post-summer poll from both organisations – a dip in support for LP in the MRBI could be based on the adjustment, but could also be based on them dipping from a previous high (quite likely during a Dail recess, given how much of their rise is apparently due to Gilmore’s performances), and a rise in FF could be a result of no politics as usual during the Summer months and disaffected voters drifting back home. My own view is that the change in that methodology won’t make a big difference, the big changes will come from the general drift – if LP were 29% on the raw figures last time, there’s little reason to believe that their likely performance among undecideds wouldn’t have pushed them over the 30% barrier, whatever the method used. Setting myself up for a fall, I think the next MRBI will show FF at around 21%, FG at 32%, and Labour on 25%. RedC may see FF about 25% and Labour around 23%, with FG no different to MRBI.

Still, we’ll see eh?

Labour poll in Dun Laoghaire

I’ve heard from a pretty good source that Labour ran a poll recently in Dun Laoghaire.  Only figures I heard were FF, which were 7% Andrews and 6% Hanafin (whatever the sample size that’s well within the margin of error, but good-ish news for Andrews, given the 2007 result).  If anyone reading has had sight of the overall results, please share!

13% for FF is pretty much the territory my spreadsheet was putting them, which is interesting (I had suspected that the swing away might be slightly less, given the social profile of the constituency).  It would leave them fighting for the last seat, but depending on a lot going right for them to avoid falling short.  A 50/50 split like that isn’t great for them, the 13% would be expected to drop to about 11.5% after transfer leakage (if lucky).  If the GP were about 4-5% (again hopeful), they could expect to be brought to about 13% on their transfers, and they could expect about 1.5% in SF transfers, pushing them to 14.5%.  Poor vote management by Gilmore could see them pick up about 2% in leaked transfers from there.  If that put them ahead of the second FG candidate (which it probably would),  Sean Barrett would be elected on other FG transfers, and there’d be a good 5-7% surplus at least going, and 2-3% of those going to FF would probably get them scrape the last seat (without reaching the quota).

The effect of this poll if true (and I assume if I’ve heard it, so has Hanafin) will be interesting.  This is a hard constituency to call.  Many would consider it FG heartland, and yet in 2002-2007 they held none of the 5 seats.  It’s had 2 left TDs before, at a time when the left vote nationally was significantly lower than current polls suggest, and some would suggest that with Cuffe, there were two of the current incumbents elected on a broad left platform.  PBP’s Richie Boyd Barrett makes it all even harder to call, given the irrelevance of the “Others” national total to many micro-parties’ fortunes.  Add to that 3 Ministers, all fighting for their political lives, including one who is considered a potential (if long-shot) chance of Taoiseach if there’s an anti-Cowen heave and Lenihen isn’t keen, add the loss of a seat in the revisions…

Very hard one to call, so it would be nice if anyone out there could share the full figures…..

poll of readers

June2010 RedC

Previously posted by me on politics.ie in June, following a Red C Poll with the following figures;

FF 24% NC.
FG 33% +3.
LAB 27% +5.
Greens 2% -3
SF 8% -2
Ind 6% -3.

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Welllll……

One of the reasons I was impatient for this poll was that I’d come up with a second (alternative) base for the swings, and was going to run both of them for the first time on an actual poll. The new base takes the ’07 figures, but adjusts for (a) regional swings, and, (b) some adjustment of the method of the base to account for a different LP swing where they come from a higher or lower base, which effectively ‘flattens’ a bit the uniform swing (using a swing of what % are NOT voting LP). In dry runs its shown a more similar pattern, on a constituency basis, than uniform swing, compared to the changed distribution in ’92 over ’89, which was the last time LP gained so much in a single GE.

In theory it should make very little difference to the overall number of TDs each part gets (and it doesn’t this time, re-assuringly enough), but gives a better idea where those gains will be.

Now ….. great poll for LP (best ever Red C and up 10% on what they appeared to be stuck on until recently – itself over two-thirds up on the last GE). Very high preference for Gilmore as Taoiseach (not just ‘approval’ rating’) means they’ll do well on Dks and also on transfers.

FG, while they’ll be relieved, are pretty much what I predicted – the Oscar Wilde maxim, and Kenny finally looking like a leader (although, as I said before, I think he’s not bad behind the scenes – I did say they’d regret it if they replaced him with RB). If they can knit a decent FB together, they are probably over the worst of it -a decent poll like this means that if there are any who still resent him (well there are I’m sure) they are utterly outflanked. The Shinners continue to pop between 6-10%, and 8% I have to say looks about right to me.

FF will shrug and say “nothing to see here” and effectively they are right. But the GP will be shocked. They’ve been rock solid at 5-6% in all RedC polls forever now. Could be a once off, given the margin of error, but still, they’ll be nervous in the extreme until another poll puts them in 4-5% territory. Certainly, they’ll not be pulling the plug any time soon.

Finally, of interest is a very poor showing by “Others”. Again, hard to say why, but maybe the talk of Gilmore as a possible Taoiseach is drawing votes from ‘protest’ candidates, where they may be seen as wasted, to the LP column.

So what are the spreadsheets saying? First figure is uniform swing from 07, second is swing from the adjusted figures based on regional swings etc, you can choose which suits your prejudices, but both are very close.

FG 62 or 56
LP 52 or 58
FF 43 or 43
SF 5 or 7
GP 0 or, eh, 0
OTH 4 or 2

As you can see, there’s a net 6 seat gain for LP over FG based on adjusting for regional swings and ‘flattening’ the swing, which would nudge LP ahead (although the number of seats going back and forward between the two methods is much more). I prefer to keep with the old method, which is the uniform swing method, as it is ‘purer’ (and therefore less open to human error) but there’s certainly much for LP to consider here. Even in the latter figures, there are 8-10 seats where a less pessimistic transfer rate would see them pull in seats (they don’t include Roscommon in either, for example, despite the addition fo a high profile candidate with a good electoral record). There are, however 62 seats they would win in either one or the other method.

So what would the implications be if something like this panned out? Well, the pretty obvious one is that FG and LP are neck and neck for seats, (FG slightly ahead) with FF a poor 3rd. If this became evident over the course of the election, one could see FF hit even harder, as the choice would no longer be between them and FG, but FG and LP, and one assumes that a number of those who want Gilmore to be Taoiseach are currently in the FF column). Another thing is that, on these figures, a left-led govt is not possible (unlike the MRBI one), given the more modest SF performance, and collapse of the GP and OTH vote.

Of course, it’s just one poll. What matters is the trend. Not long ago, we were being told that MRBI polls were ‘meaningless’ because they gave LP 24% after the adjustment, and Red C, giving LP 17%, were spot on. Now Red C are saying 27% (MRBI 32%) and the argument is how close they and FG are, and who is nudging ahead of who, with FF (currently) being in third place a foregone conclusion.

Right. Make of that what you will. I’m off to put the kids to bed, open a bottle of a Sicilian Red, and watch the second half of the Footy. See you when I’ve a few glasses under my belt!

———————-

NB – Since then I’ve honed the adjusted spreadsheet a bit more, and the overall results come out even closer to the ‘brute force’ uniform swing method while at the same time coming a lot closer to plausible local results, so I’ll be using that most of the time going forward.  Dotski 22/08/10

Welcome to Irish Polling Report

Dotski here.  If you’ve found this blog, you’re probably a regular on politics.ie.  I’ve been known to post there a bit, particularly following Irish opinion polls, when I crunch the figures through my trusty spreadsheet.  While I’ll keep posting there, it occurred to me during the recent (2010) UK General Election that a dedicated site for discussion of polls (as opposed to slagging off each other’s parties), along the lines of the excellent UK Polling Report,  would be a good thing.  So rather than wait for someone else to do it, I thought I would myself.

While I’ll be running the spreadsheet simulations to calculate the number of seats each party is likely to win based on each reputable poll, I’ll also be interested in any ‘internal polls’ that people get their hands on, so if any readers get their hands on these, please let me know, and we can consider the implications they’d have in that constituency if true, and what sort of national figures they would be consistent with.   While many of these are notoriously unreliable, so is 99% of the internet, and unlike most of that they can be quite fun!  And genuine ones, in fairness, often are interesting in that they can indicate what parties are likely to do in terms of candidate strategy, particularly when national polls are indicating figures very different to any previous General Election (I write this in August 2010).

So what are the rules for anyone wishing to post?  Well, no political point scoring.  Politics.ie is a perfectly good enough a place for that.  The idea of this space is proper analysis of polls.  Also, play the ball, not the poster.  If you think someone has made a crazy extrapolation, say why, don’t say it’s because they are clinically insane (even if you know it’s true.  Actually, especially then).

I’ve no idea yet if this will be read by many (edit: 6 weeks on it is, which is much appreciated!), but I would hope that, particularly as we approach the next election, this will be a useful place for people trying to work out what will happen in what promises to be the most interesting – and unpredictable – Irish election since the 1940s.  You can post anonymously, but if you’re a politics.ie regular it’d be nice if you used that name here.  If you’d like to contact me, you can get me at irishpollingreport@gmail.com

While there’s an archive of posts on the right hand side, you might be interested in the following posts/threads;

My most recent constituency-by-constituency analysis based on national polls

Analysis of constituency polls in Dublin SE Donegal SW, Cork SC, Cork NW, and Dun Laoghaire

There also stuff in there specifically on the relative merits of the polling companies, notably the RedC/ MRBI and Landsowne discrepancy, and somewhat odd aspects of Quantum Research’s work.

And for those who just think the polls must be wrong, because there will always be ‘local factors’ and rural issues that make big changes impossible, you may find this interesting.

So, in summary, I hope you enjoy the posts, that anyone who can will share interesting analysis and information, and spread the word!

Dotski.